Tuesday Forecast Update

130 Comments

2:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)…
High pressure ridging will continue to supply late Summer heat for a few more days (into Thursday) before a cold front arrives to knock the heat down and also produce some showers and thunderstorms. Currently, my thinking is that this front will not produce widespread beneficial rain and will move along quickly enough so that the threat of wet weather lasts only into Friday morning before exiting west to east, allowing drier air to move in for the remainder of Friday as well as Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 South Coast, 88-94 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-72, warmest urban areas. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-92, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variable cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 62-72. Highs 80-90.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers early, then partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-70. Highs 75-85.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-65. Highs 70-80.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)…
A disturbance may bring a few showers later September 13 or early September 14 otherwise mainly dry weather through the period with temperatures continuing to run mainly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)…
Overall pattern continues to be dominated by a ridge of high pressure near or off the US East Coast and a trough in the middle of the US. This pattern is a mild to warm one for this area with limited shower activity.

130 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

    1. Stay cool today Tom! My daughters school does not have AC too, we told her to take it slow and drink plenty of water.

        1. Boston schools brought in some industrial fans. I’m not sure if towns have the availability. Hot for little bodies that don’t know the meaning of the words take it easy and dehydrate quickly. Take care Tom

        2. Luckily my sons class has it Tom . He tells me it’s the only sixth grade class with it. Stay cool .

  4. Thanks TK

    I think it was 30+ days over 90 in 1983. I found some links.

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/07/26/what-does-the-el-nino-mean-for-us/

    I vividly remember July 4 1983 sitting at the Natick parade

    https://weatherspark.com/history/29794/1983/Boston-Massachusetts-United-States

    And June 1984

    http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/articles/2009/06/07/in_84_it_was_hot_stuff/

    As You know 🙂 I relate weather events to what is happening in our lives…I think we have a few on here whose moms were also waiting for their arrival during this time period. Heat is always charming when pregnant :). Or with a newborn…especially when you do not have AC

  5. Thanks tk 🙂

    BIG BIG day of work today!!! 171 seedings left, and only about 10 weeks or so left in the season. 🙂

  6. Good Morning and thank you TK.

    Today’s record for Boston is 95. I firmly believe that will be challenged big time today.
    The temperature is soaring this morning! Tomorrow’s record is 91. That will be
    challenged as well.

    And after 93 yesterday, I think it’s going to happen. And if it doesn’t, 94 with more humidity today, still makes for a STINKER!!!!

      1. First time this summer, and even last summer, when at 7am it truly felt like it was going to be a hot day (>95 degrees).

  7. Boston up to 84 at 9 AM with DP remaining at 66.
    84 at 9AM think about that for a moment.

    Ace you comment above couldn’t be more apropos!!

    9AM with 11 degrees to climb for record. Went up 5 degrees in 1 hour!!!!
    Of course that pace won’t be maintained. Assuming 2 degrees per hour,
    brings it to 90 at Noon, 94 at 2PM and the record breaker 96 at 3PM.
    Yeah, that’s the ticket. Of course, the climb could slow and it could level off just under that at 93 or 94. We’re only talking about a couple of degrees here. Personally, I think it makes it. If it’s a STINKER, then screw it! let’s break a record!!!

  8. Thanks TK.
    Anyone in a school without an AC our has to work outside today take it easy. We got some school systems in CT dismissing early due to the heat.

  9. Thanks TK. My poor boys will be in a school without AC and then off to football practice tonight. They are going to be melting by the time they get home tonight.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    My wishful thinking on lack of September heat was just that … wishful thinking. At night and in the early morning it cools off a bit more than it would in July, but it’s most definitely hot during the day. And, it’s as hot as I’ve ever experienced it this late. I was in Boston in September 1983 (returned to school in Holland on the 9th that year, after being at my brother’s wedding in 100 plus degree heat in North Carolina). It was a very warm week, but yesterday and today’s heat is formidable.

    Speaking of ridging, my daughter’s got the `real’ fall weather out in St. Paul, the kind I dream about. I do hope we eventually get that kind of autumnal, crisp weather. I’m tired of sweat, piercing sound of cicada’s (nice creatures, but they remind me of heat), and the whir of oscillating fans that should have been put away in storage by now.

    1. Keep wishing.

      Imagine the hottest day of the year falling on September 8th???

      I cam remember many a September 8th with temperatures in the 60s.
      Wouldn’t that be nice right about now???????

      Ahhh to dream. Wake up! Wake up! Wake Up!!!

      Can you say RECORD?

      I know TK will come on and say, NOPE, Logan falls short at
      93 or 94. We shall see.

      1. I’m in the break the record camp now. Not that I like the heat, but now that it’s hot might as well smash the record.

        1. I’m with you 100%!! It’s just like the Winter Snow
          record. Once we totaled 100 inches, what’s 8 more inches?

          Same as today. Once we reach 94, why not 2 more degrees
          and make it 96.

          It will be interesting to see IF we make it.

          10AM obs out momentarily.

      1. I was kidding. Trying to have a good laugh on this stickorama were having today.
        I was looking at the bottom of the screen with all the early dismissals were having on WTNH and they had snow
        flakes falling background. I am hoping were seeing a lot of those this winter.

  13. 10 AM Boston Obs

    Temperature up to 86 and dp holding at 66.

    ONLY a 2 degree rise. It would have to maintain that pace to break the record, but
    I could see it slow to a 1 degree rise per hour. Should that happen, the by 3 PM,
    Logan would only be at 91. NOPE don’t see that. It should be higher.

    We shall see.

    1. I Knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that you would come on and say that.
      Except I said you would be at 93-94, instead you came in at 92-94.

      Well, it was 93 yesterday with dp of 60, so go figure.

      I still think Boston makes 95 or 96. 😀

      1. I’m in the TK camp and do not think we will break a record. I am in your camp, JPD, that if we are that close, why not.

  15. It doesn’t feel as hot out here, I think dew points are a huge difference, I think it can be much worse when the temp is 80 with a 72 dewpoint

    1. Arizona has the best heat,, 100 degrees with a 55 dew point, I never believed it made that much of a difference, but it’s a big difference

      1. I absolutely agree about dew points making a big difference. Although, I made that comment to Mac’s cousins (three have homes in various locations in AZ) once and their comment was at 100+ degrees, it is hot period. We were in Spokane one year when it was still in the 100s at night …no AC…and I get what they mean. However, I am still inclined to agree with you. If you walked out one door and it was 100 with a 70 DP and the opposite door and it was 100 with a 55 DP, you might notice the difference.

  17. Back in my day no schools had A/C but then again it was very rare to have HHH in September. Not to mention schools started after Labor Day. Maybe the climate HAS really changed overall.

    1. I suspect you and I have forgotten hot days or perhaps as teens and younger they didn’t bother us much. I also do not remember even a discussion of AC back in the day. I just think the seasons have shifted but then I’ve said that for years (repeatedly) 🙂 For instance, we have not had to worry about heavy coats under Halloween costumes for years. Even when my kids were younger, it was always a consideration. Even when we had the Halloween snow, I was sitting outside on Halloween night in a light top and no jacket.

  18. 11 AM Boston (Logan) Observation:

    Temperature: 90
    Dew Point: 67

    That is a Four (4) Degree rise since 10AM!!!

    I think we can, I think we can, I think we can.

    Record, Record, will we break the record??? We have a really good start that’s is for sure!

    We shall see.

    Wind is from 240 degrees but ONLY at 6 knots. That is getting near the speed
    to allow a sea breeze. That would thwart any run at the record, should that actually
    happen. Will have to monitor.

    On the other hand, if the wind remains strong, 240 degrees is an excellent direction
    to allow the run at the record.

    1. +6F vs the same time yesterday ….. along with a 5F higher dewpoint, impressive ……

      The ground is dry, full sun …. I wont be surprised by whatever high temp is achieved today …..

      1. We are going to make it. Well I think we are anyway. 😀

        I have to go out for a few hours.

        I wonder how hot it will be when I return????

        1. I do too, I think 96F or 97F at 4pm. 850mb temps still warming slightly today …… all factors coming together to break the record.

  19. The only really hot first day of school that I can recall was my first day of HS in 1974. To the best of my memory the years prior the temps seemed normal or even a bit below. Interesting though how before A/C’s were common, no one complained about the heat. 😉

    1. I can’t give any specific years, but I do recall some September hot spells
      while in School. When I started at Northeastern University in September 1965, it was hot. In my memory, it was in the 90s for nearly a week, but recently I checked that and it was not at Logan anyway. Sure felt mighty hot, though.

      Here is Logan:

      https://dbffkv15yp72v.cloudfront.net/production/reports/history/year/000/029/794/1965/temperature_temperature_f.png

      Here is Bedford:

      https://dbffkv15yp72v.cloudfront.net/production/reports/history/year/000/029/730/1965/temperature_temperature_f.png

        1. Was it Christmas Day 1965 when it was unusually hot? Perhaps 1964? I think it was year righteous bros You’ve Lost That Lovin Feeling came out.

    2. Philip, back in my day my parents would always change the bedrooms around so the beds were accessible to any breeze. Also, I remember cross ventilation being a huge selling point in houses. When we were kids and it was really hot, we would sleep with our heads at the foot of the bed to be nearer breeze and we would sprinkle the sheets lightly with baby powder.

  22. I believe we will be in charleston nc from the new year through the end of feb, we r hoping anyway. 🙂

    1. Charleston NC or SC? We have not been to Charleston NC but spent many wonderful vacations in charleston SC and love and know the area well.

  25. so hot outside, I am at UMB right now waiting for my 4pm class and saying how far away is the closest beach lol

  29. 2 PM Boston, down to 93. Why?
    Loads of Towering cumulus I suspect. It look like it wants
    to shower on us.

    However, between 1PM and 2PM it hit 95 at the airport tying the record.

    We shall see if we get a sunny break and it rises farther still.

    FWIW, it’s 95 at Norwood as of 2PM

    1. Thanks MassBay. Did you get a chance to read it? It is a laugh except when it makes you want to be sick….for instance at the start..

      “….Witnesses would later say Kraft’s remarks were heartfelt, his demeanor chastened. For a moment, he seemed to well up.

      Then the Patriots’ coach, Bill Belichick, the cheating program’s mastermind, spoke.”

      Later in the report, they describe scout/analyst adams as a consigliere.

      It is a pathetic attempt by espn at best

      1. I read it as well as I could online but the page was jumping. I am going back at it later tonight. Apparently we have a media war now b/w NFL/ESPN and Patriots.
        One part that made me laugh was that the Steelers never changed their signals all year one year and the league was upset the Pats stole them!!!???
        My view is that shady maneuvers are widespread in sports. The idea that others are not seeking an edge is absurd. Not all, but most are. That is the reality, in my view. I have seen it at all levels, certainly college sports.

  38. As of the 3PM observation, the highest temperature reached
    was 97 at Meriden, CT.
    Many stations have reached as high as 96 with several others 95 and 94.

    Waiting for Boston.

    Blue Hill came in at 93. That’s toasty for them
    Norwood 96
    Bedford 94
    Taunton 94, but reached 95.

    Boston dropped to 90 with a SEA BREEZE, wind from 140 at 7 knots.

  39. There you go JP Dave! You win the temp contest today. 😉

    And yes the southwestern side of Woburn got a brief passing shower. Missed me here on the hill. Just enough heat to pop a few. I though about putting isolated convection in northern MA and southern NH today and tomorrow and then chose to leave it out.

    0 for 2 today! 😉

    1. 0 for 2 after going 4 for 4 in a blow-out win. 3 weeks ago you said it was going to be hot to very hot through the 2nd week of September. You stuck to your guns, while most forecasters (including BB) suggested as recently as last week that we’d get refreshingly cool this week. You were right.

  41. Seabreeze, eh ???

    Feels somewhat bearable down by the water with a few threatening cumulus clouds.

    Perhaps the wind will switch back at Logan around 5 pm

    1. Daughter heard crossing guard at sons school say they’d just announced early release in framingham tomorrow. Maybe noon. Parents do not know yet but grandson said they were told theyd be released early. They just arrived home. Grandson looks as if he has been in a sauna

  42. So, we’re experiencing our hottest day of 2015 in September! It’s possible (though not likely) that the coldest day/night of 2016 will be in March. I say this because I think our cold will come towards the end of winter, given that El Nino’s impact will have waned by then.

    1. Not an unreasonable expectation. But this Winter there may be a reservoir of extremely cold air in eastern Canada that can be tapped for southward transport and brief cold shots here, so we’ll see how that pans out.

  44. Special ob at Logan, down to 81F.

    Perhaps those showers have an outflow boundary that is freshening the seabreeze.

    1. We are now hearing that the decision was not official although someone got the word out because a school employee was telling parents. Apparently, the kids in each class wrote letters to the principal. Seems to me like a great lesson in how to address those in authority if you want to make a change

  46. I would imagine just like here in CT a lot of schools don’t have AC. Is that a correct assumption?
    When the early dismissals were on the screen on WTNH in the backdrop they had snowflakes falling as that is what you see when there are school delays closing early dismissals. It helped a little on a warm day to see snowflakes.

    1. I think the newest schools, like Marshfield High School are being built with central A/C. However, many schools are without.

      I’m guessing teachers are welcomed to bring in an additional window unit, if they have one.

      The upper floor classrooms at the middle school each has a window unit, gotten from donated air conditioners. A good part of September, occasional days in October, occasional days in May and many in June, that upper floor just has to have a window unit, or the room heads towards 90F by 2:30pm.

      On an excessively hot day like today, my window unit kept the room in the 70s til about 11am, then probably 80 to 85F through the end of the school day. Uncomfortable, but still better than what I’d assume where some dangerously hot rooms around the region.

  47. Joshua thank you for your comments above. 🙂

    I am happy about sticking with the forecast of late Summer heat including part of September. I thought it was a slam dunk after I studied the pattern we were in and factored in all the things that typically take place during this type of El Nino and the set-up of other parameters. That said, it doesn’t mean I’m not disappointed in myself for missing the convection today. I thought we’d pop cumulus clouds, but I thought they’d be kept down by a little warmer air aloft than we ended up with. Ah well! I suspect tomorrow will not be a repeat.

          1. I’m not sure it’s going to be a solid rain area. First, it’s a cold front moving in, maybe preceded by a trough that makes a round or 2 of scattered to general showers/storms sometime Thursday and Thursday night. A low pressure wave comes by the first part of Friday with a shot of additional showers. Then I think the entire thing pulls offshore and northeastward by midday or afternoon Friday with a shot of drier and somewhat cooler air, but not too cool. Some guidance has it wetter Friday, but I believe those particular models are overdoing the wave and have it moving too slowly, so I’m not in the washout camp.

  49. There is a distinctive boundary showing up on radar that stretches SE-NW from the South Shore to the 95 belt NW of Boston. This has been one of the focusing areas for pop up showers. The stuff to the N in NH is weakening and the cells in MA are struggling. I think it should be winding down soon. We had a downpour as close by as Winchester Hospital, where my mom is currently waiting for them to get a room for my dad who went in with an infection today (he’ll be ok). Here, we have had ZIP. Another shower went just SE of me a short while ago – not a drop here. Now the Chelmsford cell is raining itself out and its remains should go north of me. We’ll see if anything manages to fire up on the southern side of it near the boundary, or if I get though today with nothing at all in terms of rain.

    On a somewhat related note, our dear friend Emily is down in Disney World right now. She flew down yesterday and today is her first full day there. So far all the storms have stayed away from DW so they are enjoying a great day at Magic Kingdom park. 🙂

    1. TK is the infection lung? My dad used to get them regularly but then Macs moms were always UTIs. Thinking of your dad and all of you!

      I saw Emily’s pics and an incredibly jealous but just as happy for her .

        1. So difficult. And makes older folks very confused. Took us a couple of times to figure out with Mac’s mom. Good thing is, you are right, when it is gone, it is gone

  50. Seems the problem in the schools is not so much in the classroom as in the cafeteria. They said the heat in there was too extreme. Kids are being dismissed before lunch.

      1. I can believe it, Tom. The school did have a lot of fun choices set for indoor recess much to their credit. I suspect lunch and then the faxt that they all congregate in the cafe was the deciding factor. I give them huge credit.

  51. I just saw while at gym a short time ago exact words widespread beneficial rains beginning Thursday afternoon into Friday. I know tk doesn’t agree with this, it is funny the different forecast. We shall see 🙂

    1. “Widespread beneficial rain” does not translate to a Friday washout. Though I have not ruled out widespread showers at some point during the second half of Thursday and the first half of Friday, I have said and maintain that I do not think we’ll have a washout all day Friday.

      I saw all the local weathers except NECN and Fox. Nobody else used the exact words “widespread beneficial rains beginning Thursday afternoon into Friday”. However “into Friday” still supports my theory of stuff getting out of here after a wet start. Of course timing is suspect even now. We’ll see.

      I expected the forecast challenge from you. Nothing new there. Had I said 2-4 inches of rain I’m sure you had your “we’re going to get missed by everything” argument ready to go. 😛

      You know I’d say the Pats game has more of a chance of seeing big rain than does most of Friday. Perhaps that will favor the Pats.

      3. And one last thing, I will say you have been spot on for a while now, impressive!! When I said that, I almost wrote I’d go with your forecast, but I didn’t as you can see. 🙂 enjoy the night

        1. Thanks. I have my faults, trust me. We shall see what happens.

          I forecast more on just a mix of basic science and my feel for the pattern than what models say. They are only guidance to me, and I use them more lightly than many meteorologists. I’m not conventional at all.

  52. With Logan waiting until July 19th until its first 90F day this year and today being its 13th (90F) day this summer, that’s 13 out of the last 52 days or exactly 25% of the last 52 days at Logan have been 90F or higher. Granted a lot have been 90, 91 or 92F, but I never would have thought on July 18th that 13 days would have happened.

  53. I have seen on both Facebook and TV stations public comment mocking at least 1 district releasing early tomorrow due to heat concerns …..:

    Now, I don’t know if it’s just our building or what, but heat is cumulative in our particular building. It doesn’t matter that Wednesday could actually be a bit cooler than Monday’s 93F and Tuesday’s 96F, our building will be the hottest it’s been tomorrow twith an outside temp of 85F to 90F. Heat is cumulative.

    There are some reasonable arguments both TO and NOT TO early release due to heat. But, either way, in the big picture, is it really a big deal if a district releases a bit early tomorrow due to some pretty impressive September heat …. I don’t think it is, but that’s just my take on it.

    1. Tom I agree and as always your comment is excellent. Framingham is taking heat but it is considered a full day and they took today to observe the kids first hand. There is a lot about the framingham school supt I do not support. One is that we were one of the schools missing from the discussion last week re the Millis event. Whether it happened didn’t matter. Addressing the possibility did

      However, in this case I see no downside to being cautious.

  54. I have 1 question, why not put air conditioning in all schools? Many of these schools have summer classes, and other people in the schools all year long. Granted it’s not typically 95 degrees in early sept, but it is very normal for it to be in the 80’s many times during sept,even occasionally October may, and June while schools are busy with many kids. It kind of reminds me back when Dallas had the Super Bowl, they got snow and ice for 3 days, but don’t have plows or sanders, they lost many many millions of dollars, cancelled 60% of festivities because nobody could go anywhere bc no plows and sanders and that year they changed the policy, and now have set aside spending for a situation like that, saying that won’t happen again. I think it should be mandatory for air conditioning in all schools. Just my take 🙂

    1. The schools in this town that have summer classes are the few with AC. My SIL deals in heat and AC and for a few days with a very occasional excessively warm day, it would be cost prohibitive, especially in a time when money is better spent on education.

  56. Wooohoo- Nighttime t-storm here in Plymouth, NH! 🙂

    Core of the storm passing just north of campus, but a great light show. Storm is severe warned.

  58. The trusty 45 day accuweather forecast says now more 80 degree days for the rest of the year after today.

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