Friday Forecast

114 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
No changes to previous discussion. On to the forecast.
TODAY: A bit of sunshine eastern areas early morning otherwise mainly cloudy. Episodes of showers developing west to east midday on. A few brief downpours possible. Highs in the 60s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH but occasional gusts of 30 MPH or greater possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with episodes of showers, diminishing west to east late. Lows 45-50 except lower 50s seacoast region of NH and eastern MA. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Clouds lingering early morning far eastern areas with even a shower around Cape Cod, then remainder of day sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost. Lows in the 30s except lower 40s immediate shoreline. Wind diminishing.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. W breeze.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. WSW breeze.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s to near 80. SW breeze.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)…
A mainly dry pattern with variable temperatures near to below normal with cool shots coming early and late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)…
Minimal brief rain risk may visit a time or two from disturbances in an otherwise dry pattern with variable temperatures averaging around normal.

114 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Steady light to moderate rain for most of the morning so far here in Plymouth, NH. GYX radar shows some very impressive echoes overhead but it doesn’t seem to match the actual intensity- wondering if it may be hitting some sleet pellets? Heading home to Wrentham for the weekend later.

    SPC has most of SNE in a marginal severe risk area for isolated damaging wind gusts, and they also have a 2% tornado area for parts of CT and the mid-Atlantic. HRRR does suggest some convective potential later but I have doubts about it. Very little instability.

  5. I have my doubts to. If anyone sees a strong or marginally severe storm I would favor the interior. That marginal risk needs to be pulled back further east. Yesterday the SPC had a small area for marginal risk for the Philly Baltimore areas. Today they have expanded to include almost all of SNE.

  6. From SPC parts of their discussion.
    AS MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES DECREASE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
    INITIATION/COVERAGE…SLGT/15%-WIND AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED
    OVER SOME PART OF MID-ATLC AND/OR SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION IN
    SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS.

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY IN A CORRIDOR FROM NEW
    YORK AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
    REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR
    SEVERE LIMITS…AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
    NORTHEAST.

  7. Given that its October, when we see that marginal threat …. what aspect of the thunderstorm do we think they would want people to be aware of ?

    Is it damaging wind possibility ?

    1. That and the “possible” spin up.
      Has our friend at the Taunton NWS introduced wording? Haven’t even looked yet. Yawn yawn. let me peek.

      1. BINGO!!!!!!!!

        SO WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL JUST SEE HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY
        WINDS THERE IS A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED STRONG T-STORM. IF LOW
        LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN MODELS SIMULATE THERE
        IS A VERY LOW RISK THAT A STRONG STORM COULD YIELD A BRIEF ISOLATED
        TORNADO.         HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY
        SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

  8. Gil Simmons earlier said today he would not be surprised if there was a warning with one or two storms today that had gusty winds today.

  10. Same discussion from Taunton
    THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP YIELDS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-
    1 KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE
    EVENTS – WILL THERE BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR AN
    ISOLATED T-STORM WITH STRONG WINDS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
    NOT IMPRESSIVE…0-3KM AND 925MB-700 LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL 6-
    6.5C/KM WITH A FOCUS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE IN
    WESTERN-CENTRAL MA. THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
    ADVECTION WITH SFC DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE L60S TODAY ACROSS THE
    AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING INTO THE L70S. BOTH ANOMALOUS
    FOR EARLY OCT.

    WHAT COULD BE THE WILD CARD TO POTENTIAL STORMS IS ADDITIONAL JET
    ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATER TODAY YIELDING A 100
    KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE
    THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS WELL INCREASE WIND FIELDS. THE HI RES GUID
    SUCH AS THE ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN QPF
    AND MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
    OF THE COLD FRONT.

  11. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon in Connecticut. Gusty winds possible with a low chance for a tornado.#FirstAlertCT

  16. Actually we are right on the edge of isolated severe storms. NWS is wise to mention the slight risk because if they don’t and… well you know the rest.

      1. Even so, HRRR has a pretty decent slug of convective rain
        with plentiful lightning. Something to monitor, I suppose.

        I don’t get very excited this time of year, but perhaps this is
        an anomalous set up.

  17. A very well organized leaf eddy just crossed the parking lot I’m in here in Reading. There’s your brief SPIN UP! 😉

    1. 😆 😆

      Good one TK. Always thinking!

      It didn’t make it to Boston just yet. I’ll be on the look out for it.

      Thanks

  20. 12z NAM showing best instability across the Philly area and central southern NJ.
    Some instability in western CT.

  21. The sun is out where I am. Its been breezy for about the past hour. Stepping outside I don’t feel the type of humidity we feel when were going to have thunderstorms.

  23. Sun in Milford. Looks breezy. Foliage is starting to become quite vibrant here compared to framingham.

    Charles River watershed in Holliston was down a bit from Wednesday.

  25. Without the wind it would feel warmer outside. Sun is in and out in Framingham and Sudbury. The sky, ‘though the clouds aren’t that spectacular at this point is giving off a strange but pretty light to everything. I’ve seen this before at this time of year. Early autumn, with/without colorful foliage can be very beautiful as the seasons start to change.

  26. WSI Energy Weather Retweeted
    Dan Leonard ‏@DanLeonard_wx 4m4 minutes ago

    Chalk one up for the #GFS – Much colder late next week per the 12z ECMWF. Welcome to fall. Finally.

  27. Warm and a bit muggy in Philly. Don’t think it got to 80, but it felt sticky and summer-like.

    In train now moving north, no rain deficit here. In fact, still some puddles from previous rain events.

    After a stopover along the way I’ll be back in Boston after midnight. Looks like I’m in for a temperature drop-off.

  29. I was listening to a news station, I believe CNN, they mentioned that it would be cooler 2nd half of Oct, only to be warmer in Nov, than the temps in Oct, also said the east wouldn’t see there 1st snow till well into the winter. would u concur tk ?

    1. What I do agree with is fairly variable temperatures for October including several good shots of chill. The mean ridge ended up further west than I initially thought it would.

      The overall pattern is still fairly mild and this will re-establish itself in November going into early Winter.

      As for “first snow” that is not so simple. Do they mean “first flakes”, “first inch”, etc? That is anyone’s guess. You can get snow easily even in a “non-snowy” pattern if things happen just right.

  30. Had to come home to meet the plumber 1t 12:30.

    Witnessed TK’s Leaf “spin up” In JP on the way home.
    It was a good one. Took up 1/2 the road and was about 25 feet high.
    Must have gained strength on the way down from Reading or Woburn
    or wherever the bleep it formed. 😀 😀 😀

    1. I have wetlands in my property that are wet 2 months of the year and dry the remaining 10 months.

      1. Mine have been dry for over a year. Before that they were only dry during the summer months.

  37. You 2 should go on the road as a comedy team.

    You have much in common. Even though you don’t always get along you’d have no trouble teaming up. And when you have a real argument that would just be even more funny for the people to watch.

    Hey I’ll go to the show… if the tickets are FREE!

      1. Wanna buy me a ticket then? Wait, no.

        I should get a free one in exchange for the free blog. That’s a fair trade. 😛

                1. Went there for ice cream a few weeks ago…good stuff.

                  I live pretty close to their original location in Hingham

    1. Just ended here. A few light rain patches may still come across. I had a whopping quarter inch. Canoe or kayak may be the preferred mode of transportation here this evening. 😉

    2. It was enough that all the people running into Stop and Shop in Norwell got soaked at that perfect time.

      1. Probably running into the Stop n Shop to stock up on bread and milk due to the impending 3 day monsoon 🙂

        2. They should have known better and been on WHW. I did use the word “downpours” in my forecast for today. 😛

  40. FYI. New market basket come to RTE 1 in Plainville.

    Also if you have a chance ro check out Wegmans in Westwood you should do it and leave yourself plenty of time. It is a experience! New one coming to Natick!

    1. We experienced wegmans in Canandagia NY years ago for Macs uncles 85 birthday. I was surprised they were having a bday celebration at a supermarket. It was amazing and wegmans is no supermarket as we know it. I like the ones on NY better but the ones here are great. I’m excited one is coming to Natick

  41. John Lennon would have been 75 today.
    His son Sean turns 40 today.

    Shot of accumulating snow showers in the mountains in about 1 week.
    Shot of first flakes as far south as Boston area about the same time.

    Not entirely unusual for this time of year and the pattern we’re in now.

  42. There are going to be a whole lot of fake internet “mets” that get really excited when they see the 384 hour forecast on the 18z GFS. 😉 They’ll be warning to have the snowblowers ready.

    1. GFS is up to want I call its 384 hour fall fantasy. Always showing those fantasy storms at hour 384 that most of the time come out of the gulf and carribean.

      1. It’s actually pretty significant, which is why we’re placed in slight to moderate drought across most of SNE even after recent rain events. Just because the ground got wet a few times does not mean everything is suddenly better. It is worse that it is stretched over 10 months versus a shorter term dry spell.

        Drought is a long term occurrence.

        You can temporarily recover regarding water supply when you have some significant events, but erasing a long term agricultural drought is something that is harder to do and virtually never occurs quickly without suffering other kinds of damage. In my career I’ve covered droughts on every continent and in virtually every region in the US at one point or another and other than a few regional variations in how things react, it’s pretty much all the same.

  45. We are thinking of getting a new four legged family member. Rascal has been gone just over a year and the house feels empty without a dog. Has anyone had good experiences with rescue programs? We would like a 1-2 yr old on the calm side because it it easier with mac and with the grandsons. Maybe yellow lab cross but really any medium size

  47. Frost Advisory issued for very early Sunday.

    Colors peaking in northern Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.

  48. From NWS out of Upton, NY. First snow for mountains of Northern New England late next week.
    THE ECMWF
    INTERESTINGLY SPINS UP A CSTL WHICH WOULD PUT DOWN SOME SNOW
    ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND A ROUND OF MODERATE
    RAIN HERE.

    1. No they do not. The water from last week is all flowing to,the ocean, breaching dams, etc. Thanks Tom for posting. One report yesterday said it would be quick moving but I have not seen an update

        1. It doesn’t appear to zipping right along. Looking at the
          loop, it is moving, but not all that fast.

          Of course my eye are getting old, so who knows.

          Another beautiful day in a long string of them.

          We’re going to pay at some point.

  53. Lawn care question for y’all:

    Is it too late to plant grass? I have some winter damage on a few places on the lawn. I’d like to throw down some loam this weekend and plant grass seed there.

    Charlie? Anyone?

    1. I’m the wrong person to ask. I say leave it alone. The surrounding grass
      will eventually fill it in. 😀 I don’t spend a dime on the lawn.

  54. I’ve updated the blog. And finally the weather fooled me enough that I have switched to a colder outlook for this month but not a wetter one. The long term dry pattern will continue.

  55. Yet another Oklahoma “FrackQuake”!!!!

    Magnitude-4.4 Earthquake Rocks Oklahoma, Kansas
    Mark Leberfinger
    By Mark Leberfinger, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
    October 10, 2015; 8:25 AM ET

    A magnitude-4.4 earthquake shook people in Oklahoma and Kansas early Saturday morning.

    The temblor occurred at 4:20 a.m. CDT Saturday (5 a.m. EDT), with an epicenter 11 miles southwest of Medford, Oklahoma, and at a depth of 4 miles, the United States Geological Survey reported. It was initially listed as a magnitude-4.8 earthquake.

    http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_10101241_screen-shot-2015-10-10-at-8.41.30-am.png

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