Thursday Forecast Update

76 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)…
Cold front quietly slips north to south through the region today and this evening bringing some clouds, but no threat of any rain. High pressure builds out of Canada again Friday through the weekend with dry weather. Low pressure to the south may push some cloudiness into the region by Monday, but for now it appears all rain with this system will stay south at least through that time.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind NW shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 45-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-72. wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 39-47. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 65-73.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)…
Low pressure from the south still may bring some showers into the region September 29 before a cold front from the west brings a shower threat September 30. High pressure builds in with dry and cooler weather for the early days of October, but there is some uncertainty in timing and if another system will try to come along sometime these days.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Overall pattern will remain drier and warmer than normal.

76 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  2. Lots of rain in St. Paul. It’s been raining almost non-stop since yesterday. Thus far, they’ve had close to 5.5 inches of rain this month, which is well above average. More rain to come today, but it should clear late tonight.

  9. Did anyone see that video that has gone viral of a local fisherman
    coming encountering an ocean sunfish and going nuts with an obscenity laden
    commentary in his best Boston accent? It is absolutely hilarious if you can
    get by the insane language. I can post a link if anyone cares.

    1. I saw it JPD and enjoyed it. My friend’s son recently created a new video with audio from that one and scenes from Jaws. It was quite cool.

  10. It doesn’t appear the fall foliage season is too far off from last year. Maybe 5 to 7 days behind in some areas.

    September 18, 2014
    http://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/midwest-us-2011-reports/139-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-northeast-us/foliage-reports-northeast-us-archive/foliage-reports-northeast-us-archive-2014/531-ne-foliage-report-5-2014

    September 24, 2015
    http://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-northeast-us/current-season-northeast-us/128-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-northeast-us/foliage-reports-northeast-us-current-season/605-ne-foliage-report-7-2015

  11. There was a segment about northern New England on Chronicle last night. One foliage “expert” believes that when there is lack of water the colors are more concentrated and vibrant. I had never heard that before.

    An old timer in VT also said that colors are far more muted than years past. With that I completely agree. The cause is up for debate but he had thoughts. Mac did say he had read recently how acid rain affects foliage. I’m trying to get him to find the article.

    1. I think like anything there needs to be a good balance. I have heard that too much rainfall late in the summer can mute the colors. Ideally, a wet spring followed by normal precip throughout the summer and no abnormally wet periods late in summer are perfect for vibrant color.

      1. There’s definitely a fine line there. As for the old timer saying colors are muted, this has been a disturbing trend as of late. I have been in VT almost every year since I was a kid to see the foliage and I’d say the past 8-10 years have seen a steady decline in the vibrancy of color and duration of peak.

    1. The lawns in St. Paul are lush and green, ground is damp, puddles everywhere from a bit too much rain. I’ll try and send some your way, but unfortunately the jet stream is such that rain in the mid-west does not mean rain in the north-east will follow suit. I believe the rain (and low associated with it) that’s in Minnesota moves in a north/northeasterly direction towards Hudson Bay.

        1. Yes, I work near the airport and sometimes go to that plaza for Chipotle or Stop N Shop.

          That line is awful! You need to be there before quarter of noon or its 20 minutes in line.

          1. I’m a usual lunchtime customer of Home Depot as I work in Walpole and stop at Chipotle for lunch on occasion. I was about 5 mins too late and got stuck at the back of the line.

              1. I use to go to that Bertucci’s all that time but not recently. If I go out I generally will go to the Chateau, Jake N Joes, Chipotle, North End Deli or D&G Deli.

  17. My opinion is that the GFS is slowly figuring out that unfortunately, it’s not going to rain much the next 7 to 10 days.

    While its 12z long range storm would be wonderful, it’s probably fantasy land.

  18. You know, I haven’t even looked at a weather map in about a week.

    That is a testament to how BORING it has been weatherwise. Why look at a map
    when absolutely NOTHING is going on in our neck of the woods. Plus I have
    been extremely busy.

      1. Yes, it is only September, albeit late in September with 6 days remaining. It is the October Snow that really needs to be monitored. With the strong El Nino in place, hard to tell what effect, if any, A deep October Siberian snow pack would have
        on our Winter. We shall see what develops over time.

        In any case, it is a good resource for us.

    1. Should be a fabulous viewing night, just shy of perfect with a few clouds but a mostly clear sky overall.

  21. Good PM all!

    Another stretch of great September weather. It should come as no surprise that this kind of weather can take place here at this time of year. After all, this is a time when the upper levels are still relatively warm (compared to Spring and very early Summer), and surface temps have come down just enough result in about as stable an atmosphere, on average, as we can get. There is nothing weird going on, as some media sources may allude to. And yes you do get that in media when the uneducated speak on a subject they really should not be speaking on. I have strong feelings on the matter and will not hesitate to point them out when I hear them. The media has a responsibility to be as accurate as possible, and I see them failing in that more than ever these days. Misinformation is the biggest problem we face in media right now, by far. I’m kind of surprised they haven’t hyped the “Super Blood Moon Eclipse” into something that is going to basically end the world. Oh well, give it time…

    Speaking of, I have felt all along and continue to feel that the GFS is a piece of crap in trying to forecast wet weather coming up from the south as early as Sunday PM. I didn’t buy it a few days ago, I didn’t buy it after that, I don’t buy most of its solution now, and I’m not likely to buy it any time soon given the trend I’ve seen on the model. Perhaps it will suddenly right itself but time will reveal that. Hey, at least it’s not as bad as the CMC. Right now, the ECMWF is the most accurate medium range model, but I’m not very much in agreement with its recent weeklies pointing to a chilly first half of October. I think that is an error which will be fixed. Yes, we’re by the hottest days of the warm season as we transition. This should come as no surprise to anyone. However, we remain locked in a milder than average long term pattern and an especially dry long term pattern. We’ve been indicating this would become a problem before 2015 was over, and it is. And from here it will get worse. Is it the first time we’ve seen a drought? Some media will make you try to believe this but no, it’s not. Nor will it be the last. Weather is made up of day to day changes, short to medium term patterns, longer term patterns, and very long term trends. The combination of these is what determines your conditions at your location, and how quickly they change. Amazing concept ain’t it? That is all for now…

    2. I’m glad you spoke about this tk, I feel like certain folks were on the verge of calling it global drying change, and blaming humans. 🙂

    3. What is the media saying? Isn’t this absolute average/normal or whatever temp for sept? Nice light fall clothes, cool nights and comfy days.

  22. So …. Yesterday evening, I was in a car accident.

    I was appreciative that the other driver graciously admitted fault to the police and that a witness verified that.

    For whatever reason, the other car accelerated into a turn onto the main road we were traveling on.

    Hit us perpendicularly on the passengers side. There is no worse sound than the crunch of impact.

    All involved are fine, not one bump or bruise.

    The one part that concerns me though is my 7 year olds new reality on the road.

    After impact, she was very upset and btwn tears kept saying, “why didn’t they stop?”

    Well, I am thankful that we were in our truck. Split seconds after impact, in the rear view mirror, I could see some large and many small pieces of a car and after I pulled over, I somewhat hesitantly walked around, expecting to find a gaping hole in the truck.

    There was no hole, but a long impact mark left on the lower door areas. The energy of the impact did greatly impact the other car, as all those car pieces were from the other vehicle.

    Did the whole insurance reporting thing today. Never a dull moment.

    1. Tom glad to hear you are all ok but it is terrifying all the same. Even after I’ve been rear ended, it is a long time before I stop looking in the mirror every time I stop. How is your daughter today? It is very difficult to feel you have no control of a situation, especially for a child.

      1. Overall, she’s fine ….. But, I guess when my wife picked her up at school today and they were headed down the street to the playground, she said, please don’t get into an accident, so, I guess it will be on her mind for a while yet.

    2. glad to hear everyone is ok. I almost got in a car accident on 3a as someone was backing up during morning rush hour while on her dam cell phone.

  23. TK – Will the blood/super moon eclipse be visible in SNE come Sunday evening?

    According to Eric it is a lock for NNE but questionable around here.

    1. Fisher is taking the bait of the gfs and blending it with the euro. giving the region clouds and a possible shower last time i heard him.

      1. Tough stretch that road as I’m on it quite often. Again glad you are ok and I’m sure your daughter just needs some time as being 7 yrs old that must have been scary. Take care Tom .

  26. Glad you and everyone involved are ok Tom. Scary for sure.

    Semi-related: I have noticed more and more detail police officers lately not paying attention to their detail and texting on their phones. Just saw it this morning on the way to Reading. Officer staring at phone while traffic passes on both sides and workers are being left unprotected.

    1. Me too. This may surprise you, but I stop as I drive by them and very nicely explain they didn’t make it clear what to do.

    2. “Mindfulness is a whole-body-and-mind awareness of the present moment. To be mindful is to be fully present, not lost in daydreams, anticipation, indulgences, or worry.” Thich Nhat Hanh 🙂

    3. Thanks TK.

      I haven’t seen that specific example yet, but I see a lot of drivers texting. Many times a car is slowly drifting into the oncoming lane and all of a sudden, there’s a sudden lurch of the vehicle back into the lane.

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