Tuesday Forecast Update

180 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)…
A big change the next several days from what we have been seeing. I struggled with this forecast because some of the scenarios on the computer models were shown similarly during the dry stretch and of course they did not pan out. But this time at the very least we’re going to be much wetter for the remainder of this week than we were during much of the month of September. First we have a cold front slowly pushing eastward today with scattered showers around, but heavier activity developing tonight as tropical moisture streams north northeastward along the front as it passes.This front will barely get offshore Wednesday and then may eventually come back westward somewhat later in the week. For now it looks like the heaviest rainfall will occur Wednesday with just periods of showers or rain Thursday and Friday. Everything may push westward enough Saturday to take us out of the main rain threat for that day. All the while we’ll be watching Tropical Storm Joaquin which will mill around off the East Coast and eventually start moving northward. Its eventual track is still somewhat in question…
TODAY: Areas of fog and drizzle morning. Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more likely and locally heavy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers/rain, heavy at times. Chance of thunder. Local flooding probable. Areas of fog. Humid. Temperatures steady in the 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Periods of rain. Lows 45-55. Highs 55-65.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of shower. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Best guess is that Joaquin ends up tracking into the northern Mid Atlantic about Sunday and sending an area of significant rain northward into southern New England along with some wind. The remainder of the period should be drier with temperatures near to above normal

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
Back to the pattern of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures.

180 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Update”

  2. Thanks as always TK, always love getting the first read from you in the morning.

    These next 5-7 days are likely going to be wild along the East Coast. It’s the sort of situation that can potentially endanger lives/property, so hopefully everyone stays tuned to the forecasts!

      1. Huh what Charlie? You don’t think 5-8″ of rain (which is what the WPC forecasts for most of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast in the 5-7 day period), along with the possibility of a tropical/hybrid cyclone impact is worth taking seriously? I’m the last person to hype, but sometimes weather is dangerous. This may be one of those times.

        1. I just don’t think 5-8 inches of rain is dangerous when we are 7 inches below normal. It’s all good, no worries 🙂

          2. It doesn’t mean the ground will soak that in just because we are below normal. If it comes too quickly there will be flooding that could impact homes, etc.

    2. I also enjoy the first read from here, Wx.

      A lot of flooding in FL now. And you are correct that when there is a potential folks need to stay tuned.

  4. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    JR, who is quickly becoming one of my favorite tv mets, said likely 1-3 tomorrow and a possible rain for Friday/Saturday. He mentioned something about Joaquin getting hung up so that the lion’s share (my wording) does not reach here but a breakoff may bring us a good amount of rain.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Jaoquin’s path is up in the air.

    Here are a couple of possible results from the 2 hurricane models:

    GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015092906/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_11L_22.png

    HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015092906/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_43.png

    The Hwrf would have significant impact on SNE.

    Spaghetti chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

    Intensity Chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_intensity_latest.png

    There is some thought that this thing plows into the mid-Atlantic, but that is
    NOT etched in stone. This needs to be watched for sure.

  7. Will this tropical storm even have a name by the time it gets up here? Waters are below 80 degrees once you get north of the Caroline’s so it weakens? Right?

      1. Never mind….I see what you are saying. Name or no name, it is still something folks on the coast should be watching.

  8. Yeah I just think with most between 5-8 inches below normal to date, and with 5-8 inches over a long period of time (5-6 days), that’s a perfect drought buster. No?

  9. FWIW and just for an early prediction …

    Boston and South Shore (.5 to 1 inch) from this evening through tomorrow morning ……………. 1.5 to 2 inches (with locally heavier amts) in Western MA, eastern VT, NH and western ME.

    0.2 to 0.4 inches of continuous mist/drizzle/periodic showers from mid Wednesday thru Thursday night in the eastern third of New England

    0.3 to 0.7 inches of rain very late week into the weekend in eastern New England, with
    much higher amounts from NYC south and west.

    Multi day totals in the eastern third of New England of 1.25 to 2 inches of rain.

    Most productive rain to moistening the very dry ground and having a slow runoff may be the continuous mist/drizzle and light showers in the Wed noon to late Thursday time frame.

    Again, just a guess at this point 🙂 🙂

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Have not been on the blog in a while.

    Had a good visit to Minnesota, and was okay on the flights to and from.

    The much-needed rain will be way too late to impact our foliage, which is definitely muted. The foliage in Minnesota is much more pronounced than ours in SNE, and I think this has to do with our lack of rain and their more than adequate amount of moisture.

    1. Welcome back, glad the trip was good !

      We took a fairly long ride on Rte 495 Sunday and were noticing the muted colors of the trees. Kind of dull for sure.

    1. Interesting. Thank you JJ.

      I think TK shares the same concern.

      That High to the North and NE of us with the system in the ocean
      to the South will produce a good fetch of NE winds even if system
      becomes hybrid or extra-tropical. Doesn’t need to be hurricane force
      winds to become a big problem.

      Needs to be watched closely.

      1. Gil was right about the part where he mentions intensity. Yesterday this was only forecast to become a minimal tropical storm. Now the NHC has this a pretty strong tropical storm sitting off the east coast with 65 mph.
        When Gil says watching closely or stay tuned that is when I start to pay attention since he doesn’t blow things out of proportion.

  14. This tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    While NHC cone/track for Joaquin is threatening keep in mind odds of getting TS winds here only about 10%

    1. I’m at work, so I didn’t have the sound on, but that sure looked like
      he was presented the GFS version of how things will come down.
      That may be correct, but it may not be either. Right now, I wouldn’t bet
      on ANY model. Let’s just watch and see how it plays out. Almost anything
      is on the table here.

      IF one believes the GFS, then this thing will take a left turn and spare us.

      Euro, CMC, HWRF and GFDL all keep it off shore and HWRF and CMC has
      it threaten SNE. Euro keeps main event off shore, but has a weaker cousin to the West threaten us.

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015092900/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png

      We shall see.

  16. Charlie…
    The long term deficit of 7 inches means little or nothing when it comes to assessing the impact of a heavy rain event. Let’s just say hypothetically we get 7 inches of rain in 5 days. Some of that is undoubtedly going to come in bursts of very heavy rain. That is where the problems come in a more immediate fashion. The run off over a few days will impact larger rivers. We don’t just automatically have a 7-inch cushion before any flooding starts.

    Example: Bucket full of water. Floor. Floor drain. Pour the bucket. You will flood the floor before it reaches the drain and exits.

    2. TK, what kind of floor are you talking about? Hardwood or carpet? Carpet would hold more water than hardwood flooring.

      1. But it would still be sopping wet and just drain more slowly, which is a great example of the various impacts due to differences in land. Excellent expansion of my example. 😀

  17. From NWS this morning:

    WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD 3-6 INCH STORM TOTALS THROUGH THE
    WEEKEND WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

    GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST STARTING WED EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN ANOMALOUS SFC HIGH WELL TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO THE S.

  18. Even if Joaquim remains a fish storm there will still be impacts on the east coast. The question is how big will the impacts be.

  19. We have a company event on the Spirit of Boston on Saturday evening. Interestingly enough the last time we planned an event on the Spirit was when we experienced the effects of Irene. Maybe we should stick to land events.

    2. Not sure we can read too much into that at this point. Upper winds
      are forecast to have negative tilt which could suck Joaquin back towards
      the coast.

      Also worthy of noting: NHC has increased the intensity ever so slightly up
      to 70 mph.

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
      12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
      24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
      36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
      48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
      72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
      96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
      120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

  21. With the latest track from NHC the position its in at 8am Sunday to me is in the area of where Sandy was before making that left hand turn toward South Jersey. I am not saying this is another Sandy and will do the same thing but it certainly is a possibility. Hopefully it will continue to the east but as I said earlier I still expect some impact on the east coast.

  24. AceMaster Joe Bastardi tweeted earlier about what I believe you are mentioning
    non tropical W,center Joaquin, Ida E. Big high to north. All 3 combined worst case. Is on table.Warm SST adds to woe

    1. Interesting, thanks JJ.

      I’m not as concerned about warm SST’s as some. Yes, they are warmer than average off the mid-atlantic and into southern NE, but when considering what those actual SST’s are, its still not enough to have a significant influence on a tropical system once it gets to out latitude. Need around 80 or more degrees to really maintain and/or strengthen a tropical system.

      1. 80 degrees is the standard, however, in my day I have seen
        a few of these things intensify and/or maintain intensity with SSTs
        in the mid to upper 70s. One never knows with Mother
        Nature. 😀

  25. New area you posted AceMaster is what is left of Ida if you could believe. It sat and spun there last week for a couple days then fell apart.

  27. Couple thoughts …

    We seem to be getting a decent amount of sun in eastern New England, does this raise the chances of thunderstorms this afternoon ….

    The GFS would seem to indicate that its a colder core system of some type that affects us late week, as opposed to the warm core tropical system. Maybe the cold core system is entraining moisture from the tropical system, but the 12z GFS looks like the 00z EURO in keeping the actual tropical low out at sea.

    Maybe ?? Anyone else with that interpretation ??

  28. Its 83F at Logan. Dewpoint is 67F.

    Maybe that’s tops for the day, but the record high isn’t too far away at 88F.

    Normal high is 68F.

  33. Two tweets from Eric Fisher on Joaquin
    Some models are taking #Joaquin out to sea..just looking at the synoptic setup that seems odd to me. In any case not moving much next 48 hrs

    Could #Joaquin come right into southern New England Sun/Mon? Steering currents suggest yes, that’s a possibility. But high uncertainty.

  34. Joaquin is rapidly intensifying. Pressure down from 1001mb at the 11AM advisory, to 990mb from recon observations now. That original 1001mb may have been too high an estimate, but still, the current rate of intensification falls into the “explosive deepening” category, although I doubt it can keep that up with shear still impacting it. Winds should come up in tandem.

    1. This whole thing is fascinating. I am most curious as to what will actually
      happen. A direct hit in SNE is NOT out of the question.

      Models are currently ALL over the place from a left turn into the mid atlantic
      to totally and completely out to sea.

      It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with their intensity forecasts.
      They have been steadily increasing from minimal 45 mph, up to 65 mph and as of 11AM up to 70 mph. Let’s see what the 5 PM forecast is.

      1. I’d bet anything they’ll forecast at least a low-end hurricane, maybe stronger. Likely a track farther west into the Bahamas in the short term, and just splitting the difference with that due northerly track in the longer term.

          1. I agree with you. Most guidance now suggests it’ll go stronger than that, but the NHC doesn’t like to make huge changes in one forecast cycle. So they’ll probably go right around there.

            The initial wind speed will likely be set at 65mph based off of recon data.

  35. I know we think that the CMC is trash, but here is it’s rendition

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015092912/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_20.png

    And the EURO ejects it OTS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015092912/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png

    And develops another low near the SE coast then it fiddles and diddles and doesn’t do much of anything

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015092912/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

  36. This is a great interview by I think the most enviornmentally friendly president in a long, long time. Finally someone that gets it. Even if you are not an obama supporter i recommend watching this. I posted my strong point of view of this on facebook if you want to see it.
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/obama-takes-on-climate-change-the-rolling-stone-interview-20150923?source=socnet_fb_CC_20150929_bo_rolling-stone_climate_1&utm_medium=socnet&utm_source=fb&utm_campaign=socnet_fb_CC_20150929_bo_rolling-stone_climate_1&utm_content=20150929_bo_rolling-stone_climate_1

    1. Nice article. Thank you.

      Doesn’t matter what his views are, we have too many dingbats in Congress
      to do anything about it. And I’ll leave that right there. 😀

  37. The 12z GFS is a good run. That model has been inconsistent of late but I think this run is a decent one. I’m not sold on the track of the tropical just yet, but this depiction is a valid possibility.

    1. Good run regarding the front and rain for tomorrow?

      OR

      Good run regarding the path/intensity of the tropical entity?

    3. CLARIFICATION:
      Good run regarding placement of systems and overall pattern.
      It’s over-forecasting precipitation, as usual.

  38. Gil Simmons said during the newscast at noon he expects Joaquin to reach hurricane status within 24 hours.

  39. In my opinion, these calls of widespread 3-6 inches with locally 8 inches are too premature. I also think ultimately the high end numbers will not be realized. Too many conclusions drawn when the data is not leading you to a place you can make solid conclusions only sets one up for failure.

    1. Well the media is having withdrawal from weather hype since winter ended. You knew they were going to jump all over this.

  40. Is there a possibility that if the storm reaches hurricane/or strong tropical storm status; and hits the NC coast and comes up to the west of us that we would get a lot of wind and not much rain, as we would be on the east side of the storm? I seem to recall some storms in the past like that – I think Belle in the 70’s was like that. I could be wrong – but wondering if that could be a possibility.

    1. Almost anything is on the table.

      If it hits NC and runs up inland through PA and NY, then wind won’t be
      a big issue. If it hugs the coast and comes in over LI and Southern CT or RI,
      then different story.

      Time will tell.

      1. Thank you! It’s nice to see some excitement in the weather dept. again. Also, noticing how picturesque and kind of strange/tropical the sky looks. Even ‘though it’s warm and humid there’s a slight coolness outside when you’re out of the sun – summer is over.

  44. Can’t have a confident forecast when the models are all over the place. Anyone from NC to up here in New England needs to watch this.

    1. Charlie you’re the one always talking about Gloria.
      If I recall, that hit on Sept 27. What’s a few more days when SSTs
      are above normal. Sadly you are mistaken.

        1. Not so, Charlie. Whether it gets here is not the discussion. Whether ocean temps make a difference is the discussion. Moot point….how were temps during perfect storm ? And as Dave said, you always mention Gloria which was this time of year. And I’d be surprised of ocean temps are not warmer now than during Gloria.

          It may not get here but ocean temps are not the issue

    2. This isn’t a classic system, nor are people worried about a hurricane making landfall in New England. You have to look at this differently. It’s a hybrid of sorts. This is going to be more about a long fetch of wind between low pressure south and high pressure north, and where does tropical moisture go to create heavy rain.

      Comparisons to Gloria and other hurricanes of the more classic variety are useless in this discussion.

      1. I was simply referring to Gloria in the sense that is was a late
        season storm and it made it up here pretty well intact. That is all.

        I am looking forward to see how this one plays out.

        😀

        1. Me too. Not comparing to anything. Just Saying, as I thought you were, that ocean temps are not a limiting factor

  47. Water temps are above normal. Regardless of a direct impact or not I think there will be impacts here just a question of what kind of impacts.

  48. I have to say I’m thinking Joaquin is not a big factor for us …..

    Seems that an upper feature may kick the front back towards the coast late week, but I’m not sure it captures the tropical storm. Heck, the EURO seems to suppress even the upper feature.

  50. Did JP Dave use the phrase “fiddles and diddles?”

    Brings to mind Johnny Most – a man I listened to on Armed Forces radio throughout the 80s when I was living in Europe.

    “Allright, DJ brings the ball up court, fiddles and diddles, looking for Bird, but Bird’s just getting manhandled by Laimbeer with help from Rodman … Bird’s in a straight jacket and no call! … DJ passes to McHale in the low post, he goes with the up and under move on Salley and hits. Celtics by 4, 2 minutes to go in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference championship.”

      1. Yes, but now I see that TK already commented on your “fiddles and diddles” phrase. He was first with connecting the dots from your use of the phrase “fiddles and diddles” to to the one and only Johnny Most.

    1. Again, it’s not about the track of the center of this thing. It’s about the pattern we’re in the next several days. See above.

  52. Latest from NHC. They show it getting to 90 mph.

    Current intensity set at 65 mph. I believe Weather WX nailed that one. Nice job.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
    24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
    48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

    Track

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/144148.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

    So they have this thing fiddle f****ing around down by the Bahamas and then
    launches Northward, more off shore than before ending up at 34.0N 71.0W
    120 hours out. But gives us no clue at this time IF it will move back towards the
    coast or continue out to sea?????

    Also worth noting that they have it started to decline at hour 120.

  54. A look at the visible satellite picture late this afternoon shows that the areas with sunshine are on borrowed time. I suspect that some of that sunshine was actually due to the parched dry ground having trouble supplying extra moisture to get the clouds to be more extensive. The tropical moisture was being beaten by the drought-parched ground, at least partly. We know there have been some downpours around but they’ve been isolated……….so far.

  55. Today had a wonderful feel to it. My son and I took advantage the weather and the very dry conditions. There are many wetlands nearby that are usually inaccessible but can be traversed right now.

    We set the goal of getting from our house to a local nature preserve without walking the usual route on the road. Instead, we crossed the street, entered the woods, and found our way to the nature preserve. We crossed two streams by walking on top of beaver dams. It was a glorious day – probably the last of its kind for a good long while.

  58. Was sprinkling when I got home from work this morning around 9am. Decided it would be too wet today to cut the grass, so I put down the fetilizer instead. Well, the sun came out and it never rained a drop, but I couldn’t mow it because the chemicals were down. Murphy’s law. It’s still crystal clear sky out there.

        1. I think if you listen that is what you’ll hear many are saying. The forecast was 1-3. Me thinks 1-2 falls right in there

    2. I guess so …..

      I keep changing my opinion on it with every next model cycle

      I don’t know, first it was the 18z GFS and now it’s the 00z tropical models that seem in synch with the 18z GFS.

      No impact, impact. A tropical cyclone with a small but strong wind field or one that interacts with a high to the north to produce a huge wind field ?? I really don’t know what to think.

  64. Most rain so far to the west. No surprise given where the flood watches were posted. Kinda surprised though by Eric fishers blog tonight, he said one of the only certainties with this is a lot of rain for Boston.

    1. I’m curious to see how much rain the white Mtns in NH get tonight, with all that rain headed for them and all this tropical air flowing right towards them on southerly winds.

  66. When I heard the forecast on the ever so reliable weather.com for over 10 inches of rain tonight and many more to come over the next 40 days, I figured I’d start working on my ark. It’s done. The cat’s aboard. So is my son. My goldfish. A neighbor’s dog. I think I hear a mouse between the planks. We’re ready to head down Storrow Drive because it’s bound to be flooded by now … Not! I guess I’ll dry dock my ark and wait for Joaquin to hit.

  67. Ive changed and called everyone to come in for 11am, there pissed but o well, seeing a trend to dryer afternoon. 🙂

  68. Sox just won their 5th in a row, are 3 games under 500 and have finally scored more runs for the season than they allowed. Just wish they started to peak a little sooner.

  70. TK – if there are sizeable seas ahead of the tropical system’s potential arrival, would that dampen the intensity (aside from the cooler waters)?

    1. No, because the system, if it decides to come straight up, will be accelerating and undergoing transition from tropical to non-tropical, and will not be over cooler water for very long. Any intensity change would be due to the synoptic conditions driving the storm.

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