Thursday Forecast

157 Comments

AN EDITORIAL POST APPEARS BEFORE THIS ONE

2:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)…
A very strong warm push of air has arrived and this will make for records on this Christmas Eve. A cold front will move into the region this evening, but the front will be weakening and only make a sluggish push offshore by Christmas Morning, taking temperatures down a few notches but leaving them still significantly above average for Christmas Day. A wave of low pressure on this front will bring unsettled weather back for a portion of the weekend before the front is driven south and cold air arrives from Canada by Monday.
TODAY: Starting overcast with patchy fog, areas of drizzle, and isolated rain showers. Eventual breaking clouds with partial sun possible, but still a risk of isolated rain showers. Rather humid. Record warmth – highs 60-72, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers mainly south central MA to RI early. Lows 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light rain at night. Lows 35-45. Highs 45-55.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Risk of light rain early. Isolated rain showers late. Lows 35-45. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)…
Low pressure is likely to bring unsettled weather December 29. Current timing likely means that inland areas may start as mix/snow with no more than brief mix coast before the system produces mainly rain. Lots of cloudiness may linger December 30-31 as a front is nearby, but any precipitation, likely light rain, should be limited if it occurs at all. Fair and colder weather is expected for the first couple days of 2016.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)…
Still leaning toward a pattern of more seasonably chilly and mainly dry weather for the early days of January 2016.

157 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. A heartfelt and sincere merry Christmas to all. God has blessed me and hope he does the same for all on WHW.

  4. Thank you tk!!
    Merry Christmas!!

    It’s going to be very close to 70 degrees today!!! And again mid 60’s Sunday!!!

    Same thinking, quick shot of 1-2 hours of snow Tuesday quickly changing to rain for Boston to Providence. Looking at maybe an inch of slush, as you go west of 128 amounts increase, and I don’t think it will really cause many problems until you go west of 495. I also believe Tuesday many could receive a good amount of rain, which will help the rainfall deficits. Good day all!! 🙂

    1. Merry Christmas Truck Man!

      Sunday could be interesting in that it may range from 50 to 65 from southern NH to RI.

  5. Merry Christmas Eve to my WHW friends. May your Christmas be full of wonder and family and friends and love.

    1. I always used to start the 24th with a Merry Christmas Eve to my brother closest to my age. That was such a very exiting day for us. And it still is in many ways. Today we’ll be doing some cooking in my mom’s kitchen ahead of tonight’s pasta and fish feast. It’s one of the only times all year you’ll see me in front of a fry pan. 😉

      1. TK we too have always started the day with Merry Christmas Eve. I laughed at your fry pan comment. Will you have the feast of the seven fishes? I say every year I would like to do that but somehow the day comes and goes!

        Spending kitchen time is always a treat. Enjoy.

  6. This will be your kitchen sink storm should it materialize the way the models are depicting it right now. Things could change. Sometimes the snow part over achieves in some these types of situations.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK, not only for the forecast, but the editorial.
    But then, that editorial should be aired on the NEWS at 6 and 11!!!!

    re: the 29th.
    Conflicting information, as per usual.

    GFS now is the least of the brethren!

    GFS keeps it primarily a cutter with only a weak reflection of a coastal
    that keeps snow in for only a brief period of time.

    Here is the EURO snowmap from WUNDERMAP. (If it shows. IF not, I’ll post
    an image to Imgur.com)
    The Euro develops a coastal “just” to our South. Keeps the snow in for a period, but
    goes over to rain.

    http://wxug.us/1semi

    Likewise the CMC develops a coastal, but farther to the South and is MOST ROBUST
    with the snow.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

    snowmap

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122400/gem_asnow_neus_27.png

    Putting this all together, and it sure looks like we are in for a period of Snow=>ICE=>RAIN. Not worried about freezing rain, except perhaps well inland.

    Accumulations all over the place. For Boston:

    GFS about and inch or 2 tops.
    EURO about 5-6 inches
    CMC about 10 inches or so

    Now we wait for the 12Z runs and see.

    I am also about to check the FIM and UKMET. 😀

    2. Thanks Dave! Have fun with the models. I know you love tracking stuff. 🙂

      My concern regarding snow is that the timing may end up too late… BUT, with the overall track and evolution still in question, you can’t even come close to taking the chance off the table.

      1. Of course, there is always a fly in the oinment.
        I know there is a reason you said brief period of snow or ice.

        I sure don’t like WARM SSTs with any wind component off
        of that water, most Especially this year. However, that HIGH
        looks to be a pretty decently cold one. Last evening Eric
        specifically said ARCTIC HIGH.

        IF we can get that coastal to develop, at the very least we can
        keep it SNOW for the SKI areas up North. That is the ultimate
        goal. IF we get an accumulation here, that would be gravy.

        I am realistic about our snow chances, but hopeful none-the-less. I’ve been around long enough to know what can happen. 😀

        NO MORE CUTTERS!!! I have BANNED THEM FOR THE REST OF THE WINTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. My friend drove through the warm front near Avon earlier. Immediate fogging up of car windows and 10 degree temperature jump.

  12. Thanks TK, and for the editorial as well. Merry Christmas Eve to all 🙂

    62F here in Wrentham now, a much needed 1.03″ rain from yesterday/last night, with hopefully another 1-3″ in the next 6 days. Little bit of drought improvement to close the year.

  13. Thank you, TK.

    Merry Christmas, too!

    Your editorial should be submitted to the Globe. As a meteorologist your message carries weight.

    News `reporting’ has never been worse, in my opinion. And this holds true for politics, business, culture, weather, and even sports. The country suffers from collective amnesia, an inability to pay attention for longer than a few minutes at a time, and no contextualization of any topic. I am dismayed by it.

    On a different note, to `celebrate’ the warmth today I am doing my 5-mile run in a t-shirt and shorts.

  15. the gfs is flipping back and forth between basically two possibilities.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122406&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=62
    warmer solution. with the latest gfs 06z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122400&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=62
    colder solution

    then the 18z showed a warmer solution for southern new england
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122318&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=62

    The latest canadian has gotten on board with the snow but I think a little to much

    Euro has 4-8 inches falling north of the pike in eastern and central mass but less in northwest mass at 2-4. less than 4 south of the pike heaviest amounts across interior northeast mass
    the previous Euro had more snow in western parts of the state. about the same in north central and northeast mass

    we will see what happens To early to say, something is going to happen and it will likely be a messy storm.

    1. I like your enthusiasm. We shall see.
      Something will happen, but it “could” easily end up mostly RAIN.
      Hope not.

  16. Worcester, Blue Hill, and some western MA locations have seen their calm winds become S and SW with a dramatic temperature rise.

    Perhaps soon at Logan ????

  17. Springfield still near 50 while North Adams is 67. Shows you that elevation makes a difference when trying to get a warm front through. The cool air is stuck right near the ground in some of the lower areas. The warm air will win out though this time.

    Blue Hill will warm up rapidly just before the lower elevations around them do.

    1. Back and forth here as temps are wavering between mid 50s to the low 60s…depending upon the wind. Sun trying to peak through here right now….

  18. Boston still 50F as of this posting. I just hope we don’t have to wait until sunset to experience the warmth.

  19. Splashes of sun breaking through and the wind has picked up.

    From what I can see in the breaks of the flying !!!!! low clouds, there’s not a great deal of mid or high level cloudiness above currently.

  20. “‘Twas the day before Christmas, all through my backyard green stuff is growing.” 😀

    “Tis Easter Sunday morn, not a blade of grass stirs, not even a crocus.” 😀

    2. Makes sense. In mild years, the ground is not frozen yet.

      Coming out of Winter, especially when Easter is early, the ground is often still frozen. People often have the “what it should be” mixed up. Autumn going into Winter is very often milder than Winter going into Spring around here.

      And in 2016, Easter is in March. Watch us have a record warm one now that I said that. 😛

  21. Reading on CNN, 7 people died yesterday in the severe weather. One of the tornado’s may have been on the ground for 150 miles.

    1. One was very long tracked. The set up was perfect for them. This particular setup emulates a Spring one in many ways.

        1. Sustained super cell with good transporting wind but not enough to rip it apart. They often are part of a broken line.

  26. 12Z GFS back to a more snowier solution for the 29th with a clear coastal
    development, a bit too far North to keep it all snow here, but far enough South
    to give even Boston a good slug of SNOW.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015122412&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=129

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015122412&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=132

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015122412&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=135

    Snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

  27. This is the most aggressive run of the GFS when it comes to snowfall here in SNE.
    I don’t see this as a snoworama. I think its going to be a mixorama or rainorama.
    Still plenty of time for this to change.

    1. I wonder if the CMC and EURO keep their snowy solutions as well OR
      flip flop.

      Nothing like a Flipper-Flopper-A-Rama!!!!

    1. More CMC maps

      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

      OR this

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

      OR this

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

      Don’t have the 850mb chart nor the precip type maps, however,
      this looks like an ALL day event with a good deal of snow. There may be
      some rain in the middle, but I would say the CMC wants to give primarily a snow storm. Waiting on ERUO and other CMC charts.

  33. This tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    GFS continues the theme of a wintry event on Tuesday. Pretty classic looking “southwest flow event” with snow > mix.

  35. I have been walking around Franklin Park Zoo and blades of grass growing in spots. It is still very overcast. Even the brightening has now disappeared. Would love to see at least partial sun soon.

  39. That Euro run is the most bullish yet on cold/snow for this next storm. All snow Worcester north/west, messier towards the coast but much more frozen precip than liquid.

    1. Looking at the Wunder Map, surface, 850 and snow map, it’s an all
      out snowstorm even for Boston and nearby South Shore, delivering about
      a foot or so, perhaps more. Now, it’s still 5 days out, so I wouldn’t go getting alarmed, however, this does look serious.

  40. As many of you would say to me, as if we had a milder pattern coming like some models suggest the 2nd week of January.
    Just enjoy the beautiful weather we have had and going to have over the weekend. Merry Christmas!! 🙂

  41. 2PM Logan = 68 Degrees. Will it OR won’t it make 70?
    Right now, not looking like it, but hey, 68 ain’t too shabby.

    Have to run out for some errands in a few. NOT looking forward to that!(@#&!*()@&#*!&@#*(&

  42. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan Tweet on the latest EURO run
    Sweet looking high pressure location on the Euro. Nice setup for snow and sleet.

  43. Ok that’s it… I’ve had it. This is unacceptable.

    Warm temps….ok. No snow…ok…frizzy hair….. As JPD says „]^|{%<]^%{\>|.>?€\|>.?*\|>?.*\>|?.%.^>\|

    What can I say. I was lonely enjoying the weather so thought I’d move to the dark side.

    🙂 🙂 😆

  44. To be sure, big snow falls have occurred with weak low pressure areas (2003 Presidents Day snowstorm)

    I can’t help keep noticing that the initial low is weakening on its approach and that the coastal low on both the GFS and EURO is around 1014 to 1016 mb.

    I have nothing meteorologically to prove this hunch, and that’s all that it is, but I keep thinking the event that has our attention isn’t going to end up amounting to much.

    Only time will tell 🙂 🙂 🙂

  45. Tweet from Ed Vallee who is an energy meteorologist. His take with early week storm threat.
    700 mb warmth may cause sleet faster than some think. Avoid snow maps w/ this one.

    1. If there are problems with the column out by you jj, us here in Boston and providence will for sure have big problems keeping it snow. Just adding my 2 cents. im glad we have tk to typically semur everyone down 🙂

  46. I am now back home from Frankilin Park Zoo and of course NOW the sun comes out albeit partially. For much of the time it looked like a downpour would happen at any moment. I was thinking that the warm front was going to pass by by the time I woke up in a sweat. Instead it took most of the morning at least in Boston. There were quite a few visitors considering Christmas Eve. Most came with very little kids. Back in my day, the zoo was the last place I thought anout. It was all about Santa’s overnight arrival. 🙂

    December 2015 is totally insane…I almost don’t WANT to know what December 2016 will offer. 😉

      1. Actually, when I was a kid the zoo was not even considered a visit during the winter months if it was even open for business anyway.

    2. Just think all the kids that got bikes, which is the most popular present for kids get to ride them out and about without freezing to death, along with the many other presents that are for outside.

      You pick up a sled when it snows 🙂

      1. I actually saw a couple boys on bikes on my way home…a much better gift than a sled at least this particular Christmas. When I got a bike, most years there was snow/ice so I usually had to wait until March at the earliest. This was years before “climate change”. 😉

    2. I am sorry but there a correlation. Expect stronger and longer periods of El nino. Expect it to become even more warm over time.

  48. I remember the Valentine’s Storm in 2007 which was suppose to be a 4-8 inch storm for us ended up with less snow since the column of the atmosphere was warmer than the models were showing. We ended up with a lot more sleet than snow. You got to be on the look out for any warm levels in the atmosphere that could show up and produce a different out come than what is being shown.

  49. It will be interesting if the TV mets back off their “Wintry Mix” icons soon.

    I have always wondered the difference between “wintry mix” and “icy mix” anyway…one in the same? 😉

  50. While waiting in the checkout line at a supermarket today, the clerk was telling people 1-2 inches of snow next week. 🙂

  52. I heard “3-5 inches” on a local station today.

    NO. YOU DON’T MENTION AMOUNTS 5 DAYS IN ADVANCE. STUPIDITY

    2. My grandaughters decorated their gingerbread men in bathing suits the other day. Made for an easy cleanup.

      Although my son in law (not their dad) shovels snow in shorts.

  54. As of 4pm, it’s still 68F all the way out in Albany, NY ….

    Unless the winds relax for a little radiational cooling, it’s not going to cool off quickly this evening.

  55. Looks like a pattern break will occur starting early next week. While El Nino remains strong, and above average temperatures will likely return in January, I don’t think January will feel anything like December. Why do I say this? Well, look at points west nd northwest of us. For the past 4 weeks, points west of us (all the way to the Dakota’s) were invariably well above average in terms of temperature. There wasn’t anything cold to our west. Also, very little cold to our northwest. That is already changing. Upper Midwest is returning to average and even some below average readings. These will be a sustained. To our north and northwest, colder air is poised to invade. Not extreme by any stretch, but about 15 degrees colder on average than what we’ve experienced the past 4 weeks. The traversing lows over the coming 7-10 days will serve to reinforce colder shots of air, in their wake. Even the lakes cutters will likely have this effect once the low shoots north of us. With cutters we’ll likely experience oscillating temps.

  56. Back from errands. Stores weren’t bad, but traffic was a nightmare.

    Highest temp on car thermometer was 72 in W. Roxbury and Dedham. Down to 70 at home when I arrived.

    re: Column and 700 mb temps for event of 12/29.
    GIVE ME A BREAK! You mean to say some Met thinks he knows how the column
    will be 5 days out! Yeah right, and I’ll be delivering toys to good little boys and girls tonight! HO HO HO!! HO HO HO!!!!

    Seriously, the guy “may” be correct, but this far out who can say. My GUT says he’s
    totally and completely wrong and even if he is correct, the 850 mb temps will be
    very chilly, meaning it would still be a very very Wintry storm, sleet or snow or both.

    My son has an 8AM flight to San Francisco on Tuesday morning. Guess who will be
    driving him to the airport. Oh Boy. Perhaps it will commence after about 7AM. 😀 😀

    Heading out to Hopkinton tonight to our daughters.

    1. Are you “running” to Hopkinton? Marathon in reverse. I’ve always wondered if anyone has ever done that.

      Enjoy your Christmas Eve, JP Dave.

  57. We did some of the outside decorations a bit different this year, we have large multicolored lights on the big pine tree like always but we have blinkers and also giant bulbs on the tree as well. We also decorated the patio, I guess we very well could use the patio this year for Christmas eve fire and stories.

  58. 18Z GFS pretty much stays the course. Develops a coastal, but just a bit too late
    to keep it Snow in SNE, but still dumps a slug of something like 5-7 inches.

    snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

    This will go over to a WET snow before changing. Could easily change to rain
    near the coast even with cold 850mb temps.

    This is the 18Z GFS. Let’s see what the whole 0Z suite has to say.

  64. I just opened my front door as its hot down here . Of course the fire is not helping but he wanted one tonight really bad. Off till Thursday’s so I’ll be probably on more.

  66. TK – Does Boston remain snowless for the month or will Tuesday make us “forget” today? Eric announced on the CBS Evening News that the same system currently bringing snow and cold out West will bring snow to the northeast next week.

    I don’t recall Eric using the word “could” either. 😉

    1. Well he said “Northeast” which does not necessarily mean ALL locations in the region. His message was fine.

  67. Good point made by meteorologist Justin Goldstein from WTNH here in CT about Tuesday storm potential.

    •We are many days away from the storm, and it would be foolish and irresponsible to talk totals, not at least until Sunday.

    2. Yet everyone of you bloggers announces totals from different mets, and different places that we have no idea on there reliability, just saying.

      2. Coming from someone who announced amounts himself yesterday. You know, a slushy inch building up as you go west? You had it broken down by highways, 5 days in advance, and you aren’t even a meteorologist, so I guess we don’t have to wonder about YOUR reliability. Just sayin’. 😉

        And Vicki makes a valid point. They cite the sources. These are not forecasts being made by bloggers. In fact, “you bloggers” are not responsible for communicating to thousands of people. We’re discussing the weather in a forum meant for such. It’s information sharing, which is one of the main reasons I created this blog.

  69. The point I posted from meteorologist Justin Goldstein should be the way all meteorologist go since this thing is still days a way and a lot could change.

    1. I put my snow socks on. We will see how they work. I have not worn them since before the Feb 2013 blizzard. They scared me 😉

  71. Merry Christmas Vicki! Will see what happens early next week and if we do get an accumulating snow. It is a watcher for sure.

  77. Merry Christmas all. I hope everyone has a blessed day. I am grateful for my families support though I don’t see many of them as they live far away. Let’s all remember the true meaning of Xmas which is to be thankful for others and appreciate every moment with your loved ones.

  78. Hmm

    That Tuesday event still thinking a brief shot of snow 1-2 inches, more west of 495!!
    Doesn’t look like a whole heck of a big storm whether rain or snow at this point. 🙂

    Merry Christmas

  80. Merry Christmas to my WHW family. I hope you all have a special day

    Tom, did you have high tides? Friends in kennebunkport said ocean was over sea wall and quite wild.

    1. Good morning Vicki and Merry Christmas !!

      The tides have been high, but nothing other than a little splash over. I think the S winds yesterday may have been more “onshore” in Maine, but are less so here.

  81. Merry Christmas to all at WHW ! May it be a wonderful day !!!

    Yesterday’s anomolies were +27, 29, 28 and 29F.

    I think Logan may have already touched 60F at 12:54am this morning.

    If the models are singing this snow tune come Sunday night, I’ll start to believe it. I have no doubt of a chillier to colder setup with some frozen precip, especially inland. After that, I’m not sure about all the snow. SST, no snow cover into southern Canada to reinforce the polar high, the southeast ridge with so much mild air to try to warm the middle of the column ………

  86. Here is the Tropical Tidbits 6Z GFS snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122506/gfs_asnow_neus_22.png

    The theme is a bit more warming of the column above, which many have predicted.
    Even though it redevelops to the South.

    The Euro redevelops it to the South, but keeps it relatively weak.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122506/gfs_mslpa_eus_20.png

    Here is the Euro snow map for a good chunk of it. Need to add 1-3 inches more
    on top of this.

    mgur.com/5PgSQXC

    JMA also wants to redevelop it to the South

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015122412/jma_mslpa_us_7.png

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