Saturday Forecast

53 Comments

8:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)…
In these final days before Christmas we’ll see a shot of cold air then a return to mild weather again. The weekend will be a chilly one with Saturday having a gusty wind and a few scattered snow showers as a rare cold air mass from Canada comes across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The chill will hang around Sunday though it will begin to moderate a little and will feel even milder with much less wind. High pressure sinks to the southeast by Monday with a milder southwesterly flow and mainly fair weather. A weak cold front will produce more cloudiness and a few rain showers early Tuesday followed by drier weather as a weak bubble of high pressure moves in. A broad disturbance and more prominent southerly flow will bring unsettled weather into the region Wednesday, though the system may lack some support leading to a more meager rain risk than might have been expected.
TODAY: Variably cloudy – clouds most dominant this morning with sun more dominant during the afternoon. Isolated snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill 25-30.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill under 20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)…
Upper level high pressure will be centered off the East Coast but will be knocked down a little bit but a fast-moving trough in the northern jet stream. This will bring a change in air mass in southern New England by December 25, which will mean a cooler Christmas Day after a mild Christmas Eve. Rain shower chances should be limited to the early part of Christmas Eve, that is the morning of December 24 with an additional rain shower possible early December 25, otherwise mainly dry weather will dominate. A broad low pressure area to the south and west by later in the period will send cloudiness back in and eventually rain chances as the mild air will continue to be dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)…
Unsettled weather may start the period (rain/mix/snow – too early to tell), but then as 2015 ends and 2016 arrives, expect the overall pattern of mild/dry weather to continue.

53 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Long range outlook not looking very encouraging at all.

    Lakes cutters all over the place. I don’t think I have ever seen so many.
    Probably have but just can’t remember.

    YIKES what a pathetic pattern.

    1. Agreed. Only difference is temperature dips a little which may allow some of the higher elevation ski areas to get some snow from a few of these systems. For us just rain.

    2. Yes we’ve had a few patterns during my observing years that have been similar.

      It’s just the pattern we expected. If one thing is “missing” it’s not quite as cold in eastern Canada as I thought it may be. But that will change a little in the next 2 weeks.

  2. Hadi, I’m sorry I forgot to ask you how you are doing. I read that you’ve had some health issues. I wish you and your family well.

    Vicki, You appear to be holding up well. But, this has been a difficult year for you and your family. Take good care.

  3. Charlie, how was the Holiday Pops? I used to go there with my children. Always enjoyed it. I remember dressing up the kids in their Christmas outfits (lots of dark green and red, that is). Their Mom looked fabulous. I, on the other hand, probably looked a little like something the cat dragged in – rumpled Columbo winter overcoat and all – but that’s okay.

    You said you were sitting close to Pete Bouchard. He seems like a nice person. I think he’s got French Canadian blood in him. I see lots and lots of Bouchards in Quebec. I also see the name in parts of Maine.

    3. Love the holiday pops. Want to take grandkids…especially oldest who loves music and dance. I have not been in too long

  6. TK – Will January be pretty much a carbon copy of December?

    Also, does Buffalo get to keep any of its snow for Christmas? I am wondering if due to low sun angle any deep woods snow especially would remain in spite of the warmth returning.

  7. I sense that the first regional frozen event will be sleet or ice vs snow. Too much warm advection in the column in this El Niño pattern to keep the whole column cold.

    But, eventually, enough colder air in Canada will intrude at lower levels to introduce frozen. I think you can see this on the GFS for very late December or early January.

    Philip, if we get warm surges, especially like Thursday where it’s 60F+ with des points not much lower, any snow anywhere will melt quickly.

  9. TK РDoes the mild/dry pattern continue for the entire month of January or will El Ni̱o finally break down in the second half like it did last year?

  11. I’m back home in Wrentham for winter break. Funny when normal temperatures feel so abnormal! Last year the snow blitz began as soon as I left for second semester, so perhaps we’ll have to wait another month or so again this year 😉

    If you want some Saturday reading, check out the link below… the ECMWF model receives a significant upgrade late this winter (if the schedule holds). Details are at the link. Horizontal resolution improves to 9km- crazy for a global model! That’s better than the NAM! Physics/numerics/assimilation improvements as well. The new version is already being run in a “parallel” capacity, and there’s definitely a difference, not just in resolution but in large scale outcomes as well.

    https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2

  12. And so concludes another year of 48 minutes of Christmas shopping 🙂 🙂 🙂

    It is nice outside.

    2. Laughing loudly here ….very male of you and I truly do say that with complete respect. I should be as efficient.

  13. A few snow flakes falling outside my window right now. First time seeing snow flakes since October 18th. Now can I see a coating of snow next instead of flakes.

  14. Weather Channel Headline!!!!

    Warmest Christmas Week in Living Memory Possible as ‘Blowtorch’ Weather Pattern Likely in the East, Midwest

    1. WRONG!!!! I have seen it before. I “think” I am still counted among the living. I hope anyway. 😆

      1. Has it been this warm for a whole week or just a couple of days? I am not recalling a long period such as this but could have bleeped it out as I don’t mind it warm but really do like the cold on or right around Christmas. After all, it is why I do not live in one of those unfortunate always warm states

    2. That will be a very bad headline for most areas. A few records will fall, but records are broken. Our period of record is not that long (even though some think it is). It also will not be sustained everywhere for an entire week.

      They will conveniently ignore the cold interlude in the Northeast this weekend and the fact that the ridge will get knocked down slightly later Christmas Eve through Christmas Day.

      Of course it’s SOMEWHAT unusual to be this mild this frequently. But how many times have we had El Nino at this magnitude centered in the part of the ocean it’s centered in? That’s right!

  15. Hoping I don’t have to wait two months before seeing snow flakes again after seeing some this afternoon.

        1. The wind died a bit and after a few holes of walking the blood got moving. The last five holes were divine.
          I still want snow tho. The ski resorts need it desperately.

          1. Glad you got a round in. How’d you do?

            I know courses were open this late…couldn’t have been last year or could it. Maybe year before. I remember sandy burr still had flags in which surprised Mac. The next summer the manager complained about condition of greens. It was not this warm this consistently though

            1. I played golf every month from 2011 thru last December of ’14. But then for some reason I never got out again last winter. Not sure why. 🙂

  16. MassBay I was not on the golf course today. It was a little bit chilly out there today to golf. I was doing Christmas shopping. Next Saturday looks like the temperatures will be to a level where it will be good to do some late December golfing.

  17. El Nino is still very dominant. However, subtle changes ahead. The lack of snow in north country (ski areas) will gradually come to an end. While there will be a day or two or very mild temps, it’ll most be above average, but not well above average. Snow is likely between Christmas and New Year’s anywhere above 2500 feet – almost every day.

    1. The highest elevation areas up North have a base elevation of “about” 2,000
      feet. Too bad those peaks weren’t at least double their current heights.
      This season, they’re going to need base elevations of at least 5,000 feet. Too bad
      that ain’t happening.

      Hope you are correct. At least salvage the ski season up North, even if it
      never snows here. 😀

    1. The snow showers tonight across ski country are limited, but it’s this westerly flow that will likely be increasingly dominant in the coming weeks. Won’t help us in SNE in the snow department, but should ease concerns up north. Their problem has been a very persistent south and southwesterly in recent weeks. They’re going to get another shot of that soon, but it appears that after a mild surge of air a prevailing cooler air mass will settle in up north. This is unfortunately looking a little bit like 2011-2012. Back then, ski country didn’t get a lot of snow, but with snow making just enough to operate at or near capacity from late December January until early March. One notable difference is that in late December 2011 all of NE was impacted by a quite vigorous cold air mass for about 3 days. That is not happening this year.

  20. I just saw a news headline stating this upcoming week, and to end the year will be above average to much above average, to possibly record breaking highs. In 2011/12 we starting lime visits in late February. (This was the earliest for us). Last year was the latest start time, and that was March 23rd. 🙂 It would be nice to start March 1st or sometime in the beginning of March. 🙂

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