Sunday Forecast

42 Comments

2:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)…
Small area of high pressure builds in today with fair and cool weather. Weak trough drops southward through the region tonight with a few clouds but turns the wind more onshore overnight into Monday, which will be a colder day with the potential for some ocean cloudiness dominating parts of the area. Cannot rule out some light precipitation if enough moisture is pulled in from the ocean, especially early Monday. Disturbance from the southwest will bring a chance of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, then intensify as it moves away by Thursday with a shot of windy and chilly weather.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Risk of rain or snow showers mainly coast and south of Boston. Highs 35-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle then rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)…
Disturbances in the southern jet stream stay well to the south and a fair and mild regime will be in place here during this period. May just have to watch for one disturbance with brief unsettled weather around December 7.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)…
Pattern goes into transition with a couple of wet weather events and a continuation of above normal temperatures.

42 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. I know someone will ask me what I mean by “pattern goes into transition” in my 11-15 day segment. It means that as things readjust we may bring a couple of southern stream systems further north for some wet weather though it will be mild during this time, and this is a short-lived transition to what I think may be a colder interlude sometime during the second half of the month. I’m not necessarily anticipating a switch to cold/stormy, but more likely seasonable cold and continued dry overall. Not sure exactly how this plays out yet, but I don’t think it’s going to be the signal of a long term pattern change. El Nino is going to be the dominant force for a while and I do not think the changes that Dr. Cohen indicated were possible for later December and January are going to take place, at least not at that time. However he did indicate the potential for the mild regime to remain dominant as well.

  2. Thanks tk 🙂

    Saw last night another national news station agree with you. “Overall above average temps for a while”

  3. Good Morning and thank you TK.

    Game Day!

    Should be extremely interesting.

    NWS Denver Discussion:

    AN EXTRA PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL
    ROUND THE LOW AND PUSH INTO COLORADO THIS EVENING TURNING QG
    MOTION UPWARD AGAIN. LOOK FOR SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING…THEN QUICKLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS HINTING AT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COOLING ALOFT TO HELP THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE. UPWARD QG VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
    INCREASING…PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERALL…MOISTURE IS NOT
    ALL THAT MUCH SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH FOR ANY SORT OF HIGHLIGHT. LOOK FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE ABOUT 2 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS…AGAIN WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. WITH THE JET STREAK PASSING OVERHEAD…THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW BANDING WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES…THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND LOW DENSITY.

    I70 is BINGO for Denver. map:

    https://www.google.com/maps/vt/data=RfCSdfNZ0LFPrHSm0ublXdzhdrDFhtmHhN1u-gM,il9rIAZi1jmWNLpbXKuAIZz0czte1_qFI0rHdGpWkUgNKIXAYucgz-0lmi2Mj63fnc9KyvjD87-6rwzWmmcPPyimFPQkBMEzww4cG_5117RTWGU_30X-bdA5xy_9MBQV8He7BQGHcze1J-4CLKUfSJxBkws9aIbaW-5rTRMPb5o9roCugTztqzAYAwaasssMTmiesuoFN7s8HUg

    3. Yep. That’s what we have. And when you get to the base of the two big maples you can multiply that by well over 100

  8. I don’t remember winter moths around when I was younger – in fact, I only have noticed them in the past few years. I looked them up and apparently they showed up in the 1930’s. But I still don’t remember seeing any around up until a few years ago. Does anyone know when they came into Massachusetts?

    We also have an abundance of them. We were considering visiting the Fatima Shrine in Holliston tonight for the Christmas lights but between the cold temps. and all the moths, not so sure.

  9. Not getting my hopes up but 12z GFS is showing some snow for SNE when looking at the entire 384 hours of that run.

    1. Pamela Gardner on WBZ mentioned on air that ocean effect very light snows could develop along the coast first thing Monday morning from Boston to Cape with the Cape best chance if I understood correctly.

  10. TK – Based on your thoughts above regarding El Nino, in the long term will February be the month that begins the process of El Nino breaking down and weakening?

    1. I believe so but that doesn’t automatically mean we jump into a harsh pattern. A lot has to happen and MJO is not likely to be in the right phase around then.

  11. Regarding winter moths I have no idea when they came to Massachusetts and that I don’t recall seeing them up until the past few years either. I saw one yesterday at work and one on my MBTA bus on my way home. They seem to like indoors as well.

    The ony things I know about them is that they originated in northern Europe and the males only have the ability to fly while the females are practically wingless.

  13. RE: tomorrow AM

    TK , above, mentioned the possibility of some light snow and/or rain tomorrow AM.

    😀

    1. Of course those are weak echos, but none-the-less we could see a touch of snow in the air tomorrow morning. 😀

      1. Charlie it was not supposed to work for another couple of years. They knew that. It takes a while for the, to establish.

  22. Can’t believe my Cowboys are only two games back at 3-8. Realistically I think its a very very low chance to win the NFC East but there is a chance.

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