Sunday Forecast Update

95 Comments

10:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)…
Low pressure brings mainly cloudy and occasionally wet weather today. The first area of rain went through the region in the early morning hours and another one will likely traverse the region later today into early tonight. As the system pulls offshore Monday, a drier westerly wind will take over, but some cloudiness and even a few spotty showers will be around as upper level low pressure crosses the region from west to east. High pressure builds in Tuesday through midweek with great late Summer weather.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog and light drizzle. Spotty showers possible into the afternoon then a better chance of more widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm later in the day into the evening. Highs around 70. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely until around midnight then breaking clouds overnight. Patchy fog. Lows around 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH early then shifting to W 5-15 MPH overnight.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Sunny days, clear nights. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)…
Fair and warm September 18-19. Mild with showers September 20. Fair and mild to warm September 21-22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)…
A shot of cooler air arrives September 23-24 possibly preceded by showers. Warming trend with mainly fair weather September 25-27.

95 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update”

  3. Good morning all.
    Not a whole lot of benefit out of this wet weather event. Amounts too light. Better than sunny and hot though, as far as keeping things from drying out too much. It’s not really a concern any longer since we’re nearing the end of the growing season in terms of development and maturation of crops in the area, and the impact on trees is already a done deal. Now it’s more about the long term deficit and how it impacts the water supply. And yes, there is a deficit. Some seem to think we’ve had a beneficial Summer season in terms of rainfall and could not be more incorrect. Yes we had enough regular rainfall to keep things green, and that’s great. Gee my lawn looks awesome! But what about my water supply in the longer term? How do things set up for next year’s growing season? That’s the stuff that really matters. Granted we’re not a mass producer of food in this part of the country but there are family farms that depend on weather conditions and will suffer accordingly if the weather is unfavorable. They know the risk, but it doesn’t mean it is not a concern.

    Boston, for example, is nearly 1/4 inch below normal-to-date this month, through 12 days, and for the year of 2015 they are 6 inches below normal. Yes, that is significant. And the overall rainfall will continue to run below normal for the foreseeable future.

      1. It does, but sometimes it just takes a long while. I think we’ll be on the dry side of the see-saw for the better part of the next year.

        1. You know I completely agree with you re the rain we received. Good point about the cloudy weather keeping it from evaporating. I suspect it does even out deficit-wise. Even if the deficit were to even out, the world is facing a water crisis. The lack of rain is one side. We are taxing the system tremendously. I have no doubt we will be in trouble a lot sooner than we think because we don’t seem to be addressing it.

    2. Not beneficial last night. Only .05 here. Agree with the long term impact on the water supply. Only .49 here Thursday night as well. Since August 22nd that is about it. Charlie had said he got 1.49 Thursday night but I think he typed a 1 in front by accident 🙂

        1. HRRR overdoes everything, coverage-wise. We’ll see how right it is. I don’t have much confidence though I do think the showers will increase later for a while.

  5. Thanks TK. You’ve been dead on, you had the warm, dry summer forecast nailed. For awhile we were fighting back the dryness pretty well, but the past month and a half or so have done us in. Looks like back to mostly dry at least for the next couple weeks after tomorrow too. In terms of it balancing out- I guess so, but tell that to the people of CA. Their drought will eventually end (this winter should help), but it doesn’t negate the hardships that have already happened. Obviously our drought isn’t on their level, but that doesn’t make it meaningless.

    And keeping your family in my thoughts!

    1. The thing with California is they tend to come out of droughts with mudslides and flooding. It comes with being so close to a desert as well as the Pacific Ocean. We’ll hope for the best there but something tells me we may see some pretty harsh transitions.

      Thank you. 🙂

  6. Thank you TK
    Charlie Cowboys will not lose by seven. Giants are missing key people tonight. They will play us tough but there not going to come away with a win.

  9. Thanks Tk 🙂 I’m never worried about water deficits, especially here, like coastal said it all evens out eventually. I remember living in Texas they went 38 days with o rain, and were I believe 10-15 inches below normal. And I think it took 2 yrs to get it all back, and just this year they were 15 inches above average. I will agree the lawns are green, abd these cooler temps will just speed up summer stress recovery for those who don’t water.
    The folks that have been watering, and on a correct fertilizer program, they look great!! 🙂

    I hope you and your family are doing well, I wish you nothing but the best. Thanks for the blog 🙂

    1. Our climate here pretty much ensures we cannot get as large deficits as Texas and that part of the country, nor will it ever take as long to recover, but it still has impact on a regional and local level. It’s a good thing we did not have widespread water bans enough to prevent people from watering. There are seasons that does happen. I think 2016 will be such a season. The Winter precipitation will be key, helping determine what kind of start we get on the 2016 lawn/growing season.

      We are doing well, thank you. It’s very tiring and trying but we are managing. The continued focus is on Dad’s comfort, as it should be. The rest is just a wait.

      Enjoy the games. 🙂

  10. Predicted winners today:
    Kansas City, Indianapolis, Carolina, Washington, Green Bay, St. Louis, Cleveland, San Diego, Arizona, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Denver, and Dallas.

    1. No colts, No colts, No colts, No colts, No colts, No colts, No colts, No colts,

      Did I say No Colts

      As I typed that Vinneteri (sp?) missed……I have the touch 😈

  14. Minimal rain in Boston overnight. A few puddles, with geese and ducks drinking like there’s no tomorrow. I think they prefer puddles from recent rainfall, rather than the river or lagoon.

    Postponed my trip to Norwich, Vermont until tomorrow. Look forward to seeing some colors up north. It’s a 24 hour trip, but I’ll make the most of it. Off to Minnesota in 10 days where `real’ fall weather has been in full swing.

    TK, hope all is well.

    1. Enjoy your trip.

      I think it was you who mentioned shaking a branch lightly would cause leaves to fall. We have leaves all over the yard already. And any color we are seeing is more like a dead brown/orange color. I’ll be curious to know what you see in VT

      1. Yes, I see a more than usual number of green and brown leaves on the ground in Boston, too. There will be foliage, but I think it will be muted. I’m hearing that central and especially northern NE has had more rain over the past few months. My guess is that I will see splashes of color and that their foliage season will be normal.

  15. Late today with the quiz (Took a 12 mile walk this AM).

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    With only 182 days of sunshine per year, what is the least sunniest place in the world?

    A. Seattle
    B. South Pole
    C. Alaska
    D. Siberia

    Answer later today.

    1. 12 miles. Impressive!!

      I’m really torn. I want to say D but will go with C

      I wonder how they come up with a number when weather is taken into account.

      Thank you Longshot

      1. Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
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        Storm headed for Windsor Locks being watched closely. Strong opposing wind direction inside storm. If opposing wind field tightens close enough you get potentially tornadic storm. Not quite there.
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        Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist Latest scan in seconds ago shows weakening of the inbound/o

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  20. Question for TK, you say that some of the rain we have received is not beneficial, be it not enough or too much in a short amount of time, with most of it becoming run off. On average Boston recieves 40 something inches a year, my question is how much of that needs to be beneficial to be beneficial. I say that because the 2″ of rain we received since Thursday was deemed not beneficial by you but will still add to the yearly total. I mention the yearly total because some like to use that amount in discussion of how dry it has been this year.

    1. That’s a very good question, and of course the answer will vary slightly with location and conditions prior. Since in this area the majority of our rain is not fast run-off and a good amount of our moisture comes from melting snow in some years, we don’t usually run into a huge issue with it. It becomes more of an issue when we’re trying to make up a deficit. In other words, each “run-off” rain is somewhat of a missed opportunity.

      I would say an area that gets about 40 inches a year on average could get by with around 35 inches provided there are no very long dry periods at key times. The run-off is going to be more of a factor for soil/crop conditions than water supplies in reservoirs, because assuming they are outdoor, and most are, whatever falls in them falls in them. In fact some of the natural ones can benefit from run off, provided the run off is filling them.

    2. I’m not Tk, but it’s beneficial to everything but agricultural? If it rains, it becomes wet, and if it rains to much at one time it goes into the drain. 🙂

      1. It does not run off from the rivers and streams. They feed our aquifers. We have to remember, as I posted above, that it isn’t just what we see above ground and in many cases what is below ground is more important.

          1. The wetlands behind my house haven’t been “wet” in a long time. Very lush but no sign of standing water.

  21. Today so far we’ve received drizzle and rain, not a lot, maybe a trace to .05, but everything is moist and wet, so for me, it’s very beneficial. But also understand tk’s answering. 🙂

  23. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    With only 182 days of sunshine per year, what is the least sunniest place in the world?

    A. Seattle
    B. South Pole
    C. Alaska
    D. Siberia

    The answer is B.

    2. Ya know, I was tempted to chose that one just due to the fact a few weeks of the year the sun never rises. But then again, there’s an equal part of the year the sun never sets. Ironic for a “desert” climate the sun rarely makes an appearance.

      1. Another Accuweather trick question.

        There is no sunshine for the 182 days mentioned because
        it is DARK. I don’t like question like that, but then I am
        a big SORE LOSER!

  24. Dad passed away peacefully shortly after 8PM tonight.

    Thank you again everybody for all of your support and love during this time. It means very much to me and to my family.

    Dad may no longer be physically with us but his spirit will be with us always.

    Though we are all sad, we still smile because he gave us so many great memories and we will celebrate his life through all of those. 🙂

    1. TK my heart aches for you and your family. Your dad is at peace. He had an amazingly long life. I cannot even imagine all he saw in his over nine decades. But I know there is a void in your lives that is huge. How blessed he was to live his life at home with your mom and you and his grandkids and your brothers. And how blessed he was to feel your comfort as he quietly went home. I have no doubt that he is smiling down at you all now with his heart full of love. You remain in my prayers. Hugs to you all and a quadruple hug for your mom.

  26. TK…Sorry about your loss but your last line above about celebrating your Dad’s life made me smile. Take care.

  27. I’m so sorry, TK… my mom passed nearly 3 years ago, it’s never easy. Much love to you and your family.

  29. My deepest sympathy and support, TK.
    Take care of yourself and your family.
    God bless you at this most difficult time.

  31. I am so sorry, TK. Vicki put it very well what she wrote above. My mother passed away in Dec. 2013 – I know – it is a very big loss. But their memory will always be there and I am sure he is always looking down at all of you and he is smiling.

  35. Very sorry to hear that TK. Glad he could have such a long, happy life though . Keeping you and your family in my thoughts.

  36. Thank you everyone 🙂

    I have some things to take care of for several hours and will sit down for a break and a forecast update this afternoon. It won’t be any trouble and will be a nice distraction from what will be a trying and tiring set of days this week.

  38. You know, I don’t know how others feel, but I cannot bring myself to post
    anything at all weather related today…. Just seems irrelevant today.

  43. I was just reading through during my lunch; I am sorry for your loss, TK. Take good care of yourself and your family and I hope it helps somehow to know that others are thinking of you.

    I’ll indulge in a personal story. My mother died about 10 years ago. Whenever she went to my sister’s house, more often than not, it rained–whether it was predicted or not. So, after her funeral, we went to my sister’s house. There we all were, sitting outside on an absolutely beautiful day, having a barbecue (because that’s the kind of people we are) when the clouds rolled in and the sky opened up and poured for I don’t know, maybe 10 minutes. We figured she had arrived.

    Again, my sincere condolences.

    1. Beautiful story, Deb. Thank you for sharing. Your mother had indeed arrived and clearly liked the idea of a BBQ. There are so many times I believe that we have small signs that our loved ones are with us. We just have to listen/look for them. My mom wasn’t here for the birth of my grandchildren (her great). However, her moon was the crescent moon which she called God’s fingernail. All but one of her greats was born under the crescent moon. For the one who was not, the nurse (with no knowledge of anything) had the same moon and star tattoo my daughter has and a visitor brought in a balloon with a crescent moon.

  44. Honestly, I think the best thing you can do for TK is talk weather. It could be a good break from what he is going through. I know I would want that and know I used it myself.

  46. It didn’t even hit 70 degrees here today 🙂 it reached 69.4 at 2:34pm, and it’s currently 68.6 degrees, I think it gets down to around 50 degrees tonight. 🙂

      1. I didn’t know either, but I’ll take any one of the homes of they are donating to a lost cause with high hopes 🙂

  49. Hi all!
    Hope you enjoyed the brief Fallish interlude because Summer’s coming back!
    New post is up. 🙂

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