Friday Forecast Update

49 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)…
High pressure dominates the next 3 days with very nice weather. Will write soon on the down side to the dry weather as well as the upcoming lunar eclipse. Low pressure to the south will push some cloudiness into the region by Monday and perhaps some shower activity Monday night and part of Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 64-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Diminishing NE wind.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 65-73.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
Cold front approaches from the west September 30 which will be a warmer day with a shower threat. Uncertainty for the first several days of October as the front slows offshore and low pressure tries to form to the south. Not expecting a whole lot of rain during this period but the amount of sunshine each day is in question this far in advance. Temperatures during this period will run near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Overall pattern will remain drier and warmer than normal but a couple shower episodes and air mass changes are likely.

49 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks TK !

    If I recall correctly, the 00z EURO was quite stormy in the early October time period.

    My early guess is that by the 28th to 30th, the models will be showing that early October storminess suppressed to our south by yet another Canadian high pressure area.

    1. Peaked again at EURO, multiple areas of low pressure at 192 hrs and maybe a consolidated low at 216 hrs, nearly 990mb out by Cape Hatteras, NC

      1. Tom, I am glad that everyone is ok after yesterday. I hope your daughter feels less scared soon. I think it takes time, but eventually she will feel better.

  3. Good morning.

    Haven’t checked yet but heard tornado around charleston. I do not recall hearing of a tornado there in as long as we were going there. May be I forgot. Either way, sure doesn’t happen often.

    1. There is a secondary severe peak in the SE in Autumn but late Spring to early Summer is the main peak.

    2. This is often the time of year I am referencing when I answer people’s complaints about the lack of warmth in April around here. Outside of anomalous patterns, Autumn is consistently warmer than Spring. 🙂

  6. I know TK touched on this before, and I know it has been bone dry lately, but this is the first time in nine years that I have had to cut my grass EVERY week. Normally I can take two or three weeks off at some point during the season. I don’t water it, by the way. It seems very counter intuitive!

      1. Sutton. It seems as it it has rained just enough to keep things green. I also didn’t water my tomatoes at all, which is very unusual.

  8. I know some of you are teachers on here. Give me a reason why its a good idea to have timed tests. they stink and should not exist, there are those of us that get stressed out about tests. Also why is it a good idea to have professors/teachers that can not speak fluid english. Expecially on a subject that is hard for most people.

      1. Thats me with tests, i get the material off of the test and then once its on the test. For some reason it just does not click sometimes. Im average.

    3. I think there are pros and cons to timed tests ….

      But, its deeper than that. There are some students, at any age, that have diagnosis’ that allow for additional time accomodations on tests through IEP’s and 504 plans.

      Just for me, personally, I am very flexible on extra time for my students. I think the positive of a timed test is that it teaches a life skill that sometimes, things have to get accomplished in a timely manner.

      At the same time, I have never marked anything wrong for students who didn’t get to a problem or 2 and always find a way to get them additional time.

      Within reason, I have always had the philosophy that I want to assess what my students know and if it takes some of them a bit longer to show that, than so be it.

      Test taking and how much time you have, in my opinion, is finding a happy medium that works for all. Its not easy.

      1. Very nicely stated. I like the way you handle this.

        I for one, always tested poorly. A combination of getting freaked out/anxiety AND making careless dumb mistakes, even with knowing the material inside and out. A time limit on a test
        always increased my anxiety level.

        I once received a warning slip for getting a B- in a course.
        The teacher KNEW I should be getting an A grade. I should have had an A grade in every single course I ever took, but
        often ended up with a B grade.

        I HATED, HATED, HATED school with every fiber of by body.
        AND I mean HATED it!

        1. Thanks JP Dave.

          I do think there’s a better understanding/handling of assessing student knowledge today compared to when we were in school …… and what works best for each individual student. But, there’s still a ways to go in doing what is best for everyone. We’ll get there someday.

      2. I agree with Dave. I actually think if he posts at the end he can say ditto for Vicki. You are a teacher that students will always remember. Sadly, like Dave, I hated school…except for the social experience. But I had three teachers (pretty sad in 12 years) who had exactly your approach and I couldn’t get enough of their class or the subject. One was math which teachers before him told me to basically give up on because I didn’t have the aptitude. I ended up taking trig in my sr year and was the only girl in the class.

        I think of them when I hear you talk about how you approach learning or when you educate on here

  9. I think the GFS continues to slowly get it with each successive run ….

    the 12z is a drier overall (16 day time period) run than the last many and it just more reasonably fits the persistence of the dry pattern.

  11. Geez tk you have been right on, and your future forecast I trust, saw a long range for the month of October and saw anywhere from above average temps, to well above average. Is it safe to say Oct looks very mild to warm? 🙂

  12. A new and fairly high-confidence forecast is posted.

    Going to my friend’s daughter’s soccer game at 9AM. 😀

    Medication take-back program (in which we will be returning unused medication that would have been for dad) and bringing his walker back to a place we got it so it can now be used by someone else. Some of these errands are a little hard to do but again we just remind ourselves about the life he lived and that now there are things he had that can help someone else as the cleanup and reorganizing project is really just starting. So here it’s a mix of 🙁 and 🙂 but mostly 🙂 of course.

    Going apple picking this afternoon in North Andover and that is always a very happy time, especially knowing the fresh cider donuts are part of this trip. 😀

Comments are closed.