Monday Forecast Update

141 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)…
High pressure finally slips off to the south and east through Tuesday as a cold front approaches form the west. At the same time a tropical depression has formed over the western Atlantic, east of the East Coast of the US, and will send some moisture into the Northeast via a frontal system that will be moving in from the west. The timing may be just so that we get some beneficial rain Tuesday night and Wednesday from this combination. After this it should move offshore just enough for a cooler and windy start to October.
TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Chance of a few showers in southeastern MA and RI this afternoon. Highs in the 70s. More humid. Wind light variable early then SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers during the day becoming more likely evening and night. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures fall into the 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
Dry October 3, wet October 4 as another low arrives, and also on the cool side. Drier and eventually milder October 5-7.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
A few episodes of showers mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

141 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks TK! Looks like a potentially high impact event this week. The NWS discussion had some serious wording in it.

    Had a great view of the eclipse last night. Watched it from the roof of my school’s science center, we had a couple nice telescopes out. Was a lot of fun.

  3. Thanks TK. NWS is always talking about flooding prematurely. I am waiting for TK to jump on board, as the hype doesn’t usually live up to what the NWS is saying.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    NHC sure shows that depression at least coming close to us, if not a direct hit:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1115W5_NL_sm2+gif/085237W5_NL_sm.gif

    Not sure if this is from the depression or not, but here is the latest NAM. Looks pretty wet:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015092806/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

    GFS brings depression this close:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015092806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

    And the CMC:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015092800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

  5. I am now performing the Vicki test of making a post as Old Salty to SEE If it posts
    right away without the JP DAVE delay. 😀 😀 😀

        1. ah ha – that would make perfect sense to me, Keith.

          I would think it has to lie within Dave’s account or we would all be having the problem.

    1. I felt the same way…however when I woke up at 3 am the moon was huge and seemed to be about twice as bright as usual.

  8. Supposed to be flying out of Logan Sunday a.m. for my Brother’s wedding in Half Moon Bay, CA so hoping the weather won’t be impacting air travel.

  11. From Joe Bastardi
    Warm water off east coast and trough back through lower Miss valley means TD11 likely late week player ma/ne. Details devilish tho

  12. Rain in Marshfield? Hmm. Bring on the rain later this week. Hoping it is not a deluge but certainly more than a few showers.

  13. OS/JPD – the only thing I could think of that was different for you is that you just changed your name. I have no idea why that would cause a problem unless your post as JPD has to somehow override the old OS name to post which would cause a delay….again, no idea. I just tend to look for something that has changed and work backwards 🙂

      2. If …and it is a big if…that is the case, why didn’t John have trouble when name changed? Again, if it is the cause, I’d think that there may have been a different technique used to change both names.

        Once I start thinking about stuff like this, I cannot stop. I love solving things. But I don’t have access so this is as far as I can go 🙁

        1. Maybe John was more patient. I on the other hand AM not. SO If I get impatient and start pressing the “Post Comment” Button, VIOLA! Instant duplicates!

          I’ll be patient on this one, because I can create a duplicate at any time. 😀

          1. There, it took six (6) seconds for the post
            to go through. That’s time for a ton of button
            pressing! 😆 😆

            Frankly, it should be an instant trasmission.

      1. You don’t notice the size much with the eye. It was all about the eclipse and that one was a classic.

  17. Good tweet in my opinion by meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan here in CT about a possible named storm in the Atlantic.
    Beware the hype coming up. Just because something gets a name doesn’t mean it’s going to be destructive.

  20. Some of our meteorologist here in CT saying this could be drought busting rain with these two potential rain events.

  21. I think many have recently said “this will be drought busting” rain lately. The problem is that if it rains, then relapses to a dry period, as it has repeatedly, we lose a good portion of the benefit.

      1. Thanks. It really is the mantra lately. It will take a lot more than one storm to replenish the mud that we used to call rivers around here.

  22. Based on what we have been seeing in the pattern with strong highs (both surface and aloft) near or to our north, the one thing I think that could go wrong with the rain potential the next several days is that …..

    The initial mid week rain area could focus most of its output north and west of the Boston area …….

    And then the late week event with the depression, storm or its remnants …. its rain area could be held at bay for a while to our south and southwest and then, as it finally makes its way up, it passes through in a weakened form …….. How many times does Long Island and the CT coastline get multi inch rain events with flooding and our area gets .5 to 1 inch …..

    1. Love it!

      At the very least, there would be water for a manned mission to Mars
      sometime in the future. BUT, it also increases the chances of there
      being some sort of life on Mars now or at least in the past. That is the part
      that intrigues me the most.

      btw, the new movie with Matt Damon, “The Martian” appears to be a MUST SEE from what I have learned and seen of this film.

  24. That was an amazing eclipse. Have a photo of every 10 minutes on my dads camera. Our house is filled with scientists 😀 minus my youngest brother who is into history.

  25. Tropical Depression Eleven. From NOAA …

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ——————————
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
    was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 69.6 West. The
    depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
    A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
    during the next couple of days.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
    a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
    Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this
    afternoon.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

  27. I’m seeing TD 11 being analoged to Sandy by some people based off of Euro/HWRF runs. And while I find that very premature, can’t deny some similarities exist on the pattern and the modeling. Absolutely one to keep both eyes on for the next several days.

    1. Hmmm here are 3 tweets from him:

      Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan 38m38 minutes ago
      Euro going full on fujiwhara next weekend.
      3 retweets 9 favorites
      Reply Retweet 3 Favorite 9
      More
      Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan 51m51 minutes ago
      Where/when will the predecessor rain event set up? Any thoughts met friends?
      1 retweet 1 favorite
      Reply Retweet 1 Favorite 1
      More
      Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan 56m56 minutes ago
      Why do I get the feeling this is about to turn into a very long week.

      Fujiwhara Effect

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

      1. Well in terms of pressure, yes. I don’t have access to the
        Euro qpf data. Could still produce copious rains or not?
        Who knows.

  31. Ryan Hanrahan is a good young meteorologist here in CT. Gil Simmons is my favorite.
    On the 8 day forecast today Gil had stay tuned for Friday night Saturday timeframe. When has that or watching closely on the 8 day forecast there is something that needs to be watched. Gil is not an alarmist.

    1. Thank goodness the current, “upgraded” version of the model didn’t exist a few years back during Sandy because it was the EURO that had an amazing lead time on track and intensity and still, a lot of folks weren’t prepared enough.

      My guess is the current version of the EURO wouldn’t have handled Sandy as well. I’m curious what it does on its 00z operational run overnight.

  33. Don’t completely discount the Euro today.

    And don’t be surprised if the Wednesday rain under-performs in eastern MA. Just some advanced notice.

      1. It’s a fluid situation, literally and figuratively. You know that I have been on the drier bandwagon and I tend to stay there when the pattern has been locked in. I know at some point a curve ball will come and this is very likely it. However, I hear people in social media talking about how we may “wipe out the drought” in a few days. It doesn’t happen like that. If you get enough rain to make up your deficit in a few days’ time, you’re going to not only have a host of other problems like flooding, etc., but you will also lose a lot of the rain into the drains and right back to the ocean. It’s not about the AMOUNT of rain. It’s about how it occurs and how long it takes. So, let’s just say for example that 3 to 6 inches of rain falls from Wed through the weekend. We’ll get the benefit as if it was 1 to 3 inches. And after this all signs point to a continuation of the long term dry pattern. That will further negate any benefit.

        1. Great explanation, TK, and one you know I totally support. I think we tend to focus too much on numbers and not enough on the variables around the numbers. Even if three inches is beneficial, it can be completely wiped out very quickly by another stretch of dry weather.

          1. Yes indeed. And another large assumption/error that gets made is when the models start to lock in on something that they were not showing as clearly before, it suddenly becomes consensus that this solution is a guarantee. Well, sometimes it is, but often it is not. Further adjustments are going to be made by these tools of atmospheric simulation, which will never perform to perfection.

            1. That reminds me. Last night as we watched eclipse, daughter announced she was no longer watching tv weather until day before. She said all week they had said it will rain, it won’t rain, it will rain, it won’t…etc. I laughed and explained your comment about forecasts changing back and forth with each run.

        2. I’ve heard 3 different local news outlets say the abnormally dry conditions and deficits will be wiped out, and possibly a surplus to date by the weekend.

          1. That is a statement that is being made only for “shock value” and illustrates what is wrong with media.

  34. If we get 3 inches of rain I think we will be ok, and if we only receive an inch, that’ll be fine too. Either way I’m fine with it. I believe that tropical depression will not get much stronger than around 40-50mph winds, by the time it makes its way past the carolinas latitude it will weaken below 35mph winds, with rain imo. 🙂

    1. This time of year those tropical systems are slaves to the mid latitude systems, so the ultimate fate of TD 11 is in the hands of its much larger cousins.

  36. Let’s have fun with Dick and Jane.

    How about the HWRF for TD 11???

    Lookie lookie what we have here: (940.7 mb with top winds of 78.5 knots or 90.3 mph)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015092812/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_11L_40.png

    GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015092812/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_11L_20.png

    These are pretty damn interesting. Not saying this is the final solution, but I didn’t
    realize this was even in play. Wow!!

    2. The all favorite fisher is governed by the all powerful top brass. I suspect the other two station mets will have trouble bucking the system and will get there soon also.

      Before we get there again this winter, might I respectfully suggest that everyone who doesn’t like hype write to the source as complaining here doesn’t improve anything except IMHO bring us to the level of the blog we left to come here Just a thought from the nut in the group

  38. If i didn’t know time of year and temps, I’d say we have a snow Sky. It is that steel grey with the sun fighting its way through. Beautiful.

  39. I am not comparing this late week event to Sandy, but if this system tracks similarly southwest of us, I think I recall it didn’t rain a great deal in eastern New England with that historical event …. Or with Irene that went over NYC. I don’t think storms going southwest of us and heading on a NW track further inland are usually big rain producers for our area.

  40. TK – Will the east coast TD this weekend be the ultmate drought buster? Some models bring it right at SNE and others into Virginia first then eventually here. I would say either way we get wet from the TD directly or indirectly.

  42. Regarding your comment above about TV, Vicki…

    It is exceedingly sad to see how often “the latest run” becomes “the forecast”. That’s “modelology”, not meteorology. Additionally, that’s why so many fake weather sites run by people who don’t actually have any true knowledge of the science enough to rationalize the information and come up with an soundly reasoned out prediction are out there misleading people and capitalizing on their natural ignorance on the subject.

    “I read it on the internet. It MUST be true.” Yup, sure.

  46. Between the ECMWF and the GFS, one of these models is going to have a giant failure on the timing and rain placement… Wonder which one it’ll be.

          2. Heat? Tees and shorts still and no heat here nov 1 till April 1. Maybe March 1. As I recall turned on for grands in their part of house late last spring

  53. I’ve still been wearing shorts whenever I can, October begins Thursday!!! Leaves will be peak color in about a month.

    2. Follow the trends on it. It still has been in the lead on this one, though I believe it’s too slow with the exit of the low pressure area that is Joaquin.

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