Wednesday Forecast

52 Comments

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)…
High pressure remains in control today providing dry and chilly weather, great for travel around the region, which many people will be doing today, be it heading into the area or out of it for Thanksgiving, or doing late minute food shopping, or just about anything else such as picking up the leaves you’ve been ignoring for weeks (my next door neighbors not included because they never pick them up). High pressure slips a little bit to the east and south by Thanksgiving Day and allows a southeasterly flow, which will bring in some Atlantic moisture and result in some cloudiness. As the wind switches more to the southwest by Friday, expect more sun again, but this time a much milder day, basically about as nice as it can be around here in late November, and on a day when many will be out shopping or putting up decorations (I’ll be doing the latter). This slice of mild air won’t last long as a cold front will drop through the region from northwest to southeast Friday night and early Saturday, possibly bringing brief rain showers but definitely bringing colder air for Saturday and Sunday.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)…
There is a little uncertainty on integrity and timing of disturbances that may impact the region during this period. There is a shot of one bringing rain at some point November 30, and another one or 2 systems around December 2 and maybe December 4. Any of these would likely be rain events due to dominant mild air.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)…
A more active southern jet stream may send another system or two in the direction of New England with a couple more chances of storminess. Temperatures, though variable, will average mostly above normal.

52 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. A little extra thought here as we head toward December: Basically no changes to previous thinking about how that month will unfold, but as it’s closer maybe a little more detail can be talked about.

    I think the first third of the month will be quite mild with a little more action coming out of the southern jet stream, however with the northern stream not delivering much in the way of any cold and often lifting to the north, if the subtropical jet does send a system far enough north to impact New England the odds would favor these being milder systems.

    When we get to the middle of the month, we’ll likely see a more diving of the polar jet and a couple decent shots of cold. Our early snow events would likely be light ones in this pattern, dependent on fast-moving disturbances in the polar jet. The subtropical jet would remain active but be further south taking systems from it OTS, with phasing of the 2 streams taking place well off the East Coast, if at all. That will depend on what’s going on downstream in the northeastern Atlantic and western Europe.

  2. Thanks, TK…

    19 degrees again in the west end of Taunton…
    Be safe on the roads today, everyone…

    Football rally this morning at MHS! Middleborough High vs. Carver tomorrow morning!
    Go Sachems! Thanksgiving morning high school football rivalries! What makes New England so special! Good luck to all of your teams tomorrow!

    Happy Thanksgiving Eve, y’all!

    1. I have so many wonderful memories of Belmont/Watertown games on thanksgiving morning…..before and after graduation. Thanks for reminding me 🙂

  3. Thanks tk 🙂

    It’s freezing out!!! Happy this is the last cold day, brrr!!! I would like to add I like tk’s outlook this winter, you made me smile after scurrying inside from the cold.. Other than some small rainy periods to begin Dec, it looks relatively uneventful. Enjoy the day everyone. 🙂

    1. Well this is certainly not the last cold day. Given Winter does actually begin for quite a while still, there will be many cold days to come – just not as many as last year. 🙂

      And the outlook is really only through mid December, which is still technically a late Autumn outlook. 😉

    2. Charlie….stand for a few minutes and don’t think cold. Breathe deeply and just feel the air. It is an amazing feeling. Even just typing it makes me feel good.

  4. Thanks TK. Highest barometer reading of the year on my home station today, 1041.3mb and rising! I’d heard there was a chance of November records falling in that category, not sure what the records are though.

  5. Thank you TK. And I want to wish all of my WHW family a very Happy Thanksgiving as I may not have time to get here tomorrow.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Frosty this morning, but Really Nice!! Love it.

    re: Judah Cohen

    I was very difficult to figure out what he was forecasting for the Winter.
    I “thought” I heard him say he is forecasting snow and cold, but not as bad as last
    Winter with Boston coming in at 62 inches.

    Although both Harvey and Judah are excellent, I have to say the presentation
    SUCKED big time. Very disjointed and very difficult to pick out his actual forecast
    from the discussion.

    My take was that Dr. Cohen is very aware of El Nino, but thinks that the Siberian
    Snow factor will have a large impact and thus he is going with more snow and cold
    than other forecasters.

    We shall see.

    1. Excerpt from Dr. Cohen’s blog.

      Therefore we continue to anticipate the active transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere and a weakening of the polar vortex later in December and or early January. Following the weakened polar vortex we would further expect a negative AO and cold temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere continents. However if the WAF ( wave activity flux) stays close to or below normal then the polar vortex will remain strong, the AO positive and the overall weather pattern mild to even very mild.

      So he is really hinging his forecast on this happening. We shall see.

      Link:

      http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    2. I think the word is out that this winter is not going too be as bad as last winter and a lot of talks being based on years with strong El Niño and how the snow totals not that impressive. To much being banked on this one scenario and I think folks will be surprised on the outcome . I don’t think it’s going to be a backend dumping I think it will evenly spaced out with healthy numbers come March though I don’t think as high as lest season maybe – 40 or so inches.

      1. When you have the strongest or second strongest El Nino in observed history, it’s going to have a significant impact one way or another, and one that is greater than the snow cover in Siberia, which only impacts temperatures in portions of the northern hemisphere, depending on the configuration of several other things.

        1. TK, did you have a look at the discussion? Curious.
          Dr. Cohen gives a valid reason (at least in his mind)
          as to why the impact of El Nino “could” be reduced.

          1. I managed to stay awake to see the Dr. Cohen interview, Dave. Maybe I wasn’t awake enough, but it was really disjointed. Very difficult to understand what he was saying. Didn’t help that the camera shots kept jumping around and Harvey kept putting in his 2 cents. I agree with you that he seemed to think above normal snowfall for us. But not easy to conclude that from the presentation. Maybe TK should have interviewed him.

            1. The first thing I’d ask him is why last year he said he doesn’t forecast snow amounts with that method and only gave a forecast for temperatures. I know the model he runs does predict snowfall, though last year he made a point of it not to talk about amounts at all.

            1. Interesting to say the least.

              What did you make of his comment about not using more distant past El Ninos
              as comparison due to lack of Arctic
              warming at that time.

              He made quite a point of that and it
              appeared to influence his forecast
              greatly.

              Just curious to get your thoughts to
              round out the discussion.

              many thanks

              1. He makes a great point with it and I’m not ever going to do anything to take away from this guy’s expertise. I just think there are more pieces to the puzzle that we cannot ignore.

  7. In my mind, there are so many factors to consider for a winter forecast. Most factors are known but some are unknown even to the most knowledgeable forecaster. I also understand some factors are weighted more than others. With that said, the majority of the winter forecasts I’ve seen are based mostly off the strong El Nino and how past winters have ended up with similar conditions. Fair enough, and if I were a betting man, I’d play those cards too. Some winter forecasts are even based off the chances of 3 years in a row with significantly above average snowfall being very low. Again, fair enough, safe play. Now allow me to step on my soapbox for a moment. A few things I’ve learned about weather since reading the blog starting back in the BZ days is to expect the unexpected especially in NE and to throw the numbers out the window. One thing is for certain. It WILL snow this winter 🙂 Happy Thanksgiving!

    1. Nice Ace. Not sure if you have read some of the discussions from the links above.

      One thing Dr. Cohen is warning about is to NOT use some past year
      El Ninos as an analog as to what might be expected this year.
      Reason: IN those past Strong El Nino’s the Arctic was much colder than
      it is now. He basically says to throw those out the window.

      So, I agree with you. In New England there is always the WILD CARD.

      Shall be an interesting Winter!!!

    2. If Boston went above this year, it’d be 4 years in a row. 4 or more consecutive above normal snow Winters has only happened ONCE going back to the beginning of Boston’s snowfall records, and it was actually 9 consecutive Winters starting with 1963-1964 and going through 1971-1972. An anomaly that odds are highly against repeating any time soon.

  8. Today is exactly one month from Christmas Day. It will be interesting as to what the landscape will look like. 🙂

  10. A much nicer Thanksgiving Eve this year compared to last year when we were dealing with snow ice and rain. I had a White Thanksgiving last year but not a White Christmas as on Christmas eve last year it was mild and rainy.

          1. I want sure you were going to answer so looked back. You said when you landed there was more snow there than here…or did you land somewhere else? You had miles to go…..sorry I’m feeling Robert Frost-ish 🙂

        2. It actually was brought up at the dinner table of 26, we were still enjoying fall there. They did ask us how do we deal with such harsh winters. I’ll be honest we both said you just do, but did say we have had many thoughts of moving and starting a business or 2 in North Carolina. We do like it here very much, the winters though do beat you down. Especially like the last few, another winter like last year and I’d bet we start exploring a bit more aggressively. 🙂 happy thanksgiving

          1. Missouri? Mac’s parent company was in Missouri. I thought they had huge temp swings with potentially bitter winter temps???

            Either way this is what I saw

            Charlie says:
            November 27, 2014 at 11:05 AM
            Landed!!! Now heading south 200 miles, it’s colder and there’s more snow here, crazy

    1. No, you most certainly did not break the blog. Twas the night before Thanksgiving, and all is quiet on the blog.

      Next week may be the rainiest we’ve had all year.

      1. Will help with the rain deficit, that is for sure. I notice water in this area is a bit higher than it has been in a while. It is nice to see

    1. You’re an optimist, Charlie. That was a win, but against an inferior team. Celtics must play more consistently, or they’ll just wind up a .500 team. They have more talent, but have not put it together yet on a consistent basis. What has surprised me most are the lapses on defense.

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