Saturday Forecast

85 Comments

2:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
Sprawling high pressure north of New England exerts enough influence to keep most rain out of the picture here in southern New England this weekend, but with not quite enough push to get rid of all the cloudiness. There will be some lingering patchy very light rain today as a remnant of the moisture source to our south (producing very heavy rain in the Carolinas) but this risk will diminish as the day goes on, and then precipitation will be limited to mainly patches of drizzle in eastern areas from low level ocean moisture as a healthy northeast to east air flow continues. This will continue to some degree into the start of the new week though the winds will turn more to the north with time, all this as Hurricane Joaquin passes well to the south and eventually east of southern New England by Tuesday. What we will see from the overall air flow and added to by the hurricane will be high seas offshore and big waves and swells coming into the shoreline areas, resulting in some flooding at high tide times in prone areas. Though cloudiness may linger into the early part of the week, the threat of rain will be pretty much non-existent as dry air works down from the north.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Patchy very light rain anywhere morning and midday. Patchy drizzle coastal areas. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts.
TONIGHT & SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows 45-52. Highs 60-67.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows 47-54. Highs 64-71.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows 47-52. Highs 60-67.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
High pressure brings bright and dry weather October 8 then moves offshore with a warm-up October 9 with fair weather to start and a shower threat late as a cold front approaches. High pressure brings fair and cooler weather October 10 and milder October 11 – a nice looking weekend. Fair/warm October 12.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
Shower risk to start this period then a return to dry weather. Briefly cooling then moderating.

85 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Watching forecast carefully for Next Saturday, 45 people coming to birthday party for my son’s 6th. The theme is Ironman, and my wife is a terrific planner. We did not think we would get that many yes’s from the invites but several people replied back saying no way would miss your birthday parties bc they are the best 🙂 we have multiple activities planned but praying they can happen outside.

    I see TK’s forecast calls for a nice weekend, GFS says front moving through late Friday and early Saturday. Praying it either moves through quickly or the high suppresses south. Cross your fingers.

      1. Maybe Ironman, with his incredible superpowers, can push the front through in time for a wonderful autumn day for your son, family and friends!

      1. I have chapter tests to correct and mid-term grades to get in by Monday 2 pm to keep me busy all weekend. I know you know how that feels, Tom!

        1. Sure do …. Good luck …. I have a pile of math tests from yesterday, to start into. Our progress reports are due just after Columbus Day weekend.

          1. So here I am typing on a weather blog instead of correcting! I am as bad as some of my students! HaHa!

          2. This is why I shake my head when folks justify lower pay for teachers by saying they have several months off between vacations and summer break

            Thank you both for being a wonderful influence in our kids lives.

  7. Thanks tk 🙂 3.87 since Wednesday, the pool has over flowed, currently taking water out, closing it tomorrow. 🙂

    1. Brant Rock Village, high tide is at 4pm. Splash over probably btwn 2 and 6pm.

      I’m sure you know, but I would advise anyone not to park against the immediate sea wall, as there’s always the danger of waves throwing rocks into the air.

    2. Not Tom but everybody always usually goes to brant rock and parks along the beach on ocean bluff you can’t miss it.

  9. Current Logan rainfall deficit = -5.53″

    My bet is that we will end the year 2015 in a fairly large deficit precip wise.

    Do you concur TK?

  10. Pressure on Joaquin, which yesterday had risen to around 945mb, is back down to 937mb on the latest recon plane dropsonde.

  11. Heavy drizzle and raw wind. TK I hope it is not the same there. I spent too many days standing outside at horse shows in this weather to know this rarely feels good after a few hours.

    2. Not convinced of that at this time. I know the odds favor that, but I’m not there yet. May be by months’ end or mid next month.

    1. Got some Dramamine®??
      You’ll need it.

      Would they cancel the cruise? I think they will IF it is too rough.

      1. Been on both the Odyessy and the Spirit of Boston.
        Enjoyed both of them. As long as it’s not too rough, outside
        weather does not matter. Went on one in December when it
        was cold out. It was still great!

    1. I’m not ready to make my prediction just yet.

      Last year I thought I went high with 94 and I was 14 inches under.

      IF and I say IF you were to force me now WITHOUT all the information
      I require, I’d come in WAY high at 120.5.

      How do you like them apples????

  18. Hope some of the big snows could come my way this winter. Missed out on the blizzard only get 7 inches when the forecast was for 2-3 feet. Of all places southeastern CT had the big totals. A part of the state that does not get big snowfalls.

    1. The above is from: WQAD-TV
      Moline-Rock Island, Illinois/ Davenport-Bettendorf, Iowa United States.

      So take it as you will, BUT, it does depict one scenario that concerns me for
      this Winter. If one goes by consensus, this scenario represents about a
      .05 to .10 probability of verifying. (5-10% chance of occurring)

      I just want to see some signs that point to that scenario before I make my
      Winter prediction. IF I don’t see it, I’ll lower my prediction drastically.

      1. I might be a tad pessimistic on that probability. Perhaps it’s
        a bit higher than that, but you get the idea.

  21. Wind has been picking up the last 1/2 hour or so. Can actually hear it now, where as
    prior to now, didn’t even know there was any at all. 😀

  23. Joaquin has become one of the most impressive storms in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin. On the edge of Cat 5 status, no storm on record has ever been this strong, this far north, this late in the season. In a super El Nino year, no less. A favorable upper level environment has helped it a lot. However, and I’m sure they’ll be plenty of discussion about this afterwards, I think you’d be hard pressed to argue climate change didn’t play a significant role. The SSTs it is over are record warm. Never, in a normal year at this time, could they support a 155mph hurricane. We’ve totally changed the game.

    1. Pretty amazing stuff.

      Hope Bermuda Escapes. Would NOT want this thing to pass over
      that island. A track just to the West would be devastating. Hopefully, it
      remains far enough West.

        1. “Offical” track takes it “about” 150 miles West of Bermuda. It wouldn’t take much of a forecast error
          to bring Joaquin over or near the Island. Let’s hope
          NHC track is pretty much on target.

  25. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Hurricane Joaquin is the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic since when?
    A. 2008
    B. 2010
    C. 2011
    D. 2012

    Answer later today.

  32. A good friend of mine said this to me the other day when it was apparent Joaquin was heading east; “They couldn’t predict one hurricane, but man-made global climate change predictions are taken as absolute fact.”

  34. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Hurricane Joaquin is the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic since when?
    A. 2008
    B. 2010
    C. 2011
    D. 2012

    I believe the answer is B, 2010 and the hurricane was Igor.

    1. Interesting. Thanks Longshot. I figured it meant one that didn’t make landfall. Did Igor? But Sandy wasn’t a hurricane at landfall..or I didn’t think it was. So confused

    1. The friends I mentioned above tell me that those they know on then island started prep in Ernest early yesterday. They’d done basic prep several days ago

      1. I think they know how to deal with hurricane.

        generally. Construction is superior compared to some of the Carribbean islands.

  38. Just under 8 inches of rain in charleston according to Wunder. Thunderstorms expected to continue for a while. Lots of power outages and many roads closed per local news.

  39. I am seeing a good amount of blue skies this morning. I hope it’s still there when the sun is high enough to dry things out.

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