Wednesday Forecast

46 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)…
A high pressure ridge will remain the dominant feature in the Northeast. Our only risk of brief rain showers will come from a passing disturbance Thursday night and cold front Friday night, otherwise the dry pattern continues.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind light N shifting to E.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of a rain shower late. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW to variable around 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun and clouds day, more clouds and a passing rain shower night. Highs 68-75.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows around 50. Highs around 60.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 50.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)…
Dry and cool November 9, milder November 10-11. Clouds and possible wet weather by November 12-13.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)…
Mostly dry weather returns early in the period. Watch for a short-lived but vigorous system between November 16-18 that may bring brief rain and/or snow and a shot of colder air.

46 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks tk 🙂

    PLEASE ALL PREDICTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE CONTEST PAGE. AT THE TOP YOU WILL SEE “CONTEST” COPY AND PASTE THEM THERE. THANK YOU IN ADVANCE. 🙂

  4. I went to see Howard Jones at Johnny D’s in Somerville last evening. Just Howard and his piano, songs, and stories. Great show. At 60 Howard’s voice is as strong as it was early in his career.

    1. You’re getting around for your advanced age. 😆

      Never been to Johnny D’s. I have certainly heard of the place.

      Sounds like fun.

      Now enough with the Music and see what you can do about some
      snow for this Winter season. 😀

  5. Thanks TK !

    Is anyone else having the following issue ….

    I went to copy an October 31st post of mine that contained my snowfall predictions, but I had no way to post …….

    I will keep trying 🙂

        1. Not a problem for me.

          In fact, go there and you can see that I copied and
          pasted your post in there.

          I think you should grab another cup of coffee. Not make that a mug. Then review your procedure. 😀

            1. Now that’s interesting because I can’t see what JP Dave copied either. Oh well 🙂 🙂

              I still could go for the extra coffee

            1. What is going on????

              Do you have gremlins running around?
              A hacker? The same one that hacked
              Rockland Trust down there?????

  6. WBZ | CBS Boston
    15 mins ·
    Eric Fisher says we’ve NEVER had a big snow year after a very warm November. Does that sound good to you?

  7. WBZ | CBS Boston
    15 mins ·
    Eric Fisher says we’ve NEVER had a big snow year after a very warm November. Does that sound good to you?

  8. WBZ | CBS Boston
    15 mins ·
    Eric Fisher says we’ve NEVER had a big snow year after a very warm November. Does that sound good to you?

  9. WBZ | CBS Boston
    15 mins ·
    Eric Fisher says we’ve NEVER had a big snow year after a very warm November. Does that sound good to you?

  12. Correlation, not causation. It may be factually accurate that warm Novembers and “Big Snow” winters (I assume EF defines this as above average snowfall?) do not correlate. However, this raises the question why. If we don’t have an answer to that question – granted, it’s a $64 million question – then it’s a correlation without causal linkage. Therefore, I jettison it, just as I would discount a correlation (if there is one, and I highly doubt it) between warm Decembers and “Big Snow” winters. Happened last year, but not because of a warm December. In fact, the snow onslaught between Jan. 24 and Feb. 16 was in no way related to December’s weather.

    1. Well stated Joshua and I agree 100%.

      Let’s see how it shakes out this year.

      If I were a betting person, I’d bet on MORE snow than most are predicting.

      All the more reason this Winter will be interesting.

      IF it turns out to be virtually snowless, so be it.

  13. Seasonal Snowfall Averages:

    Boston/Logan = 43.8″
    Worcester = 61.4″
    Providence = 33.8″
    Hartford = 40.5″

    I hope this info has been helpful! I will post one more time next week. 🙂

    1. It helps me. Please keep it coming.

      When I post my numbers for Logan, I will basically just adjust the
      other cities proportionately, Unless for some reason I feel otherwise.

  14. I do not see neither Tom’s or JPD’s predictions in the contest page.

    So far, I only see posts from Weatherman, a-rod and me.

    1. I have not entered my as of yet.
      I only copied and pasted a post of Tom’s, not even Tom’s predictions.

  15. Ok, I can post to the contests page that TJ Hammer posted to. It’s from 2014, but that ones work for me.

    Does this mean I can predict for 14-15 winter ?

    Hmmmmm, I’m feeling a record breaking season of nearly 115 inches at Logan ….. for most of it to fall in a 4 to 5 week period centered in February …….. with brutal cold in February, more than 10F below average. Confidence : above average !!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  16. It’s almost a lock for a warm November but the cold interludes will take place, just short-lived. One of these may have measurable snow with it.

    1. Indeed, I think the latter half of this month will give us a better indication of the kind of winter that lies ahead than this first week of Indian Summer in November. My hunch is that we’ll have a bumpy ride this winter, with ups and downs. Nothing out of the ordinary like 2011-2012 warmth, or 2014-2015 snow/cold. But, there will be plenty to talk about, including really tricky forecasts for SNE: e.g., rain/sleet/snow lines.

    2. Measurable? What is the smallest depth of snow that is measurable?
      1/10 inch, 1/8 inch, 1/4 inch? he he he

      To me measurable snow, is measurable snow like a few inches at least.
      Any chance of that?

      Probably not a snowballs chance in hell. 😆

      1. I think we’ll have a snow squall or two before the month’s out, followed by rapid warm-ups. This winter’s seesaw ride may begin sooner than you think.

          1. The pattern is ridge-dominated, but if you notice, these fairly fast-moving but potent shortwave troughs come along. At this time of year if one digs just right (timing and orientation) it snows. It’s often how we get our November snow events. And it can happen in the midst of a warm pattern. I’ve been seeing signs of such a trough potentially impacting the region around November 13/14 off and on reflected in some of the medium range guidance, enough that I won’t dismiss it.

  17. Measurable snow is defined as 0.1 inch or greater. That’s the standard used by the NWS and all climatologists. And it is a very good standard to go by.

    People scoff at it, but it actually makes perfect sense since snowfall is officially measured to the nearest tenth of an inch. And there’s a good reason for that too. It is based on the variability of snowfall over a relatively short distance and the change in snow depth over a short amount of time.

    1. I figured 1/10 would be it. 😀 Thank you.

      Btw, Snowing pretty good just North of Flagstaff Arizona.
      Mt. Humphreys has been snow covered for a full 2 weeks now. 😀

  18. Bearing in mind that I think I’ve been off by an average of 50 inches in the snowfall contest the last few years, I’ll go with …..

    Logan : 30 inches
    Providence : 35 inches
    Hartford : 32 inches
    Worcester : 37.5 inches

      1. Yup, which probably guarantees at least 70 or 80 inches.

        For the contest itself, I’m playing more of a strategic guess of being near the averages. Then, because of El Nino, I decided to go a bit below the averages.

        Seeing the precip and cool western US already this autumn, the much documented El Nino, the west Pacific Hurricane Season, my instinct says lower totals then what I put above.

        I could see storms from an active southern jet turn the corner and occasionally hit southeastern New England. But, with generally milder airmasses than normal, if say 4 storms were to turn the corner and hit Boston south, my guess is at least 2 of them will be rain.

        I can see some arctic cold blasts, but I think they wont be in synch with the bigger precip events and usually be in retreat for snow changing to ice/rain.

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