Tuesday Forecast

57 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)…
The final 5 days of October. We start with a dry and cool one today and follow that with a cloudy and eventually wet and breezy Wednesday (most rain at night) as a broad low pressure area tracks west of the region but drags some of the moisture that was associated with Pacific Hurricane Patricia last week up with it. This will produce some beneficial, but not drought-breaking, rainfall. A cold front sweeps it all offshore by early Thursday but the day itself will be quite mild as we’ll have to wait for a secondary front to bring the chilly air back in for Friday, which will be a dry and breezy day. Things progress quickly enough so that Halloween on Saturday as a milder day but it looks like a dry one too.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind light variable becoming E to SE.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 40s. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain develop west to east in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain and rain showers, heavy at times. Chance of thunder. Temperatures steady in the 50s may rise to the 60s overnight. Wind SE to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, potentially to 40 MPH or greater.
THURSDAY: Any showers end early otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs around 70. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)…
Rain showers possible late November 1 into November 2. Fair November 3. Rain showers possible early November 4. Fair November 5. Temperatures variable, averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)…
Overall mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal during the period.

57 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Dr. Cohen’s Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts blog is out already.
    They intend to release it every Monday during the Winter season, starting
    yesterday.

    For anyone interested here is a link:

    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Please note that anyone who wants to sign up to receive a link in an email each
    time it is updated, your may do so when you click on the link.

    My takeaways from it:

    Longer term we continue to favor a negative bias to the AO. Though not as rapid as the past two Octobers, Siberian snow cover has advanced this month at an above normal rate.

    Above normal Eurasian snow cover extent for the month of October favors a negative winter AO. Also above normal snow cover favors more active energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere in the six weeks from mid-November until the end of December, which often results in a weakening of the polar vortex in January.

    In addition, we also have one of the strongest observed El Niños ongoing that is predicted to last through the winter, though recent model forecasts show a dramatic decline in strength through the winter months. El Niño is thought to force milder winters across the extratopical Northern Hemisphere. It is challenging to anticipate how the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather.

    Please note the bold type. This appears to be a significant change for the Winter
    Outlook.

    I am really wondering if the predominant Outlook for a milder Winter with below
    average snowfall is a bit premature. We shall see.

    It looks to me that we have a reasonable shot at another Back loaded snowy Late
    Winter. 😀

    1. Im with you as all the talk is on a milder winter and not as snowy more like below to barely normal right. All this talk regarding a strongest ever El Niño . Wouldn’t that be something if it gets closer to a weak El Niño giving us a lot of snow. Dramatic decline in strength is pretty strong words regarding the strong El Niño . Time will tell.

      1. Those words are from Dr. Cohen.

        Whether one agrees or not, the words are coming from a man who is very knowledgeable on the subject. It’s not the Farmer’s Almanac saying this.

        Of course, what he says may not pan out, but I take notice
        none-the-less.

        It’s going to be an interesting Winter season.

        1. Yes JP I knew it was from him. And I agree it’s words coming from an experienced highly respected individual in the field. Will be interesting to hear his segment with Harvey next month . Thanks for posting JP.

          1. John,

            Please enlighten me on that “Segment” with Harvey????? What’s that all about and when/where will it be? On Channel 5 as
            part of the news broadcast or a channel 5
            Winter Outlook special?

            Very interested. Thank you.

            1. Harvey has Judah on I believe sometime in November to present how he thinks the winter outlook will unfold. Harvey has had him on for a few yrs I believe and this is how I got turned on to him. Like I said I have emailed him on his opinion many of times and he has always responded back with a good explanation. I’ll keep an ear out for it and let you know. I believe Harvey also has him on for summer as well.

    3. Great info. Thanks JPD. I’ve been looking for Cliff Mass’s winter comments but have yet to find them. He was accurate last year for our area so I figured his input would be interesting for the upcoming season.

      1. Vicki,

        I checked out some of his stuff. Very very interesting.
        He does not have a late update, but from what I see of his
        stuff, he thinks cold and snowy for the Northeast. Hmmm

        1. I didn’t find that. Thanks, JPD.

          Last year, Mac’s cousin who lives in Seattle and is very interested in weather, said she understood from Cliff Mass that we would have a lot of snow in winter. I said that isn’t what I was hearing for Northeast. She keeps reminding me of that…nicely, of course, as she is an incredibly nice person.

  4. A whole lot of speculation there. Given the trend in recent years of ENSO to lag what forecast models predict, I would not be too quick to jump on that rapid El Niño decline during Winter.

    The competing forces will be there but I think the El Niño is wearing a Gronk jersey. 😉

      1. Actually we were in decent agreement last year and neither of us foresaw the magnitude of the cold in February.

        He doesn’t forecast snow amounts so there is nothing to compare with regard to that.

    2. All I can say is that we will find out for certain this Winter.

      I think there will be some surprises this Winter, but what do I know?
      😀

  6. Regarding El Nino and winter: Less about strength, more about placement. This was a big takeaway from the conference the other day and some other stuff I’ve read lately. Watch the Nino 1+2 vs. Nino 3.4; a more central based Nino (warmer in 3.4) would be a better shot at colder/snowier in the East. Lately the trend has been for the warmest water to shift west towards the central Pacific. Nino 1+2 has cooled some. The classic super El Ninos that torched the Northeast in winter had warmer water just off the coast of South America than what we have now. I’m still thinking near to above normal temps and below normal snow, but not as convinced we’ll see a total blowtorch. Haven’t picked numbers yet though 🙂

    You can get good graphs of daily changes in the Nino regions here-

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

    1. It will not be a blow torch. We’re going to be cold for parts of it. Watch the QBO. BIG key.

  7. Thanks tk 🙂

    I’m sorta surprised how mild the start of Nov looks to be, I’m seeing lots of 60’s for highs, and maybe even a 70. 🙂

    1. I think we may look at a day or 2 of near +20 departure for highs. May end up way into the 70s one of the days if things pan out just so.

  8. I think sometimes people forget 2 main things that are very important to remember:

    1) Dr. Cohen does not forecast snow for the US. He forecasts temperature only.

    2) A forecast of cold does not automatically mean the forecaster is also predicting above normal snow.

    3) Dr. Cohen thus far has expressed a fair amount of uncertainty with his outlook, which makes sense because of the factors he mentioned and the unknowns associated with them.

    1. Yes, agreed.

      Not forgetting. Taking it all in.

      I still think this Winter will be interesting. 😀

      1. I think it will too and one of the interesting things may be the amount of frontal passages we have.

          1. I think more northern stream lows coming east across southern Canada. Subtropical jet stream lows will pass far south with no phasing and near or west with phasing with 1 or 2 in a good spot if you like snow.

  9. Regarding this winter’s forecast, I think I’ll quote from one of my least favorite people: Donald Rumsfeld

    “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know. “

    1. ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!! 😆 😆 😆

      That about sizes it up, doesn’t it.

      Well done Joshua!!

  11. Moderate drought area has expanded, as we expected, during the last week.

    Boston is currently running a deficit of 8.01 inches for 2015.

    Upcoming rain helps a little but is a feeble attempt to reduce drought, especially since the long term pattern remains very dry.

    1. Not to worry TK. That Logan deficit will “magically” disappear from daily climo records on Jan. 1, 2016 whether it rains on 12/31/2015 or not. 😉

      1. That sure is true. And then we can start adding to 2015’s when 2016 continues the trend of below normal precipitation in the long term.

    2. The areas I watch are now below where they were before the several inches of rain we had several weeks ago.

  12. Seasonal Snowfall Averages:

    Boston/Logan = 43.8″
    Worcester = 64.1″
    Providence = 33.8″

    I will post these numbers periodically as a courtesy as a guideline for the snowfall contest until the deadline. I need it if nothing else. 🙂

    1. It’s amazing the difference of 30 miles from Providence to Worcester that the average difference is nearly 3ft!!! Hoping for a below average winter, but we will see. 🙂

      1. Providence is located right near the South Coast, so it makes perfect sense not as much snow as Boston for that matter. 🙂

  13. The almighty AccuWeather 45-day forecast for the Boston area has ZERO mention of snow through December 10. 😉

    Oh and Elliot Abrahms the other day at the SNE Weather Conference declared that beyond day 7, that forecast is “for your entertainment”.

    2. I can understand why there is no mention of snow TK. As you know, while it is normal to have some snow in November (1.3″ on average), it is in no way unusual not to have any snow until sometime in December.

      TK – Do I get the feeling that you believe that there will be snow for us in November? 😉

      1. Well that forecast is generally model-generated, so if there is no snow on the model forecast….

        However, the 18z GFS does have snow for eastern MA on November 11. Its practical meaning is about zero right now since the model generates a different forecast for that date on each run that far in advance.

    1. That would depend on your location in southern New England. Much more rare in your region, not so rare in the Worcester Hills or southern NH.

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