Monday Forecast

55 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)…
Thanksgiving Week is here! And it appears we are in for some great weather with one minor interruption. Here’s how it should pan out. We start with 3 chilly and dry days as high pressure dominates. A very weak disturbance running into the high pressure area and falling apart may produce some clouds for part of Tuesday and perhaps a sprinkle of rain or a few flakes of snow. To say the pre-Thanksgiving travel weather will be excellent is almost an understatement. It’s not often we get through 3 days without at least some type of weather issue to impact travel one way or another, but this will be the case this year. And it doesn’t stop there. The great weather will also continue through the Thanksgiving holiday itself as well as the loved-by-some, loathed-by-others “Black Friday” shopping day. During those days we will see a warm-up as high pressure slides off to the south of New England.
TODAY: Any early clouds depart Cape Cod otherwise sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-22 interior valleys, 23-30 elsewhere except lower 30s Cape Cod. Wind light NW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated very light rain or snow showers possible. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)…
Based on current timing, it looks like a cold front will slide from northwest to southeast through the region Saturday November 28 bringing clouds and a risk of rain showers followed by clearing as temperatures start out mild and end colder. Fair and chilly Sunday November 29. Rain threat Monday November 30 as low pressure approaches. Another disturbance may bring some light precipitation December 1 and/or 2.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)…
Fair weather early to mid period. A possible rain or snow threat later in the period. Temperatures averaging near to above normal for this period.

55 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Very happy with the projected Thanksgiving Day and Friday forecasts …..

    Both EURO and GFS showing storminess day 9.

  2. Thanks TK
    Tweet From Meteorologist Gil Simmons
    There will be lots of chatter today about the NE snowstorm projected by the European model for next week! Will be watching this!

    1. It is an interesting scenario. One of those, where the upward motion and precip intensity would be necessary to work in concert with very marginal 850 mb cold air, which looked to be 0 to -5C at best.

      That’s what keeps amazing me on the EURO, what the 850mb temps look like across North America.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yet, another beauty of a day in a very long string of them.

    I can’t believe how nice it is.

    Not even close to cold. 😀

  7. re: This chatter about a storm.

    I was looking at something yesterday that looked extremely interesting, although
    850MB temps were very marginal. I was busy with something else and didn’t
    get a chance to post what I wanted to, which was a map depicting DYNAMIC
    cooling very dramatically.

    Oh well, have not yet looked at the latest. later.

    1. Euro

      850mb temps

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015112300/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

      surface

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015112300/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

      For comparison:

      GFS

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112306/gfs_mslpa_us_36.png

      CMC

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112300/gem_mslpa_us_39.png

      The only thing I can say here is that ALL 3 of these models have a significant
      system, albeit with different placements and timing. The point is they
      ALL have it, which tells me that it is quite likely there WILL be a storm.

      The way things have been going, it will track just North or NorthWest of us.
      Probably won’t be a coastal, although cannot bet against the Euro at
      this point.

      Certainly a WATCHER! for sure.

      One more thing, EVEN if it pans out exactly as depicted by the Euro,
      that would NOT be snow at the coast for the whole event. That would be rain
      almost out to Worcester as winds would be ENE. Only snow at the coast
      as system begins to depart and winds turn more NorthEasterly then Northerly.

      Interesting non-the-less.

      1. In case anyone is interested, the water temperatures off the coast
        remain pretty toasty for this time of year:

        Boston Buoy: 50.9
        Stellwagen Buoy: 51.6

        Any hint of the wind from an Easterly direction will KILL
        any snow chances for a good deal inland even.

        Need that wind to back to NNE to N.

        1. Went back to last years blog entries on the same day to see if ocean temps are consistent with last year and they indeed are. That’s interesting to me since last year if u recall we had that unseasonably cool November (due to the super typhoon recurving into Alaska).

        2. And in my exploration into last year at this time I was surprised to see talk of a major snowstorm the day before thanksgiving. Then it all came back to me. Just days before, all models (except the GFS) was calling for a major storm with snow all the way down to the coast. The EURO was the biggest offender. GFS turned out to be correct all along and we got rain with just a few flakes at the end in Boston.

  9. The one issue with the ECMWF forecast: It’s mis-timing systems and not giving enough attention to something that will be ahead of it. Time will reveal.

  10. 12Z GFS still has the system we’ve been discussing.

    Initially, wants to pass through the lakes, but I see activity near the coast
    AND Dropping 850MB temperatures down to Central MA and even Boston.
    So, not sure what’s happening. A coastal?

  11. Next week, temps to our west and north will be marginally cold at best. Ocean water is mild. So, even if the possible storm is positioned well for a nor’easter, I think the coast will get mostly cold rain. When I say coast I mean from Logan to, say, Vicki’s house. Worcester and points west would get some snow, as would JJ. But of course this all depends on a storm that is only a possibility.

    1. I think only parts of NNE gets snow out of this system.

      We shall see. It would have to evolve differently than depicted on
      the GFS.

    2. I love that idea. I have always wanted to live on the coast and now I can say I do …..can you work on the view next please, Joshua???

  13. the gfs is showing the pattern that I think will be dominant first part of winter and the EURO is showing another scenario that I think will be dominant to start out the winter with 850 temps being marginal to cold enough but the lower levels do not support snow.
    Even if the euro scenario happened will mean that there will be little snow more of a rain scenario. Ski country on the other hand could benefit with this type of storm
    points
    GFS and CMC are similar rain scenerios but tail end snow sowers
    EURO good placement but marginal cold. to warm lower levels.
    good snow for ski areas???
    way to far out to really be thinking to much about but its fun to look at. Lets see the trends the next few days until we get to excited. 😀

  15. I’m predicting thanksgiving day will reach 60 degrees, and blackfriday will reach 65, wouldn’t surprise me if a locale or 2 come very close to 70 degrees. We shall see. 🙂

    1. “Rain to snow:” I think we will hear a lot of that this winter. Also, brief deep freezes followed by dramatic warm-ups. Not my kind of pattern. But, I can’t have my way every year.

    1. This may actually be a fairly correct solution but coming after a much faster wave delivers wet weather on November 30.

    2. Mr OS/Dave. Would you mind if TK shares your email with me. I wanted to send you a link. It is ok if you’d rather not. 🙂

  18. TK – In a previous blog you mentioned that El Nino can have a “cold” side as well. Does this mean that La Nina can also have a “mild” side depending on other factors?

    Also, which type of pattern specifically did we have last winter?

    My gut tells me we get at least a moderate snow event sometime in December.

    1. Yes it can.

      Last Winter was neutral to weak El Nino and (mostly) positive NAO. The reason we got so much cold and snow is that when that pattern locked in for the end of January through February it remained extremely stable. It just did not change.

  23. Good morning, everyone…19 degrees here in the west end of Taunton. Bill Belichick just called me. I have been added to the Patriots’ roster that will travel to Denver Sunday night. That’s how bad the injury situation is. If there is anyone, however, to figure this all out, it’s Belichick. In Bill We Trust!
    Happy Thanksgiving Eve, Eve.

    2. hehe –

      Was an interesting game. I hadn’t heard second string refs had been brought in last night.

      Happy Thanksgiving Eve, Eve to you also!

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