Thursday Forecast

56 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
The stair-stepping downward trend in temperature is underway and will continue as cold fronts pass by midday Friday and again sometime on Saturday. A little uncertainty exists for Saturday, with some hints at a trough sitting over the region for several hours as low pressure quickly develops offshore. If this comes to fruition, then Saturday would be on the unsettled side, at least in part. The coolest air of the season so far arrives this weekend and lasts into Monday when a turn-around will get underway, as the cool shot will be short-lived.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear early then increasing clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing showers morning and midday then partly to mostly sunny rest of day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening then variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a chance of showers of rain and mixed rain/snow, especially northern and eastern MA and southern NH, then clearing. Highs 48-55.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Frost likely in many areas. Lows 28-35.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53.
MONDAY: Sunny. Lows 25-35. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)…
Dry weather with a strong warming trend October 20-22. A few showers early October 23 then fair and cooler for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)…
Mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to mostly above normal.

56 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Not only is it your opinion, but fact. 4 times this month they minned-out at 48. Today, 47. 🙂

      1. 46 at my house when I got up and my alarm didn’t go off so I got up at 7:45 instead of 7.

        I’ve been as low as 42 already this year.

        It was so nice, even though I looked at the thermometer, I left
        the house WITHOUT a jacket. Go figure.
        It’s beautiful out there. Another 10

  5. Good morning and Thank you TK.

    So, something possibly brewing for Saturday. Hmmm
    Interesting. So it will be a case of cold enough aloft, but will the duration and intensity
    be there to cool the column and bring snow flakes to the surface???

  6. Northern Hemisphere snow coverage

    http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2015&ui_day=287&ui_set=0

    Anomalies

    http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2015&ui_day=287&ui_set=2

    So based on what Judah Cohen said yesterday, Even though there are no real anomalies for Siberia, there is good coverage of snow. Cohen says it is rapidly
    expanding.

    I agree it is expanding, but from I have observed over the last 2 weeks is that
    it “appears” to be perfectly average. In other words, unless something changes in
    the next few weeks, it does not look to me that October Siberian Snow will
    have a major factor this Winter.

    But we shall see.

  7. No heat, yet! 🙂
    But, I’m seriously thinking that will change this weekend when nighttime lows are in the mid-low 30’s.

    1. We’ve had it on. My wife gets cold easily. Sometimes I do as well, it depends
      upon my state of mind. I often can will my body to be warm.

      Last week had a complete overhaul/tune up of my two (2) heating systems (1 for each unit) They needed it badly!!! The units are both relatively new under 15 years compared to what they replaced (the old Asbestos covered enormous
      octopus type boilers)

      1. Our 1st floor elderly tenant cranks his heat up in morning, so we warm up very nicely up here! Otherwise, I’m sure we would have done the same 🙂

        1. We are upstairs as well. Our son lives down stairs.

          And my wife and I can both officially be termed “elderly”. 😆 😆 😆

  9. Here is the difference between hyping something and looking at something with a proper meteorological perspective…

    HYPE: Cold blast may bring first snow to Northeast! Hundreds of thousands in the path.

    REALITY: Conditions early Saturday may be unsettled with just enough cold air for some showers of snow and/or rain.

    It really is THAT simple.

    1. Indeed. It’s a shame all of the outlets can’t adopt the same
      principle. Oh well, such is life these days.

      It’s sad, but social media is both good and bad.

      We’ll learn eventually. We always do. Sometimes it just takes way too
      long. (Insert political rant here!)

        1. Or they truly like the hype even though they complain about it. We all have a little of that in us, I think. Either way. It isn’t going to change.

          That’s what I like about this blog. We focus on our game (that can sometimes cross into topics other than weather) rather than another’s game. It is what the Pats do so well.

  10. TK,

    When you have a chance, would it possible for you to comment on
    Judah Cohen’s remarks about Siberian snow vs. actual current data
    on Siberian Snow.

    “Looking longer term towards the winter we follow Siberian October snow cover extent, Barents-Kara sea ice extent and tropospheric precursors to try to predict the winter mean AO state. So far this October Siberian snow cover has advanced more rapidly than normal though not as fast as the two most recent Octobers.”

      1. Thanks.

        I am not questioning his reasoning of a Siberian snow connection.
        Just that he says it is advancing more rapidly than normal, yet
        current data is not really showing any anomalies. That is my problem.

    1. The above seems to keep the Northern Jet “mostly” North of our area, with
      perhaps very occasional treks into our area.

      This is a prediction and nothing more. It is based on science (Mostly El Nino,
      I’m guessing). But it is NOT gospel either.

      We shall see.

      1. I find it interesting though that the Gulf Coast states will actually have below average temps this winter assuming I am reading the map correctly.

        Does this mean that parts of the deep south could end up with more snow events than here and other northern tier states?? Hmmm…

  13. The foliage in and around Boston is coming along now albeit on the “dull” side. If my memory serves, last year this time the city’s trees was still mostly lush and green. It really didn’t get going until nearly Halloween and immediately thereafter.

    Those who have recently purchased snowblowers will likely be gathering more dust than snowflakes this time around. I heard that snowblowers have actually been flying off the shelves over the summer due to the fear of last winter. 😉

    Actually I had no idea that snowblowers could even be purchased during the summer months.

    As for heat, I have turned mine off/on to take the early morning/late night chill out of the house. I suspect that EVERYONE will be turning theirs on come this weekend. I would say the A/C season is now officially OVER. 🙂

    1. AC season is long done. Welcome to the heating season.

      I wouldn’t be so quick to totally dismiss Snow for this Winter.

      El Nino Winters can be mighty tricky around here.

      Just remember that we are “close” enough to the Northern Jet, that
      at anytime we could be plunged into cold to coincide with a potent
      moisture laden Southern Stream (El Nino) system to come barreling up
      the coast.

      Does this happen? very occasionally? Very often? once or twice? Not at all?

      We just don’t know. If it never happens, we could get away with hardly any
      snow at all, perhaps some at the back end of Winter. On the other hand,
      it “could” end up a surprisingly snowy Winter if this happens on a more regular basis Or the Northern stream buckles and delivers intensifying
      clippers Or a combination of both.

      Clearly, the odds favor a milder less snowy Winter. I agree totally, however,
      I have been on record as stating that it does not necessarily mean it will
      be so.

      For example, in my gambling black jack days (professional card counter),
      I had 2 huge bets out with double downs on both of them. I ended up
      with a twenty on both hands. A twenty wins a huge percentage of the time
      (I used to know all of the odds and percentages, but I have not played in a long time) I “think” it is something like 85% or even more. At least 85%.
      You think I won those bets? No freaken way. The dealer drew to 21
      and swept all four (4) bets of mine off of the table. Point being, even if
      Noaa or anyone says there is an 85% change of hardly any snow, does NOT
      mean that will happen. 😀 😀 😀

      It’s still a tad early for a prediction. I’m still watching.

      I just have a feeling there will be more snow than people think.

      We shall see.

    2. Actually, as much as I like snow, I wouldn’t mind a break given what we went through last winter (110.6″). However, I don’t want to see puny amounts like in 2011-12 (9.3″) either. Somewhere either side of normal (43.8″) would be fine with me. 🙂

      1. Lol I would be fine with a little snow around Christmas, then a warming trend. 🙂 I at one time for a long time loved the snow, absolutely loved it, the last 10 years maybe slightly less I don’t like it anymore, not sure what happen, IMO it’s just a inconvenience. If winters were more like say Denver or Nashville where they can get snow, but it’s very normal to have mild periods in the 50’s and 60’s throughout the entire winter. Last winter sucked!!!!!!!! IMO 🙂

  15. I’ve seen some of you mention snow? I don’t see it on any of the models, tk when and where is it going to snow? Is this in the nh mountains?

    1. Certainly in the mountains. In central New England a disturbance may produce rain/snow showers Saturday if it holds together, which it may not. If it’s maximized and timed early enough, parts of northern MA would see a few drops and/or flakes. Very outside chance. Not unusual for October to be honest.

      The cold shot will be most notable later this weekend into Monday and then a quick turn-around next week.

  16. JPDave…
    I think the rapid advancement in snowcover up there needs qualification. Last 2 years it started earlier, and was also much deeper by this time in most of the region. It’s closer to normal now, which is basically a coin flip in the correlation for here. I do think there will be a whole lot of very cold air in eastern Canada this Winter that, when tapped, can make brief visits. But a northward displaced polar jet is going to make southern Canada and the northern US mild more often than not. The other question will be jet phasing. I think it may happen a few times, but more often than not, too late for big New England storms. This is the type of set-up, based on current and expected parameters, that we’ll have a shot at early snow and 1 or 2 larger storms somewhere (usually later) in Winter, with the quietest in the middle. There is still adjustment to be done to the outlook as we go forward through Fall and gather more info. And yes, NOW is the time to be thinking about the Winter FORECAST. Forecast is future prediction. Long range forecast is far future prediction. This is the time to think about it and mid or late November will be the time to finalize it. 🙂

    1. Thanks TK. Your assessment makes sense. I am happy to see that
      you agree with me that current Siberian snow is just about average.

      I am certainly thinking about the Winter forecast. I don’t have access to all
      that experienced mets have nor do I have the time to put into it. Therefore,
      Anything I come up with is part science, part gut and part wishful thinking.

      I truly hear what you are saying about the set up. However, I am not
      one to say never. I am still somewhat concerned about a Winter curve ball
      thrown at us from the great white North. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pPRaD6TKLc

      I want to see how the Siberian Snow goes the next few weeks and how strong
      El Nino actually becomes and I’ll put my predication in along with the rest
      of us.

      It’s pretty much a crap shoot anyway. 😀

  17. Drought Monitor says the drought goes on. I can tell you I’m not surprised in the least. Boston’s rainfall deficit for the year is nearly 7 inches. We expected another inch or so to be added to it during the last week and that’s exactly what happened. These are dry times folks.

  19. In regards to the heating, if you use natural gas and your company has a fixed price option for the winter months you should check it out. My regular charge last year was 1.01 per therm for the whole winter and the fixed price option if enrolled by mid October was 1.03 per therm. Didnt make sense to do it last year because it could only go down in my opinion. This year the fixed price option can be locked in at .32 per therm. In my opinion it will not go down much further and that is close to the late summer rate. I enrolled for the first time and will not cringe when the furnace goes on every time this winter.

    1. Makes great sense.

      We have oil. I always lock in at a cap but if price goes down, we pay less. If you can call it less.

      No heat here. Someone who will not come clean turned it one one morning a bit ago….that won’t happen again until nov 1

          1. I do draw the line at that. I can’t stand to be cold.

            I always said that they put furnaces in houses
            to keep the occupants warm in the Winter.
            What the bleep good is it if you don’t use it.

            My Brother and his wife live in Franklin, NH, about 30 miles North of Concord. They keep the thermostat set at 56 degrees all Winter. You blow “smoke” inside their house. Brrrrrrrrrr

            I could not and will not live like that.

              1. Mine around the same 67-70. I am going to have it on this weekend because I think it will be needed atleas overnight . Looking ahead though it looks warm with no cold like projected this week. Oil is to drop the lowest out of all the options I believe at 20% savings . I heat with oil .

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