Monday Forecast Update

82 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)…
A broad ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US with New England in the northern part of this ridge during the work week. There will be high pressure areas at the surface both to our south and our north. The boundary between these will waver around and find its way south of the region on Tuesday and again about Friday, with those 2 days being relatively cooler than the other days, which will feature some late Summer heat. We’ll have to watch for a few thunderstorms later Thursday as the boundary approaches from the north for the second pass.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from near 80 immediate shore to around 90 elsewhere. Wind W up to 10 MPH except for some light sea breezes near the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s immediate coast, 80s interior. Wind light N to NE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 80-86 coast, 86-93 interior. Wind light W with sea breezes.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible northern areas late day or early night. Lows in the 60s. Highs 82-93, coolest Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod and immediate coast, 80s elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)…
Labor Day Weekend September 5-7 looks very warm and rain-free at this time. Slow-moving cold front may bring clouds and some wet weather later on September 8 into September 9, depending on its timing.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)…
Drier and a little cooler early in the period, followed by a warming trend again. A few showers by late in the period.

82 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  2. From BB:
    Looking way ahead, the upper air ridge to the west is progged to collapse so a sprawling area of high pressure and delightful air will stream in from the Great Lakes the second half of next week. That’s sticking my neck out pretty far but it looks plausible at this time.

    1. That would be good, the school building ….. especially the hallways are quite stuffy. The window unit A/C is holding the fort in the classrooms.

  3. Thanks, TK!

    Looks like summer isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

    I don’t know if there are any tennis fans out there, but today starts the U.S. Open. My husband and I really enjoy watching tennis. The first 2 or 3 yrs. of our marriage we played a little tennis w/each other. I would serve a ball to my husband and he would miss it; he would serve back and I would miss it. Kind of funny – but we enjoyed it at the time. 🙂

  7. Thanks TK.
    Only thing to really watch this week here is that thunderstorm chance Thursday.
    6z GFS for Thursday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=090&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  8. 6z NAM is usual the most aggressive.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

      1. Looking at the 6z runs of the American models with the instability being shown it looks more like July and
        August. With that said you can get strong to severe storms in September if things lineup. With that said
        I don’t see that happening Thursday but will watch it.

        1. Perhaps, but I don’t ever recall seeing severe weather
          in September, except associated with a Hurricane.

          Unless there is some rare set up, severe season is over for us.

          1. Back in September 2012 the SPC had placed NYC area and western parts of SNE in moderate risk.
            It was one of those situations where there was a lot of wind shear. In fact there were four tornado
            warnings that day in CT. There was not a touch down here in CT that day but just north of NYC
            there was a confirmed EF 1 tornado.
            Then of course in October 1979 here in CT we had the F4 Windsor Locks tornado.
            I don’t think of September and October as months for severe weather here in SNE unless you get
            the right setup.

            1. exactly. It’s not unless there is something
              unusual. Can never say never, but generally speaking, severe is done.
              Sure it can happen under the exact right
              set up as you say.

              Thanks

  9. Thanks Tk. Weekend sounds good as it’s a four day one for me maybe five. How would you describe very warm this weekend as I’m hearing low 80s for the coast with a sea breeze . Thanks again.

  13. We need rain. TK has been on the money in his forecasts of continued dry to abnormally dry conditions. It is abnormally dry almost everywhere I go in Southern New England. Not completely parched, but after this week it will be.

  15. Where is this hot day today that was advertised by many mets. I’m iut in the field and have not broke s sweat yet. Constant breeze as well.

  16. Where is this hot day today that was advertised by many mets. I’m iut in the field and have not broke s sweat yet. Constant breeze as well.

    1. The breeze does help but sill 85 here with a dp of 66 as of 11:15am. Considering the lack of real heat this summer (well into the 90s) today feels pretty warm to me.

  17. 12z NAM down some with instablity for Thursday. Still more than enough for thunderstorm development. Thursday looks to be the day this week if were going to see any precipitation and even that is not a guarantee and don’t expect a lot.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  18. Didn’t think it would get really hot this week, especially at the coast. It’s a warm first week of September, but I wouldn’t call it hot. Evenings and early mornings do not feel tropical, and hardly ever do this late in the season even if it’s hot during the day. I don’t think Boston will hit 90 in September, but it may get close. Surrounding suburbs will likely hit 90 or above at least once and possible twice or more in September.

  21. The sun doesn’t have much power anymore, or nearly what it had 2 months ago, I can tell this time of year working on it everyday all day 🙂

    1. ah ha – now I know why sometimes I cannot understand your comments. You work on the sun. Phew…I thought it was just me. 😀

  22. Last September started out on the very warm side and a repeat looks to happen this September. Summer never goes quietly and always attempts to make one last stand.

  23. No deal can be reached and the judge will decide as early as tomorrow no later than Friday on Brady’s fate.

    1. Thanks SSK – I hadn’t seen that. I’m afraid he will be forced to side with NFL and that the majority of folks in this country will not comprehend that it is not a ruling against Brady but only a ruling that the NFL followed procedure. Either way, we may see years of this as I think either side may appeal.

        1. It will be tough based on the Garvey decision. Our highest court ruled…it may be “improvident or even silly,” it does “not provide a basis for a court to refuse to enforce the award.” Even when the federal judge considering the arbitration award is “convinced that the arbitrator committed serious error, it does not suffice to overturn [the arbitrator’s] decision.”

          However, if he doesn’t vacate, he sets the standard for no arbitration to be vacated. Tough decision

  24. This thing is far from over and whatever side loses will appeal. I am sick of the story as I have commented before and I want it to be over and lets start to talking about the upcoming season which starts in a week and a half.

    1. Brady should appeal. The NFL needs to go away. I totally agree JJ. I’m sick of it also but will fight to the end to not see someone accused unfairly.

        1. It might, but the NFL is GIGANTIC, it will come to kids signing there life’s away at 22 yrs old, and they will. These NFL players will run through death for there coaches, and to play in the NFL. There are so many that want to bring the NFL down. It’s just so entrenched into the American culture. 🙂

          1. Yep nothing like the American culture disliking horrendous results from head trauma. Shame on americans.

            1. I dislike the head trauma but there’s not much more they can do short of 2 hand touch. Like I said, and I believe it’s also in the works, a letter of agreement that it’s a contact and aggressive sport, and a signature will be needed, it may happen in soccer too, but that’s a different story for a different day. 🙂

        2. My uncle was sat to be drafted. He had too many hits to the head And just before he could be drafted his mind went. He spent the rest of his life in a state hospital. I know I have said this before. However, that was in the 1930s maybe 40s. Nothing has changed.

          1. I have 2 cousins and an uncle that was in the draft, they say it’s a contact sport, most of these football players want money when there career is over. However the NFL has the best helmets, and even have better helmets in the works. These guys are bigger faster stronger. In the 30’s and 40’s, they had leather helmets so it was much much different back then. 🙂

            1. My wife works with people with head trauma. A good friend of her’s works with former NFL players who have head trauma, etc. It’s a very sad situation and getting worse. Just look at Junior Seau.

              The NFL is trying but they fully realize that if they take the violence (and I don’t mean fights, etc) out of football then the fan base will wither away It could catch up with them however down the road with lawsuits when attorney’s realize they could be in for a big fat pay day.

            2. AFAIC the decade doesn’t really matter. The head is still at risk. My grandfather played HS football in the 1920s and he did develop alzheimers years later in the 1980s.

            4. Wait. I reread your commenr. I sure as heck hope you were not implying anyone is using head injury to get money when their career is over

  25. I agree Brady will appeal if he needs to.
    Patriots first four games Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Buffalo and Dallas. 3 of those games will not be easy. The Jacksonville game should be easy. I see Patriots 2-2 after four games.

  26. 12z GFS for Thursday
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  27. On the 57 bus to watertown to
    Pick up car that would not start.
    They said it was the break pedal
    Switch. We shall see

  28. I love evenings around this time of year, temp is comfortable, perfect for football practices. 🙂

      1. Early season football is always in the 80’s, but by late season (late October/November) nice cool days and nights. 🙂

      2. You should have seen it when I assistanted coaching in Texas for 2 yrs, it would be 95 degrees at 6pm, just drink lots of water. These kids 13-14 yrs old were tough as nails, and it was like a boot camp, they legitimately loved it, and the facilities were top notch, every 20 yrs the big oil companies would give a millions of dollars to a lot of these high schools to have new everything with top notch equipment. Cooling fans, air conditioned where ever you went, and fields like we don’t see up here. We work with what we got here, it’s still fun. 🙂

      3. As is Apple picking. I have yearly pics of Apple picking when kids were little. With rare exception they wore light jackets.

  31. Brief cool-down Friday, and I do mean brief. Weekend starts with a cool Saturday morning then the heat builds back in, and this will include Monday.

    Above normal temperatures in the long term, though another brief cool-down is possible around September 10-11.

  32. Tk what’s the latest for Thursday? Models are hinting at a fairly widespread showers storms moving west to east across the area. You concur?

  33. Last week my family went to the cape. Went to several locations. We went to Chatham, P town and went to Plymouth. We went biking. I went to skaket beach…. went to some of the beaches on the south facing beaches of the cape and when we went to race point beach. There was no purple flags ( shark warning) so we were able to swim. It was cold but it was worth it as it was hot out. Also…. with out even knowing a pod of minki whales swam right up the beach. They went right up to the beach maybe 20 to 30 feet out basically where I was catching waves surfing. It was one of the memories I will probably have for a long time.

  34. The next 2 Drought Monitor updates will show a drastic increase in the abnormally dry area and may re-introduce drought to parts of the region that are currently in abnormally dry classification.

  35. It is a perfect week overall for vacation which we have. Heading up to NH for 3 nights near Story Land. Our boys are the perfect age for it. Pictures to come on FB. Hoping everyone is dong well. NOW ON TO “FOOTBALL#

    I sure hope Brady wins the case and we can be over this. The NFL is being stubborn bc they believe no matter what. Brady should lose bc of article 46. I just want it done so we can focus on the season.

    Redskins sure are making headline with the whole RGIII situation. They named Kirk Cousins the starter, which I am happy about bc he just played better in pre season.

  36. These smoky red sunrises and sunsets lately have been great !

    On my way into school, I noticed the flags showing a light wind off of the ocean already. That’s good, because its a pretty warm start.

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