Saturday Forecast

147 Comments

9:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)…
Though not as anomalously warm as Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, we’ll have a mild weekend interrupted by some wet weather later tonight and early Sunday as a wave of low pressure crosses the region. Behind this, a surge of cold air arrives for Monday and sets up a little bit of a complication for the next storm system, arriving Tuesday. Though some of the computer guidance has been painting this as a possible good snow producer, their limitations are revealing themselves. A little further analysis indicates that there is going to be a strong push of warm air aloft in an already mild overall atmosphere with most of the cold air near the surface. This eventually will be scoured out as well, resulting in a storm that starts Tuesday morning as snow or mix near the coast and snow inland, then transitions to rain coast and mix inland and finally rain all areas before ending at night. Also, I’m not expecting a tremendous amount of precipitation with this system either – light to moderate amounts, the majority falling as mix/rain. However, with just enough uncertainty in place and the timing not a complete lock, I’ll wait until Monday morning’s update to call any certain accumulations of snow. Just note that there is a probability that parts of the region may have a messy commute Tuesday, and the details will be fine tuned in the next couple of days. Behind this system will be a break Wednesday as a small area of high pressure tries to move in but a frontal boundary stays near. A wave of low pressure will approach returning the risk of light precipitation, probably rain, at night.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain after 9PM. Lows 38-45. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of light rain in the morning. Isolated rain showers late. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Lows 20s to lower 30s. Highs 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)…
A weak system brings light rain/mix early Thursday then a drying trend for the final hours of 2015. Generally dry weather and a more seasonably chilly feel for the first few days of 2016.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)…
Mainly dry weather expected with temperatures near to slightly above normal during this period. There may be a few rain and/or snow showers with air mass changes from a couple of frontal systems.

147 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Something is off with the GFS…
    Too fast. Too cold. Snow forecast too high. And not just here – everywhere.
    The model output spits out 30+ inches of snow for the Friona TX area from the blizzard they are going to have tonight through early Monday, but they’ll be hard pressed to see over 15-20 inches maximum.

    1. Of course and this is just after you were telling us that the GFS has
      performed the best lately. Oh well, the way of the models. 😀

      1. I was thinking that too. It had been doing excellently with timing, but it’s mishandling something right now.

  5. I heard (i think from someone here) that there’s going to be an upgrade to the euro later this winter and is currently running parallel to the regular euro until it’s officially released. Anyone have access and if so, how different does it show Tuesday’s storm?

  9. The TV mets were announcing “plowable” amounts for Tuesday as early as Christmas Eve although I didn’t actually see any numbers. Still, IMHO the word “plowable” should not be used until at least 24-48 hours prior, not several days out. Models usually flip-flop too many times long before a system actually arrives as this next scenario probably will.

    1. I really wish the term plowable didn’t exist. It is one of my pet peeves because it holds different connotations for most. I think it is a way to cover ones butt. However, that being said, I do believe it is the network brass forcing mets to have to resort to new butt covering techniques.

  11. I am going with a blend between the models
    EURO seems to be showing maybe 2 to 5 inches of snow in northern mass and away from the coast.
    gfs shows 5 or more inches of snow west of i95
    so i am going to go with a blend
    like TK has pointed out gfs is a bit fast but I think the EURO is a little to slow so I am thinking its going to be a blend of the two right now. So I am thinking a low end moderate snowfall maybe in the terms of 4 to 8 inches across interior mass outside of i95 with 4 inches or less inside of i95. some isolated higher amounts as you go in areas of NH and VT.

  12. This will not be a plowable snowstorm for Boston in my opinion . Since Xmas eve I was hearing amounts even Harvey yes Harvey talking amounts . I know the mets have a ratings war out there but way to early in my humble opinion only .

    1. I’m going to be really upset if you tell me your grass is green JPD. Mine is brown. It needs complete replacing come spring although we are hoping to move by then so it will be someone else’s joy 🙂

      1. It’s Green and brown. It’s green where there is real grass and brown where the crab grass grew like weeds during the summer.

        😀

    1. It can be. But there was another time it did that on the timing of a front and keeping something more progressive, and it was RIGHT.

      Upgrades don’t necessarily make forecasting easier, do they… 😛

  15. Everything anyone needs to know is contained in the Weather Channel headlines:
    “Winter Storm Goliath to Bring Snow to Central States and New England; Blizzard Warnings in High Plains”

    (he-he)

  16. Just heard wbz 1030 radio say under 2 inches for Boston proper changing to rain during Tuesday morning washing away any accumulations, and also said snow accumulation likely west of 495 and north of pike. It was Elliot Abrams, it was some other met. 🙂

    1. I’m assuming you meant to say it WASN’T Elliot. If it isn’t a WBZ studio person it is whoever is on duty for their feed from AccuWeather in State College PA. There are many.

  18. I find it interesting that Blizzard Warnings are out for the Texas Panhandle for 12-18″ of snow, which could very well be Boston’s total for the entire season.

    1. El Nino, for one thing. And even in a non El Nino, when they have that, we’re often mild. Just the way the patterns work. And yes that could end up being Boston’s total, if we come in on the low side. However, I think a large storm will be Boston’s before Winter is over and it may account for at least half of their total.

  19. I have noticed that when Dave Epstein is on duty, WBZ radio uses the AccuWeather/State College feed. What exactly is Dave’s status with WBZ-TV anyway?

    He is a very good met IMHO as he doesn’t rely on hype like most TV mets do.

  20. Ho Hum de howdy ho hum.

    Beautiful day out! IMHO, it’s nicer than Christmas Eve day.

    re: Tuesday
    The GFS is the only model showing any kind of front end snow at all with
    up to 6 inches for Boston. CMC has an inch or 2 tops, if that. Euro, even less.
    The NAM is about in line with the CMC with an inch or 2. ALL models go to rain, it’s just a matter of when and how much front end frozen precip falls. I say the more the merrier, but with a Primary tracking through Wisconsin, chances are NOT good for
    much snow here. Northern NE, might just hold onto to enough cold long enough to come out with a decent accumulation, change to rain or not.

    Set up would favor the results of the CMC, NAM and/or Euro and NOT the GFS. Yet the GFS has been stubbornly consistent???????

    1. That would do nothing to lock in cold air anywhere but right at the ground, for a bit longer than if the low was not there.

  23. Necn has lowered accumulation map from this morning’s. They had 2-4 in the Boston providence corridor outto 128, and 3-5 within 128 and 495. Now they having coating to 2 inches Boston providence corridor, and 1-4 between 128 and 495, with just rain Plymouth to Providence southward and eastward.

        1. Coating to a MAX of 2 inches. In this particular case,
          that is a rather large spread, but that’s the way it is.
          Probably closer to the coating than the 2 inches. We shall see.

        2. Too high for NECN, I believe.

          The ratio will be 10:1 in the column because of warm air aloft coming in rapidly.

          Thus, .1 to .4 melted would have to fall as snow btwn 128 and 495. I just don’t think that’s likely.

          Maybe a little snow sleet mixture to begin, could coat the ground n and w of 128 ….. Surface temps struggle to 32 well, well inland.

    1. i hope not but it looks more likely unfortunately, excuse my language but it sucks, i was hoping there would be a chance for wachusett to open

      1. The advisory level snow part …. I do agree with the low level cold air struggle and possible inland icy conditions.

  26. I think this is all good humer regarding Tuesday . Need to be in Winthrop early Tuesday morning should I pop on the snow tires lol.

  27. The Taunton map is probably a little high. It looks like a slightly trimmed down version of the GFS, which remains cold again on the 18z run, with 4-8″ for most of our area. Looks like the snow will be falling at night, which will be a positive. But the ground is still warm, and I think even if the surface can remain cold the warm push at 700mb will mean more sleet than snow even during the frozen precip period.

    Pattern to me looks dry and a bit chilly to start the new year, with moderation thereafter, pretty much what TK has above.

  28. A coating to an inch or two coastline to 495. A few inches north and west of 495 with a chance to mix and eventually light rain before ending

  29. I don’t think the snow and sleet begins until 2-4am Tuesday, then between 7-8am a transition to just sleet or even freezing rain for a very short time. After 10-11am it’s all rain. Less than an inch at Logan, 1-2 inches in Boston, both of these areas will be washed away. North and west of 128 2-3 inches with very little left after changing to rain. West of 495 3-5 inches. 🙂 my 48 hr forecast. 🙂

      1. Ground was not frozen last year this time. I had no trouble pushing stakes in for outside decorations. More often than not, wesomt have trouble pushing them in this time of year. In March, however, it was so frozen I couldn’t get them out.

        2. I believe 9.7 degrees warmer on average, many more cold day interluded with warm days unlike this year thus far, only 8 weeks left of winter, then it’s talk about spring!!! 🙂

    1. For sure ….. Hopefully the slightly adjusting pattern will lower the severe threat starting in a few days. Another consequence of this strong El Niño.

  34. This current tornado appears rain wrapped and obviously in the dark. Hopefully anyone in its path is in an underground shelter.

  35. We are so fortunate to be in this part of the country. Yes we get tornadoes here but most of the time there weak and not strong tornadoes you see in the Plains and south.

      1. And yet both cause death and destruction. I’m happy to live in an area where they are not as common. God bless those who are tonight

  37. The snow picked up in the second half of that game.
    The best snow game I have seen was that first half of the Lions Eagles game in Philadelphia a few years ago I believe in December 2012. That snow came down so hard with snow covering the entire field of play.

    1. Miami Hurricanes looked lost in the snow at the end of that game. I am sure that they were happy to travel “north” to play in that game.

      I love to watch football games played in snow.

      Best snow game (for obvious sentimental reasons) was the Patriots-Raiders game to close Foxboro Stadium in 2002.

  38. CMC
    hour 66
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122612&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=69
    light snow comes in from the southwest

    HOUR 72
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122612&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=69
    It transfers over to Sleet/freezing rain (heavy precip)

    HOUR 78
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122612&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=69
    Still sleet/freezing rain west of i95 rain east of I95

    HOUR 84
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122612&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=69

    turns over to light rain for everyone in southern new england

    Now the GFS

    HOUR 60
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122618&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=69
    Looks similar to Canadian hour 66 above

    HOUR 66
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122618&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=69
    Most have moderate to heavy snow with the canadian it looks like it is coming in quicker

    HOUR 72
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122618&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=69

    Everyone is now with moderate to heavy rain when at this time the canadian was transfering over to sleet and freezing rain

    HOUR 78 looks like Hour 78 of the canadian.

    the only difference between these two is that the gfs has an earlier start time but with snow turning right over to rain with very little icy mix of sleet/freezing rain. When the canadian has a smaller period of snow but most of the precip across areas west of i95 has sleet/ice

    The nam looks just like the Canadian with the change.

    The only reason for the snowfall amounts from the gfs is based on is that there is a clean transition form snow to rain but the precip starts earlier.

    1. Looking more and more like mainly a rain event for Boston, with a very brief shot of front end snow/sleet for 1-2 hrs

      1. again i do not really pay attention to boston. I pay attention to the Merrimack valley which is much different than where you live charlie.

        1. yup!’ But I believe if I’m not mistaken 68% of Massachusetts lives inside 128 and i95, 50% of New England live inside 495. 🙂

    1. Congratulations!!! At the same time, 1 and done. That division is a dumpster fire. 🙂

      (What he should have said: “Congratulations and good luck to your team!”)

      1. You really are fricking unreal. Oh just like the Giants were one and done when they beat you. You are an ass.

        Sorry TK but I have not had much good to cheer about in life and then he comes on and says that.

        1. Lol it’s a game Hadi, grow a set geez Hadi 🙂

          (What he should have said: “I was just kidding around, but I realize that was a bit much and I apologize.”)

        1. I’m not doing anything matt, people are so sensitive, I didn’t say anything mean

          (What he should have said: “I apologize. My mistake.”)

  41. 0Z GFS about the same, with perhaps the slighest of back offs on snow right along the coast, but otherwise pretty much the same for about 8-12 runs now.

    NAM is much snowier this run than previous runs.

    CMC keeps frozen in longer than previous runs. Waiting on Snowmap, probably tomorrow for me. I am beat.

  43. Charlie you have no idea what people are going through in life so comments like that are unnecessary. Maybe people are sensitive bc they are fighting an illness that you have no idea about. So just back off.

    1. Saw that the other day. Pretty seriously sad to say the least.

      And with this next system, each runs show less for them. I wish at least
      they could get a dumping up there.

        1. Nice job Skins. They have been playing better over the last couple of months and will be trouble for those they face in the playoffs.

  49. Some thoughts …..

    Both GFS and EURO in the medium and long range have some snow opportunities. Neat inverted trof at 216 hrs on the GFS into coastal Maine. With the overall pattern shifting east, these would be projected snow opportunities I have some faith in, as our region should be more centered under the trof. We’ll see if the colder air and moisture can align.

    8 people lost their lives to that long track tornado last night in Texas. A storm chaser caught images of the tornado, even in the dark ….. just a dark ominous, large wedge tornado in the darkness of night, frightening !!!

    This event in about 36 to 48 hrs does make me thankful to be able to offer a prediction here on TK’s wonderful site and not present a forecast to the public with all the responsibility that comes with it. Wouldn’t want to have to forecast whether it’s inches of snow or a long duration ice event in this storm and have hundreds of folks ready to let you know if it goes the other way.

  50. Charlie… Looks like that new leaf you turned over dried up and crumbled. Enough with the comments and telling people to “grow a set”. That’s uncalled for and I’m not going to allow it here. After I update the blog I’m going back to remove all those comments. You’ve gone right back to the way you were before. Disappointing. Open your eyes and think before you hit send.

    1. Ok, before I DELETE them I EDITED them just to illustrate the approach you should have taken once you brought it to the level you promised not to bring it to again.

      I now do not have time to update the blog yet because of your antics. It’s 8:30 and I have to pick my mom up from church and take her to visit Dad’s grave. I can’t have her waiting for me in the damp/cool/wet air while I type on my laptop. So if you want to think of it this way, you delayed the update for everyone else. Nice job. If I had a corner to stick you in or a principle’s office to send you to I would. I have a feeling you were probably familiar with a place like that. And if you think what I just said was a little over the top, then how does the medicine taste? 😛

      Now when I return from errands, I’ll update the blog for everyone and delete the offending comments and probably the replies from others only for the sake of making the blog look clean should anyone go back and read it.

      1. My apologies for my comment as well. Just a difficult time for me and I should have been better with what I wrote. Hope things go well with your visit.

    2. They are totally and completely in bed with the GFS and enjoying it.
      Can’t be explained any other way. Also I think they were looking at the
      0Z NAM which increased snow amounts. 6Z NAM totally backed off.

      An inch or 2 tops, if even that for the immediate Boston area.

      Waiting on 12Z runs.

  52. Is there a timeframe for whatever hits Tuesday? TK if I read yesterday’s forecast correctly, it is an all day storm. Does that still hold?

    2. I believe so. The question to be answered still is precipitation type and how that changes for each location. I’m going to try to get that figured out today and put my forecast amounts by tomorrow morning’s update, which I will probably prepare later tonight…

      1. Hadi….nice run for the Skins. IIRC the Arizona Cardinals made the Superbowl several years back with a 9-7 record. Will be fun to watch. Hope you are doing better.

  55. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. Who said “Climate is what we expect … weather is what we get.”

    A. Will Rogers
    B. George Carlin
    C. Mark Twain
    D. Jimmy Tingle

    2. What happened on Christmas that hasn’t happened since 1977 and won’t happen again until 2034?

    A. A meteor shower
    B. A full moon
    C. An eclipse
    D. The winter solstice

    3. What is the most snow recorded in Boston on New Year’s Eve?

    A. 6.5” in 2008
    B. 8.0” in 2004
    C. 11” in 1942
    D. 14.5” in 1904

    Answers later today.

  56. Updating now. I’ll repost the quiz questions when I get the update finished. It is being done much later than I had planned.

Comments are closed.