Wednesday Forecast Update

382 Comments

12:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
A lot to cover because in comparison to recent weather, it’s an action-packed 5 days ahead. Now a word of caution: Don’t misread what I say here. My approach is always to take a step back and see what I am most certain of, explain it as best I can, and separate that from what I’m not sure of and lay out the scenarios or tell you what I think is most likely to happen regarding that. I’m also not going to hide from the fact that this week’s pattern is far different than what I was calling for during last week for this week. But that’s weather. A couple missed details and your entire medium range forecast is finished. But this is why we update this blog every day. Things change sometimes, and this time they did. So enough primer. Let’s get to the actual paint job then see what may need another coat or 2 later. A cold front will settle southeastward across southern New England during today, creating its own lift as it pushes a warm and muggy air mass out of the region. This lift will be enhanced today by a low pressure area moving up from the Mid Atlantic into southern New England just ahead of the front, and finally linking up with it before exiting. This low will send some downpours through the region during the morning and midday with a few additional downpours possibly trailing behind the departing low later. I think this moves quickly enough that the most common rain amounts will be in the 1 to 2 inch range. Spotty higher amounts are possible, especially northwest of Boston during the morning and possibly over far southeastern MA later in the day as the front finally makes it to that area. And then comes a bit of a break as the front sits offshore and high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. This high will be rather large and sprawling, not close enough to push it’s clear, dry air in, but enough to create a moderate to strong north to northeast air flow across all of New England Thursday and Friday. The impact from this will be large waves and rough surf along the coast, especially north-facing and east-facing shores, where coastal flooding is possible during high tide times. Additionally, it appears that the front that comes through today and sits offshore through Thursday may bend back westward across the region during Friday, sending more rain into the region from east to west. It may move far enough westward to leave us in a lull for much of Saturday. All the while the high will continue to be stretched out to the north of the region and he wind will turn more easterly on Saturday. Now, while all of this is going on, we’ll be keeping an eye on Joaquin, a tropical storm as of this writing but forecast to become a category 1 to 2 hurricane as it mills around east of the Bahamas through Thursday. It’s what happens with it after that which is the big question. The scenarios are wide-ranging, but I can see the most likely one at this time being one in which the storm is drawn northward starting on Friday and continuing through early Sunday before it takes a turn to the northwest and possibly makes a landfall later Sunday somewhere in the Middle Atlantic. It is important to note and remember that this is just one scenario, the one I feel is most likely, but far from a certainty. A set-up like this would send an area of significant rain northward into southern New England later Sunday. Though we would not see the strongest winds from the actual storm in this scenario, with high pressure still holding on to the north, there would be some significant wind between it and the storm system. So now to simplify all this into a detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers in the morning becoming numerous to scattered during the afternoon. Some heavy rain. Chance of thunder with some of the downpours. Humid. Temperatures steady in the 60s may fall into the 50s west and north of Boston by late. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to N from west to east across the region.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few showers. Areas of fog. Lows 50-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 55-60. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Temperatures in the 50s. Gusty NE wind.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Slight risk of showers and patchy drizzle. Temperatures rise into the 60s. Gusty E wind.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives south to north, may become heavy late. Temperatures in the 60s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Based on current thinking, the remains of Joaquin in the form of broad low pressure would track northeastward from the northern Mid Atlantic through New England with additional showers and wind Monday October 5, diminishing as the low exits Tuesday October 6, followed by dry and breezy weather October 7-8 with a warm up by October 9.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
Showers possible early in the period followed by a return to dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

382 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  3. Tweet from Bernie Rayno about the EURO in regards to Joaquin
    EURO reminding me of the NAM…just jumping around to so many solutions pertaining to Joaquin. No changes in my mind.

  4. Tweet from meteorologist Gil Simmons
    New forecast for #Joaquin A concern from NE North Carolina to Cape Cod in my opinion. More confidence tmrw

  6. Looking more and more like a strike to NC, perhaps VA.

    Here is the HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015093000/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_35.png

    The GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015093000/gfdl_mslp_wind_11L_17.png

    GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015093000/gfs_mslp_wind_11L_18.png

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015093000/gem_mslp_wind_11L_18.png

    We’re beginning to get a little more model consensus here.

    The NAM appears to be out to lunch and the EURO? OH what’s with the EURO????

    It ejects it Way Out to Sea Well SE of our area.

    2. These models would just bring rain to southern New England. If it could come due north, it’s then we would experience tropical storm force winds 🙂

      2. Agreed. If it makes landfall like depicted in these models,
        No big deal here. Not even that much rain.

        We shall see, but looking more and more like this will ultimately
        be the solution or close to it.

        More runs today to fine tune.

      1. I hadn’t watched that. Thank you.
        I love his presentations. He does a great job and he is
        usually correct, not always, but usually.

  10. Last time Virginia had a land falling hurricane I believe was Isabelle back in 2002.
    New tracks come out at 11am and would not be surprised if this is a hurricane as it looks like its getting its act together.

  12. This could change so taking it with grain of salt. Yesterday 11am the cone was away from U.S. east coast then 11pm the cone was covering parts of Mid Atlantic

    1. For sure, however, all signs point this way now.

      Waiting on 12Z runs and even the 6Z hurricane runs to complete to see
      if there are any changes. Right now I expect changes to be minor, but
      we shall see. One never knows for sure.

    2. The only difference yesterday was there was a much more variance, as jpdave has said already, there’s very strong hints at a consensus for North Carolina, we will see

  13. NHC now has maximum intensity up to 110 mph

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 30/0900Z 25.4N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
    12H 30/1800Z 25.1N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    24H 01/0600Z 24.7N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
    48H 02/0600Z 25.2N 74.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
    72H 03/0600Z 28.3N 73.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
    96H 04/0600Z 33.0N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
    120H 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

  15. These tropical systems seem to me to have minds of their own. So will see what happens. The trend is not a good one right now as it looks like there will be a land falling tropical system somewhere on the east coast.

    1. 6Z hurricane models coming out now.

      If no one else does so, will post when I get to the office. Should be complete
      by then.

      1. Not much. The bulk of it remains well to our South and SouthWest.
        IF one believes the model output. We’ll have to wait and see.

  17. It amazing how little we know about mother nature.

    This is very welcomed and beneficial rain. Do you think its safe to turn off the sprinkler system for the year?

    2. If, and that’s a big if Joaquin hits down in NC/VA, we won’t get much of that rain. Lawns will be thirsty again this time next week if they’re still growing

      1. David Epstein suggests a manual shut-off …”Just a reminder, manually shut off your irrigation system, you can always flip it back on if it gets dry again.”

      2. The lawn on average will continue to grow or aka adding top growth until mid Nov. you should perform your last mowing and lawn clean up just before thanksgiving , hope this helps 🙂

        1. Thanks Charlie! I always wondered when the last mow of the season should be. I usually just mow it until it doesn’t look like it needs it anymore (dependent on the weather).

    3. Thanks guys. I will take it off auto for now and turn on if needed later in the fall before shutting it down for the winter.

    1. Watching the 6Z HWRF (that’s why I haven’t stated getting ready for work).
      At 57 hours it has Joaquin at 925 mb and 114.9 knots or 132.2 mph.
      That is approaching Cat 4 territory. Nope that would make it a minimal
      Cat 4 Hurricane. This “could” have a major impact in NC/VA. Major!!!

      at 60 hours it is 922 mb and 121.5 knots or 139.8 mph

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015093006/USA_GUSTM_sfc_105.gif

      This model wants to blow it up into a MONSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  20. NHC does not like to make major track adjustments. That is why you see what you see. They adjust it as gradually as possible.

  23. Funny typo on JR’s blog…

    “As of now it looks like it may make landfall in the Mid-Atlantic states (similar to Hurricane Sandy a few hours ago). “

  25. Thanks, TK.

    Pouring in Sudbury – as is in a lot of areas of New England right now. Nice to hear the sound of rain for a change – unless you are out in it. Tough for the commuters and I too will be going out around 9 and I know it will still be raining and probably heavy, too.

  27. I do find the model differences on Joaquin discouraging, especially with autumn and winter storms lurking around the corner.

    I think many consider the EURO the best overall model of the last several years. So either it is going to lose some credibility or the GFS and everything else will need to be further questioned, if that’s possible.

    Then, if it is an east coast hit, here we sit perhaps 96 hrs away and really can’t come close to pinpointing an area.

    And with a high to the north, a potentially strong system and still astronomical high tides, it would be nice to have some lead time for what could be quite a storm surge for a system that could be approaching the coastline perpendicularly.

    1. It has to do with the models’ trouble with handling systems that are not in the steering currents. Probably not much bearing on what they do this Winter.

  29. And no today’s rain is not as beneficial as if it occurred over 3 days. We are losing a lot to run off. Trust me on this one folks.

    On the road for a while. Checking in mobile later.

    1. Ok. Just tested the pump and is working. Hasn’t needed to go on yet. Had over an inch so far of rain and still pouring. How is yours doing. My worst fear is losing power and then the pump needing to work.

      1. Same. My system holds around 5000 gallons before water reaches the sump pit…you will be surprised how fast you can get 5000 gallons. Same as you…need that power! Glad all is well so far.

  32. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 2h2 hours ago  State College, PA
    Wild card here is trough to east trying to break ridge down. Very unusual situation in that aspect. Would be no brainer if not there

  34. Yes, yes, I know Joaquin will be turning north at some point but looking at the satellite loop it looks like it is moving directly west, if not a bit south of west and would affect the Gulf of Mexico area. But I know that isn’t going to happen.

    What I wish we could have gotten were 3, 4 or more days of a moderate rain plus a few more similar episodes to put a big dent in the drought. Oh, well. We can’t control the weather – doubt we ever will.

    1. Agree, rainshine, on what would have been nice. And the scary part is if we do try to control the weather as we have an inclination to try and control everything, it will be a whole lot worse.

  35. Vicki, Charlie – It would indeed be scary. Didn’t think of that. This world is for the most part a mess, now. And true, it would come down to money and allowing.

    Enough of that – back to the weather! Rain has let up a bit here – doppler showing still more rain coming up from south but maybe a bit more breaks in the rain.

    1. What’s the end time you think for our area? TK I know I am late to the party but sorry about your Dad. Hope you and your family are doing well.

  38. Some 6Z Maps

    HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015093006/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_34.png

    GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015093006/gfdl_mslp_wind_11L_17.png

    GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015093006/gfs_mslp_wind_11L_18.png

    Last night’s CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015093000/gem_mslp_wind_11L_18.png

    Some one said my links didn’t work? huh?
    They work here in the office and I posted them from home.

    Anyone else not see them? please advise
    thanks

    1. I could not get a few to work so thought maybe all were not working. The ones in the post I am replying to see to be working.

  40. Pressure down to 971mb from hurricane hunter. Winds haven’t responded to the big pressure fall too much so far.

  45. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 14m14 minutes ago

    re NHC Hurricone, middle of cone seems least likely
    West side or East side seem more likely
    State of the science

  46. The ducks love this rain. They’re like kids when it comes to puddles. Speaking of ducks, the new diagnostic codes – ICD-10 – are going into effect. Our nation’s health care system had 14,000 codes, now it’s going to have 70,000. Insanity, in my view. In any case, one of the diagnostic codes for treatment and reimbursement is “struck by a duck.” Another is “contact with a squirrel.” Another “parental overprotection.” I usually don’t laugh when I read diagnostic codes, but some of these had me belly-laughing.

    1. This duck was just out playing in it. Despite the fact that it is muggy and feels warm, the rain feels quite cool….and nice. Huge drops.

    2. Struck by a Duck. Wow! Significant damage can be done by that. 😀

      Seriously, struck by a duck.

      I duck couldn’t hurt anyone! What could it do?
      They don’t even have sharp beaks.

      They are friendly docile creatures that wouldn’t even think of harming
      anyone.

      I love ducks. Struck by a duck. Gimmie a break!!!

  47. Ben Noll ‏@BenNollWeather 1h1 hour ago

    ECMWF 00z ensemble member breakdown on #Joaquin: 40% NC/VA, 20% Mid-Atlantic to NYC, 10% New England, 30% out at sea.

  49. From meteorologist Kevin Arnone
    #Joaquin now a #hurricane. Concerns for an east coast impact. Stay alert from #NC – #CapeCod

  51. JP, the links that you were posting from instantweathermaps were redirected to a “hotlink.png” page, with this message showing in the middle of the screen:

    “Do not hotlink images from instantweathermaps.com. Instead please use an image hosting site such as imgur”

    That’s what I got. Links to other model pages worked fine for me.

  52. We’re up to 2.40″ for a storm total here in Plymouth, NH, still coming down at a good clip. We’ll break 3″ easily.

    2. Given that 40% of 0Z ensemble members had a hit on NC, then
      I guess so. Will be interesting to see exactly where it goes.

  55. 1.31″ here in Sharon so far. Tom and TK, u were 100% correct in your assessment of where the bulk of this rain would be. Much of it stayed west and up into central and northern NE. It didn’t rain a drop here last night until around 5 this morning.

      1. Must be the same erroneous public reporter I see during snowstorms that always reports twice as much snow as the next town over.

      1. Been more than one my friend unless we can have thunder now without lightening. Not a ton and rather benign but more than one for sure.

        1. No Doubt. Just showing what was on the display.
          Thought you’d get a kick out of it as it showed it
          practically on top of you. 😀 😀 😀

  57. Torrents in Waltham…funny it slows down just enough and sometimes gets bright then seconds later you are back in the think of it. Thunder now too as I type.

    2. That’s what just went through here. We are still having occasional rumbles of thunder. Although we have not seen a glimmer of anything bright and I do not expect to since the rain has only let up a bit in between downpours.

  59. From meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Track/synoptic setup for Joaquin very similar to Isabel 2003. A decent analog for this storm

  63. 11 AM Advisory:

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————–
    LOCATION…24.7N 72.6W
    ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB…28.68 INCHES

    2. That’s 11 AM.

      Has intensity going up to 115 mph. That’s Major Hurricane status.

      INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
      12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
      24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
      36H 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
      48H 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
      72H 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
      96H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
      120H 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

      btw, in my useless opinion, that track is full of Crap.

  65. Vicki I am surprised CT is in the cone. If anything I thought the cone would be from southern Jersey to North Carolina.
    Another thing to note the Hurricane Center projecting Joaquin to be a major hurricane for a time as the beginning of northward track toward the east coast.

    1. It’s just an opinion.

      I believe the consensus that it will strike somewhere in the vicinity
      of the NC/VA coast. The exact landfall location to be determined, but
      somewhere in there give or take a bit.

    2. I just hope people are preparing, which I doubt most are.

      It makes me worried when a storm takes this potentially perpendicular track into the east coast, because just north of the track, with an onshore wind, the water just piles up against the coastline and has no way of escaping.

      If its ever further north into coastal NJ, then its worse because the coastline is more concave around NYC and that’s a worst case scenario.

      I really hope this track cone gets narrowed and very soon because its likely to get folks moving along the coastline once it does.

      1. IF it ends up taking the SANDY route, NYC is in deep trouble!!!

        Even if it lands in NC, then the Hampton Roads area
        of Virginia will be in deep trouble with flooding waters.

        And of course anywhere in between.

        Anxiously awaiting the 12Z runs.

  67. These dewpoints are soaring …. 72F at Logan, nearing 75F in southeast Mass, pure tropical air.

    Our building is absolutely stuffy and miserable in the hallways.

    Torrents of rain falling. (outside 🙂 )

    1. Portland ME with a NE wind.

      This should be one noticeable change to the air when this cold front passes by and it cant come through soon enough. 🙂 🙂

  70. Friend just posted some flooding in Framingham but in places I would least expect as they tend to be at the high spot of the hill area on Rt 9.

    Heading to Milford Dana in a few. I think we will allow a few hours

  71. I don’t know what the NHC is thinking expanding the cone further north when most of the guidance has Joaquin coming in around southeastern VA.

  80. Tweet from Ryan Maue on the 12z GFS run
    GFS 12z init #Joaquin at 982 mb — not a good job since tc vitals & ATCF had 971 mb

  81. NWS Taunton Skywarn Retweeted
    CB ‏@Chopblock33 4m4 minutes ago

    @NWSBoston @WX1BOX update 12pm Sharon MA. 3.04″ of precip so far. 90% of the Town without power. undetermined reason via Eversourse

  82. Another tweet from Ryan Maue
    Big diffs: trough over SE digs stronger+faster w/GFS 12z than prev model runs. Result sooner slingshot into NC coast

    1. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago

      This 12z run from GFS is quite bit diff from prev in many places…didn’t think it was particularly good from get go.

    1. We got way more than I thought we would have gotten, by midnight tonight we should be around 3 inches for the day!!! And more over the next 3-5 days!! My area is now 3-4 inches below average. It just might be a drought buster. 🙂

  85. Appears tropical disturbance is going right into North Carolina, my friend just emailed me, he says they begun boarding up, he says the local news down there is saying right over eastern Carolina and then into southern Virginia

  88. Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 2h2 hours ago

    Track errors have been high with #Joaquin so far. UKMET/GFDL doing best so far.

  90. These systems have minds of their own.
    Charley perfect example when the models had it going into Tampa in 2004 then made landfall further south in Punta Gorda.

      1. I am just saying there was consensus on the models for that storm and looked what happen.
        Weather is not an exact science and if one thing is off your going to get a completely different outcome.

  91. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 7m7 minutes ago

    [110pm] Spotter in New Bedford reported storm total of 3.20 inches. Still raining hard.

    1. Looks like it rained on the south coast too!

      NWS Taunton Skywarn ‏@WX1BOX 6s7 seconds ago

      New Bedford, MA: Rte 18 is being closed due to flooding and is impassable

    2. Nice to see these amounts Boston, points south and east as well.

      Certainly as hard as I’ve seen it rain in a long time.

  93. Went home at lunch…pump was going off every 10 seconds. The waterline outside my garage (where it builds up…curse a downward sloping driveway!) was about a foot which easily smashes the 8″ record set by a microburst from Sandy. Glad it’s over!

  94. Rough ride on Route 3 south about an hour ago. Not so much from standing water but the visibility. Still coming down hard here in Plymouth.

    1. Glad you are ok. Framingham has lots of flooding. Rt 9 is closed but it always floods. No idea why they do not just shut down ahead.

    2. Barely noticeable in rivers and watersheds around here and we got over 3. Too early for anything to react much. It will take a day or two

      1. Oh geez, I purposely put a stick about 30 yds out, it’s a 4ft stick, it was on the edge of the water, it’s at about 20 inches with the rest of the stick sticking out.

  98. Looks like there is a fair amount of lightning with that next line of showers.
    I presume that is the actual front? No wind shift here yet. Still yucky out here.

    1. It’s coming thats for sure. Not cold but chilly night on tap . Wood being delivered next week top of the line kiln dried.

  99. Track errors of this magnitude are common with tropical cyclones that mill around with little steering. Think about it…

    1. Well,I would happily think about it if I knew what that meant 🙂

      Can you give some insight into whether track can possibly be accurate this far ahead and what percent of accuracy is. Thanks

  102. Hi blog buddies!

    Remember this past winter when people were like “I HATE SNOW! I’M MOVING!”

    Well, I actually did. To Raleigh, NC…..go figure.

    I’ve got a flight out of Charlotte tomorrow morning, through Laguardia, into Boston. I’m guessing I should be prepared for some sort of delay? Cancellation? Anyone have any ideas? I’m so confused by track and timing….

    Missing New England!

    1. Tomorrow? I would say No Problem what so ever.

      DS, you resided in the South End, correct?

      Sorry to see that you left the area. Please do drop by.

      Will you be back to Raleigh before the weekend?

      1. Yes, we were in the south end. Raleigh is really, really great. But I do miss that New England attitude!

        I’ll be flying up in the morning. Husband is flying up Saturday morning (through Chicago). I guess it will be an interesting trip…

      1. Thanks, Vicki! Still a snow junkie and I travel to the area often, so I’m sure I’ll check in! Hope you’re well.

        1. Am well and I hope you are also. Would it be too much to ask that when you do travel here you bring some snow with you 🙂 Although, you are coming from the wrong direction so it might be a tad difficult 🙂

          GREAT to hear from you!

  103. Joaquin up to 85mph winds as of 2pm advisory.
    Mentioned this earlier but 12z GFS wants to take what is ever left of Joaquin and bring it up here early next week

  108. From meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Wow – Euro not budging with the out to sea solution it appears. Tremendous uncertainty remains in final outcome

      1. Yup next frame, it’s long gone and out of the picture!

        Sticking to it’s guns. It is officially an outlier.

        But then it was for Sandy, wasn’t it?

        Hmmm

        I Reject it totally and completely.

        1. Oh, I think it was the other way.

          It lead on Sandy. Initially, the EURO was the outlier and it was amazingly correct so far out and every other model got a clue so much later.

          That’s why this is so interesting.

          And, in the back of my mind, I keep asking …. what might the EURO be seeing that everything else is missing ?

          1. Yes, the Euro was the OUTLIER on SANDY.
            I wasn’t referring to which way, just that it
            was the outlier. It is now as well, except that
            this time it is calling for an OTS solution.

            I think we all thought the Euro was out to lunch
            back then with Sandy, didn’t we? I can’t remember for sure.

  109. Here it comes.

    REALLY DARK to the North and West. The front, it is a coming.

    How hard will it rain? Will there be thunder? We shall see.

  110. Time to list the mistakes…

    We had bonus sun in places I did not expect it both yesterday and today.
    I was just a slight bit off (ok way off) on the dryness into October. Never initially saw the front hanging up and this low coming up along it until just a few days ago.
    Also, we got more rain today than I thought.

    NOT MY BEST STRETCH OF FORECASTING! BAHAHAHA!

      1. Funny….

        With all that you said, the ONLY thing that came to my mind
        was the Euro. 😀 😀 😀

        Seriously now, should we totally discount the Euro (as I have)
        OR “should” it be factored into the mix and perhaps this
        thing does NOT take a left hook?

        Very confusing that the Euro is hanging onto to that
        solution.

        Although, it does not go out far enough, the NAM is showing
        signs of a similar solution.

        So, what’s up with that?

        Many thanks

    2. Hanover received 3″ of rain.
      Now I wish I didn’t apply fertilizer on Sunday. All washed away!

      TK, I need to send you a bill for the lost fertilizer and I just want to make sure I have the correct spelling of your name. Is it capital “T”, capital “K”?

      2. I agree with JPD…you have been spot on for quite some time.

        Coastal….start a gofundme account for your fertilizer. Seems to be the thing to do these days. 🙂

            1. Poured on way home from Milford…not easy to see. We are at 3.75 for day. Temp 77 to 64 with a 64 dp and the promise of cooler weather in the breeze.

  112. I seem to remember though for Sandy, at this point (~5 days out), all models converged on the euro idea even though the euro was alone around day 7.

  115. Found this tweet interesting from Eric Fisher
    One thing to be wary of is a massive wind field. 1040mb high to the north, hurricane south. 80-90mb difference?

    1. It wouldn’t be so much that the hurricane had a massive wind field, it’s made larger by that pressure difference and the magnitude of the high to the north.

  119. Closing in on 3 inches of rain, 2.81, that front has a good downpour with it. 🙂

    I would also like to add to what many have already said, tk you really have been spot on for many months. No need to apologize. Just don’t screw up lol 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Mudslide. Now that is a first around here!

      Rt 1A, I am wondering where. I am picturing every inch of that road in
      my mind.

  123. TK – ya know, your forecasts have been spot on and in this business (I say that as if I am actually part of this business), they are far more accurate than I would be the average (norm or median). What is not typical in this business is hearing someone say he didn’t see some things turn out as expected. Nice job on all fronts (pun possibly intended) !!

    2. Tim Kelley NECN Retweeted
      Dustin Wlodkowski ‏@DWLODKOWSKI 35m35 minutes ago

      Small land/mudslide over Rte. 1A in Dedham. DOT crews are en route to clean it up.

        1. Now that would make INFINITELY more sense.

          I was desperately trying to figure out where the hell
          that could have happened. I couldn’t come up with any place.

          1. I was thinking maybe across from BJ’s… but a bit of googling and it seems that retweeted reporter is from a Maine news station.

  126. 18z GFDL brings the center to near Cape Hatteras.
    ECMWF ENS are further W than the operational run.

    Remember something: The ECMWF is a good model, but if it makes a small mistake in the position or movement of a low pressure area out of the steering areas then the entire forecast can blow up. It is prone to those errors like any model. I think for a few runs the ensemble mean is the way to go regarding the ECMWF.

    1. That would be a pretty dangerous position that puts farther North on the Mid-Atlantic coast back in play and perhaps even SNE.

    1. Yes, getting cooler in our office as the building is being run as IF it were
      warm. The facilities guy is long gone.

    1. Forecast positions

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 30/2100Z 24.3N 73.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
      12H 01/0600Z 24.0N 73.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
      24H 01/1800Z 23.9N 74.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
      36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
      48H 02/1800Z 25.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
      72H 03/1800Z 30.5N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
      96H 04/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
      120H 05/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

  132. Happened to have some time tonight to watch the TV mets.

    My personal opinion is that the 3 I saw, Eric, Harvey and Pete were outstanding with regards to Joaquin.

    In their presentation, each one of them, though they may not have said the EURO mentioned that out to sea was an option from a reliable model. The explanations of the jet stream configuration and possible outcomes were excellent.

    Regardless, I also saw that the wind gusts in Marshfield and the rest of the coastline look to be somewhere btwn 25 and 40mph (strongest Friday), so, it’s going to be interesting the next 3 or 4 days at high tide regardless.

    1. Humarock FB page had info for calling in power failures. It also said that some coastal flooding was to be expected and gave an alternative parking location for those whose cars are parked in areas that tend to flood.

  133. From Flushing, NY …. U.S. Meteorological model open

    GFS vs EURO tied at 1 set a piece.

    In the 3rd set, GFS holds serve with its 18z run and it is tied 3-3

  134. Meteorologist Ryan Maue. Having trouble posting a sequence he posted with the different ensembles.
    What are ensembles? Potential forecast scenarios based on slightly diff initial conditions. Minimum across 51-members

    1. Oh yay. I feel better. I asked Hadi the same thing on FB. Ok,teachers….perfect opportunity to enlighten us 🙂

  136. This is from PB. “We’re NOT getting a direct hit. Plain and simple.”

    That’s a pretty bold statement considering models demonstrate several varying solutions. After all, tropical cyclones seem to have a mind of their own. They are going to do what they are going to do. And as is typically the case, they often surprise us.

    1. In the past with potential tropical systems he has said the same, been questioned and ended up right. We shall see. One of these days…..perhaps 🙂

    2. I totally agree with your statement.
      I mentioned Hurricane Charley earlier today and all the models had it going toward Tampa and ended up further south going into punta gorda.
      Meteorologist Gil Simmons said today he will feel more confident once Joaquin makes that northward turn but did say from NC to Cape Cod should watch this.

  138. Was watching Weather Underground on TWC. It really has some good content if you are a weather geek. It is on 6-8 nightly. Couple good points on the Track. Top 5 most reliable Euro Ensembles also show the out to sea solution. Euro has also been good on the southwestward initial track. Also, the ridge to the north and the trough to the south leave a pathway to the coast that is very narrow to turn it into the coast. Will be interesting to see in 24-36 hours which solution is correct.

  140. Regarding PB’S statement…
    I agree, as does Harvey as well as a long time colleague of mine. This particular set up either catches it and pulls it in well to our south or it gets left behind to meander until it drifts NE and hops on the jet stream highway on an on ramp well out to sea.

  143. Closing in on major hurricane status. If Joaquin does get to major hurricane status it will be the second one this season. Danny was the other.

    2. As depicted, the GFDL would deliver quite a blow to the Outer Banks.

      Of the 2 hurricane models, the bread and butter one is the HWRF.

  146. Now that we can say with some confidence that the Caroline’s get this storm,, how much rain do we receive from it tk?

    1. I know it appears that way, but I’m not sold.

      Darned EURO and now evidently its top 5 most reliable ensemble members.

  148. WPC lowered the anticipated precip significantly for our area. Yesterday it was well over 6 inches and today somewhere around another 2-4 inches.

  150. 00Z NAM now has east coast landfall as opposed to its earlier out to sea solutions. Storm is now 115mph and is a major hurricane and forecasted to go to 140.

  152. And of course, if the GFS is going to work its way toward the EURO, then at some point, you get the 00z run and its track into NYC ……??????…….

    1. The EURO’s good ……

      2 more runs of the GFS needed to get there …… that or the EURO meets it at New England and it’ll be a fun conversation later today.

  154. Tweet From meteorologist Gil Simmons
    As I have been saying – all from Carolinas to Cape Cod must watch the #HurricaneJoaquin forecast CLOSELY! Confidence will rise after N turn

  155. Tweet from Ryan Maue
    Worth pointing out that both GFS & ECMWF are different models today than 2012. GFS new in Jan 2015 & latest ECMWF cycle was May 2015

  157. Bernie R tweet.

    @AccuRayno: could not sleep. the plot thickens…the escape route away from US still very much on table…

  158. That high in Quebec at 1040+ is really keeping the precip at bay for most of our region. Rain probably confined to the south coast and island, Boston north and west might escape much more precip unless hurricane changes. Oh how things change quickly.

  163. I would definitely be at the beach if the 6z GFS was correct. Probably end up further east though.

    This storm got me more nervous than a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

  164. I think biggest story will be challenging record low daytime temps tomorrow as it looks like we should be stuck in the low 50’s with a nasty onshore wind to boot.

  165. Holy Crap!!

    I loved DT’s analysis and he may end up being dead on target.

    6Z GFS more in line with Euro now.

    However, ALL of the other players still have a hit to NC.

    This is absolutely fascinating. The Euro will NOT back down.

    I was certain that it would hit near NC. To be honest, now I have to consider
    the OTS scenario much more seriously.

    Oh and I loved what DT had to say about the NHC. I tend to think he was spot on.

  166. Wow!! The ten mile river has come up to almost bank full. It was only 4-6 inches 2 days ago moving very slowly to 3ft a swift running water. We ended up with about 3 inches of rain.

  168. After this week of cool and cloudy weather, next week appears we go back to mild and dry weather with temps of 65-70 degrees. 🙂
    Happy October!!!

  169. The longer it meanders around near the Bahamas the more likely the euro will be correct. When was it supposed to start making the turn north?

    1. Yes. See below, GFS 250 mb charts.

      It sits long enough for the upper winds to change just enough to kick
      it to the East.

      AND the EURO saw this days ago and did NOT budge.

      Hmmm, very interesting.

  170. This evening into Friday morning. As meteorologist Gil Simmons has been saying once the northward turn starts then will start to get a better handle on it.

    1. From the NHC track as of this morning, it looks like that turn won’t happen until Friday night/sat morning.

  171. UKMET and JMA in line with the GFS.

    Other models are catching on here.

    There is a subtle feature at the 300-200 mb level that causes
    Joaquin to shift more to the east. This feature is more pronounced with the Euro, but there with the GFS as well.

    I really can’t explain this. have a look

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100106/gfs_uv250_us_9.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100106/gfs_uv250_us_10.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100106/gfs_uv250_us_11.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100106/gfs_uv250_us_12.png

  174. Morning all.
    New post!

    There are still 2 scenarios:
    The catch = NC to VA hit.
    The miss = mainly OTS.
    There is not a whole lot of analysis to be done at this point.
    And yes, I’m leaning more toward the miss now. How can you not?

    Off I go. Be checking in mobile during the day then back at the keys late in the day.

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