Monday Forecast

49 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)…
High pressure dominates with mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures which will vary a little with wind direction based on positioning of high pressure throughout the period. The only interruption may be from a small and weak disturbance that drifts through from the southwest late Thursday to early Friday with cloudiness and a risk of rain showers, and more cloudiness later Friday from an approaching cold front.
TODAY: High cloudiness across the southern sky at times otherwise sunshine. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from the middle 30s interior valleys to middle 40s urban areas. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 50s coast, 60-65 interior.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs around 70.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs around 70.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)…
Dry with a cooling trend November 7-8. Continued mainly dry with a warming trend November 9-11.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)…
Some unsettled weather early in the period followed by a return to mostly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

49 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Very nice, but I’m afraid to say, BORING weather.

    Let’s rustle up some action. Yawn……………………..

    On another subject, I was surprised at the Broncos and specifically Manning’s performance last night. Not to mention the Denver defense. Only 10 points allowed
    to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Hmmm That New England-Denver games
    is going to be something special to watch. I’m banking on Brady pushing across
    more points than Rodgers did and I am also expecting some sort of implosion
    by Manning. Pats 27 Broncos 17

    Just a wild first impression at this point.

  5. We’re going to enter 2016 with a 6 to 12 inch precipitation deficit coming out of this year. Even a “wetter than average” Winter may only dent the long term drought…IF it’s even that wet.

    1. Tk, I know you have back ground in this subject.

      To me and just looking at my area, the deficit seems to have been well
      distributed in such a way, all plant life seems to be thriving quite well.
      As mentioned before, by lawn didn’t even turn brown this Summer where I have seen it almost dust in some Summers.

      I understand that if this deficit continues and grows larger, it could become
      a very serious issue.

      I’m just curious as to how serious it is already. I suppose it varies from
      location to location.

      1. I was at my local conservation Comission meeting the other night, and it was discussed how the water table was much higher this year than last. Many wetland areas that usually dry out, did not. I find this very interesting given the rainfall deficit we are running. I’m sure there are some very interesting explanations for this.

      2. Late snow cover in Spring + even distribution of “just enough” rain for topsoil + no sustained Summer heat.

        1. Makes perfect sense. So, when the deficit it is like
          this, we can get away with it for one year. Start adding
          years to it, and we’re in trouble, correct? thanks

  9. Good to see some snow in the Sierra’s. Thanks for sending, OS. Speaking of deficits, the rain/snow deficit in parts of California is staggering.

    As TK has said, our situation is not good, either.

    My snow predictions:

    1. Boston – 31.7 inches
    2. Providence – 28.1 inches
    3. Hartford – 44.2 inches

    Did I forget a city? I probably did.

    Coming winter will not be memorable. But, I think Boston in particular will have more sleet than normal, and several snow-to-sleet-to-rain southeasters as well. The outbreaks of cold will be brief, and come sooner than many are predicting. I think December through February will be slightly above average temperature-wise, with wild oscillations at times. This may actually give us a wintry feeling at times by mid December. More of a wintry feeling than we had last year in December. None of the cold outbreaks will be sustained. In fact, because of this the Charles will not freeze over at any point during the winter.

      1. Thanks for the reminder. Memory isn’t quite the same once we hit the half-century mark.

        Worcester: 50.6 inches

  10. While watching the WS, I periodically checked in with the Broncos-Packers game. Rodgers is no Tom Brady. Better arm than Brady, but it’s the decision-making and accuracy that’s sometimes missing with Rodgers. While we can’t know for sure whether the Patriots will beat the Broncos in Denver, we can almost guarantee Brady will do a better job than Rodgers did. My concern is that the AFC may be harder to win than in previous years. The Bengals look very good. While I think Marvin Lewis is probably the worst post-season coach since Nat Turner, I wouldn’t rule out a Bengal surprise against the Pats. Nor would I rule out a Bronco defeat of the Patriots, whether during the regular season and/or post-season.

    1. I hear your concern And I agree re: Bardy vs Rodgers.

      I do believe the Pats beat both Denver and Cinci if need be. 😀

    2. Bengals have 2 huge tests left on their schedule …. @ Arizona Cardinals and @ Broncos.

      I believe its going to take 15-1 by either the Pats, Broncos or Bengals to secure the 1 seed and 14-2 to secure the 2 seed. One of these teams probably will be playing on wild card weekend as the 3rd seed after going 13-3.

      Whereas last season, I think the Pats secured the 1 seed with 12-4.

      1. Denver’s tough games are @Colts, @Steelers, Pats and Bengals.

        I think Pats tough games are …. @NY Giants, Eagles, @Jets, @Dolphins. At Miami is always tough. I think in 2004, the Pats went 14-2 and lost in Miami to a very bad Miami team.

        2. Pats tough games left in this order:

          Broncos
          Jets at Jets
          Giants

          The rest are tomato cans and no need to worry.

          Worst case, Pats finish 13-3
          Best case 16-0
          Most Likely 15-1

          Just my humble opinion and I do believe that
          the 16-0 is achievable. We’ll know on the 29th.

      2. Bengals are ZERO threat to the Pats.
        If the Pats meet them in the play offs, it’s the Pat’s
        as Dalton Implodes.

  12. Dr. Cohen’s blog should be out this evening. I would be most interested to see
    if there are any changes.

  14. The World is Ending@@(@&*#!@&*#&!*(&@#&*!@

    OMG, it’s getting DARK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  15. Seasonal Snowfall Averages:

    Boston = 43.8″
    Worcester = 61.4″
    Providence = 33.8″
    Hartford = 40.5″

  16. Dr cohen’s blog is out. Interesting.
    Certainly going to be mild this month.
    Then…
    Well for the winter he indicates
    Rapid weakening of El Nino
    And cold with ridgin in eastern usa.

    Hmm

    I’m mobile.
    Will look at it more tomorrow
    In case I made a mistake.

  18. tk or anyone else can you show me some light into this question that my professor has given me. Hint. it is not due to the ocean

    Why is it near impossible for us here in new england to have a drought.

    1. I’ve heard of the same question, it’s because we are not a agriculture area, and we don’t have long summers 🙂

    2. Sorry, but the ocean certainly plays into it.

      We are in the active mid-latitudes. Therefore we are always near boundaries
      and warm and moist air and cool and dry air. Winter season low pressure areas and summer season convection. It is tough to keep us too dry. It happens, but
      very rarely. Rather than a true drought we have dier periods.

      1. i know that dave, but need to make the professor happy even if I disagree with her so i get the grade I want. I am going to give her two responses, and tell her pick the one that will give me the best grade 😉 thanks guys.

  19. Just a reminder, please make sure to put predictions on contest page. I can guarantee I won’t see them if they are on regular blog. Thank you 🙂

  20. The cyclone going into Yeman can give them 3-4 times their annual rainfall in just a day. Not a good situation for a desert climate and an area that has been quite unsettled with all the unrest this year.

  21. I looked over Dr. Cohen’s blog update. Excellent summary. Not a whole lot of change from the last update other than solid knowledge of a POSITIVE AO for a while. The expectation of the AO going more persistently negative is largely based on a forecast of a rapidly weakening El Nino made by computer models that had performed so-so, at best, when trying to peg the onset of El Nino during the last couple years. Very high risk forecast.

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