Tuesday Forecast

57 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
Other than a cold frontal passage Wednesday night that you will only notice for its making Thursday cooler than Wednesday, and another cold frontal passage that you will notice a little more because of its clouds/showers on Friday, not much else will be going on other than great weather this period.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind light NW.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-47 inland valleys, 47-52 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-72. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs in 60s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
A shower risk around October 14 otherwise dry weather. Variable temperatures averaging out to near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
No change to the overall dry pattern with temperatures near to above normal.

57 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Looks like the SST temps have dropped quite a bit with all the upwelling from the persistent NE winds. I was hoping I could get in the water one more time here along the coast of RI.

      1. Still 63 South of RI. You could get into the water with that
        temp, however, that was well off shore. Could be considerably
        cooler in shore.

  5. Good moring.

    I will say this, today looks to be a 10 for this time of year!

    Seems we have had more than our share of 10s this summer/Autumn.

  6. Thanks TK. Yes a near perfect day and you are correct JPD we have had a lot of them.

    What is everyone’s thoughts on Saturday afternoon. Look fine to me but wanting other people’s opinions. Thanks

  7. Despite a regime of mild and dry overall we will see some early season short shots of cold. This is a hint of one component of our winter pattern.

      1. Agreed. In October, at least some accumulating snow is almost guaranteed above 4000 feet in Northern New England. On average Mt. Washington (6288 feet) has about 18 inches in the month of October.

        The cold impulses we will likely get later this fall and into the early part of winter will feel especially cold, given the overall mild pattern. The ups and downs may actually bother people more than a constant cold (that we had last year and the year before). I say `bother’ referring to those who do not like winter.

        1. We have had snow here two times prior to halloween since 2007 when my first grand was born. One a coating and one GREAT

  10. I love snow but not before Halloween like in 2011. I want to enjoy fall and finally starting to see some color where I am. Once the trees are bare and I am done bagging the leaves bring on the snow.

    1. Any accumulating snow in October for SNE will ensure below normal snowfall for the upcoming winter. That seems to be an unwritten weather rule…although I don’t know if TK would concur with that. 😉

  11. TK – I have an interesting thought. Is it possible that we could actually have more snow events than rain events this upcoming winter? My reasoning is that with the overall mild & dry pattern there would be no moisture to produce any serious rainstorms but any bouts of cold would have a moisture supply available, especially in March as you suggested in your brief recent outlook. At the same time, I do understand of course that snowfall overall would end up below normal.

    Also, I like the deep yellow background to the blog TK. Nice and fall-like. Thanks! 🙂

    1. It’s possible, but not likely.

      I think we’ll have below normal precipitation but about an equal amount of rain vs. snow events, just not an abundance of either. We may be left between the streams (northern jet often too far north to bring a ton of clippers on the right track and southern jet too far south much of the time except for the occasional bend up the coast).

        1. Of course TK, It’s weather, anything is possible. For him to say that is irresponsible and simply a shameful ratings grab. Your very opinionated about your profession and commonly voice your discontent with some, without naming names. If he forecasted or implied that we will get a snow storm in 7 days, would you have a problem with that?

          1. So let me get this straight…A TV met talks about the possibility of the temps hitting 80 next week (and it has hit 80 in October before) and you think that’s irresponsible and shameful? Really? I could see if he were forecasting a 3 day heatwave with temps in the mid 90s and telling everyone to watch out and stock up on water, etc. Also as far as gaining more ratings from that simple statement…I doubt it. One might say that your post is just trying to stir up the pot? Als

            1. Keith, if their news cast has low ratings what could happen…… He is no different than 80% of the mets out there. Its more about entertainment and less about science / accuracy.

              I love it when a the mets describe a weather event by saying 4.5 million people effect or in harms way.

              Its just too much!

              1. Coastal…did Eric really say that?? That 4.5 million people are in harm’s way due to 80 degree temps or is that your interpretation of what he said? I agree that some TV mets are pushed by the ratings game and at certain times of year are driven to hyperbole but somehow this one time doesn’t seem like one of them.

          2. I’m not sure you understood my explanation of that in the past. I’ll give it again later. Off to work now.

  13. Most years in Southern New England or Boston area’s 1st accumulating snow comes in December at some point. Ugh, don’t want to think about it, let’s enjoy Fall 🙂

      1. Most years it’s been after mid November. Boston’s average first 1/2 inch of snow is December 5, with the suburbs running around 2 weeks earlier than that for first measurable snow.

        There hasn’t been a loudly discernible trend in snow firsts and lasts in recent decades. It just remains highly variable.

        1. Most but not all. I only started paying attention in mid 1980s when a friend said pre nov 11 and I thought she was wrong. May not have all been accumulative …to me the first snow is equal to eight feet 🙂

          1. I’ll never forget the early snowstorm on November 11 1987. It was COLD that day and we had 4-6 inches of fluff snow. That’s not something you see very often. 🙂

                1. Thanks. Those two,years are blurred. I should have known 1989 cause we shoveled the shell of what was to be our newest addition

            2. Was that the storm that started as rain around Veterans Day and then we had thunder and a change to snow? I have that memory and the change over was around 2 am in Boston.

    2. Boston’s average first 1/2 inch is December 5.
      Boston’s average first 1 inch is December 9.

  14. Sudbury river area that I watch was up some and now heading back to mud. I’m curious to see the Charles watershed area in holliston when we head to Dana friday. It was still mostly grass after rain mid last week but up by weekend.

    2. Hehe. I LOVE MASH. We have the dvds and are about to watch in its entirety after finishing Bou Meets World. Now there is a combination.

  16. Hope everyone is having a good week!

    Been thinking about some longer range weather today, I know TK has given a few seasonal thoughts in the past couple days. Not sure I buy continued near to above normal temps for October. It’s already off to a very cool start. October is usually a cool month during strong El Ninos. The longer range pattern I’m seeing is more “cool with warm shots” than “warm with cool shots”. There are strong signals for a serious burst of warmth mid next week as discussed above. The month will probably average below normal though.
    Further out than that, mostly just based off the ENSO since an event on the level of what we’re seeing really becomes the dominant force driving global weather:
    A variable November, probably near “normal” but with an assortment of everything, including some snow especially inland.
    And from there I pretty much agree with TK- a blowtorch December and January, and probably a warm February too. March tries to cool down but by then we’re already turning the corner of the seasons anyways. Snowfall for the season below average, likely 45-60% of normal (~25″ for Boston). I will be very surprised if we end up above average for snow, it just doesn’t happen during strong El Ninos. The correlation is 100% as far as I know in terms of strong El Nino breeding below normal Northeast snow, small sample size but the science behind it lends confidence. Mother Nature gets the last say though, of course!
    Won’t even speculate on next spring/summer 🙂

    1. Very nice discussion and well-reasoned out.

      Yes the temps for October prevent a bit of an “issue” because of the chilly start. But it is a long month and next week as well as the week after look like they will end up with + departures. Shots of chill will be brief and passing. It’s like the see-saw will spend much more time on the mild side but come over the cold side with a thud only to bounce back to the other side quickly.

      If it does end up above normal for the month, it won’t be nearly as large a departure as we saw in September. For now I’m going to go with persistence and stay to the mild side. I did the same thing in cutting back on the “drought-ending” rain of last week. Did we cut into the deficit? We sure did. Did we end the drought? No. We just delayed it a little…

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