8:33AM
DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)…
Same idea as yesterday’s post. Ridge rules aloft, but a front wavering around the area the next couple days causes occasional wet weather with most rain during the morning to early afternoon today and Wednesday afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary lifts to the north allowing the warmest air of the stretch in for the daylight hours of Christmas Eve (Thursday) before a cold front knocks it back a little bit for Christmas Day (Friday). A few rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm may occur with this approaching boundary sometime on Thursday. So no “old fashioned feel of Christmas” this year, but we are always at the mercy of Mother Nature and her complex weather patterns, and this year’s El Nino driven pattern says WARM and GREEN/BROWN Christmas! As we head into “Christmas Weekend” we’ll watch for an approaching wave of low pressure by late Saturday with clouds and a rain risk.
TODAY: Cloudy into mid afternoon with periods of rain. Breaking clouds especially Boston area westward at the end of the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain redeveloping from south to north midday through afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain early, then isolated rain showers. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm late. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 60s elsewhere.
FRIDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)…
Cooler with some unsettled weather with a departing low pressure wave still bringing the risk of wet weather to southern areas December 27 before another system brings a risk of wet weather late December 28 into December 29. The last couple days of 2015 look drier and should turn more seasonably chilly.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)…
The first few days of 2016 look mainly dry and seasonably chilly to slightly milder than normal. Watching for possible unsettled weather later in the period but low confidence this far in advance.
Thank you.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Sure does NOT feel like the Christmas Season. NOT even close!!
Another very mild day on tap.
Thanks Tk 🙂
Wet morning but mild temp is 50 degrees 🙂
I believe we will come very close to the latest snowfall record. I believe it doesn’t snow before Jan 4th or 5th. Will see what happens after that.
January 2 and January 6 are the next days to watch.
But the GFS has been toying with us all along, so we shall see.
Oh good – I guess January 7 I believe.
Dr. Judah Cohen’s Blog.
Some excerpts:
However with time, the models are suggesting that the regions of dominant positive geopotential height anomalies will be centered in western North America, Scandinavia/Barents-Kara Seas and East Asia. The ridging in western North America will help to deepen lower geopotential heights and troughing across eastern North America. Therefore we expect a gradual return of more typical winter weather for the Eastern United States.
Still enough energy is absorbed to stretch the polar vortex so as to increase cross-polar flow from Siberia into eastern North America and commence a cooling trend. The models are now predicting a second pulse of energy the first week of January. This is likely to perturb the polar vortex even further. And we anticipate further pulses of energy. The predicted circulation pattern of ridging in the Barents-Kara Seas/Northwest Eurasia and troughing in East Asia/the North Pacific is optimal for exciting energy pulses from the troposphere to be absorbed into the stratospheric polar vortex. Therefore we continue to anticipate even more pulses of energy transfer into mid-January. The duration and the strength of this energy transfer will strongly influence the variability of the polar vortex. We continue to anticipate that the polar vortex will be sufficiently perturbed/weakened to allow colder weather to spread over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes starting in January.
The counter clockwise flow around the stratospheric polar vortex will increase cross-polar flow from Siberia into eastern North America. This will likely contribute to the predicted cooling trend across the Eastern United States. Following the circulation of air downstream towards Europe results in a strong onshore or mild maritime flow into Europe. This pattern is reminiscent of the past two winters with a cold northerly flow of air into the Eastern United States and a strong mild westerly flow of air into Europe.
Therefore, based on the polar vortex model and the upcoming atmospheric circulation pattern, we are anticipating more upward pulses of WAFz. If the predicted atmospheric circulation pattern is correct and our expectations of more upward pulses of WAFz is correct, this should be sufficient to force a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in January. And if our expectations of a weakened polar vortex verify, this will likely favor an increased likelihood of severe winter weather across the continents of the Northern Hemisphere.
The SST anomalies have plateaued and are likely near or past their peak. Also of note, the models are predicting a fairly rapid weakening of El Niño through the winter months, which is fairly typical. The predicted atmospheric pattern with low heights over Alaska and most of the precipitation aimed at the Pacific Northwest is more closely associated with La Niña than El Niño.
All-in-All, a very interesting read this week. Although he still has a little hedging in there, this week’s blog exudes a CONFIDENCE that has been lacking in previous blogs. In other words, SOMETHING is likely going on.
Link
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
Go big or go home! Zero measurable snow in Boston for the entire winter.
I am on record as vehemently disagreeing with you.
Boston will see plenty of measurable snow this season.
25-35 inches, half of it in one storm. 🙂
Thank you TK.
I watched the lighting of the National Tree last night, and it was a lovely show. The Mormon Tabernacle Choir with the cast of Sesame Street followed it, and it was exceptional IMHO. It was based in part on the songs of old movie, Christmas Eve on Sesame Street. A tradition in our home from the time our children were very young was to watch Christmas Eve on Sesame Street on Christmas Eve. It is a a wonderful movie for young and old and a reminder that we need to keep Christmas in our hearts all year long.
I agree that it sure doesn’t feel like a New England Christmas outside. However, I think it is a reminder to many at this time of year – certainly to me – that Christmas isn’t what we can see and feel; it is what is in our hearts and nothing can ever take that away or diminish it.
Bingo, Vicki.
Christmas is Spirit. 🙂
🙂
Picking up on a theme by TOM re: Ocean Effect Snows
After digesting Dr. Cohen’s blog, I do believe that Tom’s suggestion of some
ocean effect snows may be in the cards. AND when it does come, with the anomalous
SSTs in our area and COLD air from the North, we “could” see a Significant Ocean
Effect event and perhaps some Ocean enhanced synoptic snow events as well, even
More pronounced than last year (I am not suggesting more snow than last year, just a more pronounced ocean enhancement of any snow events that do occur)
This Winter “may” just turn out interesting after all.
IF Not, then MORE of the SAME!!!!!
Thanks, TK.
Happy Solstice, everyone!
Can someone give a general forecast for Foxborough for January 1? I cannot read a forecast model to save my life.
Just curious what the weather will be like for the Winter Classic hockey game at Gillette between the Bruins and Canadiens.
Will they be playing for the Slurpee Cup? Will the ice be mush?
Dry and chilly.
Here ya go.
From the 06Z GFS, 18Z (1PM) temperatures for 1/1/2016:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122206/gfs_T2m_us_42.png
Note: this is just one model and it is 10 days out and it is a 6Z run, but if you are looking for an early prognosis, there it is. Monitor for the changes as there will most certainly be some.
I’m still not going to buy into the “doesn’t feel like Christmas” idea. It’s not all that often we have this set-up and this kind of anomaly so consistently, so in a way I’m enjoying it. And the season is the season. Maybe it feels like South Carolina up here this year but so be it. I’m playing the ever living crap out of my favorite music, movies, and specials, and it’s all right with me.
Yesterday, Dad’s headstone was finally put in at the cemetery. It’s absolutely beautiful. Mom cried a lot, understandably, but she is VERY VERY happy with it and very pleased it is now in. A bit of sadness without Dad here, but much more happiness that he’s at peace and still with us in many ways. Truly a happy holiday, no matter the weather. 🙂
Absolutely.
There is a finality when the gravestone is in place. I’m glad you were there with your mom.
As far as South Carolina…you made me chuckle. I just spent about 30 minutes on the phone with an associate from SC and he said it is like FL there. It is supposed to be near 80 on Christmas day. It is all relative.
Thanks TK. Happy to hear about your family and agree with you that the mild weather doesn’t take away the Christmas feeling.
I’m keeping an eye on the 12/28-12/30 period. At least one storm system likely moves west of us, we’ll have colder air in place to start with a pretty strong high to our north. Decent setup for front end snow/icing, and indeed the 0z Euro showed this scenario (it is slower on timing than the GFS and there are some differences in how it portrays the storm as well). Problem I see is that the “colder air” just won’t be that cold. Could be a factor for inland areas though. Looks like at least a more normal pattern developing into early 2016, though still likely biased warm.
Yes, for that storm threat centered around the 29th the “cold” air probably will not nearly be cold enough. Already talking to a few colleagues about this and we are all in the same thought bubble on it.
A broad trough tries to come across in the early days of January but you’ll see the pattern will not just suddenly flip completely. I still think we’re going to see a lot of independence between the polar and subtropical jets. Have you noticed that atypical of some El Nino set-ups, the Southeast is not cool/stormy yet. This is likely due to the magnitude and location of the El Nino, at least in part.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thank you, TK. Your forecasts are always informative and accurate.
I am going to have to respectfully disagree about the Christmas feel, though. It’s weird outside. And I’ve heard this sentiment from people who love mild winters! It’s also really gloomy. Air is not clean, or particularly breathable. Try to take a deep breath, and you’ll know what I mean. It’ll be harder to do than on a sunny, crisp day. If you’re a runner, you’ll really know what I mean. And this is very rare in December. Didn’t happen as much last year. Didn’t happen as much in 2011, either. I would be fine with a few days like this or even a week, but it’s been brutal in terms of lack of sun, lack of any cold, insects, and sweat. It’s muggy – my coats sweaters and suits smell – they’re being dry-cleaned or washed as I write this.
I respectfully disagree as well.
I will give anyone their right to say it feels like Christmas.
BUT, to me it does NOT and No Words will make ever me change how I
feel about it. 😀
That being said, Ho Ho Ho!
I guess I’m just glad I see it the way I do.
TSO is blasting from my stereo. I’m home by myself right now. Taking Mom to grocery shopping in a short while and then to lunch.
Later on a little ride with my son to see some lights and a couple more specials and 2 movies tonight and a Bruins DVR-delayed game.
As long as I am alive, I will never allow myself to miss out on the feeling of the season. No way. Never. And the weather will certainly never come close to doing that to me. It may be more powerful than my body, but it’s never more powerful than my mind. 😀
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRkPHMD6OlQ
Christmas In The Air – Trans-Siberian Orchestra
Good for you. I only wish I could do that, but I can’t so I’m not going to fret about it. I’ll just try to make the best of it.
Enjoy your day.
Heading out for the day shortly.
Visiting some friends and family in Weymouth (Delivering some gifts) and going out to dinner. See, I have the spirit, but clearly it is not the same
with the weather being out of sync. FWIW, my wife feels exactly the same way
as does my son and daughter. (I trained them well!) 😀 😆 😀
Even going to see the show “ONCE” at the Shubert this
weekend.
http://www.citicenter.org/once?gclid=CMKq87nq78kCFdaRHwodPeMIZg
re: the 29th
12Z GFS wants to give us a touch of front end snow before the forces of evil take
over and warm it up aloft.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015122212&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=162
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=165
Thanks TK !
Put me down for 70F to 73F Thursday at Logan. Here’s why …..
12z EURO at 48 hrs shows 850 mb temps at 15C !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! over southern New England with enough wind to mix the column pretty well. I think its going to be 65F or so at 7am Thursday morning.
Then, if you look 24 hrs later, 7am Christmas morning, the 850 mb temps have only cooled to 5 to 10C, which implies that the 850 mb temps probably stay btwn 10 and 15C into Thursday afternoon.
Finally, the wind should be going from SW to WSW, maybe even W during Thursday afternoon, so, if anything, there might be a bit of downslope warming off of the Berkshires. A splash or 2 of sunshine to the mix and …………
Both today’s ooz and 12z EURO have one heck of a back door cold front about 6 days out from now. Strong eastern Canada high pressure with a decent shot of cold air.
I wonder if that signal continues in the coming days, I don’t know if I fully buy into it yet.
Eastern Canada trending a bit colder.
Good ….. While I’m very much enjoying the warmth, I like back door fronts any time of year and think it will be interesting to see the warm and cold battle.
I think it feels like Christmas, thanks tk 🙂
Somehow I knew you’d say that. You’re a positive man, Charlie. It’s a good thing.
What, Charlie positive???
Think about it 🙂
Thunder?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Doppler radar shows some heavy showers to the south of us. I haven’t heard any thunder – yet. Wow! I’m posting doppler radar in late Dec.! With no snow!
I had to leave for appointment si couldn’t correct. It was son in law dragging in two big recycling barrels. And here I was so excited
I always thought thunder was the angels bowling.
Now I know it is your son moving barrels.
Hahahahaha. Love your sense of humor
Thanks, TK.
TK, you’re a positive man. I like that. I’m not a negative man, but external factors like weather do get me down. I’ve got a case of S.A. D. I’ll get over it. This said, I bought my gifts. I’m a better giver than receiver. Have my small tree and poinsettia’s. Even an advent calendar (it’s my mother’s, from the 1930s). I now know that baby Jesus is behind the large doors representing 24 December. As a child I remember counting down the days to Christmas with the advent calendar, much to the chagrin of my Jewish father. That’s what happens when you have a mixed marriage. The kids want a bit of everything. And, they’re sometimes confused as to who they are – what religious identity they have. I’m not religious, but love the morals, ethics, and stories contained in religion. This includes the two religions I know: Judaism and Christianity.
Xmas is what we make it. Weather doesn’t change the fact that it’s time to appreciate others vs ourselves. I have a new found outlook on what the holidays mean. I will spend some time with my kids and wife and cherish every second of it. I can’t control anything so all I can control is through my actions.
🙂
Nice Hadi
Glad to see you back on WHW. We missed you here.
Wanted to leave this here for Charlie 🙂
http://www.wsj.com/articles/sun-soaked-states-see-populations-grow-census-bureau-reports-1450804845
Joshua – I can kind of understand what you are saying. What I feel is for the people who have no one to be with during the holidays. There are lonely people out there. Like Hadi says, appreciate what we have.
I am of Jewish heritage and converted to Catholicism a few yrs. ago. My husband and family are not Christian. I converted for personal reasons. One thing – wasn’t Christ born where there was no snow? In any case, we all have stuff. I hope you will be sharing Christmas with someone. My Christmas will be with just me and my husband. My sister goes elsewhere and my parents are gone. On another note – is Kimmirut in total darkness now?
Chances are good Christ was born around August. You
Are right about people having no one and that is so very sad.
I always made a joke (in good taste of course) that Jesus was born in the Summer and Christmas is in December because it took the kings so damn long to travel across the desert. Any longer and you’d have observed a baby taking his first steps and getting ready for the potty training. 😉
Love it TK. I’ll share that with daughter #1. She is on a mission to change christmas to further from thanksgiving so we have more time to appreciate it.
12Z GFS also shows 850 temp of 15C over SNE for Thursday.
If it were summer with high sun angle and sunshine, it would be about 86.
70 is not totally out of the question here at all.
I mentioned the possibility the other day and it was not well received. 😀
When did winter begin? I thought it was last night.
Yup 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Thank one of my “friends” on BZ blogs is telling me tonight at 11:48
11:48PM EST December 21 here, 04:48 GMT December 22. Same time, different dates.
Obs showing dp’s of 55 to 60F in SE Mass and now that I’ve had a chance to get outside, I believe those readings. For winter, it’s downright tropical feeling.
Currently dark and pouring !!!!!
Rainshine, Nice comment. Indeed, it’s important that people have somewhere or someone to turn to on Christmas. I hope everyone on this blog has this good fortune. I’m lucky I do. Besides my son being around in the afternoon of Christmas, a good friend of mine will visit Christmas morning. She and I were romantic partners at one time. We’re now close (best) friends.
Vicki, Jesus was probably born in summer. However, there’s an ongoing controversy regarding the precise date. I like the idea of Christmas during the darkest period of the year, as it certainly brightens things up. I also understand that many of our traditions come from German (pagan) rituals. Nevertheless, I’m a firm believer in religious celebrations (holidays) being a an artifact of culture in addition to religion.
Creating separation between Thanksgiving and Christmas makes a LOT of sense. It’s kind of crazy that folks make two trips to family and friends within a 3 to 4 week span. I know that at colleges and universities it’s disruptive and inefficient. While I realize that one holiday is most definitely date-appropriate (Thanksgiving), I’m in favor of moving it to October. Lengthening Columbus Day weekend to a 5-day affair would be good. I know my idea would never fly.
Daughter wants to move Christmas to January.
I’m fine as it is.
I too hope everyone here as someone to share the holiday with.
Christmas blossoms blooming in Berlin, where it’s been way above normal temperature-wise for two months. Same throughout northern Europe. Records shattering. TK is right to point out that records are made to be broken. Nevertheless, it’s remarkable how warm it is throughout much of the habitable northern hemisphere. This article is in Dutch, but the photos and video are worth viewing.
http://nos.nl/artikel/2076824-ondanks-warme-weer-toch-een-witte-kerst-in-berlijn.html
In contrast to a lot of record cold outbreaks in recent years in the Mediterranean and other parts of Europe. Average comes from extremes at both ends. 🙂
You are right about cold outbreaks in recent years in the Mediterranean, and also parts of the Middle East. Northern Europe, on the other hand, has seen little cold in the last 5 years or so.
We comtinue to break records. As of last year 13 of the 14 warmest years on record were in this century. This year will top all of them. My cousin ….well Mac’s….asked me last night how many 100 year storms we can have.
100 year storm etc is a very poorly conceived media term that had no business existing. 🙂
Agree. Undoubtedly not 100 years. I always took lightly. But what was rare ….not so much
Rainshine, You asked about whether Kimmirut is enveloped in darkness 24 hours. No, but it’s dark most of the time. They have about 3-4 hours of limited`light.’ Actually when it’s light out it’s mostly a sunny place. Cold usually means lots of sun.
Vicki, Your daughter has a nifty idea: Christmas in January. Keep Thanksgiving in late November, and move the Christmas holiday to January to coincide perhaps with the Serbian Christmas.
Well I’m not telling her you said that. Give her an inch and she is off and running. I told her the Pope has agreed that Christ was probably not born in December. She is not Catholic but it didn’t matter. She figures she now has Devine support
It’s 58.7 degrees!!! Beautiful for final Christmas shopping!!! Love it!!! 🙂
Love this song
Pee-racticality dee-oesn’t interest me.
Love’s the life that I lead.
I’ve got a pocketful of miracles.
And with a pocketful of miracles,
One little miracle a day is all I need.
Tee-roubles more or less bee-other me, I guess,
When the sun doesn’t shine,
But there’s that pocketful of miracles.
And with a pocketful of miracles,
The world’s a bright and shiny apple that’s mine, all mine.
I hear sleigh bells ringing, smack, in the middle of May.
I go around like there’s snow around.
I feel so good; it’s Christmas ev’ry day.
Lee-ife’s a carousel fee-are as I can tell,
And I’m ridin’ for free,
So, if you’re down and out of miracles…
I’ve got a pocketful of miracles,
And there’ll be miracles enough for you and me.
(I hear sleigh bells ringing,)
Smack, in the middle of May.
I go around like there’s snow around.
(I feel so good; it’s Christmas ev’ry day.)
Lee-ife’s a carousel fee-are as I can tell,
And I’m ridin’ for free.
(I’ve got a pocketful of miracles,)
But if I had to pick a miracle;
My fav’right miracle of all is you and me.
Now that’s a great song. It’s also new to me.
By the way, I’m all for empowering women. So, let your daughter know her idea on moving Christmas is a good one.
I believe that when we have a more even split between men and women in leadership roles and decision-making there will be fewer wars and less violence. Women are not smarter than men, but they’re less prone to violence and the pursuit of single-minded objectives.
Love it Vicki!!
I think your boys would have loved the Mormon Tabernacle choir Christmas which is where I heard the song, Sue. I had not heard it for years. The sesame characters just made me smile. Cookie learned there is more to Christmas than cookies……I related that to snow.
This awful weather can’t last forever, can it? Surely we will have a return to cold and snow by June and July, won’t we? Merry Christmas everyone!
Rumors are flying that the earth’s stuck on its current tilt on its axis, which means that once El Nino subsides we’re in for perpetual winter; January through December. One exception: North Attleboro.
LOL! The Charlie hole lives on!
🙂
😆
I’m going to make an adjustment to Thursday’s forecast. The weather gods heard Dave’s wish for 70+ if we couldn’t have cold and snow. Some places may reach 70. And we’ll challenge the dew point record for meteorological winter as well. 😀
Also likely adjusting a few things around Monday/Tuesday……….
I think someone hits 75 on Thursday!!!
This is not December weather, i honestly hate this, i was hoping to go skiing with some of my friends this past weekend, but no, most areas are closed, no snow at all, man made stuff melting to quick. People are saying warm. Yes it is warm but it is also been gloomy and disgusting. This is more typical of october/november. I hope it turns a switch and i can go skiing during winter break. this wreaks of climate change.
2012: almost no snow
2013 snow blitz within a 6 week period
2014 Bitterly cold for most but most of the snow fell through a 8 week period.
the snow season is shrinking in general but when it does happen it is to extremes.
in 25 years we could be talking no artic sea ice in the summer.
Dew points are unbelievable for December, and apparently that’s going to increase later this week.
It’s high time we drop trillions of ice cubes into the Pacific, right where El Nino is centered. Mucho cubos de hielo contra El Nino.
Or clean up our act when it comes to taking care of this earth…personally, I’ll opt for the long range 😈
Today’s anomolies for the 4 southern new england climate stations are ……
+20F, 24F, 23F and 23F.
The first one is Logan. Its lowest temp is 48F for the day. While its in the mid 50s now, there seems to be a slight bubble of cool air up the coast a bit, with a northerly sfc wind along the Maine coast and in Portsmouth, NH. I wonder if that boundary might get to Logan before midnight and possible drop them into the low-mid 40s, thus lowering today’s anomoly slightly.
I think this is beautiful, if climate change has us warmer, that’s great IMO 🙂
the consequences of climate change will make you think twice before saying that if you knew anything about it.
Ok Matt lol 🙂
Oh Charlie…lol.
Let climate do what it wants to do, just because new englanders get mad because it’s not cold doesn’t mean it’s because of humans breathing to much, or because we r cutting to many trees down, it’s changing, it’s always going to change. 🙂
You do understand the highest temps on records are worldwide….right.
Yup!! Many people completely understand all of it, and let climate do its thing. It’s just many people’s opinion. I do everything I can to be environmentally friendly, I refuse to force people that don’t believe in it. Again just my opinion. 🙂
I agree climate is opinion and unknown. What is not unknown is the damage we have done to this earth.
🙂
I am an environmental science major with a marine science concentration/track, I have had contact with some of the biggest names in the field within just my first semester at UMB and seen some of their work. There is absolutly no evidence backing up the deniers. Also there is nothing that says this climate change is not happening at a higher rate due to humans. If you have a good source to prove it wrong. please show me. I can show you a lot proving mine.
As I said earlier, your generation gives me hope.
Lots of proving matt, I’m not even a wing nut leaning right republican denier, I’m middle of the road independent, I do respect your opinion.
Take care of your Earth regardless our level of impact. You clean your house for guests. Clean your Earth for the future. 🙂
Amen
Completely agree tk, really I do, but we have 2 sides, and both are leaning to far to the right or left, I’m a registered independent, I feel like a candidate like Bernie sanders which is good for vt, where folks mainly have little economy with lots of climate change impact like him, but to many states he doesn’t relate. I’ll be honest, every single time I watch him, we feel like he’s yelling at us. Again just my opinion.:)
Sorry I feel like I’m a voter that is a head on a swivel, one side says the most important thing is climate change, and the other says nonsense, it’s Isis, I think both are concerns, but I think climate change had more to do with natural change than anything to do with humans. I believe it’s selfish of us to think that us as little humans can change weather, if we wanted to change weather, “we could”.
Look at some of the great bloggers on here stating to pour millions of cubes of ice cubes in El Niño, sure I know there only kidding, I hope, but I think El Niño is natural. 🙂
I understand the view Charlie. I don’t tend to poke too much at people and their opinions on this regardless of whether I agree completely or not.
I’m a middle of the road type political guy, independent, etc., and all of that too. I’m not a fan of far left. I’m not a fan of far right. But that’s just me. I don’t tend to talk about it much. I just quietly do my voting and hope for the best.
My views on climate are pretty clear since I repeat them frequently.
Do we impact Earth? I sure hope so, because we’re here. Should we take care of it? If we know how to, then YES.
As for this pattern? See below…
I respect your opinion tk 🙂
el-nino and La nina are natural but they are becoming more extreme and extremes happening more frequent.
Wintertime HHH???
I don’t want to imagine what Easter will be like.
Probably cold and maybe white. 😉
🙂
Well, Easter is in March so… 🙂
I realize that media likes to play the “crazy weather” card etc. but there is actually a simple explanation for the degree of warmth in the East this December.
MOST of the time El Nino produces the mild weather in Canada and the northern US, and an active southern jet stream with cooler and often stormy weather in the South.
What is missing so far? The active subtropical jet stream. Why? Most likely it is the warmest water displaced to the west versus some of the other strong El Nino episodes. There are probably a couple other factors as well, but that’s the main one. So the result is, frequent ridge also in Southeast means you are pretty much doubling up in the East. Result: Big warmth. We’re on fairly uncharted territory with this El Nino in our very short history of observing weather. We go back into the 1800s. The Earth goes back WAY before that. I mean way, way before that. We are looking at such a small window of time, IT’S NO WONDER AT ALL that we’re going to see things we have not seen. We’re merely at the beginning of our period of record!
The problem seems to be that we understand the phenomenon but not the relation. We just do not know re natural. We do know re manmade. Makes sense to me to do what we can as it will not hurt but may well help. Many of our younguns are thinking for themselves and educating themselves. They impress me
I did find this interesting. Matt already alluded to the change in el and la
https://www.ucar.edu/communications/quarterly/winter97/connection.html
that might be TK but the climate is changing much faster than it should. we should not be having climate change so fast that species can not adapt quick enough. we are seeing extinction rates that have not been seen since the last mass extinction. only this time, humans are the asteroid. typical rate of extinction is 1 in every million per year. Today it is at 100 species per million a year. Most of this do to micro climates disappearing and or changing of the climate. Many species of insects , amphibians and many other small animals are being effected. There is enough scientific evidence today that makes that argument pretty much irrelevant. We really had to act faster to this situation earlier in the early 2000s but republicans have had their heads in their rear ends to realize it and still do. Humans are damaging this climate and contribute greatly to climate change. educating the population and un-brainwashing and changing their destructive ways will be hard. but getting the children educated about this stuff will be easier. People need to look at the big picture not the small. People need to see the overall trends. not the now. there is a lot to show this climate change and damage to earth is due to humans..
Sorry if i offend anyone with this, but the older generations have messed up this world for your future generations not helped it. There are those that have and do understand the situation though and I hope those become the large populations and the others just go away
As long as it’s political, we’ll get nowhere.
Both sides are too stupid to realize this.
I despise both parties, especially the extremes.
All they do is lie to further their agendas, and the truth is lost somewhere in the middle. Very sad.
there is one side fighting for it, the other is not, it is the fact, sorry but until the knuckle heads that do not believe in human caused climate change get the heck out, the measures that we need to take will not get done. You are saying it can not be political, these days it unfortunately has to have politics involved as we need laws put in place to get the public to do the right thing on climate change (general public) there have been way to many people brain washed by big business and republicans
Please no politics 🙂
YES SIR! 😛
I tawt I saw a putty cat….or was it mention of Bernie a few posts ago.
Matt other than the reference to the right which perhaps could have been phrased a bit better, I agree. I do believe my generation has affected this earth greatly and the one that went before did as well. The native people predicted it. We are proving it. Keep on your path. It is to be respected.
According to Eric, the top ten warmest winters for Boston have an average snowfall of 26 inches.
Makes sense to me! The ones at the top of the scale would likely be more wet than white, or just plain dry.
hmmm GFS gets snowier for the 29th. Hints of things to come????
No hints. Just that there will be some cold air around as that system comes in. It won’t last.
It looks like after s brief colder period around the beginning of the new year, it warms back up, we shall see. 🙂
Colder are in probably closer to normal, and on the dry side. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of jet stream partying going on. And it does look warmer after that (thought not to the degree of anomaly we have been this month).
El Nino is not going to weaken as fast as many had forecast. But it will go eventually.