Friday Forecast Update

93 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
Joaquin will pass well southeast of New England late Monday and Tuesday at which time our weather will be improving. Before that we’ll be locked into the northeast to east wind flow between a front to the southeast and a big high pressure area over southeastern Canada, with lots of clouds. Wettest weather will be today with only spotty light rain/drizzle over the weekend.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain return from south to north. Highs 47-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of light rain mainly Cape Cod. Chance of drizzle. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle mainly eastern and southern areas. Lows 45-55. Highs 55-65.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
Dry weather October 7-9 with a milder trend. Showers possible around October 10-11 and continued mild.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation near to below normal.

93 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Carolina’s getting pounded with heavy rain.

    NOAA was calling what might happen in South Carolina the next 2 days a 1 in 1,000 year rain event.

      1. South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia got pounded with heavy rain. I wonder if Joaquin will track out to sea or make it to New England and or Mid Atlantic states

  2. Thanks Tk 🙂

    It was just sprinkling last hour but it has evolved into a light steady rain. 🙂

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Euro, GFS, HWRF and the GFDL ALL have a similar path for Joaquin.

    The CMC and the NAM are still haning onto a landfall at NC.

    Quite a lesson in modelology, no?

    The Euro has done it again!!!!

  8. After a few hour break, a steady light rain has redeveloped in Marshfield.

    I have no idea how shallow or deep the ocean is where Joaquin’s center has been for the last 12 to 18 hours ….. but if its very shallow, I wonder if some of these islands are going to be in different spots (reshaped, I guess) than where they were 3 or 4 days ago.

  9. Ryan Mau Tweet

    @RyanMaue: ECMWF working on major “gamechanging” upgrade for early 2016 which will set stage for next gen NWP into 2020s.
    9-km

  10. According to a local Boston radio station this morning, it was reported that Jaoquin is expected to “graze” the Cape. It just goes to show how totally inaccurate radio weather forecasts are nowadays. Back in the day though, there were some really good mets on Boston radio and you could plan your day accordingly just as well as watching Don Kent on TV.

    1. Case in point…just got an email from a company we have systems hosted at and they are in emergency mode about the hurricane. Email claims it’s “traveling up the east coast.” The best part…this facility is in central NH!!!

  12. Ah, weather provides us with so much variability. While we in SNE had a very dry and warm September, the Netherlands and other parts of Northwestern Europe had the coolest September in close to 20 years and the wettest in 10 years. After a brief respite from the rain the coming days, Holland will likely revert to wet and cooler conditions, according to the KNMI (Holland’s national weather service). If my theorized correlation between dry, sunny and comparatively warm here and wet, cloudy and comparatively cool there holds we should see dry, sunny, and comparatively warm here soon. Of course, TK already said this, so we know it will happen.

      1. Didn’t even notice.

        So what is a forcaster?

        I know what a forecaster is.

        Forcaster must be someone who draws silly little lines.

    1. Brrrr
      Amazing how much the ocean has cooled off with just a few days of
      cooler weather, especially with a persistent NE wind.

      Boston Buoy 59.5
      Stellwagen Buoy 59.0

  22. Is there anyway that we can still be in a drought? My area is now only 2.5-3.0 inches below average to date. And it’s raining. looks like it is going to rain until noontime Sat. So by this time tomorrow we will be 1-2 inches below average to date. 🙂

      1. So if we r 1-2 inches below average tomorrow to date, we r still in a drought? That doesn’t make any sense. An explanation from Tk when he has time would be great. 🙂

        1. In case TK is busy….Try September 28 at 3:28 or thereabouts. He has already explained it very well. That is just once instance.

        2. You can’t really end a drought quickly. It’s a longer-term thing. Did the rain help? Yes. Did it help as much as it would have if the 3+ inches came over a week’s time instead of most of it falling in 12 hours on Wednesday? Absolutely not.

          Yes, the rainfall deficit is less, and I’m sure that the next drought monitor (next week’s) will decrease some of the moderate drought or even eliminate it and there will be some “abnormally dry” areas there still. And with what looks like a dry upcoming pattern, it’ll rapidly head back the other way. This is something I have explained before and in area I have worked in for nearly 30 years now as an agricultural meteorologist. It’s my specialty, so trust me, I know how this works.

          1. Thanks for the response, I guess I understand, so if we got 3 inches between tonight and tomorrow, and ended up having surplus to average to date, We would still have drought problems?

            1. We’d be in much better shape, but we’d still be prone to going the other way quickly with the upcoming pattern.

              1. It amazes me how quickly the lakes, rivers, etc can disappear. I haven’t been out today but expect tomorrow to see the mud covered. I’m curious to see how it lasts

      2. Perfect example would be like today. It’s 15 degrees below the average, but it’s completely normal for October

        1. So a departure of -15 is equaled to a departure of zero?

          I bet your math teachers loved you. 😀

          1. Ooops, you are here – sorry – didn’t mean to speak for you….although I sort of wasn’t because I was citing you 🙂

  23. The Carolinas and Virgina got pounded with heavy rain. I wonder if hurricane Joaquin will make it to sea, if New england or Mid Atlantic states will see remnants of this storm,

    1. Way out, but one thing that will impact New England and the Mid Atlantic, and even south of there, are large swells from the storm.

      The big rain was not a direct part of the storm but was semi-related in that it was a tropical “connection” of sorts.

  24. I guess this year October has come in like a lion and will likely go out like a lamb. I’m seeing a return to mostly 60s and even some 70s on the long-range, with lots of sunshine. Today, though, feels and looks like a day in mid to late November.

    1. Thank you JJ. This is my big take on it:

      “It is clear that our initializations are inferior,” Mr. Mass argued. “That’s the real problem. They have a lot more people and have taken a more sophisticated approach.” Differences in initialization were probably at play in the different forecast for Joaquin. “There’s a subtlety that the European center is getting right that we’re not.”

      1. I am a fan of Cliff Mass. That makes sense.

        Oddly, we are behind europe in other technologies. Hmmmmm

          1. Are you seeing temps back to sit outside weather? I’m debating puttin glass in porch windows or waiting. I’m thinking based on your comments I should wait.

            1. Yep. We might…stress might…be able to be in hum for a november. I’ll be out no matter the weather but warmer is a plus

  30. Geez Jacqueline is going to pass about 400-500 miles east of the entire east coast. Bermuda should watch it, as it passes near Bermuda it will be a cat 1 around 90mph winds, in its process of turning into a cold core system.

    1. Joaquin.
      And it will still be fully tropical warm core going by Bermuda, though far enough west to not give them much as it is a small system. It does not start to lose tropical characteristics until Tuesday as it passes our latitude.

  31. John, TK is the expert on winter predictions. But, I think that last year’s snow bonanza – especially given the fact that it mostly came during a very short period of time – and the non-winter of 2011-2012 are anomalies. They don’t often repeat themselves. I’m hanging my hat on a winter like 1997-1998, which was relatively mild, but did produce some snow and a few bouts of Arctic cold. Cold was never sustained that winter. The snow melted away fairly quickly, too, after each storm.

  32. I would take 97-98 winter. Get snow and melt it naturally so the driveway isn’t a solid sheet of ice until March :). And no ice dams!!! That was the worst part of last winter.

  34. GFS got an upgrade at 12z yesterday and then because of initialization problems NCEP reverted back to the prior version as of 00z today. No timetable has been set to install the upgrade again. The GEFS upgrade is still scheduled for 10/15.

  35. New forecast posted!
    I’m off on a drive westbound starting about 9AM. Spending noon to late evening at Six Flags New England. Looks mostly rain-free but breezy/mostly cloudy/cool. That’s fine – parking and admission is free for 4 of us. 🙂 I’ll check in mobile a couple times!

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