Sunday Forecast

26 Comments

9:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)…
October is gone. November is here. The days of bluster and chill, right? Not always. We’ll have our share of that as the month goes on, but the month is going to start out with a stretch of dry and mild weather after a disturbance passes and brings a few rain showers today. The mild and dry weather that follows it will last a good deal of the coming week.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers through early afternoon, then breaking clouds later. Highs around 60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows around 50. Highs in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows around 50. Highs around 70.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)…
Low pressure passing to the north late Friday or early Saturday will drag a cold front through, likely with nothing but some cloudiness, and after an unseasonably warm Friday it may cool somewhat Saturday. High pressure dominates with fair weather and above normal temperatures November 8-10.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)…
Watch for some cloudiness and perhaps a little wet weather early to mid period with timing uncertain. Return to dry weather late in the period when it may turn somewhat cooler.

26 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. November 1 means I’m back checking this blog regularly–though I guess it’s another couple weeks before it feels like November.

  2. November 1st. Early sunsets 🙁 , earlier model runs 🙂 🙂

    Thanks TK. Good Sunday night game tonight. Broncos/Packers. One less undefeated team after this game (unless there is a tie)!

    1. Arod,

      Interesting that you came in fairly high, especially compared to average.

      Would you care to share your reasoning. I for one would love to hear it.

      Many thanks

      PS did you also post on the contest page so it can be tabulated?

      1. Also you have providence higher than Boston. That would be
        a rather rare event. Curious as to why?

        Not a put down in any way at all, I am seriously curious.

        I’ll have my prediction next week.

        1. Hi JP Dave,

          With El Nino forecasted to be one of the strongest seen to date, I expect a milder winter than last season. Yet, I also prognosticate a wetter winter. What does this mean in term of snow for us?

          The first couple winter months is likely to present with above normal temps with below normal precipitation. The two jets are likely to remain in two separate teams allowing for weaker disturbances to impact new England.

          However, as the season evolves the grips of El Nino is likely to loosen. The southern jet becomes more active as storms in the plains states take shape. I predict that a few of these link up with the northern jet resulting in more a classic set up conducive for significant snowfall in New England.

          While the first half of winter is likely to be uneventful, things change later January, February and March as we transition away from the strong El Nino pattern. It is then when NE plays “catch up” and experiences the majority of its snowfall. The major cities are likely to be on the fence in terms of frozen vs. liquid precip as ocean temp profiles are likely to run a few degrees above normal. However, evaporative cooling is likely to prevail as these storms become powerful enough to generate their own cold air.

          Hence, I am predicting above normal snowfall amounts once again. PVD gets an edge over Boston as it is sometimes less influenced by the marine layer than Boston which becomes critical in terms of what falls from the sky.

          Snow lovers will need to be patient early on. But, as the season evolves El Nino will transition into more of a classic winter set up for new England. Eventually it becomes our turn as we get struck with significant snowfall in the latter months.

          1. Arod, Thank you. I really appreciate you taking
            the time. Excellent presentation.

            That was part of my reasoning as well, with
            some slight variation.

            I will put mine together next week. But working on it and going over things in my mind.

            I have a figure in mind that is higher than yours, but basically for similar reasons.

            next week.

    2. Tx arod. Would you mind moving them to the contest page. That way when I get to my computer they are all in one place to record

      1. Oops Arod. I just noticed you put concord. Did you mean Hartford. TK listed the four cities on the earlier blog today

          1. If that 83.5 happens in Hartford that you are predicting it would be a top 5 snowiest winter for inland CT.
            I am curious why you are going with the high numbers

  7. LOL!!!
    Thanks for the post Jp Dave.
    Hopefully we could end our 4 game losing streak against Seattle at home today.

  9. 61 degrees here in Taunton at 2 pm EST. Sun was trying to come out 30 minutes ago. Dewpoint is a bit stuffy at 57 degrees.

    Great for November 1! My heating system is grateful, too!

    Was snowing this time a year ago, today.

  10. Not weather related but NFL teams eliminated IMO
    Lions
    Titans
    Cowboys
    49ers
    Bucs
    Bears
    Chargers
    Jags
    Ravens
    Browns

  11. CFS 2 meter temperature anomaly (January)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015110106&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=186

    cfc precipitation
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2015110106&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=497

    compared to the Cansips
    2 meter temperature anomaly

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015110100&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=673

    precip anomaly
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015110100&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=673
    there is a difference but many of the other months are agreeing

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