Friday Forecast

67 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)…
Back to the chill today as a fresh cool air mass arrives from Canada, along with some cloudiness to start the day then more sun with time as the air in the lower levels of the atmosphere dries out. Temperatures will be about 20 degrees colder than yesterday along with a gusty breeze adding to the chill. This will lead to a cold night tonight as high pressure noses overhead and winds drop off. The weekend will start bright and cold with lots of sun for much of Saturday, though some low clouds may sneak in off the ocean as the wind turns more northeast to east during the course of the day, and a more widespread deck of high to middle cloudiness will begin to move in from the west later in the day ahead of an approaching front, which will cross the region Sunday morning and midday with just a few rain showers possible. This will be followed by a new push of chilly air by Sunday night and set up a fair but chilly start to next week.
TODAY: Partly cloudy through mid morning then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32 interior valleys, 32-37 elsewhere. Diminishing NW wind.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy through mid afternoon then increasing clouds later in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers west to east overnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind variable shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers possible morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon with more sun to the northwest while clouds may linger to the southeast. Highs around 60. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-35. Highs 45-55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-35. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)…
Watching for a possible rain event later October 28 through October 29 and some of this will hinge on the future of the moisture associated with powerful Pacific Hurricane Patricia about to make landfall on the western coast of Mexico. Even if that moisture does not get involved, an unsettled weather event is still possible here during that time. Fair weather returns for October 30-31. It may turn unsettled again to start November. Temperatures variable averaging out near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)…
Fair weather returns early to mid period before another chance of wet weather arrives late period. Temperatures chill-off early in the period then moderate.

67 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you as always TK.

    First thought, Captain hoping your family is AOK. Hope they left the area.
    I will try to get some radars so we can tell what is going on down there.

    Next thought, Joshua, thank you for the interesting information about the vechicles
    seen in the video I posted last evening. I really enjoyed that.

  4. Thanks TK. I can’t believe Patricia. Never thought I’d see a real time 200mph intensity assessment from the NHC. Many of our modern methods- the Saffir Simpson Scale, Dvorak technique satellite estimates- are simply incapable of handling a storm of this intensity. Thoughts and prayers to all in its path.

    Will be heading home this afternoon for the Southern New England Weather Conference tomorrow. Anyone else going?

  5. Oh and I almost forgot. This morning, I noticed a post from Vicki.

    I hope this means: “WELCOME BACK VICKI”

    Knowing Vicki, she was probably so concerned about Captain that she chimed
    in, but still has not officially returned. I hope she has returned.

    1. Old Salty, my friend, you are a wise man. My original intent was indeed to offer support and prayers for Captain. I have not been reading here for multiple reasons. But I was asked by some from here who are on FB to read several of the posts – by you, Joshua and others. That and your comment here, OSJPD, make me realize how much I miss you all. Thank you all for your words of support and, Joshua, you gave me happy tears!! I came here this am to read posts because, as we all know, there is no better place on earth to find out what is happening with weather. I was concerned about Patricia. When I saw Captain’s post, my heart sank.

      Captain….my family’s prayers for your family will continue and we know you will have very positive news soon. If I may, one of my mantras of late is Let go…Let God.

  9. JP Dave, it’s at 0.38 on the video with “Roadrunner” that you’ll see the Citroen Ami. It takes a trained eye to pick up on these things. I’m a bit weird that way, I basically know what every car made in the 1950s and 60s looks like. My `sub-specialty’ is cars of French, Italian, and German origin. Over the years, the U.S. has imported relatively few French and Italian cars. For good reason, they weren’t especially reliable. However, they always (still do) look distinctive. Nothing plain vanilla about them.

    1. Thanks Joshua. When I get a chance I will search for that exact spot.
      Funny you mention those cars and specifically French.

      We once owned a brand new Peugeot (French manufactured of course).
      After a year or so, I started the car and there was an explosion and the
      hood went up several inches. When the dust settled I opened the hood
      and found that the battery had exploded. Sulfuric acid all over the
      engine compartment. That was fun.

      A few months later, the same thing happened to a neighbors Peugeot. 😀 😀 😀

    2. Saw it. It was quick that’s for sure, but after viewing the commercial, I could
      clearing see that it was the Citroen Ami. 😀

  10. Thanks for the encouraging forecasts and all of the best wishes.
    Still haven’t heard anything. Mom had been e-mailing me using the hotel wi-fi. I haven’t heard from her since supper last night. She also has her cellphone.

    The airport in Puerto Vallarta is still open as far as I can tell.

    I am sure if she can get me a message, she will.

    Ironically, my aunt’s name (my dad’s sister) is Patricia, and they were together the weekend of Hurricane Bob in 1991!

    The Thelma and Louise of Massachusetts!

    Updates as conditions warrant!

    Keep the prayers coming…

    CF

  11. CF, I am sorry I did not send you best wishes and prayers before. Better late than never, my prayers go out to you and your family.

  12. There is a positive being overlooked. Did anyone notice how small the radius of hurricane force winds is? It’s tiny.

    1. Nope, I was just concentrating on how close a path it would take to
      Puerto Vallarta, that is all.

      What you say is certainly a good thing, but Heaven help those in the path
      of the Max Winds!!

  13. JP Dave: Yes, French cars have been designed to be futuristic in design and style, and backward in reliability. Here are two ads featuring the Citroen Ami. The first ad is French, the other is German. Nice 1960s views of the French countryside and a `typical’ French family. The mountains shown must be the “Alpes Maritimes” as I recognize them and backpacked there using their hut (“refuge”) system in the 1980s.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLCIkxHleBg

  14. Hi friends…Heard from mom at noon. She borrowed someone’s phone and e-mailed me that they are taking shelter in a school. Now comes the hard part: waiting for contact after the storm. I think the worst of it will be in the dark at night. That’s very scary.

    Prayers for the poor souls who don’t have a shelter to go to…

    Thanks to all on this WHW blog for their uplifting thoughts this morning.

    I will keep you updated as I know more…CF

    1. Praying for your family CF.

      Vicki…I am THRILLED to have you here again. Of course, it isn’t as if we weren’t in contact these last few days, but you certainly bring a certain feel to this blog that was greatly missed. xoxo

    2. Excellent news.

      According to the Mexico official Puerto Vallarta weather.

      They expect winds of 60-80 mph tonight in Puerto Vallarta.

      In a shelter, hopefully, all will be well. And hopefully, the winds won’t
      even be quite that strong.

        1. According to the latest advisory, it is Moving
          DUE NORTH at 12 mph. That means It is paralleling
          the coast and MORE of a threat to Puerto Vallarta.

          UNLESS this just reflects another temporary jog and it
          will return to a more East or Northeasterly track????

        1. Eric Fisher
          1 hr ·
          Interesting that almost precisely 10 years ago, Wilma set the record for lowest sea-level pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic. Now today the lowest in the western hemisphere with Patricia. All-time leader remains Super-Typhoon Tip at 870mb in 1979.

            1. John,

              In terms of wind, it is the Strongest,
              so if that is what you meant, your were right on. In terms of barometric pressure,
              it is not quite the strongest.

  18. Not considering the 15 miles of coastline that get the fiercest winds ….. I wonder if the bigger concern here is fresh water flash flooding. That part of the Mexican coastline, I believe, sees the mountains come nearly down to the coastline.

  22. Awesome satellite loop of Patricia

    https://youtu.be/ZcxBOQTOb2Q

    Nasa image of Patricia

    http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/thumbnails/image/patricia-suominpp-102315a.jpg?itok=_dg8hvSu

    Another Nasa image

    http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/thumbnails/image/patricia.a2015296.1730.1km.jpg?itok=uPr2_aMr

    And finally for your viewing pleasure, a Space Station video of Patricia

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gnc89GFg61k&feature=youtu.be

  23. Some recent photos

    The airport at Puerto Vallarta

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/151023113829-01-patricia-1023-exlarge-169.jpg

    residents preparing sand bags

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/151023123400-10-patricia-1023-exlarge-169.jpg

    Getting food and supplies

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/151023123530-11-patricia-1023-exlarge-169.jpg

    Surf beginning to pick up earlier today

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/151023114614-07-patricia-1023-exlarge-169.jpg

  26. WELCOME BACK VICKI!!!! 😀

    Unless for personal health or family reasons, don’t stop posting. If there is an offensive poster, TK will take care of it. He has proven since he started this blog that there is no tolerance for inappropriate comments. My concern was that those WBZ trolls were going to follow us over here, but TK and his geeks have kept them at bay. I can’t recall any of them…maybe one or two at most sneaked in VERY briefly. 🙂

    I am looking forward to you recording our snowfall amount(s). If other SNE locations
    are required, then I am going to have to do some research as to what their “average” snowfall is. I only know for Logan (43.8″). Personally though, I only care what happens in Boston since I was born here.

    CF…Good luck to your family! As long as they found sturdy shelter, they should be OK. 🙂

  27. Hoping for the best for the people in Mexico that will be affected by Patricia.
    Philip for Hartford the average snowfall is 40.5 inches. The official weather records for inland CT are not kept at Hartford. They are kept at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks which is north of Hartford. Biggest snowfall on record January 11th, 12th with 24.0 inches of snow second blizzard 2013 with 22.3 inches.

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