Thursday Forecast Update

191 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
Some of the uncertainty is becoming more certain. That is, we’re starting to get a better idea of the future path of Joaquin, and this forecast will be adjusted accordingly. Before that, we still have the front that went by yesterday sitting offshore and close enough to hold lots of cloudiness in the region including a chance of some additional wet weather, especially Friday and especially Boston southeastward. Additionally, some coastal flooding will be possible at high tide times still during the next few days from persistent northeast wind and astronomically high tides. For now, going to shift the thinking with Joaquin to a further east scenario which would keep the hurricane offshore with no landfall on the US East Coast and only a risk of fringe effects in this area. Still enough uncertainty in the forecast to not let guard down.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain mainly southeast of Boston. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially Boston area southeastward. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH or greater.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-50. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially south. Lows 50-55. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially east. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
Return to fair weather early in the period with seasonable temperatures. A warming trend follows with a risk of showers later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
Pattern again will favor the long term trend of milder than drier than average conditions.

191 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  3. And no…once again..yesterday’s rain was not highly beneficial because of the amount of rain-off, but was only marginally so. And the drought is not over, and won’t be any time soon.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK:

    Hurricane models have NOT caught on. We shall see what the 12Z runs show.

    6Z HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015100106/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_30.png

    6Z GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015100106/gfdl_mslp_wind_11L_16.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015100106/gfdl_mslp_wind_11L_17.png

    Well, GFDL shows a Chesapeake Bay landfall, beginning to pick up on the changes.
    I wonder if it isn’t off shore with the 12Z run???

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bs-md-joaquin-forecast-20150930-story.html

  8. Seems the Euro is holding strong and the others are reluctantly starting to agree. It would be fascinating to see that happen yet again. Although this time it would mean good news for the Eastern seaboard.

    1. It is beginning to look like that is EXACTLY what is happening.

      If this comes to be, this is startling evidence that the EURO is supreme!!!!!!

      It was the ONLY model that had an OTS scenario. The ONLY one.

  11. We might not get much rain at all the coming 4 days. So, I’m not sure what some of the forecasters are talking about. And, this includes people I respect like Epstein, who has said repeatedly that no matter what we’ll get a lot of rain. Well, no, not if the storm veers east, which seems to be the case. Perhaps several showers and some spit from time to time. But, as TK said, the drought continues, especially if this storm does not produce beneficial rain.

        1. What I heard was even if it comes up the coast, it would be Monday before reaching our area. That would leave us rainfree (?) all weekend.

      2. If we get effects of Joaquin, it wouldn’t be until sun/mon, so that forecast makes sense. Rain between now and Saturday will just be scattered showers from the stalled front

    2. Agree. It’s looking more and more like an OTS solution.
      Still not totally and completely certain, however.

      BUT if that solution verifies, how do we get much rain in here? Oh, we don’t!

      Anxiously awaiting 12Z runs. 😀

  12. Better safe than sorry, but a lot of places from SC to NJ have begun makin preparations. Businesses closing and boarding up, events rescheduled, and lots of lost revenue. If this thing goes harmlessly OTS, yes, people will be relieved, but the NHC will take a public beating

    1. It used to be that , after Huge especially, folks to our south were far more forgiving if a storm eventually headed out to sea rather than come ashore. They seemed to expect a lot of notice because it is what saved many pre-Hugo. They were also the most vocal as I recall when it came to criticism of New Orleans and its far too late reaction to Katrina.

      That said, Americans have short memories so you may be very right that they will be unhappy.

    2. In Fairness to the NHC, they have mostly kept the track off shore.
      They did respond to some of the models yesterday and bring it on shore or near
      on shore in VA/MD, but now it is back off shore.

      They were always hedging, presumably because of the Euro runs.

  13. Don’t turn on TWC, it’s an absolute joke with their coverage of Joaquin so far this morning.

  14. Thanks TK.
    More of those models on the spaghetti plots going to the left. Still want to keep an eye on this but encouraging trends.

    1. 942 simply indicates that it continues to intensify. There is nothing
      earth shattering about 942 mb for a Hurricane.

      One of the Hurricane models has forecast it to get down to 919 mb!

      Now that would be worthy of an exclamation point!

        1. Agree with that. Remember that not too many days ago, the official forecast was for a minimal tropical storm
          with winds remaining at 45 mph.

          Then it got bumped to 50, then 65, then 70, then 90,
          then 105, then 115 and now to 140.

  16. To hopefully add to Ace’s point …..

    Its sad that a US model must not have the same accurate level of mathematical or physics related equations incorporated into their models, as does the EURO.

    What’s the potential price here ….

    On facebook, every third post the last 2 days has been the projected track of Joaquin. The mainstream public has seen them.

    Probably in 12 hrs, they’ll suddenly see a track that’s southeast of Bermuda.

    In 2016 or 2017 or maybe it takes a few years to reenergize the Gulf or Atlantic tropical season, we just probably lost a good majority of the public’s willingness to take these projections seriously.

    Its really an unacceptable performance by the models, pure and simple.

    Thank goodness for the EURO. ….. And, fwiw, I think the NHC has done its job very well on this system. It had to do what it did based on the majority of guidance it was getting.

    1. I think that the NHC was in a pickle.

      IF they followed all of the models and put that path into NC, there would
      have been panic in the streets and then to radically shift the track out to sea would have been pathetic. They couldn’t win.

      They simply did NOT dismiss the Euro and kept that solution in the mix.

      But as DT pointed out yesterday, the track posted by the NHC was
      the least likely scenario. It was a case of NC/Mid Atlantic or OTS and not
      in between.

      They could not win.

      I was bashing them yesterday without totally thinking it through. My bad.

      What were they to do?

      What would you do?

      Not sure what I would do. Millions of people would be affected by what
      was posted.

      1. Oh yes, thank goodness for the men and women at the NHC. I would never want that particular responsibility.

      2. I also thought DT’s insight yesterday was pretty good.

        To be honest, I only saw it because someone posted it here. I don’t usually follow his site.

      1. Well, that’s why we are on alert and watching.

        Please see below. I believe the Euro may be verifying as
        we speak.

        OR, it could be a temporary fluctuation. We shall see.

  19. Have a look at this latest loop. It looks like in the later frames that
    Joaquin dipped DUE SOUTH and then took a turn to the EAST????

    Performing a loop. Will it then turn North? Where will it go.

    I believe this is beginning to verify the Euro solution.
    This loop could begin it’s launch OUT TO SEA.

    We shall see.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

  20. So it appears the majority of models shifted east over night yet NHC shifted its track a bit west. What gives! What do they know that we don’t?

  21. I have not followed either 4 or 5 on this as my only TV viewing of weather is morning and that is channel 7 and JR. JR has been consistently clear that there is a wide divergence in the models and that there are several scenarios. He has calmly and more than confidently assured folks that they need to be aware but at this point nothing is certain. He started mentioning the EUROs projection several days ago and said, although he tended to favor that, it was his opinion and not a definitive.

    I’m paraphrasing but for channel 7 to not sensationalize, is a whole new approach. I wonder if somehow the mets got to management.

    1. I don’t know, but there’s one small island that’s currently in the eye wall and looks like its been in the core of the hurricane for hours. I’m guessing this particular island is taking a beating from both the wind and surge.

  23. Fred Campagna who now works at WTNH used to work at WLNE in Rhode and Island WFXT up in Boston said last night in regards to the EURO it is very tough to ignore a reliable model. Its starting to look like a major victory for the EURO.

  24. I’ve been watching the 12Z NAM coming out. It’s out to 26 hours at this point.
    I Know it is not good with hurricanes, but what I am watching is the 500mb, 300mb and 200 mb charts. With this NAM run, the wind flow at upper levels parallels the coast.

    I don’t know where the model run will place Joaquin, but this looks like a solution
    that could bring it up here in one form or another, but highly unlikely as a hurricane.
    More likely a TS or perhaps even extra tropical.

    Will continue to watch.

    MORE importantly will be what does the 12Z Euro show and all of the other
    models.

  25. NOTES…
    -Yes the western scenario is still possible.
    -Joaquin is stronger than originally forecast. Why is this? MET 101 POP QUIZ! What is the reason?
    -The problem with “locking in” a drought – busting week of rain is this: Much of it was going to be determined by the ultimate movement of a tropical system that was ocurring under conditions where there was virtually no steering, which immediately renders all model forecasts less reliable. If you start with a high degree of uncertainty that soon in your time increments, what do you think is going to happen to certainty as you get out in time? Think about it…

    1. “Why is this? MET 101 POP QUIZ! What is the reason?”

      1. People are flawed
      2. People create and code models
      3. Therefore, models are flawed

      1. Some more so than others.

        Not to mention, some countries are to CHEAP to invest the proper dollars in having the best product.

    2. Pop Quiz

      Less shear than forecast?

      It’s almost as if this thing had a mind of its own and sought out
      and stayed in an area of the least shear and the warmest sea surface temperature.

      Eventually the steering currents will grab it. It’s just a matter of what
      the alignment of those currents are when it finally starts its move.

      Too much of an Easterly component and OTS it goes.
      More Southerly and up here it comes. More Westerly component
      then NC/Mid Atlantic is in for it.

      WILL we know by 12Z runs? OR do we have to wait until the 0Z runs?

  27. As Epstein was saying in regards to the euro it’s right say 7 out of 10 times and just can’t be overlooked for any storm . He knows his stuff excellent met.

    1. Well, eventually, the 12Z NAM

      Shows closed lows at 300 mb and 200 mb, forcing Joaquin on shore
      around VA.

  30. I’m seeing lots of dry air pushing SW in the Atlantic and SE over the CONUS. Couldn’t we expect to see weakening as a result?

      1. BUT, look at that carefully. Even IF that track were to verify,
        it had been downgraded to a tropical storm before it
        even gets here. It will NOT be a hurricane. 😀 😀 😀

  32. From Ryan Hanrahan. A little food for thought here
    Serious question: Is the NHC aiming for the “most likely” scenario with their deterministic forecast or the one that reduces track error.

  33. JR has Friday dry from Boston north and any steady rain restricted to extreme SE MA and Cape. I assume this includes the evening as well.

    Are you now leaning in the same direction regarding Friday TK?

  34. I would favor the far right side of the track where Joaquin ends up.
    I expect the right hand turn away from U.S. to continue on 12z runs of GFS and EURO.

  35. From Terry Eliasen
    The center line of this track is NOT the most likely scenario, DO NOT take this as a probable scenario

        1. Funny you should say that.

          On last night’s 11PM broadcast, Eric showed the NHC
          track and then mentioned on air that much of new guidance was indicated landfall in NC.

          12Z NAM still shows mid-Atlantic landfall. Waiting
          on the others.

          We shall see.

  40. Gil Simmons has been saying were not going a better handle until Joaquin makes the northward turn.

  41. Call me crazy, but I think the 12Z GFS is about to change course.

    It is showing Closed lows at 300 mb and 200 mb over GA/FL.
    With an overall negative tilt to the wind flow.

    I can’t help but think this will turn Joaquin towards the coast and Prevent
    it from heading OTS.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015100112&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=078

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015100112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=078

  42. JP. I think what we are seeing is the typical wobble of the eye from frame to frame rather than true deliberate movement in any particular direction.

      1. The longer it takes for Joaquin to move deliberately, the more plausible an OTS solution becomes. I wouldn’t expect much trajectory until tomorrow at the earliest 😀

  44. I’d say now that the GFS is showing a miss for 2 consecutive runs for the eat coast and if the EURO continues to show OTS on today’s 12Z run, game over. The GFS is entering its sweet spot of 72 hrs.

  46. From DT…

    DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 2h2 hours ago
    from DC to BOSTON this weekend will be sunny not a cloud in the sky

  48. I think the final nail has been banged into the coffin.

    The 12Z HWRF has come in with an off shore if not oTS solution.

    So far the 12Z score card looks like this:

    Mid-Atlantic hit

    NAM
    CMC
    GFDL
    MF-ARPEGE

    Off Shore/OTS

    GFS
    HWRF
    UKMET
    JMA

    And I “Presume” the Euro will be firmly in this column

    SURE looks like OTS is your WINNER.

  49. You know what would really be something? If the EURO comes out with an east coast strike. I think forecaster’s heads would explode

    1. I’d love to see that. Not an East Coast strike, but forecasters heads exploding
      (not yours TK). 😀 😀

    1. SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
      ———————————————-
      LOCATION…23.0N 74.2W
      ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…210 KM/H
      PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…936 MB…27.64 INCHES

  52. Not good news cnn reporting 10 dead at a community college in Oregon. State police reported the number. Ugg

    1. Good God, this has to STOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      I’ll leave it at that because I WILL get too political for this blog site.

        1. Obviously, too many

          How many shootings like this occur in say

          Australia?
          Great Britain?
          France?
          Germany?
          Sweden?

          Answer far, far, far fewer both in actual numbers
          and of course proportionally.

          1. BBC had an interview of what I believe was an Individual from Australia after charleston. When asked if he thought the United states would finally do something, he said that if they didn’t do anything after dozens of children were killed, they will never do anything

            Please note I am not in any way making this political. This is a systemic problem that no one is addressing. And I know full well that every American citizen is as horrified and repulsed as we all are.

  56. What a terrible story out of Oregon at a community college.
    We have seen this way too often with these shootings across this country.

  58. Sorry to see that awful breaking news story ….

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAAahUKEwj7gICc-6HIAhWKcj4KHTyoDEo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nausetbeach.org%2F&usg=AFQjCNFic4A09eLoTEhQqcxGKNtLYFsM2Q

    Top shot is Nauset Beach in Orleans, where the 12ft astronomical high tide and the N to NE winds have sent the water over the crest of the beach, all the way to the sand dune.

    The bottom photo is Cape Cod Bay, specifically Skaket Beach also in Orleans.

    1. my two favorite beaches in new england.
      Skaket has been a favorite of mine since i was a baby. Been there every single year. the rock keeps getting smaller 😛 Nauset is a great place to surf/body surf/ wake boarding especially when the seas build. Beach is def getting thinner through the past years. When you have a day pass for one, you can go to the other.

        1. well over the past 4 or so years, you can tell the huge difference in the dunes and the amount of beach left

  59. @nynjpaweather: So all these models that take Joaquin out east never has the storm pass 75 W. Right now at 74.3 and moving steadily west.

  60. Light rain this evening will help saturate the ground a little. The rain that fell yesterday was just swallowed up by the ground so quickly!

    I’m sickened and numb by what’s happened in Oregon. There are no easy solutions, given our country’s complicated relationship with guns. However, I would hope that our legislators at the state and federal levels finds ways to place limits or possibly bans on the sales of certain weapons and ammunition magazines. This will not end all mass shootings, but it will prevent some from occurring. Every death we avoid is worth it. Every country has crazies, or people so angry that they feel they have to cause others pain and suffering. But, no industrialized nation comes close to the levels of violence and mass shootings we experience in the U.S. Easy access to guns is not the only cause, but it is a facilitator.

  63. Tom, thanks for letting us know about the Orleans beach webcams. Nauset beach brings back memories of me as a child in the late 60s and early 70s.

    1. My pleasure. I love the area to this day and know it well because when I was young, my folks had a summer home in Eastham.

      1. looks like the models are bascially split between out to sea or mid Atlantic smashing currently leaning towards out to sea do to the models that are showing out to sea

  65. OK now we know what’s going on, compliments of the Taunton NWS office.

    WHAT APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING IS
    SEPARATION BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
    STATES AND JOAQUIN IS TOO LARGE FOR THE UPPER LOW TO CAPTURE THE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE UPPER LOW/PV
    ANOMALY NEAR 27N/70W THAT RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH OF JOAQUIN THIS
    WEEKEND AND HELPS KICK/STEER THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA WHILE THE
    RIDGE TO THE NORTH JOAQUIN WEAKENS.

  66. I wonder what the southern Bahamas will look like after this storm.

    Intense storm just pummeling hour after hour.

    1. All web cams in that area are off line. I tired to get us a shot.
      The closest one is the one I posted earlier and it still isn’t bad there

  67. Perfect example of the media hype on the hurricane. My Mom just left me a message at work asking me if I had her room ready for her to come stay with us because she lives on the Cape and heard on the news today that the hurricane is going to hit the Cape on Monday.

    1. Yup. I’m getting it at work.

      They wanted to send out a automated phone call message to all of our
      Elderly clients instructing them how to remain safe during the Hurricane.

      I told them that I didn’t think we would get it and on the off chance it came
      up here it would likely not be a hurricane and if it were, it would be a Cat 1.

      We ended the conversation with let’s check in tomorrow and re-evaluate. 😀

      1. It is such a fine line making sure elderly especially are notified in time but not wanting to alarm them

        1. It really is. We tend to err on the side of caution, but I try to keep it real for them. They totally trust me when
          it comes to snow storms. Now we shall see what
          happens with a Tropical entity.

          I really wasn’t too concerned as the most likely solutions were NC/VA or out past Bermuda and not much chance
          of anything in between.

          Now the landscape has been muddied some, so we
          shall see.

  68. FWIW, here is the 18Z NAM at 84 hours or 2 AM early Monday morning.

    Surface

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015100118&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    500 mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015100118&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    300 mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015100118&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=084

    200 mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015100118&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    Looks to me that the NAM wants to deliver whatever is left of Joaquin directly
    to SNE.

    Again, it’s the NAM which is clearly NOT noted for its Hurricane forecasting proficiency. AND it is an 18Z run, so take it as you will.

    1. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 01/2100Z 23.0N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
      12H 02/0600Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
      24H 02/1800Z 24.4N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
      36H 03/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
      48H 03/1800Z 28.4N 73.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
      72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
      96H 05/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
      120H 06/1800Z 41.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

      65 MPH at our latitude and imho, they keep that figure Higher than reality
      at this latitude.

  70. I haven’t even got any emails or text from anybody regarding the hurricane, typically my phone and messages are going crazY. I believe most think it’s October, and we don’t get hurricanes in October. We all know nothing else grabs people’s attention around here more than the hurricane word. 🙂

    1. As it passes well east of us, it will be subtropical cold core, with winds probably below tropical storm force, the sst is very cool for hurricane strengthening even several hundred miles south of New England.

      1. I know you don’t read back…or you ignore…or you just like to post to get a rise….But Gloria was three days from October. Remember, how you often refer to Gloria? It finally dissipated October 2. I believe most wisely know that we can get a hurricane in October. One of the ingredients of the perfect storm was absorption of a hurricane. That was End of October.

        1. Gloria had high winds, but it was a land falling hurricane at 85mph, it’s Oct now, and it’s just what I believe, until I’m proven wrong I will believe hurricanes don’t hit New England in Oct, it’s tough enough to get one here in Aug, never mind now.

          1. Haha. So,you do,read back. That eliminates one of three And you think three days makes a difference even when waters were far colder in the 1980s.

            LOL

              1. By the time it’s gets to our latitude it will be 10/5 or 10/6, at that time we will be lucky if temps south of us are 60 degrees, and the 80 degree temps to even sustain a hurricane will be south of north Carolinas latitude, this is southern New England not Bermuda. 🙂 we shall see 🙂

                1. Charlie you are not reading. But that is ok. Now go back and try again. I never said it was coming here. What I said is that it that your October theory is wrong.

                2. Vicki stop being rude, I’m not here to fight, for some reason you are. Why? I don’t know why. Voice your opinion, don’t insult, I don’t insult

                3. Charlie…I am disagreeing with you because that is my opinion…because you do not agree does not make it rude. I admit to a touch of snark however 🙂

  71. Tk how much rain the next 48 hours?? I just heard 1-2 inches additional? Would u concur? Or disagree. Thank you in advance. If we did receive 2 more inches of rain that would make it 5 inches the last 3-4 days.

  72. By the way Charlie your logic that hurricanes cannot make landfall in New England in October is way off. And you don’t get a free pass if a storm had just lost tropical characteristics before landfall either, or was just below hurricane intensity. When these systems come through here they are most often accelerating and losing tropical characteristics, even in August and September. But THAT is one of the reasons they can do so much damage up here. If you don’t understand that, we can go into more detail about that later.

    Have there been a lot of landfalling hurricanes observed in New England in October? Of course not. We don’t get that many landfalling hurricanes PERIOD, and our most likely month is August, which makes sense climatologically. But you cannot rule out a hurricane landfall north of New York City just because it’s October 1 instead of September 30. That logic is so off base. Take it from someone who has been studying weather and climate for a long time, and worked with some of the best meteorologists in the business.

    And you have already been proven wrong. The Saxby Gale was actually a landfalling Category 2 hurricane that made landfall on Cape Cod on October 4 1869. And DON’T give me a line about it being that long ago. It doesn’t matter when it was. It happened.

    There was also a just below category 1 hurricane strength tropical storm that made landfall in New England on October 27 1872. Yes, LATE October.

    Weather and climate does not observe solid boundaries, my friend. You need to learn that.

      1. From Eric Fisher awhile ago

        Eric Fisher
        1 hr ·
        Models are taking a trend farther and farther east today – very encouraging! Still enough uncertainty to keep the East Coast in play, but chances are increasing that Joaquin could head out to sea.

  74. I think I actually just frustrated that we can’t get a friggen hurricane up here. It’s been forever!!!! I want one!!! Lol yes I know that we can get sub tropical storms here in October, there just not that bad,, from my experience.

  76. If this storm veers east/northeast as predicted by most models, Western Europe is in for a whale of an autumn gale. While it won’t pack hurricane force winds, my guess is that it remains rather potent with Gulf Stream enhancement before barreling into the southern part of the British Isles and Northern France.

  78. I was looking back to our comments earlier in the week …..

    The Monday 9/28 12z EURO was its one operational run that simulated that the upper low would capture Joaquin and bring it into the Carolinas.

    That was it. By the Tuesday 9/29 00z EURO, it was simulating out to sea and has been consistent ever since.

    It was the Tuesday 18z GFS and all the tropical models that then even mor emphatically simulated Joaquin to make landfall in the middle Atlantic. Thus, 12 hours after the EURO figured it out, the GFS and the tropical models actually got worse.

    In general, the GFS and tropical models needed a full 48 hrs more to get the accuracy of the EURO. This 48hr delay occurring while those models in error were sending a strengthening hurricane towards landfall.

  80. One slight …. it’s very, very small change in the last model set ….

    Somewhere from around 35 to 38, maybe 39 degrees North Latitude, I think there’s the slightest projected “bend” back to the north, maybe even briefly NNW for Joaquin before it resumes a NE track.

    It’s fairly pronounced on the GFS …… But, I think even the 00z EURO looks a slight bit closer to New England when Joaquin passes our latitude. (Still well offshore, but a bit closer than recent EURO runs).

  81. Good morning! Well we can say astalavesta to Jacqueline as it pass between 300-400 miles east of New England. It’s been lightly raining all night picking up .11 overnight. On and off showers all day today will keep things damp and cool. Not sure if we can work today. Tk what’s your thinking today for rain? Thank you!! 🙂

    1. Sure for our region but we should be praying for the folks in some of those small islands in the Bahamas they have been taking a pounding hour after hour. The damage must be incredible. It’s 3rd lowest mb to hit the Bahamas ever so it’s a beast of a storm and we should respect it.

Comments are closed.