Monday Forecast Update

97 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)…
No changes to the forecast at this time. High pressure dominates as does September heat through Wednesday. Cold front brings a chance of showers/thunderstorms Thursday into Friday before drier and slightly cooler air arrives.
TODAY – LABOR DAY: Sunny. Highs 80-85 South Coast, 86-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-72, warmest urban areas. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-95, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-95, coolest South Coast.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Highs in the 80s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers mainly morning. Lows 60-66. Highs 75-83.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)…
Dry September 12. A few showers September 13. Dry September 14-16. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)…
Very warm with fair weather early period, showers mid period, fair and slightly cooler late period.

97 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  1. Thank you TK. Will be another beautiful day although we certainly need rain. We were by the Cambridge reservoir, which I always thought was lincoln reservoir, on Saturday and it is as low as I’ve seen it

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Yes, Vicki, the water deficit is not good. To see how bad it is, grab a hold of a branch (maple or oak tree) and shake it (doesn’t need to be that vigorous), observe what happens. You’ll see plenty of green leaves fall to the ground. The leaves are stressed to the breaking point.

    1. As we drove through the surrounding towns both Saturday (to our east) and yesterday (to our SW), we noticed what we thought was an unusual Number of green leaves on the ground. Thank you, Joshua, that makes sense. Between the winter moth damage to the trees in the spring and the lack of rain, I’m not sure what folliage season will be like

  6. Article in Financial Times (I see that it was hard to download, so I cut and pasted it)

    Disagreements over environment stem from different ethical stances (Martin Rees)

    Our earth is 45m centuries old, but this century is special. It is the first century when the collective actions of one species — ours — can determine the fate of the entire biosphere. That is because the world’s population is rising — towards 9bn by mid-century — and because we are all more demanding of energy and resources and hugely more empowered by technology.

    Throughout past centuries, we have been vulnerable to natural threats, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. But there is one reassuring thing about such threats: their annual probability is not changing much — it was much the same for the Neanderthals more than 40,000 years ago.

    By contrast, we are now deep into the Anthropocene — the period in which human activities can ravage the earth’s ecosystems. The pressures of a growing human population and economy, on land and on water, are already high. Humans appropriate a growing fraction of the world’s biomass, with drastic ecological consequences. Extinction rates of plants and animals are rising. If too much fossil fuel is burnt in coming decades the rise in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could trigger irreversible long-term changes. These are the issues that demand our attention ahead of the UN conference in Paris in December that will seek a global agreement on climate change.

    When scientists investigate facts, they must be as objective as possible. But when they debate the economic, social and ethical aspects of any issue, they speak as concerned citizens and not as experts. There are indeed real uncertainties in climate science. But present disagreements about climate policy stem less from differences about the science than from different ethical stances — in particular, in the degree of obligation we should feel towards future generations.

    Those who assess the impact of climate change by applying a standard discount rate to estimates of future costs are in effect writing off whatever happens beyond 2050. Scientists would agree that there is indeed little risk of catastrophe within that time-horizon, so unsurprisingly such analysis concludes that tackling climate change deserves a low priority compared with other public policy aims. But the grandchildren of today’s young adults could live through several decades of the 22nd century. Anyone who cares about those generations will deem it worth making an investment now to protect them from the worst-case scenarios.

    Suppose astronomers had tracked an asteroid and calculated that it would hit Earth in 2080, 65 years from now — not with certainty, but with, say, 10 per cent probability. Would we relax, seeing it as a problem to be set on one side for 50 years? I do not think we would. There would surely be a consensus that we do our damnedest to find ways to deflect it, or to mitigate its effects. By contrast, our governments respond with torpor to the climate threat, as concerns about future generations slip down the agenda.

    The task of weaning the world away from dependence on fossil fuels is indeed daunting. Renewable energy is expensive to generate. Power from the sun and wind is intermittent. Fortunately, technology in solar energy and batteries is proceeding apace — but needs to accelerate further.

    When the Americans embarked on the Apollo project to land people on the moon, they succeeded within a decade because they devoted huge resources to it. We need a similar big commitment to generate and store clean energy, bringing down its costs. Unlike the original Apollo programme (which was fuelled by superpower rivalry with the Soviet Union) this should be a co-operative venture where all major countries step up their efforts.

    Research on energy is currently on a far smaller scale than medical research — but it is just as crucial for the world. The faster it proceeds, the sooner will the power from renewables become as cheap as coal-fired power stations.

    It would also be far better if clean energy could be made affordable to less developed countries before they invest in more generating capacity. Such countries — and the people who have contributed the least to climate change — stand to lose the most because of it.

    Heat stress will most hurt those without air conditioning, crop failure will most affect those who already struggle to afford food, extreme weather events will most endanger those whose homes are fragile. Another ethical issue concerns the non-human environment. Climate change is aggravating a collapse in biodiversity that could eventually be comparable to the five mass extinction events in Earth’s history. We are destroying the book of life before we have read it. To quote the great ecologist EO Wilson, if our despoliation of nature causes mass extinctions, “it is the action that future generations will least forgive us for”.

    To design wise policies, we need all the efforts of scientists, economists and technologists, and the best knowledge that the 21st century can offer. But to implement them successfully, we need the full commitment of political leaders and the full support of the voting public. As Pope Francis’s Encyclical on environmental issues proclaims, our responsibility — to our children, to the poorest, to steward the diversity and richness of life on earth — surely demands nothing less.

    1. OUTSTANDING! and thank you for sharing. Very well stated.

      I am afraid there are too many in the NONE or Very low end of obligation we should feel towards future generations.

      If it isn’t going to affect me in my lifetime, F everyone else!!!!!

    3. Very well and nicely written, and I don’t take this as disrespectful, I wouldn’t want to live in Europe, and don’t like there philosophy’s. I’m an American, born and raised. Not going to put all kinds of money and resources towards something we know very little about. I think this is where most stand, maybe this state is a little different compared to the rest of America. At the same time this state loses power everyday to other states. Again don’t take any of this disrespectful. Just my opinion, except for Massachusetts losing power, bc it is, and in 20 more years, the state will lose another house representative to z southern state. Enjoy your day!! 🙂

        1. Very typical response in Massachusetts to a state losing a house representative every decade. It does make the state more powerless as a whole in America, no population growth means less power 🙂

          2. Nah….LOL is your most typical response Charlie. As such, I just thought that is what you considered an appropriate response

            In the meantime and I certainly do not mean to be disrespectful (another term you should be familiar with) would you PLEASE stop bashing Massachusetts. It is getting really old. If you dislike the state so much….well, you can probably figure the rest eh?

            1. I love the state, I dislike the moonbats that put money towards ocean life than human life and economy 🙂

              1. I’m not really sure what a “moonbat” is, but I assume the opposite would be a “sunbird” or something like it. Regardless, even people of opposing views on some issues need to learn to work together. Accomplishing something is better than just arguing about it and doing nothing at all.

                My suggestion is if you love the state, instead of bashing it, and you don’t want to move out of it, then enter politics and work for the people, assuming they elect you. 🙂

                1. I am in the politic side tk, it’s like talking to a wall, no Comprising on the other side, seriously tk, when I go to these meetings, and just last week, a small gathering, 50 homes stopped being built, why? I have no reason, I stood up and said its completely embarrassing, 45% were with me, the rest were moonbats= the type that stare at the moon at night and dream about whatever they may think, human life, ocean life etc life, it’s true 🙂

                2. At the same time they stopped the dare program, great idea, no tax money no progression, everything’s freaking government funded, so sad 🙁

    4. Well done, Joshua. Totally agree with all of it.

      However, I also believe that w/the increase in cellular phones, computers and other internet-linked devices – these are sending millowatts of microwave energy, heating the atomosphere. Yes, these devices have improved our society in many ways – but the amount of energy being sent into the lower/higher atmosphere is not doing any good. Yes, yes – I know we have had some bad and crazy storms in the past – and I know w/current technology we see and know more of what ‘s going on; which is good. But at least some of this energy could be affecting the weather and the environment. What would I suggest? Nothing – we can’t go back w/technology. But on the “green” side of all of this we can still attempt to clean up the environment.

      There – off my soapbox! 🙂

  7. Global models and even the hurricane models are predicting the demise of GRACE
    somewhere East of the Lesser Antilles.

  8. Boston’s young players. Not too shabby.

    Player Batting Ave.
    Bogaerts, X .320
    Bradley, J .292
    Swihart, B .288
    Holt, B .282 .
    Betts, M .282
    Castillo, R .279

      1. Dombrowski promises one. We shall see.

        If they can get a top of the line guy and the way Kelly has come around and the continuing emergence of Rodriguez, they could be in good shape for next year. Even Porcello has come around,
        so who knows.

        1. Of course with Porcello and Kelley, it could be simply that
          the pressure was off since they were so far out of it.
          That can make a big difference with some players.
          Hope not. We’ll find out.

          2. Not sure about the turnaround with Kelley but with Porcello someone told him to stop screwing around with the fastball and throw the sinker.

    1. Can’t deny that. Reprehensible!!!

      They took it down, but the damage was done.

      I hope Tom throws 75 TD passes this year and they go 16-0 in the regular
      and win out in the play offs and WIN the SUPER BOWL.

      Screw the NFL)!(@#*^!*(^@#^!&*@^#&!*@&#!^@#&!#&@!

  12. Remember the Patroits went 16-0 in regular season the year after Spygate came out. They have that us against the world mentality. The Patriots to me are like the Yankees you either love them or you hate them.

    1. My CA niece said the same. I’m trying to recall if the Yankees have been falsely accused of cheating on a regular basis. I Don’t follow baseball closely enough any more to know. I do think tiger woods is an individual you love or hate. Sadly, his personal life was dragged into it. I firmly believe personal life is no ones business. I seem to think it used to be that way

        1. A good friend was head of the microwave division at Raytheon….now retired. He would agree. He also didn’t allow a microwave in his house until near 1990

          1. We didn’t get a microwave until about 2000 or so.
            My wife still hates them to death and won’t let
            me stand near it while in operation.

            1. Hahaha. I like your wife more and more. We didn’t get one until well into the 90s and we also never stand near…not that I think that is the answer but it cannot hurt

  14. Boston Noon Time:

    88 with dp 59.

    hmmm

    84.7 here.

    sometimes I think the observer at Logan places a magnifying glass over the thermometer OR alternatively it is the heated air from all of the buildings, asphalt
    and cement in the city that is sent via the surface winds over to the Logan obs location.

    1. We have a good deal of transpiration going on here due to the number
      of trees around. That can account for a few degrees. 😀

  15. Finally picked up a new HD television.
    We did NOT want a super large one to overwhelm the room, so we picked out a 32 inch to replace our broken 32 inch plazma.

    Here is the model we chose:

    Samsung – 32″ Class (31.5″ Diag.) – LED – 1080p – Smart – HDTV – Silver
    Model: UN32J5500AFXZA SKU: 4380083 Customer Rating:
    4.6 (out of 5) (391 customer reviews)

    We purchased from Best Buy with a deal at $329
    Same exact unit at Amazon was $447.

    We are very very pleased with this unit. The picture quality is beyond belief.
    Superb!!! For the price, can’t be beaten for sure!

  19. 91F at Logan, heats back just in time for school tomorrow, lovely …….

    We did have 3 pleasantly cool nights, Fri-Sun nights, where a light jacket was needed.

    Thursday evening was a steam bath, yet we didnt get any showers when the cold front came through.

    It was neat to watch the wind do a complete 360, from light south Thursday, to northeast Friday, to east-southeast Saturday to south-southwest yesterday and today.

  22. Charlie…

    You are entitled to your opinions. Nobody is denying you that right. You have said things I agree with. You have said things I disagree with. There is not a person on this blog I have been in 100% agreement with on everything they say, and I’m sure that there is not a person reading this blog that hasn’t thought I was “out to lunch” on some subject. The fact we can all coexist while not always agreeing is a very important part of this place or ANY place. There are people here who hate certain kinds of weather yet they live in a place knowing they’re going to have to endure it. Yes we poke fun at each other about it, but we know that the bigger picture is to learn how to have great conversations about weather. Sometimes we side-chat into sports and other news because it’s in everyone’s interest. I don’t even mind an occasional political comment, provided we are not bashing those we don’t agree with. There is such a thing as a healthy debate.

    However, this is a weather blog, and I do prefer to keep as close to the subject matter as possible. If you want to discuss politics in depth, there are many political blogs out there. You can visit the local news blogs where there is plenty of healthy discussion about that subject that you can have with those that are just as into it as you are. You can start your own political blog and run it just as you want. You can even start a weather blog. WHW could use some healthy competition! I just can’t have the same repeating comments that are not adding anything to this site as a weather blog.

      1. Yes, it is your opinion. Perhaps, Try to remember others are entitled to an opinion without you Insulting them or it.

    1. What may end up happening is just a slow-moving cold front that brings PM or nighttime showers/thunderstorms Thursday and AM showers Friday. So far I think things move along enough to clear us out Friday PM and set up a nice Saturday.

      Previous runs had been slowing everything down and prolonging the unsettled weather to include the entire weekend, but I do not believe this is going to be the case. The second half of the weekend I feel may end up with some kind of shower threat but that remains to be seen.

  24. The past couple of nights radio and TV signals have been enhanced to the SW and NE due to tropospheric ducting. On Saturday night many dxers had UHF TV from coastal New England all the way down to North Carolina and to the NE to Nova Scotia. I’m not a big TV dxer but last night and this morning FM signals were up to both areas. I logged a few stations in NC and VA as well as several up in Southern Nova Scotia. The first link here is a map showing active long distance signals on 50 mhz and above (the ham bands) http://aprs.mountainlake.k12.mn.us/ The second map is link showing potential tropo ducting conditions over the next. It’s put together by a Canadian meteorologist and fellow dxer Bill Hepburn. http://dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html You just click on the map to move ahead on the forecast.

      1. Here is a little more on tropo ducting…

        “Tropo”

        Tropospheric (a.k.a. “Tropo”) DX modes are defined by the mechanics behind them. A Tropo DX mode is any condition that scatters, reflects or refracts signals in the Troposphere allowing long distance reception (and hence interference) to occur in the VHF, UHF and/or microwave radio bands.

        Refraction occurs when the normal Index of Refraction has been altered. Vertical boundaries between different types of airmasses usually cause this..where a temperature inversion (warm air over cooler air) exists. This causes signal enhancement. When the vertical boundary becomes especially sharp, the amount of refraction becomes so severe that signals extend a great distance as though caught in a duct…thus the reference to tropospheric ducting.

        Although a temperature inversion is key, the most important influencing factor is water vapour (humidity). Thus..a warm dry airmass on top of a cooler humid airmass produces the best conditions. Dry Mexican air flowing across the Gulf of Mexico or Dry Saharan air flowing across the Meditteranean are two examples of prime tropo-producing conditions. High pressure subsidence (the sinking and drying out of air)..if it occurs over the oceans..can produce reception across several thousands of km! Hawaii to California reception..both on UHF and VHF..is not as uncommon as one might think. On the other hand..high mountains can physically block tropo DX..and deserts are generally too dry for tropo. Thus..tropo is rare in the very mountainous or dry regions of the world.

        As far as classifying tropo..there is not a sharp line between enhancement and ducting. Rather than classify the type using the actual physics involved, the heights of the inversions can be used as a general rule of thumb. So typically “enhancement” is caused by inversions below 450 m (1500 ft) above ground, and “ducting” is caused by inversions above 450 m. (The layer of the troposphere below 450 m is called the “boundary layer” in meteorology).

        1. That’s Bill Hepburn’s explanation of tropo. There are other forms of dx propagation (Meteor Scatter and Eskip).

    2. I have to re-read these posts a few times. I like to watch antennae TV on my second floor and the factors affecting the signal’s strength is fascinating to learn about. Thanks for all of this tropo stuff.

  25. I think I’m as `guilty’ as Charlie or others on this blog of veering off towards politics and sports. I’ll try to keep my posts limited to weather.

    Wouldn’t you know, I’ll be driving (Thursday evening and Friday) during about the only rainy period the past 30 days. I don’t like driving in the rain, especially when I have to drive close to 300 miles in 36 hours. Plus, when it rains after a dry period roads are slick from oil residue that hasn’t washed away. I guess I’ll hydroplane to RI, and from there to Vermont.

    1. Your long post above is fine. It’s relevant and even though there is a strong political debate surrounding that issue it’s important to hear what people have to say about the subject. Most of your posts are about weather so there is no need to change anything that you do.

    2. Joshua, I was afraid this would lead to your thinking you were somehow to blame and I am very sorry for that. It was an excellent post and I truly believe whatever is causing the change relates directly to weather and is as Important as any other event for weather experts and lovers alike to discuss. I for one enjoy all of your posts

    3. It’s not your fault Joshua, sometimes I take it to far, and I’ll try to keep it to weather as I should 🙂

  28. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan here in CT tweeted the last September heat wave was September 1983 for that time period.
    We have some school systems here in CT dismissing early tomorrow due to heat. Any schools up there doing the same thing tomorrow?

        1. There were some closings back in September 1983 which was an exceptionally hot month relative to normal. Boston had several days of 90+ including 2 days in the upper 90s.

              1. Boston had approximately 22 days of 90 or above in the Summer of 1983. I am not sure of the exact number.

  30. I always enjoy the inequities of what the season’s can accomplish with equivalent sun angles.

    We are back to around April 4th to 5th sun strength. In Marshfield anyway, I’d bet 9 out of every 10 April 5ths at some point have about a 42F seabreeze and today, was 90F.

    But, the sun was below the trees by 6:30pm and while sunset may have been 7:10, by 6:50pm, the last rays were hitting only the highest treetops.

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