Tuesday Forecast Update

81 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)…
September has arrived. No major changes to the forecast posted yesterday but just some fine-tuning. First front pushing south of the region today takes the edge off yesterday’s heat, especially near the coast. The heat makes a resurgence tomorrow but gets cut back again later Thursday and Friday with a second high pressure area building north of the region. This high will then sink down over the area by the start of the Labor Day Weekend with fabulous weather.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s immediate coast, 80s interior. Wind light N to NE.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod. wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs 82-93, coolest Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-63. Highs 70s Cape Cod and coastal areas, 80-85 well inland.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)…
Dry weather and warmer to hotter remainder of Labor Day Weekend September 6-7. Slow-moving cold front may bring clouds and some wet weather later on September 8 into September 9, depending on its timing. Fair and mild September 10.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)…
Dry and warming early to mid period. Risk of showers later in the period with above normal temperatures.

81 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  5. Thanks TK
    Happy September 1st everyone. Feels more like July or August 1st than September 1st. I am not counting on see too much rain Thursday. NAM as usual more aggressive with instability than GFS.

      1. Although SREF shows decent instability for Thursday, it does not,however, show anything at all in the way of severe
        parameters.

  8. Today may be the first day of Meteorological Fall but 22 days from now (Sept. 23) will be the “real” fall. The Astrological dates in any season are much more accurate.

    I would say the first frost of the season will not be happening any time soon given our current pattern. We are going to be in HHH for the long term I am afraid. 🙁

    1. Sounds good Philip and let’s hope that warm air can go for awhile giving us a warm winter with minimal snow . I can hope for that right

      1. You got a good chance of that happening since the Almanac is predicting a cold snowy winter and we usually get
        the opposite.
        You look at the Almanac’s map it is far off from what it should be with a strong el nino.

  9. Dave not impressed with thunderstorm threat for Thursday either. I think right now at worse an isolated and I mean isolated strong storm.
    The bigger weather stories here are the heat and rainfall deficits which continue to grow.

  10. This summer went by way to darn quick. I know summer does not truly end until sept 21st but for college students and kids it ends when school starts basically. I have one more week until classes start but I sadly work till then. Summer should be like 4 or 5 months long skip spring 😛

  11. Matt I agree with you how weather could snap. We saw that last winter when Boston had 5.5 inches of snow on January 24th to end the season with the snowiest winter on record.
    My issue with the Farmers’ Almanac is the outlook for the winter is not what you find with a strong el nino. They use a so called secret formula which to me is not the way to go to make long range forecasts. Its nothing more than throwing darts and trying to hit a bullseye. They are not 80% accurate and are more right than wrong. Its more like 10 – 20% accurate. Yes they do get some things right but if you make enough predictions you are going to be right every once in a while.
    If there right with this winter which I hope being a big snow lover they are it was a lucky guess.

      1. Awe shucks, I didn’t know that. 😀
        Still, I expected it to be a tad cooler. Either way, it’s really
        nice.

  16. Here is the instability being shown 0z time frame from the 12z run of the NAM for Thursday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  17. If the prospect of very little rainfall comes to fruition, the usual lawn recovery will be slow to happen. Mine had started coming back but is now showing signs of stress again.

    1. If your watering on a normal schedule, the lawns are already fully recovered. If your not watering then your lawn will lag way way behind

  18. Had to drive into the Boston hospitals today, what a bleep show that area is between the traffic and bad drivers, construction, bicycles and pedestrians. I’m shocked more people aren’t killed on a daily basis.

    1. I’ve seen to bycyvlist get hit by a car just last Thursday, bikes should be on bike paths, uv even seen a group of bycyvlist crash into each other. Vehicles and bikes don’t mix, bikes belongs on bike paths, until then there will continue to be deaths

    2. Which area? IMO, Mass General is the absolute worst.
      BI isn’t bad and the Brigham isn’t too bad. Children’s is bad.
      NEMC is brutal as well.

    3. It is one reason we opt for Mac’s treatment at Dana Milford. Our BP levels go up every time we head to Boston.

      BWH is the absolute worst for parking. We need valet for Mac. However, if they get the least bit backed up, they just stop valet. It can take 20-30 minutes to get from Brookline Ave to either valet area. It was a real kick when Mac had to use a wheel chair, they said they would not park us, I explained we had the wheelchair and they said to just go around again (30 more minutes) and see if they could park us then.

      That said and far, far more important, I hope all is ok Ace.

    4. Ace, I just read your comment to Mac and he said it makes him feel better to hear a younger person is frustrated with the mess in there also.

      1. All is good Vicki. It was actually a visit to the area for a good reason. I’ll leave it at that, for now 😀

  20. Thanks, TK. Your forecasts are very good. You’ve been repeating the dryer than normal mantra and it’s been dryer than normal. Lots of stressed out grass, but also shrubbery and small trees. Leaves look droopy, sad, and discolored.

    Philip, as you said, it’s relatively warm now. But, I don’t think this in any way impacts the date of our first frost. We never have frost in September (at least not at the coast), and if we get it in October it’s usually late October (ah, the smell of jack-o-lanterns on a cold Halloween evening). We could very easily have frost in late October this year. All it takes is a shot of cold air. I think Boston averages early November for its first frost, and I don’t think this year will be any different in that regard.

    JJ: Agree that the Almanac is off and up to its “secret” antics. Nevertheless, in el nino years we can still have plenty of cold air shots and snowstorms. My initial guess – and this is coming from a total amateur who’s wrong half the time or more – is that your part of NE winds up with some major snowstorms while we wind up at the coast with lots of kitchen sink mess, followed by glaze and ice as the wake of the storms the lows drag in very cold air sitting to our north.

  21. I’m sorry to hear about your parking issues in the hospital district. It’s bad there, I agree. I try to avoid parking in the district when I have to get books at the Harvard Countway Library. I park on Brookline Ave. in Brookline and walk to Countway. But, I’m lucky that I can walk. For patients who can’t walk, or are just recovering from treatment, and also for visitors, the lack of decent parking is really disgraceful.

  22. My father stopped going there strictly because of that am, one time we got trapped in a parking garage for 3 hours due to electricity going out, it’s truly like a 3rd world country around there.

  23. Quick baseball note: If this De Aza trade is Dombrowski’s first move it’s a really bad one. De Aza is a very good 4th outfielder. I like his approach, his style of hitting, his hustle. They traded him (and are paying him the rest of the season) for nothing – a single A leftie with an ERA over 6. What! There’s so much deadweight they can jettison: From Allen Craig to Breslow to Sandoval to Ramirez. Eat their contracts, get rid of them. Build a team around hard-working, young players.

  24. The problem with almanac forecasts (and I include all of them, not just singling any one out) is this:

    They don’t take important parameters into account at all beyond what is predicted for some of them a few months in advance. They may know what solar cycle we’ll be in, or what phase the PDO is in, and at least reasonably accurately be able to predict the status of ENSO, but they will be lost on details and omit several other major driving forces from consideration. This renders those forecasts largely unusable and makes them accurate perhaps 25% of the time, with a good part of that 25% just being due to guessing “right just enough” to be “just right enough”.

  25. Joshua Gil Simmons who is meteorologist here in CT said in regards to upcoming winter thinks were going to see some icing events in New England this winter.
    In regards to the Almanac if there right for this winter good for them. They got lucky.

    1. I can see some icing being an issue because there is a decent chance a cold reservoir of air in low levels will be available to pull down from eastern Canada while the overall upper pattern is milder than normal. That sets up possible icing events if moisture times correctly with the cold surface and mild upper air.

    1. Goin’ down fast! I know that’s a reality this time of year and it’s fine with me but I still enjoy the fact that Summer isn’t quite done yet.

      Still not seeing any leaf color up here which is unusual. I always see patches by late August. I suspect it will show up in early patches by the end of this week despite the warmth.

  27. Heading up the coast to Salisbury today, Hampton tomorrow, a home evening Thursday, Gloucester Friday, Boston Saturday, Maine & NH coast Sunday. Great Summer weather to be enjoyed yet!

  28. Friday and Saturday look to be beautiful days with highs of 75-80, and nights in the low and mid 50’s. That is perfect weather IMO 🙂

  29. I was just looking up census projections that just came in my email, and if they go as there thinking boston will fall from #28th largest currently 2015, to #45th largest in 2030, and #53rd largest in 2040. At one time boston was the #3rd largest back in the 1920’s. Interesting

      1. That where we disagree, we lose power as a state over time with no growth, and give it to the rest of the country, but I know from moving back in 04, not many care :/

    1. Wow. High for there. Back in the Stone Age when we used to drive up….yep drive in our Fred flintstone cars…we wore heavier jackets. Fishing in rangley also required jackets as many mornings began quite cold. I remember a few in the 30s. Thanks Tom.

      1. I remember an August trip to the summit many moons ago also where it was in the mid-upper 40s with a decent wind.

          1. Feels good to be home after working a 16hr shift . Going to be a hot one tomorrow they say. If I’m not mistaking I think this Labor Day weekend being defiantly a beach/ pool weekend has been the first in awhile I think.

            1. Glad that shift is over for you John. Without looking back, I seem to think last year’s Labor Day weekend was mild, perhaps 70s as I don’t remember it being hot while camping.

              1. And of course, looking back, the first 5 days of last September were 80s and low 90s, so, there goes that mild theory 🙂

              2. This weekend last I heard will be hot I think . When was the last Labor Day weekend with projected temps in the middle to high 80s or 90

              3. This weekend last I heard will be hot I think . When was the last Labor Day weekend with projected temps in the middle to high 80s or 90

  31. According to Pete, we lose the most daylight in the months of September and October with the least daylight lost in December.

  32. Is it my imagination, or does Pete Bouchard have more hair than he did? Looks like he had a transplant or something.

  33. I don’t usually watch media or local news, but as I was switching through stations, I saw mr. Bouchard said 60’s at the coast Friday?? Wow!!!

  34. There is a super moon eclipse Sept 27. But goes from 9:07 to full at 11:11 (a number that’s always given me the creeps although I have no idea why). It is late for grandkids school night 🙁

    1. Thank you for this, Vicki. It is my sister’s birthday and she will love this info.

      11 am on 11/11/ 1918 was the Armistice ending WWI. A stupidly horrible war and a worse peace. Maybe that is why you do not go for 11:11!

      1. Interesting about those numbers. Thanks. I can be very mildly superstitius but of all things that number gives me chills. And happy birthday to your sister!

  35. Reddest sunrise of the bunch so far. And seems like the most smoky morning so far too. I don’t think I’m seeing fog, I think its really very hazy or smoky.

      1. Wow, that is cool. Do you think this is from the Pacific Northwest? It also explains why not to follow “red sun in morning….” guidance

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