Tuesday Forecast

123 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)…
Northern jet stream stays dominant with generally fast-moving systems, but the orientation of a front keeps it nearby for 3 days with lots of clouds but only a slight chance of rain showers through Thursday but temperatures that will vary somewhat as the front wavers back and forth. A cold front from the west will sweep through Thursday night, returning cool and bright weather late week.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight risk of rain showers. Highs in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of rain showers. Lows around 50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s north to south across the area. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH but may remain variable in far southern areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Best chance of rain showers evening or night. Lows around 50. Highs around 70.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 40. Highs around 50.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 30. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)…
Fronts may bring passing rain showers later October 25 and again October 28 or 29, otherwise the pattern will be dry with variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)…
Again no major changes to the dry pattern with variable but overall milder than average temperatures.

123 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    That was a somewhat stormy 00z GFS run. I don’t know if it’s reasonable, but it was interesting for east coast cyclogenesis.

  2. Thanks TK. Potentially interesting forecast period coming up. First week looks mostly dry with near to above normal temps as you’ve been correctly predicting. However, the tail end of the month into November looks muddled to me. Big typhoon recurve (“Champi”) coming soon in the West Pacific. We all remember what happened with “Nuri” near this time last year. Completely busted the warm November forecasts. We may see a trough with potential storminess dig in the East around 10-15 days out, which some of the models are hinting at like Tom said with recent GFS runs. As always though, tough to know much for sure that far out.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Interesting read, WxWatcher. Thank you also.

    If anyone wants to get a prediction in for snow for 2015/2016 season, please post on Contest Page at end. I’ll move yours over to there, Charlie. Thank you.

    1. Sorry – meant to ask for a more specific number when you are ready, Charlie, but I’ll put your comment there as a starting place.

      Do we have a November deadline? Was it the 18th last year? Or 11th?

  5. Good morning all.

    Interesting Wxwatcher and Tom. We shall see.

    Long range predictions are tough.

    re: Winter Snowfall prediction

    Vicki, I am not quite ready to make my prediction. I am really torn right now.
    I “think” I will be coming in High, despite all of the long range prognostications
    of doom and gloom for this Winter. Not ready to pull the trigger just yet.
    I may yet be convinced to be in the Gloom and Doom category. Time will tell.

    Please let us know what the official deadline will be as I don’t want to miss it.

    Many thanks

    1. No problem, OS. I was thinking of high also which may help you to change your mind since I am always at the very wrong end of the spectrum 🙂 And it will be quite a while before a deadline. TK can set that 🙂

        2. Matt,
          Hadi and I are working on that for you.
          We’re trying, but we appear to be bucking the
          incoming tide.

  6. I like these fall mornings. My only regret is that the foliage here is so dull that it doesn’t stand out against the grey sky as it typically would.

  13. I too believe that it is rather early for winter predicitions – but admittedly, I am kind of hoping for the High end. I would like to see a snowy winter – up until the end of March; then bring on the spring!

  14. Something to keep in mind: Dr. Cohen’s Siberian snow cover correlation is a predictor of temperature, not precipitation. Cold does not automatically translate to snowy.

    1. True, however, it is an essential ingredient.

      Of course we need to add moisture to that. 😀
      It should be abundant from the Southern Stream, but
      will there be phasing? OR will Southern systems lambast the Mid-Atlantic
      and pass out to sea harmlessly South of us?

      Who knows.

      We shall see.

      1. A whole lot of no-phasing IMO. But we’ll get a few phase-ups.

        It’s not going to be a snowless Winter. 🙂

        1. Don’t worry about it, we had way above normal rain and the rivers were flooding a few years ago, now we are behind, again it will even out. 🙂

          1. Charlie, it is our overuse of water through increased demand. It isn’t the current drought. Our worlds aquifiers are being depleted. It is important to look at the big picture and not the small one which is the immediate droughts. Yes they will even out but our overuse of water due to many factors, including pollution and exteme demand by an ever increasing population are depleting water worldwide.

  16. All models point to storminess on or about 10/29 or 10/30.
    Not that it would be cold enough for snow, but fairly significant rain none-the-less.

    Several runs in a succession now. Interesting.

        1. Skied there once in the late 60s.
          Conditions were brutal as there had been a thaw and of
          course a freeze just as I arrived. 😀

          1. Beautiful area. Mac’s uncle built ski camp on the side of a mountin in Morrisville about 50 yrs ago. His daughter owns place now. We have been lucky enough to use it dozens of times

            1. Awesome.

              Funny story. I went up there with
              a classmate from Northeastern University during a break in classes in March (1968?) He swore he was solid intermediate skier.

              We take a chair all the way to the top
              of Spruce Peak and he gets off and freezes. He was scared to death to
              start down the mountain.

              I try to coach him and convince him
              to proceed. No dice.

              I say, screw this and I skied to the bottom and took the chair to the top
              and he was still there.

              Finally I managed to get him to the bottom.

              Intermediate my rear end!!!!

              True story.

      1. I saw a glimpse of the movie trailer. I was not impressed by
        the bit that I saw. I’ll have to check out the whole thing to see
        if I change my mind. 😀

    2. Pretty cool stuff JPD. My opinion is we would be foolish to believe we found the only planet that can sustain life.

      2. I can guarantee you we are NOT alone in the universe.

        The problem is the vast distances between “possible” civilizations.

        We need to discover “warp” drive!!!!!

        Beam me up Scottie!

          1. Agree 100%.
            The universe is just waaaaay too large for it not
            to be so.

            And we are discovering that almost every star
            has a planetary system. Place a planet or
            2 in the “goldilocks” zone and we have a chance.

        2. I wouldn’t guarantee it, but be careful for what you wish for, if there is another life out there, they may not be friendly, and trillions of years ahead of us.

          1. Charlie,

            Who is wishing for anything. We’re simply saying
            we are not alone.

            Not for nothing, but if a civilization lasts long
            enough to be super advanced, then it is likely
            they would not be malevolent. I suppose it’s
            possible that there could be some sort of
            advanced evil out there, but I’m betting against
            it. 😀

  19. Dr. Cohen’s blog…

    There is no doubt that the doc has discovered a very strong correlation between Siberian snow and the amount of cold in at least parts of North America. But this year it’s not as clear-cut as the last 2. For one, Dr. Cohen says that though the snowcover is advancing, it’s at a slower pace than the last 2 years, so that leaves a little doubt as to where it is going in comparison. We also have El Nino to factor in this year, which we did not have the last 2 years. What I’m gathering from his thoughts so far is that he believes that there will be ample cold available for decent cold shots in the Northeast. But one question is this: Will it be persistently cold because of negative AO dominating, or will it just be occasionally cold because of stronger impact from El Nino keeping the jet streams more separated with a mild northern tier of the US including the Northeast? I think the answer is somewhere in between as these 2 forces will battle. Dr. Cohen does not comment much on precipitation, and it’s very obvious that between temperature and precipitation, the latter is much more difficult to predict in the longer term, especially using this correlation. For this, we’ll have to monitor the progress of El Nino as well as other factors going forward into November.

    There are too many uncertainties to be issuing complete Winter outlooks now. I understand that NOAA does it as part of their seasonal forecast package, which is standard for them. But as for a detailed forecast for Winter-upcoming, not yet. Give it about 4 more weeks and we should have a better idea. I still have initial leanings of drier than average because of keeping the streams separated more often than phasing them, but I’m hesitant to go persistently mild because of the recent developments in Siberia. As always, it will be interesting to see how the atmosphere organizes itself in the weeks ahead.

    1. Thank you for your thoughts on this. Very much appreciated.

      It is truly fascinating.

      It appears it will be a battle.

      Dr. Cohen seems very knowledgeable and puts together quite a bit of
      information and makes it available every 2 weeks or even more often if
      needed. Very detailed information.

      He was correct last year, but for the wrong reason.

      He predicted a Negative AO and NAO for the Winter, but in fact the NAO was persistently positive, yet it was cold and snowy and then some!! Go Figure!

          1. Me too

            Let’s do it right:

            Boston
            Worcester
            Providence
            Hartford

            And we “could” consider

            Portland, ME
            Concord, NH

            1. Great suggestions. I may actually have to do my research and come up with more than just lucky numbers….they don’t turn out so lucky in this case

  21. Thanks TK – I always thought that El Nino automatically brought us warmer winters with less snow and La Nina with colder winters and lots of snow, but as you mentioned the La Nina of 2011-12 brought very little snow (9.3″) and not much cold. I also always thought that -AO/-NAO meant cold & snowy and yet last winter we were in +AO/+NAO and ended up with tons of snow!

    Now I am confused just when I thought I had at least a decent understanding of these different phases.

    1. This is what I refer to when I say that all factors and indices must be taken into consideration when trying to predict the future. 🙂

        1. Because they were going to steal the Pats?
          Too close to Yankee territory?

          Why?

          Technically, the whole state of Connecticut is part
          of New England. After all, it is comprised of six (6) states and not five (5). 😀

        2. Seriously, Charlie?

          I won’t record numbers until TK posts rules. And then we can play by those rules 🙂

    1. I have a copy of his original work on these hanging around somewhere.
      I think my son “may” have it.

  24. We could get a ton of snow this winter or barely anything, nobody knows for sure and maybe this strong El Niño Is getting to much attention . Dr Cohen knows what he is talking about as do you Tk. Watch us get nailed All winter long.

    1. Therein lies the problem.

      Even if science says less snow and milder, a monkey wrench could be thrown
      our way.

    2. We will not likely have a “nailed-all-winter-long” set-up. We rarely ever do. Even last Winter…nothing of note until some cold in January then the big boom started the last week of January through February.

  25. If you are hoping for a terrible winter, you are essentially rooting for insurance cost raising’s, bad retail sales, and a overall slower economy. I know most will poo poo this, as I expect. im not taking a shot at snow lovers, just putting it into perspective so that everytime your hoping for that big one.

    http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/7469374

    1. Doesn’t matter how we root. Winter will be what Winter will be and there
      isn’t a damn thing we can do about it.

          1. I understand. They can post all the doom and gloom they want but it won’t influence the weather. 😀

        1. Well rooting is neither bad nor good. It’s just rooting. It still does not impact the outcome of the weather or the economy. 🙂

    2. No you are taking a shot at people who like snow.. Sugar coating it doesn’t change the reality, Charlie. Remember we are supposed to be respectful on here. Didn’t take you what…a week.

  26. Boston
    Worcester
    Providence
    Hartford
    Concord NH

    I think those would be good cities to do snow guesses for.
    Numbers would be official NWS data.

    Probably November 15 on the cut-off date. Any measurable snow that may fall at any of these places before that is fine but just know that the later you guess the more likely you can use this to your advantage.

    I’m holding submitting my #’s until after I have attended the SNE Weather Conference. 😀

    1. Tk, honestly, if you are going to include Concord, then include Portland as well.
      Else eliminate Concord. Just my 2 cents is all. 😀

      1. Yeah let’s get rid of Concord NH. I was there on August 15. I’m not even really sure why it’s considered a city. There’s nothing there. I stopped by the 250th anniversary celebration for the city and there were about 25 people there and the “fireworks display” fit inside a small van about the size of my car trunk. 😉

            1. That’s sad to hear. Concord was always a nice sleepy little capital city (although Montpelier is the best) and Manchester was always kind of dumpy…maybe it’s turned around?

  27. Connecticut is part of New England. My brother lives just outside of Hartford. Trust me, it’s more like New England than New York. Sports preferences don’t count. Geez, Maine might seem like its own country or even planet sometimes but even THAT is part of New England…aaaayup!

  28. Hartford averages 40.5 inches of snow during the winter. Last three winters have been above average.

    1. My family is very familiar with the Drake Equation etc. … We’re all into that stuff, especially my wife & son.

      1. Cool. Most people have never heard of that equation, except of
        course Sheldon Cooper of Big Bang Theory. 😀

  30. Accu’s Famous 45-day forecast has no snow through December 3 for my sampled area which was Woburn, and has above normal temps every day except 6 of them: November 20, November 26 (Thanksgiving), and November 29-December 2.

    Is this significant in any way? No, because it’s based on a model run. But I posted this just for fun. 🙂

  31. I’m taking a break from here. I am going to miss all of you who I don’t have comtact with on FB. I have enough going on that I do not want to come here to nonsense. It is bad enough that anyone has to justify Hartford is part of New England. But I don’t plan to spend the winter being told that if I look forward to snow On a weather forum that I am wishing for doom and gloom for mankind. Yes, Charlie, you win.

    1. Sorry to see you go Vicki and sure wish I could make you stay. Unfortunately I don’t have any magic powers that would make this better. I am grateful to have you on Facebook to keep in touch.

    2. Please sleep on it and reconsider.
      Please don’t let the actions (posts) of one ruin it for you.
      Don’t go!!!!

  32. Ok then
    24.6 Boston
    54.3 Worcester
    22.6 Providence
    27.9 Hartford
    56.7 Concord

    and I still don’t consider Hartford part of New England, but to be part of the contest I put it in. 🙂

    2. I guess I take the Hartford thing back that’s not New England, mostly in sports bc they don’t know who there rooting for, usually whoever is winning 🙂

  33. Some of the models have been consistant of bringing a strong storm up around these parts around the 29th. subtract or add a couple of days. Some solutions colder and warmer than others. Consistantly saying rain for southern new england but showing some snow for northern new england.

  34. Not going to take the bait. You all know what I’m referring to…Vicki I’m sorry to hear that you need to take a break. You are a well respected blog member. I don’t always agree with all comments, but I’m not going to poo poo them either. After all it is a blog. I know your husband has been ill and I hope and pray for a very positive outcome. Hope to see your comments again when you feel up to it.

  35. It’s a shame that others try to force their will here.

    Last week it was another blogger. This week it’s Chuckie!

    Geez

    To drive Vicki away, it’s a CRYING SHAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  36. It’s all good, if folks get offended because I say rooting for snow is bad bc it’s overall bad for the economy, which is fact, then so be it. I’m not being mean to any particular person, or did I mean to be. Most comments on here are opinions in some sort or another, my comments 99% of the time are no different. It’s a weather blog of all sorts. Some of the thing Vicki had said to me has offended me, I move on. What I say doesn’t mean it will not snow, or that you folks are truly bad. It’s ok!!!! Geez!! 🙂

    1. Charlie you constantly like to stir up trouble with everyone by posting stuff that half the time isn’t true and when people call you out on it you don’t answer. Stop trying to make trouble all of the time and just tell the truth and give your sources if someone asks. I am behind Vicki 100 percent here. You make comments half the time just to get people going.

  37. I turn my back and…

    Lovely.

    You know…..

    CHANGES COMING. I am not going to go thru this anymore. sorry. 😀

  38. The comment string will be deleted at the end of the night with the exception of a few selected comments that I and only I determine will stay.

    1. Not sure why you don’t just either suspend or terminate the perpetrator, this stuff has been going on and off for years here just bounce them out of respect for other bloggers . It’s that simple

      1. That’s all well and good until you get people trying to hack your email, web page, or looking for your home. I don’t trust much of anyone to be blatantly honest.

        That said, if anybody did attempt something, they’d be quite sorry to have ever entertained the notion. 😀

        1. Sad night at WHW.

          I am so sorry for all and especially you TK for having to
          put up with this.

          This blog is the best thing to ever happen around these parts and I for one would never want to see it go away.

          I must retire. Hopefully WHW will be here when I check in tomorrow AM.

          Have a good night all.

          1. If you think anyone is going to defeat this blog… NEVER!

            It’s not going anywhere. How I run it may change, at least temporarily.

            But I must say, 2 times in 8 days where the actual topic of the place was lost – NOT good.

            Some people won’t like what I do, but so be it. This place belongs to me before anyone else.

            It’s free for them. It’s not free for me to run it. It costs money.

  40. New post!
    Have a blast and behave!
    I have a ruler in my hand and I’m not afraid to use it. 😛

  41. They should be. Word press malfunction. Settings were tested overnight but comments were not shut off.

Comments are closed.