17 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

1. TK thank you!!

2. Good morning and thank you TK.

   Kind of a so-so day. Nothing earth shattering going on.

3. Thank you TK.

4. Thank you TK

   I am enjoying having windows open and the smell of November air while I drink my coffee. Weather is amazing….even, or perhaps mostly, because it changes up and is so unpredictable.

5. Far north is experiencing a very mild stretch. Lots of snow today, but forecast given by Environment Canada is for temperatures at or above (!) freezing by later this week. Normal high this time of year is around -10C (mid to upper teens F). High projected later this week is 2C or 36F. Records may be broken.

   http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446

6. Good afternoon.

   Dr. Cohen’s Blog has been issued.

   Here is a statement taken from it:

   Still given the polar vortex model forecast and strong projection of the current atmospheric pattern onto the tripole pattern, we are more confident in increased wave activity flux in December that will result in weakening of the polar vortex in December and likely continuing into January. Also because the current dominant high latitude circulation is a wave two pattern, this would favor a polar vortex split relative to a polar vortex displacement in the event of a significant weakening of the polar vortex. One inhibiting background factor is the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that favors a strong vortex over a weak vortex. But if our expectations of a weakened polar vortex verify, this will likely favor an increased likelihood of severe winter weather across the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Of course all of this is highly speculative but the purpose of this blog is to push the boundaries of what is possible in weather forecasting beyond the skillful range of the weather models.

   Here is a linK:

   http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

7. Some big albeit not unexpected news on the El Nino front today. NOAA’s weekly ENSO update listed the current temperature departure in the Nino 3.4 region, which is used for official records, as +3.0C, the highest value on record for a one week period. The traditional method of measuring ENSO event strengths is a 3 month average, and this event doesn’t have a record there yet (although it likely will in a couple months), but at least by the one-week method this is now the strongest El Nino on record.

8. Thank you Vicki for recording our snow totals on the Contest page especially since you are going through a difficult time. Again so sorry for your loss.

   1. You are welcome, Philip. Sue did the vast majority starting the spreadsheet and list.

9. Slow night in the weather office.

   1. Been sitting outside with grandsons looking at the stars and God’s fingernail. Nice for mid November.

10. A very unusual (unprecedented?) tornado outbreak is ongoing in the central US. Already a couple dozen tornado reports, with pictures indicating multiple EF-3+ candidates. Tornadoes in November aren’t too unusual, but large events in particular this time of year tend to be much more Southeast-based. None that I can find of this magnitude so far west so late. Looks like May out there.

    1. El Nino November event.

       1. Figured El Niño was a factor, thanks TK.

    2. Yikes. That is quite a line of storms out there.

11. There is a secondary severe weather peak in the late Autumn that can impact the South and Plains. During El Nino, we’ll often see a strong trough or cut-off coming out of the Southwest, and even though it is not exactly the same as Spring, it does mimic the set-up pretty well. This particular outbreak is a little bit further west than many at this time of year have been.

12. New post!

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