Thursday Forecast

50 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
Weather changes courtesy a fast-flowing polar jet stream during the next several days. First, high pressure drops down from eastern Canada and over New England today, having delivered a shot of cooler air after a mild day yesterday, but bringing plenty of sunshine with just a few passing clouds. A quickly-moving disturbance will pass north of the region Friday night and early Saturday, dragging another front through. This one, unlike its predecessor, will have more moisture with it and bring a few rounds of showers from west to east between midday and late evening Friday. Quite a bit of wind will also accompany the passages of this disturbance and front. Though some cloudiness may linger as the front slows down offshore for a low pressure ripple, expect a dry day Saturday along with plenty of sun overtaking the sky and a cool and gusty breeze. High pressure comes right across the region Saturday night which will be a very chilly night, producing the first frost in some locations. Sunday and Monday (Columbus Day) will bring fair weather and a warming trend as high pressure shifts off to the south and a west to southwest flow sets up.
TODAY: Mostly sunny – few passing fair weather clouds midday then less sun evening from higher clouds in the western sky. Highs 58-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH through midday becoming light variable afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy – increasing high and some middle clouds west to east. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable evening, light S overnight.
FRIDAY: A bit of sunshine eastern areas early morning otherwise mainly cloudy. Episodes of showers developing west to east late morning on. A few brief downpours possible. Highs in the 60s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH but occasional gusts of 30 MPH or greater possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with episodes of showers, diminishing west to east late. Lows 45-50 except lower 50s seacoast region of NH and eastern MA. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Clouds lingering early morning far eastern areas with even a shower around Cape Cod, then remainder of day sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost. Lows in the 30s except lower 40s immediate shoreline. Wind diminishing.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. W breeze.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. WSW breeze.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s. SW breeze.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
Low pressure attempts to move up from the south but probably misses “wide right” or “out to sea” while a weakening front approaches from the west October 13 with mild air and a slight chance of showers. Return to mainly dry weather thereafter with 2 shots of cool to very cool air possible.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)…
Minimal brief rain risk may visit a time or two from disturbances in an otherwise dry pattern with variable temperatures averaging around normal.

50 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  10. Thanks, TK.

    On train to Philadelphia for a work conference – yes, I avoid flying like it’s the plague – and the NE scenery is its October best. Nothing beats October in NE, nothing. Not San Diego, not South Beach, not Cococabana, not Cote d’Azur, nada, rien, niets, nichts.

    The Kimmirut webcam is great. My son says I may be looking at it a bit too much, as I’ve begun to `know’ the inhabitants of the dark green house on the left and I follow the `summer’ renovation activities of the people who live in the white/grayish house on the right. My son says it’s kind of creepy. I think he’s right. My fascination with the far north is troubling. In any case, they’re in winter mode and will be for the next 8 months.

    2. Have a safe trip, Joshua. I am still chuckling about your Kimmirut obsession…probably because I’d do the same thing.

  11. Might have some thunderstorms in Philly tomorrow. SPC highlighting that area in the marginal risk for tomorrow.

    1. Thanks, JJ. I saw that, too. I have my umbrella ready. It’s a 1 mile walk from my hotel to 30th Street. I may take a cab tomorrow if it’s raining.

  12. I haven’t been to Philly since 2006. Nice city and I was able to see a Phillies game while there.

  13. I bookmarked the Kimmirut weather cam some time ago – I forget who posted it on the blog. But looking at it today – call me crazy – but the snow looked Nice. Yes, to me it looked nice. Thanks, JP Dave and Tom for having me look at it today. I look at it occasionally.

    But today is a beauty, for sure. I am seeing areas of color around but it seems to be scattered – at least in the areas I’ve been which are mainly MetroWest.

    1. I agree, rainshine. I looked at it and wondered how you could see anything less than nature’s beauty.

      I did watch for Joshua’s friends to appear so I could say hi but think they must be having lunch 🙂

      1. One of them smokes. You’ll see him standing on a small platform outside the house, smoking Marlboro’s. He looks Inuit. I believe he and his wife have a child, who rides around on a little bike from June to September.

  14. JJ, Philadelphia is a nice city. A cross between NYC and Boston, which is an odd mix, I know. I think Philly is a blend of both. It’s not as safe as Boston or NYC, and it’s not as well planned as Boston or NYC (urban planning).

    I like the restaurants, Rittenhouse Square, museums, etc … Rabid, angry fan base. Worse than Boston in terms of negativity.

    1. I’ve been through there a few times on Rt. 95 before….

      I Actually was in Philly and stayed there when their casinos
      first opened. Trying to follow my GPS with a rental car was Comic to say the least. Trying to get back to our Hotel, the GPS took me through one of the terminals at the Airport. HILARIOUS!!! We blew by as passengers were
      being dropped off and picked up. And I thought Boston was bad!!!!!

      Had a good time. My Daughter and Son-In-Law visit about once a year.

  15. Playing the year-long loop from the Kimmirut Weather Cam is a great illustration of how short the warm season is there…

  16. Reviewing the 12z data I come to these conclusions…
    There is really no need to change any mode of thinking as we head through the next couple weeks. I did cut back just a bit on the persistence of the mildness, but we will still trend mild versus chilly. But the chilly shots will be noticeable and fairly regular, and this looks like it’s going to go for a while this way as we are northern stream dominated. My guess is this is the pattern we’re settling into for the remainder of 2015, but with a subtle increase in the southern jet stream with time. But for now, polar jet dominates, subtropical jet is flickering slowly to life…

    1. Let’s rustle up the right combo of the 2 for a Winter from Hell!

      Yeah, that’s the ticket. Why not? We’re tough New Englander’s, aren’t we?

      THINK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OR Mt. SNOW, if you wish.

  18. Saturday forecast made the Mrs happy, which means I am happy. 50 people and raining is not a good combo though we have the space to do it but it would have been tight.

    Thanks TK

  20. Hadi, I’ve been thinking of your son’s party all week. Looks like weather will cooperate on Saturday!

    In Philly now, what a difference 280 miles makes: It’s 74 and a bit humid here. Left Boston and it was 56. It’s probably in the low 60s and crisp in Boston right now? Yes, there’s a reason I prefer New England, except of course in spring when Philly already has tulips and it’s 58, while we’re suffering from a raw easterly breeze, mid 40s, and dirty snow piles.

    The walk to the hotel took me through Rittenhouse Square and down Locust Street. Really pretty area, several gems of buildings. I’m sweating, though. Tomorrow it may push 80 in Philly, I hear. I arrive back in Boston after midnight and it’ll be in the 40s. Yes, 280 miles can be quite a distance in terms of differences in weather. The most pronounced differences are perhaps in the Bay Area, where it can be in the 50s in SF, 70s in Berkeley, 80s in Oakland, and torrid 90s 50 miles east.

  21. New Drought Monitor is in. And as expected WE REMAIN IN DROUGHT. Should come as no surprise to be honest. Boston should be around -7 inches soon.

    1. Well that’s not the entire story. I think what stands out to me with the new update is the dramatic decreased coverage of abnormally dry areas in the eastern states. Also to be noted is the increased area in western mass where conditions are not dry as well as the decreased coverage of moderately dry areas in the east. Safe to say that the changes from last update to this update have been positive.

      http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/WeeklyComparison.aspx
      http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/WeeklyComparison.aspx

      1. Which I stated would be the case. I said “beneficial” but not drought-ending. Now watch what happens to this after 2 weeks.

        1. You know my drought guage(lawn)
          Says we are not in a drought and never
          Were. However my other guage (CharlesRiver) says it is bad very very bad
          Go figure.
          Honest. My lawn never turned brown.
          It showed a few sign of stress her and there.

          1. Mine didn’t turn brown either becauee we adopted your technique. Saved tons of money and required a whole lot less work 🙂

            1. Grass was meant to just sit there and respond to nature. Never could understand all of the fuss. I ‘m just
              Wired differently I guess.

  23. Thanks Joshua for thinking about the party all week :). Thanks for the well wishes from everyone. Should be a great day.

    My grass is beautiful and green.

  24. I don’t even take drought serious here as 90% of new englanders. Keep drinking your water, and water your lawn every other day 35 min’s. 🙂

  26. This was posted by Cindy on Channel 5. What is she trying to say? I see “Rain Impacts” at the top then below that “Chance of Rain”. To me I look at this and think “Damn, I better not be on the road between 4pm and 8pm.

    http://imgur.com/ZgZlQEP

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