66 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

1. Thank you.

2. Good morning and thank you.

   Another Yawn day in the weather department. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

   Wake me up when things get interesting. 😀

3. Thanks TK !

4. Thanks tk 🙂

5. Thanks, TK.

   October in New England is unique. I often think of the pilgrims and how they must have felt in October of 1621. They had arrived in November 1620 to a harsh winter of ice, snow, and cold that they were not accustomed to experiencing. They then waited for spring to come and it didn’t, at least not the kind they were used to seeing. Finally when the warmth and summer arrived it was brutal and stifling for the Puritans who wore mostly woolen clothes. But, then they were greeted with what must have been perceived as God’s blessing to this group of dogmatically religious people. Their trust in divine providence gave them an autumn they had certainly never seen. I really think that October 1621 provided the pilgrims with hope and resolve that they could make it here, in spite of the odds which were stacked against them.

   1. Excellent. Nicely stated.

6. Interesting take on this upcoming Winter. So there is clearly disagreement out
   there.

   http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/10/07/forecasters-say-cold-snow-could-return-toward-end-coming-winter/wztLbFtnyLQ3g3FPmunt7K/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Afacebook

   1. I’m curious to see what Cliff Mass has said or will say about winter. He had predicted lots of snow for our area last year and I thought he was wrong. Silly me.

   2. Mild to start and colder with more snow toward end is what TK said…no? And mild December overall is not new IMHO. Ski areas have been struggling for years. Have I mentioned I think the seasons are shifting 😉

7. From AccuWeather
   After the winter of 2014-2015 brought brutal cold to the northeastern United States, this season is set to be milder overall, but particularly during the early part of the season.

   “We just don’t know exactly yet whether or not we’re going to see the pattern turn cold and snowy,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. “…There is an opportunity that [the weather] could change on us as we get into February and early March.”

   Regardless, the Northeast and mid-Atlantic can expect fewer days of subzero temperatures than last year. February of 2015 went down in the record books as the second-coldest February on record for both the region and for eight states individually, including Pennsylvania, New York and all six New England states.

8. Thanks for the update TK! Is this baby poo background color new? It’s been a while since I’ve viewed the blog on my work computer.

   1. Pretty gross, isn’t it?

      I “think” it is a conglomerate of all possible leaf colors.
      I “think” that is the subtly TK is conveying to us.

      😀

      1. Glad you guys like it. 😛
         Most of us like to think of it as October Orange. 😉

         1. I think Ace is preparing himself for the real thing 🙂

9. I actually think there is agreement – consensus – that the latter half of the upcoming winter will be the cold and snowy half. Whether this pans out, we’ll see.

   There was general consensus that the latter half of the summer of 2015 was going to be the warm half, and that panned out.

10. A winter with a split personality perhaps and one where the snow haters will love the first half of winter and the snowlovers will love the second half.

    1. Or snow lovers will hate this winter as the mild air May for the most part win out. If I was reading right I thought Tk had said even clippers will struggle to get in here with the flow .

       1. Snow lovers north of here have pretty much hated every winter since it messes big time with their livelihood

11. The 12z GFS seems to be around +12C at 850mb for next Tuesday, with a decent amount of wind to mix up the column.

    I believe the 00Z EURO was similarly around +10 to +12C for Tuesday also.

    We are probably starting from lower morning temps and are working with a much weaker sun.

    Still, 70F or better seems a reasonable expectation from this far out for next Tuesday.

12. I’d rather have the snow on the back end, kinda like the heat on the back end, daylight is gaining rapidly during feb and mar melting the snow fast, same with 80’s-90 in late aug Sept when daylight are rapidly decreasing. Perfect!! 🙂

13. I think the snow haters are going to be happy this winter. I hope I am wrong since I am not a snow hater.

14. here is the latest Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover map. It does not indicate
    snow depth, which would be nice. None-the-less it is expanding. (to be expected)

    http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2015&ui_day=279&ui_set=0

15. I’ve looked up in several places what the ratio of snow lovers to snow haters in America, it’s about 75-80% snow hater, 20-25% snow lover, I’m sure no one is shocked by this. 🙂

    1. Where did you find this info?

       1. Oh it’s fine. I always take stuff like that with a salt grain. Besides I actually would think it would be more like 90% / 10%, but with a fraction of that 90% disliking it actually liking it for when they go skiing. 🙂

          Either way, love it or hate it, if you live where it happens, then you gotta deal with it. 🙂

       2. Sorry Charlie. You made the claim, you get to cite the source.

          Bottom line is, however, what is your point? Liking or hating has little to do with anything. It will snow. If 85% of,the people are made miserable by something that is inevitable, it doesn’t say a whole lot for our society. And why In heavens name do they live in a climate they hate.

16. We should have a contest on 1st 1 inch of snow accumulated in Boston. I say 12/29

17. Aside from using analog El Nino years plus a rough understanding of what big picture conditions El Nino usually brings, didn’t we learn last year that it truly is impossible to guage what a winter will bring.

    I’d assume there were some interesting assumptions about how winter was going to play out, even in January last year, prior to what began on January 24th.

    1. Agree but this possibly could be a decent strong El Niño

       1. Close to 1982-1983.

    2. I’m with you Tom…

18. I will be surprised if the almanac if correct for this winter. If they got this right good job to them they got lucky.
    I am not shocked with the percentages who hate the snow. My question would be if you didn’t have to drive in the snow to get the work would you love snow. A lot of people I know like the snow but hate driving in it.

19. Oooo don’t look now but the 12z GFS gives southern NH a coating of snow on the evening of October 18.

    TV guys better get on air with this breaking story! 😛

    1. It’s getting to be that time of year.
       1st occurrence of snow for Boston is October 9th, I believe.
       It was sometime between 1972 and 1975.

       1. It happens. And it doesn’t really say much about much of anything, other than it’s cold enough at that time to produce snow, for however brief a time it may be.

          Of course I have no idea if snow is going to fall on October 18 in southern NH, but it just gives you the idea that there is a trend to colder shots of air, which one would expect at this time of year. 🙂

          1. For sure. My comment was just to remind that
             it is nearly that time of year when snow can occur
             even in Boston. Not saying it will, just that climo
             says it can. 😀

             1. YES and I agree 100%. But I think it will snow early in some places this season, despite the overall pattern.

                I can already see the headlines now…………..after a few snow showers visit earlier than “normal”.

20. NCEP’s CFS Monthlies have been in full support of the long range idea we have been discussing here.

21. Absolutely spectacular day. Too many top 10s to even count any more….maybe 280 😉

    1. I have 365 top 10 days a year…366 next year. 😉

       1. Yep and guess what today is 🙂

22. 1982-83 = 32.7″

23. Weather enthusiasts will talk any weather any time. 🙂

24. You do not like Massachusetts and you live here. You do not like this blog and you post here regularły. With all due respect, Charlie, what is your definition of crazy?

    1. 42% of the people that live here are willing to move, I like it here, but I’m one of them 🙂

    2. I love the weather, hate the cold

       1. Hahahahahaha. I don’t suppose it would help to point out cold is part of the weather you claim to love.

          42% hate the weather and live here and you think this blog is crazy….think about it 🙂

          I’d ask you again to cite your numbers but know you won’t

          1. Vicki, I don’t make s### up, hahaha!! You believe what you want lol 🙂

             http://www.wbur.org/2014/04/30/gallup-massachusetts-residents-want-to-leave

          2. You make many lol

             1. Charlie please note I NEVER questioned. I asked for a citation because I was interested. Please make sure to read before you accuse and in this case insult

                Now please go back and read my comment and explain how you think we are crazy on a weather blog for discussing weather and the folks who hate snow live in a snow area and are sane? Then help me by explaining how you love weather but hate cold which is weather.

                I’m not questioning. I’m just curious since the comments seem to contradict and am looking to you for clarification.

25. The consensus on the ensembles is to add 1 to 2 inches to the rainfall deficit during the next 2 weeks in Boston, and I see no reason to dispute it. Maybe it will actually hit some people that the drought is FAR from over.

    1. I was by the Charles River watershed in holliston and it is headed back down and quite low but still above where it was before last weeks rain.

       1. Absolutely would have gone up somewhat, but will drop again next couple weeks…

          1. Agree. My guess is will be back to where it was within 7-10 days

26. It could be, and the first snow showers could visit parts of the region before the end of the next 2 weeks.

    Welcome to New England, where we may not have as many severe thunderstorms as Texas, but our foliage kicks Texas’ ass! 😀

27. Some may be interested in the so-called undercast phenomenon that one can see from the summit of Mt. Washington:

    http://www.boston.com/news/odd/2015/10/07/watch-clouds-roll-over-the-presidential-range-time-lapse/NOXswVuAE10LfIa8ZumjcM/story.html?p1=story_hp

    1. Thanks JJ. I saw and shared on FB but so,glad you shared here. I could watch it over and over

       1. Hi Vicki, Thanks for letting me know that you had shared already with others on Facebook. Btw, I’m Joshua, not JJ.

          1. oops so sorry. I thought I saw JJ. And I love that you shared here. It is amazing.

28. TK – Any downpours Friday evening?

    1. Possibly but short lived if they occur.

29. TK supporting your comment the other day about SC flooding being bad but not unheard of, a friend tells me he has not seen it this bad since Hugo. He lives on one of the rivers…darned if I can remember whether Ashley or cooper…and his wife’s car flooded but not his house.

    1. Yes. Hugo was a powerhouse and an express train.

       1. But not 1000 years ago 🙂

          Just got another email from him. He is about two blocks from area that had 24 plus inches in my pleasant and said things look pretty good there also. Sure was good news for us

          1. Mt. Pleasant. Not my

30. Visit the NEW post and comment there. 😀

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