Saturday Forecast

55 Comments

8:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)…
Chilly weekend, though it will feel decidedly colder today than it will on Sunday, as today will be the one with some passing clouds, a gusty wind, and a high temp only in the 40s. Sunday’s start will be a cold one but it will recover to 50 or better for most areas in the afternoon and this will feel even milder with less wind and plenty of sun, though filtered at times by some high cloudiness. More cloudiness Sunday night will mark a further warm up for the first half of next week as high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft. It doesn’t look like we’ll get into a strong southwest flow though due to the orientation of the surface high pressure area, so don’t look for any record warmth during this period.
TODAY: Passing sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow eastern MA 8AM hour otherwise sun and passing clouds. Temperatures holding in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH. Wind chill in the 30s.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH. Wind chill nearing 20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-35, coldest interior valleys. Highs in the 50s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-45. Highs 55-65.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)…
Above normal temperatures but with a risk of some wet weather at times November 19-21. Fair and cooler November 22-23 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)…
Risk of wet weather at the beginning of the period then a turn to colder weather may follow around Thanksgiving. Cannot rule out a minor snow event before the end of the period with a disturbance possibly coinciding with cold enough air.

55 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I can’t believe the horror in Paris.

    It’s 2016 and the human race hasn’t got “it” yet. Will it ever?????

    1. Terrible situation.
      Most of us get it, as you know. It’s those relative few that don’t get it and unfortunately possess the means to afflict harm on so many, that are the problem. Hoping somehow that can be changed.

  3. Some signs today that the colder interlude may be pretty sharp late this month. HOWEVER, don’t look for a pattern change to persistent cold. The overall pattern remains a mild one. As we have discussed, when the configuration is right, we’ll be able to grab cold air from Canada (when it’s there) and pull it southward. This will usually happen in quick bursts, but if you happen to get 2 in short succession it will give the “illusion” that your pattern is completely switched. Think of it more as regular breathing (long term mild pattern) with occasional hiccups (cold shots) and even once in a while one of those double hiccups. 😉

    1. Tk,

      You have a wonderful ability to explain the weather. You make fantastic
      analogies. You make it understandable for all.

      Did you ever think about teaching? You would make a top-notch teacher!

  4. Been crazy in the office lately. Haven’t had a chance to read. I just learned of Vicki’s loss. My sincerest empathy and condolences go out to you and your family Vicki!

  7. I have about 36 hours to get my Winter forecast written and posted, along with the snow #’s. Before that, it’s 2 days of yard work and preliminary laying out of cords for Christmas lights.

    Yes, the Winter forecast and snow #’s will get done. My outlook is done in my mind, and it’s short.

    1. Your number is somewhere between 20 and 30, correct?

      I am so torn about this Winter, I can’t even work on the numbers.

      I think I will place a set of numbers on my wall and throw a dart.
      Whatever number I hit, that’s the snow number.

      Seriously, since all are coming in low, I’ll have to go the other way.

      Just have to settle on a number.

      😀

  8. Thank you, TK.

    It’s hard to concentrate on weather after a very rough week for the WHW family. And then the events in Paris last night. Cowardly dead-enders who joined a homicidal cause steeped in dark age ideology. ISIS offers people nothing but a radical interpretation of Islam in which there is no room for tolerance. The world is bifurcated in a primitive way into believers in and infidels. There is no freedom in a now God-forsaken city like Raqqa. No prosperity. No hope. Just torture and death for infidels and those who dare lead a different lifestyle from the one espoused by ignorant leaders cloaked in 8th century garb. Because ISIS offers nothing, I do think its days are numbered. History tells us that fanatics tend not to last long. But before it withers away, there will be more carnage perpetrated by hateful followers of ISIS. They’ll take the easy path in life – the nihilistic one that seeks `vengeance’ by murdering the unarmed innocent. These are not strong men. No, they are weak and pathetic.

    The Smiths put it well when they said “it’s so easy to hate, it takes strength to be gentle and kind.” They’re right. Strong people are those who seek peace, have learned to accept each other, and move forward without bluster or violence.

    2. Well said Joshua.

      Here is a link to Maajid Nawaz’s website. He’s been on NPR (Juliette Kayem’s Podcast) and is a frequent guest on CNN (he was on last night). He was someone who at one time was seduced by the dark side. His thoughts and comments are a very good read.

      http://maajidnawaz.com

  11. Alaska has turned quite cold. Most every interior location is below zero, with 15F to 20F below in east central areas and also in northwest Alaska.

  12. Vicki, I am so sad to have just read about Mac’s passing. My heart goes out to you and your loved ones during this difficult time. I want you to know that you have my sincere condolences and that you will always be in my thoughts and prayers!

    1. Thank you shotime. I hope you are feeling better and your sugery was successful. I am sending prayers and positive thoughts right back to you

  13. JimmyJames, I am sorry to hear of your loss. May the love of family and friends help you through the days ahead. You are in my thoughts!

  14. Thank you shotime.
    I am sure my Uncle was smiling down from heaven yesterday with the beautiful mass that took place and will always be in my heart.

      1. I think my Uncle was Vicki. A lot of people came up to me afterwards saying what a nice eulogy it was.

  15. JJ – I don’t know whether you saw my post the other day – but just in case you didn’t see it – I am so sorry for your loss. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

  17. I apologize for missing some important posts this past week. I had surgery at the beginning of the week and was pretty much out of it due to pain meds! Feeling better today 🙂

    1. shotime, glad you are feeling better. Take it easy – I haven’t been out but the wind looks nasty out there and after opening the window you can feel how cold it is.

      1. Thank you, rainshine!
        It was definitely chilly when getting the paper from porch this morning. A slight taste of what’s around the corner 🙂

  19. I don’t what this means but saw this tweet NE Weather Authority
    Uh-oh it appears El Nino region 4 is becoming very Very dominant. Those forecasting a bust is in HUGE trouble

      1. He’s referring to the region in which it is “stronger”, as in where the temperature departures are greatest. During the last week there’s been a jump in temps in Nino 4 which is further west away from the South American Coast. There are some theories and evidence that an El Nino centered out here does not have the same impact as one centered further east in Nino 1 & 2 areas (closer to the coast). However, this is just one piece of the puzzle, and there are some out there making predictions who are looking for any reason to forecast a big Winter on the East Coast will jump on one piece of evidence instead of taking everything else into account. This is especially common on weather sites run by non mets who word their qualifications just trickily enough to fool the average reader. I wouldn’t say it if I wasn’t viewing this kind of thing for several years now. They easily give themselves away when they claim themselves as non hype yet regularly tweet or post things that are hype-fueled. It gives a rush when you can “break the big news” even if there is a whole lot of doubt regarding its validity.

          1. No problem. I’m not trying to discredit that particular tweet, but it brings up a good example of what I mean. Even on the eve of my own Winter forecast there is still quite a bit I’m unsure of along with some aspects I’m quite confident of.

  20. Was in Mendon today and saw some flakes. The sky was absolutely awesome all day and the wind….well, I love wind 🙂

    1. I was yard-working from 10AM to 3PM today in lots of wind. I didn’t put myself in a position to get frustrated by wind blowing leaves around as I did things that didn’t matter what the wind was. Got a lot done. Beautiful day despite the chill, the wind, and at times the lack of sun.

  21. that system that you are talking about only works if the southern stream and northern streams meet up. Looks like most at the moment are keeping them separated, we shall see long ways out. each run of the gfs is getting warmer.

          1. Yes. The majority of GFS runs over the last several days have had a quick-digging trough in a northwest flow with brief cold air around. When you see that trend show up on a fairly consistent basis then you should never ignore it. That far in advance the depicted potential event will jump around within a few days, but it’s just the model going down generally the same road with each run.

      1. We have to watch for troughs. In this pattern you can have a very rapid and temporary amplification of the polar jet. You don’t need the subtropical jet to be involved. One quick cut off and cold air and you have your first measurable snow early. Several El Nino patterns have had early and/or late snow despite having a below normal snow total. As a meteorologist you do not ignore that history.

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