Monday Forecast

33 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
If you are lucky enough to have today off, you win, especially if you planned something outside. A little bit of Summer will linger in the air as high pressure to the south sends a warm southwest wind across the region. Still watching a low pressure area that will travel out to sea to the south but close enough for some clouds and perhaps a shower over Cape Cod early Tuesday. The rest of the region will have to wait for a passing cold front to bring a shower threat later Tuesday, but that does not look very widespread. Fair weather returns for midweek with a cooling trend behind the cold front. Another disturbance will move rapidly across the region Friday with a few more showers possible.
TODAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 75-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH early becoming variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers Cape Cod early. Risk of showers elsewhere later in the day. Highs 60-65 Cape Cod, 65-70 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, S to SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)…
A dry but very cool weekend October 17-18. Fair with a warming trend October 19-21.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)…
Mainly dry weather continues with variable temperatures heading into late month.

33 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks for the update TK! Today isn’t a paid holiday for me but I took it off since my wife has it off. Lots of outdoor activities planned 🙂

  3. Thank you TK. May be near 80 huh? Eric missed by a day?

    No paid holidays when self employed but I also took it off.

    2. It was a decent call. Only 12 hours off on timing and tomorrow we’d make the same run. The offshore low will mess that up.

      1. Yes it was a good call which doesn’t surprise me. And I picked a lousy day to put windows in porch but it is done and that is a good feeling

  4. Thanks TK !

    Today equates to around Feb 28/March 1st sun strength.

    I don’t know if this is correct, but my sense is that in the last 24 to 48 hrs, there has been a change in the long range outlook (10 to 14 days) from persistent chill to a short shot of chill followed by a warmup.

  8. My football team is in a lot of trouble with the injuries to Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, and Lance Dunbar. We need to start Matt Cassel. I am tired of looking at Brandon Weeden and his conservative ineffective play out there. Make the QB change while there is still some chance for the NFC East.

  9. Cowboys first team to sack Brady 5 times in a half. Hardy looked great for missing the time he did. We just could not sustain drives. 5 out of 6 drives in first half three and out. Your giving your defense very little time to rest. As I said they need to make the change in QB after the bye while there still alive for NFC East title. If they keep Weeden season will go down the drain. You could see why Weeden is 5-19 as a starting QB.

    1. Go figure with a 70%+ completion rate, you would think there would be
      better results. Not sure Cassel will be much better. He’s not going to have
      that completion rate. Either way, they have to generate more offense, as their
      defense will be fine.

    2. Did u see what adjustments the Patriots made coming out in the 3rd quarter? They move Gronk and put there offensive tackles in gap B, and moved Edelman on the other side. Genius!!! Dallas had no answer after that. If they played another quarter, it would have been 44-6 🙂

  10. As far as the weather great day shaping up. The city is very quiet . I think lots of mets making a big deal out of the cold for next weekend .

    1. Because it will probably be quite cold compared to average. One day may struggle to reach 50. It’s all relative.

      2. I’m with you TK. Big deal. It happens almost every
        October. 48-50 for a high on Oct. 18, isn’t out of the ordinary
        at all. Why all the fuss? It’s just cooler than it has been.
        Keep on your campaign! We’re with you!

  12. Tom Brady has the HIGHEST QB RATING of any regular QB in the league.
    Only one person has a higher rating but has only thrown 6 times, Kellen Clemens,
    so that does NOT count.

    Tom Brady NE QB 121.5

  14. Beautiful weekend weather-wise. Looks like a decent week, too. I have to travel on Friday, and yet again there’s a chance of rain. It seems like my travel days almost always coincide with rain or chance of rain.

    JJ, the Cowboys will be fine in that division. Giants were lucky to escape with a win yesterday against an inferior 49ers team. No other team in that division is particularly good. Besides key injuries, Cowboys’ number one problem is bad coaching, in my opinion. The offensive play-calling was poor. So plain vanilla and predictable. Had the Cowboys mixed it up in the first half (how many times did they just hand the ball off on 1st and 2nd down without any wrinkle in the play?) game would have been closer.

  15. Last week, when a local meteorologist did one of this weather forecasts on the air, he mentioned that next Tuesday he would not be surprised if some areas approached or reached 80. I saw that weathercast. I know what he said. This, of course, was based on the best information available and your most educated guess at the time. EVERY meteorologist making a forecast that day had access to the same information and though their interpretations may not have all been identical, all the ones I talked to or saw were of the same opinion about the early part of this week. Was he the only meteorologist to mention 80 as a POSSIBILITY, not a solid forecast (keep in mind he had a 76 posted on his 7-day)? No he was not. And I can assure anybody who thinks otherwise that he did not mention 80 to “get ratings”. How is saying the word “eighty” going to suddenly make people tune into the station? Come on, let’s be realistic here. Reaching 80 degrees in October is not even close to impossible and though it may not be somewhat common, it’s not entirely uncommon either. And I myself was discussing the very valid possibility of approaching or reaching 80 one of the days early this week, even if I did not post it on my blog until a couple days ago when I went for a high of 75-80 today.

    There is NOTHING irresponsible about what this or any other meteorologist did on their extended forecasts at that point. They are high temperature forecasts, days in advance. And just because they have one number there because of the limitation of the graphics and/or the wishes of the news directors, any reasonable person realizes that there will be a temperature RANGE across an area. Just today, I’ve seen high temps ranging from 65 to 79 across southern New England. Do you SERIOUSLY think that if someone went on air or online and said “highs 65-79” that they wouldn’t take heat for it? Let’s get real. We live in a region in which there can be high variability in temperatures (lows, highs, any time of day or night) from one area to another. And this is dependent on conditions that can either be nearly uniform or highly changeable across the very same region.

    So let’s do a little comparison/challenge. Meteorologist “X” on his/her day 7 forecast puts a “76” for a number and mentions that there is an outside chance of some places reaching 80. Meteorologist “Y” on his/her day 7 forecast puts a “75” for a number and mentions some areas may reach the upper 70s. This in fact did happen last week in the Boston TV market. Is one of them irresponsible for making a forecast and the other not? Or are they both irresponsible? The actual answer is, NEITHER one is irresponsible here. They are making a forecast that mentions a single temperature for reasons stated above applied to an entire viewing area. The average viewer should carry enough intelligence to know that not every place in the region is going to be the exact temperature that is posted there. I would assume it is safe that anyone will realize that they can’t get it exactly right that far out, but what should our expectations be? Meteorologists study their accuracy on a regular basis. The NWS is required to do so, in fact. They calculate average error for every parameter they forecast. So let’s look at one: high temperature. The errors take into account all available forecasts and locations to come up with a fair average. Regional error calculations are done but for the sake of simplicity we’ll use the national average. For high temperatures, the average error for a 1-day forecast is 2.5 to 3 degrees, for a 2-day forecast is 3 to 3.5 degrees, for a 3-day forecast is 3.5 to 4 degrees, for a 5-day forecast is 4 to 4.5 degrees, for a 6-day forecast is 5 degrees, and for a 7-day forecast is 6 degrees. And those are AVERAGE errors, arrived at by larger and smaller errors which will be as they are based on the location and weather pattern at the time. So if you’re expecting near perfection beyond day 1, you have very unrealistic expectations. Forecasts ARE guides. They are trying to predict the future.

      1. Reply to Matt’s post above…

        As for what you see in the pattern, for a while we’re going to be northern-stream dominated with many frontal passages, frequent temperature changes, and light precipitation events. The southern jet will get active as the El Nino Winter arrives but much of it will probably stay south of us. We’ll see if later in the Winter we can start mixing the streams a bit, but it’s going to be a stretch. There are some calls out there for a negative AO/NAO but I’m not sold on it. I’ll get into that in the days ahead.

  16. I did find BB’s forecast of 46F interesting for next Monday and feel like it ties in to tonight’s topic …..

    First, if we take the current avg temp to be 63F, then that’s basically a similar outlook of more than 15F from the average (in this case, below) as 80F was a bit more than 15F above. Similar timeframe too, 7 days out.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 to 4 days from now, the trof won’t be forecasted to be as deep as it is now and then of course, the surface cold won’t be as chilly and it will end up being 53 F or 54F next Monday. Still well below normal by a bit more than 10F.

    For me, if what I described actually happens, then I would consider BB’s 7 day forecast to be a success because it will have nicely foretold of a much cooler regime to come.

    I guess that’s what my expectation is for stuff in that 5 to 7 day period. Big picture trends. I guess I save the true accuracy for days 1-4, with a little more room for error on day 4.

  17. well, i will say this, while i been taking small breaks from chemistry …..Yuck.. i been looking at several long range models and current patterns my god i think we can be seeing storms traveling up the spine of the Appalachian mountains or mississippi valley/ohio river valley/great lakes dragging cold fronts across the region with rain/snow shower opportunities with shots of colder air and times of warmer air as well as weak clippers effecting the area as well, Pattern going through december? just an early guess on what I am seeing… anyone else see this?

  18. Well I just tuned into this blog and I can’t follow the conversations, but from the tone, it’s probably a good thing I can’t. 🙂 On another note, the B’s are going to drive me crazy all season … once again! Ugh!!

    1. Longshot, most of the posts have been removed by my moderator who gave up sleep to try to clean it up as best as he could. And the way this blog will be policed is now going to be a little different.

      Everyone with good intentions will have no issues. Anyone without now control their own destiny through their own actions.

      It’s better off you just start out fresh on the next post. 🙂

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