Sunday Forecast

161 Comments

9:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)…
This portion of the forecast covers the final 5 days of 2015, and they will feature changing weather. Today, the rain/drizzle that was around overnight and in scattered form into the morning is ending, and the wavy front responsible is lifting a little to the north to allow the northern limits of a very warm air mass into the region. We won’t get nearly as warm as what was experienced on Christmas Eve, as we’re near the border of colder air just to the north and we’ll keep a fair amount of cloudiness. In addition, the gusty southerly wind that was available to transport the warmth in will not really be there either. As this front slips back to the south, it may generate another rain shower later today in some locations, but overnight and Monday we’ll finally feel a seasonably cold air mass arrive. In true New England fashion, we’ll run a storm system into this cold air Tuesday, resulting in a complex precipitation setup. Now, this won’t be as big a deal as many of our Winter storms can be around here, as it will be a fairly quick-moving system and we’ll have a warm ocean, warming upper levels, and warm ground temperatures combating any snow/sleet that does occur. Eventually the entire forecast area will end up as plain rain. But before that happens, there will be a good risk of some slick travel conditions with some accumulation, especially away from the coast and the further north you are. Also, since we have not seen these conditions in any form whatsoever for a long time, the “first-time-in-a-long-time impact” will be enhanced. Again, at this point, I’m not 100% sure of how this plays out, but will give it my best shot below in the forecast and then put expected snow amounts on the next update. Another weaker wave of low pressure will come along and deliver light rain late Wednesday and early Thursday, but this will move away and allow the final hours of 2015 on Thursday to be dry.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty drizzle and areas of light fog through midday. Isolated rain showers late. Highs from around 50 in southern NH to around 60 RI and southern MA. Wind light variable, becoming mostly S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 25-30 interior, 30-35 coast. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Lows 20s to lower 30s. Highs 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy with light rain AM. Variably cloudy PM. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)…
A pattern change brings seasonably cold to slightly above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather for the first several days of 2016. May have to watch an offshore storm around January 4 but early indications are that that activity will be too far away to have impact.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)…
A continuation of a seasonably chilly to slightly milder than normal pattern with again mainly dry weather as southern jet stream energy likely remains too far to the south for impact and northern jet stream energy remains fairly weak with no more than a couple very light precipitation events.

161 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. REPOST of Longshot’s quizzes…

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. Who said “Climate is what we expect … weather is what we get.”

    A. Will Rogers
    B. George Carlin
    C. Mark Twain
    D. Jimmy Tingle

    2. What happened on Christmas that hasn’t happened since 1977 and won’t happen again until 2034?

    A. A meteor shower
    B. A full moon
    C. An eclipse
    D. The winter solstice

    3. What is the most snow recorded in Boston on New Year’s Eve?

    A. 6.5” in 2008
    B. 8.0” in 2004
    C. 11” in 1942
    D. 14.5” in 1904

    Answers later today.

  7. Here is my issue with the NWS today. Again great group of guys there but I must opine.

    I wish they’d clean up their wording on both the point forecast and the zone forecasts. They are worded in a way that often will confuse the general reader. Not to insult the intelligence of the readers, but just that I feel they really are that poorly worded. The prime example I site today is the wording on the point forecast for Tuesday. “Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all rain after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times.” … So does that mean that the snow will be heavy at times and the sleet and rain will not? Or does it mean that the snow will be heavy at times even after it becomes all rain after 1pm? See what I mean? At least they seem to have fixed the auto-icon issue in which the accompanying icon is based on the strongest words in the forecast, in this case “heavy” and “snow”. Previously that icon would have then depicted “heavy snow” for Tuesday, when in fact during the day that is the least likely thing the point I clicked (Woburn area) would be seeing.

    An additional comment I have is their forecast that most of the accumulating snow (and they are calling for 1 to 3 inches in my area) will occur between midnight Monday night and 7AM Tuesday. I’m not seeing too much, other than the too-fast GFS and GEM, that would make me feel we’d be having accumulating snow in Boston’s northern suburbs, and pretty much most other areas too, shortly after midnight. There is also the issue of the ECMWF’s inability to see anything but snow when it has a forecast temperature of 32 or lower. This model virtually ALWAYS over-forecasts snow in this situation. I’m not sure if any of these models can even account for the fact that the SST’s just offshore from Boston to the Gulf of Maine are running an average of 8F ABOVE NORMAL.

    Additionally still, we’re likely to see a punch of dry air at mid levels fairly early to mid morning Tuesday which would immediately put an end to precipitation generation where you’d need for snow. This would likely mean snow would be brief, sleet a little longer, then lighter rain/drizzle would overtake most areas fairly quickly after that. The NWS did also mention this but did not seem to take it into account regarding their snow forecast. Not sure what the reasoning is there, but we’ll see how it plays out.

  8. Flooding continues in UK. Heavy rains all month, very mild temperatures, and lashing winds. It’s a disaster for many as mandatory evacuations are underway. One of our WHW members – Amy – is in London. She’ll be fine. I did warn her that the weather will be downright awful there. Nevertheless, I promised she would have a good time. England is a wonderful country, and the people’s sense of humor carry them through the fog, rain, wind, and grays:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35181139

    1. They certainly know how to make the best of the fact they live in an area that often sees very poor weather. 😉

      Seriously, let’s hope things ease up there soon and they get a break. That may happen as the pattern shifts here in North America for a while starting next week.

      1. I have never had the priviledge of visiting England. Mac lived there for a while…his sister longer. They know how to make the best of other bad situations according to Mac. He had cartilage surgery on a knee back in the early 70s. The doctor missed so they had to close it up and wait a couple of weeks to reopen. They put him in the women’s ward the nurses all took him home for meals and to meet their daughters. 🙂

    1. That’s a bit better (but still too high IMO). I’m not sure why it was so stuck in the cold/snow mode with this setup. It’s even hard to get it that way when the SST’s are NORMAL, forget 5-10 degrees ABOVE.

      1. The other models just seem more realistic.
        C0uld there be a surprise? I suppose so, it is New England afterall.

        But as you said, it would be timing. We would need the moisture in here sooner.

        Even with this, if we could pick up and inch or 2, at least we
        get started with the season total. It would be a shame to start
        January with ZERO. 👿

        1. There is a good possibility at a minor accumulation especially away from the immediate shore. But the longer we go beyond midnight with anything less than steady and nearly moderate precipitation intensity lessens that chance.

          I have not posted amounts yet, obviously, but based on my current thoughts I would be surprised if Logan measured anything at all. They may indeed reach January with zero measurable. And then with the pattern turning a little colder but largely dry, their all time record may be challenged, if this system does not deliver at least 0.1 inch there. You’d come down to needing a glorified snow shower or ocean effect band at the last minute.

  11. Hadi – I was cheering on your Skins last night and was happy about the win.

    Happy to hear that the weather shouldn’t impact our ride to Providence on Tuesday night.

  12. Thanks TK. The 12z GFS looks suspicious in the 6-8 day time frame. A northern stream system comes diving down at us. Doesn’t really do anything too interesting as shown, but is there a chance that thing could cause some mischief, a redevelopment or phasing scenario?

    1. I think that may be a good example of that lack of phasing we’ll see for a while. It may come close, but probably too late each if not every time into mid January.

  13. Hit the warm sector here at the Sagamore Bridge. Sitting in the Market Basket cafe for lunch before continuing on Cape. Windy from the WSW.

    1. It’s around peak. Weakening will be slower than most have indicated, but the weakening trend will begin by early to mid January. And even that is not a lock that we suddenly return to last Winter’s pattern. Likely not happening. The atmosphere will respond accordingly to weakening of El Nino, but also has to respond to the phases the other indices are in. Watch MJO closely. It’s wavering around phase 6 and forecast to head into phase 7. That would bring us to a cooler but mostly dry pattern with the El Nino at this magnitude or slightly weaker. If MJO manages to make phase 8 and/or 1, then we’ll have better snow chances. I don’t expect this until February.

  15. Hadi, Mr. Cousins has been performing quite well. I too was routing for the Skins last night. He has been impressive. Hope you’re doing well.

      1. coating is barely higher than zero

        I’m trying to recall whether they forecast zero. To me that would mean it isn’t going to snow. Just a curious thought

  17. Long segment on El Nino on the CBS Morning Show today and Eric Fisher was one of the featured speakers. There were 2 comments of interest and 1 comment that should have been made.

    1) 3rd strongest El Nino since 1950.
    2) Eric said that we could have the warmest December and the coldest February … 1st time that has happened in over 140 years.
    3) In line with the 2nd comment above, there was no serious discussion on how long El Nino would last this winter. This should have been addressed.

    It was a good segment overall.

  21. Pats blow chunks today. They better figure it out in the 2nd half.
    They’re making Fitzpatrick look like a hall of famer and ditto their running backs.
    PATHETIC performance so far. POOOTHETIC.

    1. If they have any aspirations at all to win another Super bowl, they best learn
      how to play some football. Look, I know there are many injuries, but geez
      gimmie a break with the effort here. Err I mean lack of effort!!!!

      1. They don’t make it easy on themselves sitting both Amendola and Edelman out. They are looking at the long term prize. This game is far more meaning to the JETS than it is for the PATS. Besides. The JETS always give NE a game and it’s quite early. One score is an easy feat for the Patriots to overcome. Let’s see what happens in the second half after adjustments are made.

  22. If you go with the EURO, virtually no Snow for Boston with this upcoming system.
    model divergence. nothing better.

  23. Not sure if folks remembered last jets game as jets dominated the entire game . Pats ended it with a great win and jets took it hard. I took the jets today in my pool .

  24. I thought the pats would be more motivated today to beat the jets just to keep them out of the playoffs. The most dangerous teams to play in the playoffs are division opponents, especially given how much trouble the jets give them. Hopefully the jets aren’t the team that ends the pats season in the playoffs…

  25. I think the Pats really are trying to win today, but the group they have now is just short on talent. Jets are a far better team. Will be a one and done for us unless we get the receivers and safeties back healthy, as it stands we may already have too many season ending injuries to compete for a title. Tough to watch, this was such a great team to start the season.

      1. It sounded as if the ref said do you want to kick. Not do you want to kick or receive. It seems his question confused them. I really want to hear pats response

          1. I thought slater said we will kick . Patriots defer all the time if he did say that I’m sure it was out of mistake but if that’s what happened he still said it.

              1. Absolutely for certain! Every stinken time. You can’t give your opponent the slightest chance of scoring that winning touch down.
                HAVE HAVE HAVE to take the BALL! HAVE TO!!!!!!!_()*#$*()#@$)(&!)*(@#$&*!@#&$*(!&@#*$&*!($@#&(!*&@#$*&#*&!(

  29. Hard to hear but sounds like ref made a statement….You want to kick. No choice. No question. I think they clearly were confused and it started with ref

    1. No, Slater was a complete ass and didn’t know what the bleep he was doing.
      This one will go down in History. How does one F-up a Freaking Coin Toss????

      GIVE ME A BREAK!()@#&*(!()@#&*(&!@#*&!*(@^#&^!@&*$%!^*#%$*(!#&($*@(#^$^(@&*#^$*@&#^$*@&^#$&*^@&*#$^*&@^#&$^@*#$^&@^#&$^&*@#$^*&@^#$^*@&*#^$&@^&*#$^&@*^#$&*^@&*#$^&*@^#$&

  30. Just another chapter in the NFL vs. the Pats I guess. 😉

    Oh well. On to Miami. 😛

    On a weather note, I see the NWS is back with their 3 accumulation maps: Minimum, most likely, and maximum. I don’t like it. I still think it’s a terrible idea and causes more confusion than anything. I’ve already seen people posting and reiterating the “maximum” map as the official forecast. So it begins again…

    1. I don’t believe that for a second. Bill is way too smart for that.
      He’s covering and protecting his players.

      1. From the Go\Boston Globe:

        That said, there’s no excuse for the Patriots not taking the ball to start overtime. They won the coin toss, but surprisingly elected to kickoff instead of receive. The Jets scored the game-winning touchdown four plays later, and Brady never got to touch the ball in overtime. We’ll hopefully find out if the decision to kick off was made by Bill Belichick or special teams captain Matthew Slater.

        1. I don’t care. NO WAY Bill orders that. He’s protecting Slater. Has to be that way. No other way. None whatsoever!

          1. It is possible. And I still didn’t hear any pats say they want to kick until after ref stated…not asked….you want to kick. Bill will protect his guys. Either way….it is a game and it was exciting

  34. Pats’ loss is a disappointment. But the really sad sports news today is the passing of Dave Henderson at the age of 57. Henderson’s homerun ranks as one of the greatest of all time. I’d say Carbo 1, Henderson 2. Down to 2 strikes, needing a homerun just to tie on the road in the bottom of the ninth, he delivered an awesome shot to left. He was such a jolly guy. Infectious smile. Defined the grit of the 1986 Red Sox. Yes, they lost to the Mets, but they gave us a great season, in part because of Hendu.

  36. I still think this is bull crap. If it is so, I have lost ALL respect for Coach Bill.
    ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

    By WEEI
    It turns out the Patriots actually did want to kick off to the Jets to begin overtime.

    After the Jets’ 26-20, OT win over the Patriots, both head coach Bill Belichick and special teams captain Matthew Slater explained that their intention was to begin overtime by kicking the ball to the Jets, despite winning the coin toss.

    2. If BB wanted to kick, I will disagree with that decision but I would never lose respect for the guy’s accomplishments. Not because of one play – never. To me that was just a bad call. It’s not going to cost them anything in the long run. They’ll win next week and be fine going into the post season. Today just gives Jets fans a reason to feel even better about their chances. That’s life in the GAME.

      1. True, but it’s a head-scratcher. BB’s a great coach, but he’s not infallible. None of us are. This is a dumb move, with no justification.

      2. Tk there are so many folks in New E gland that have just jumped in the bandwagon in the last 15yrs, or honestly don’t understand the gam it really is Hillarious. You will always have the casual fan that has the what if’s especially when it doesn’t happen. I laugh 🙂

      3. I do believe JPD may be correct. I said that also before the interview. Bill covers for his guys. I listened to it over and over and didn’t hear slater say anything before refs statement.

        Either way there is nothing for Bill to gain by throwing his players u see the bus and everything to gain by standing beside them. Anyone who knows pats knows that is how he operates. So we do not know…it is that simple. And it doesn’t matter

    4. Personally think it was an OK call. In old OT rules, sure …. a terrible call, but under the new rules, you get a possession as long as the other team doesn’t score a touchdown. BB had every right to think his D could prevent a touchdown, especially if this team has capabilities of winning a super bowl.

        1. Totally wrong and I still don’t think Bill ordered it.
          I think Slater had a momentary brain fart and
          called it like it were the beginning of the game. My strong
          feeling is that Bill is simply protecting the player
          from ridicule. If I am wrong, so be it.

          I would NEVER ever ever agree with that decision IF he did, indeed, make it.

  37. Turns out that was an EF 4 wedge tornado last night, death toll now at 11. Seen some videos of awful damage.

    SW Arkansas currently with 4 tornado warnings.

  38. If I was a head coach I’d do the same!! It’s not like education or how smart you are, lol the defense was smothering, again I’d do the same, you can always be a 2nd guesser, if this or if that, or why this or why that, it’s not baseball where it’s straight forward, welcome to the game of football and momentum lol 🙂 onto Miami New England

    1. There is no sport that is straight forward and with all due respect, you are not head coach. No one knows for sure and as I said….it doesn’t matter.

    2. IMO you take the ball in OT. Trust your offense to get the job done, or based on current rules at least put up 3 and make the other team have to score. Why give them the ball and a chance to make one big play and end it?

      It’s one thing to defer to start the game, but OT? No way.

      1. They deferred in Denver but there was a reason. This was not Denver. Either way…no one knows for sure and I seriously doubt ever will. There was no question slater was confused. That is a given. Bill will always protect his players. It is what I most admire about him.

    1. I don’t think you’ll see much in the way of accumulation down there where you are. Maybe a coating at the start if it’s early enough.

  40. It’s so funny reading the above posts . Did anybody watch the 5th quarter again . Bill said he took the gamble to kick as he thought it gave his team a better shot . There all backing him . Poor call yup it sure was . There was no confusion it was clear as day slater said kick . Next up Miami which will be tough as all games in Miami seem to be.

    1. Why is it funny. I watched the fifth quarter. Because others think he may not be telling the truth doesn’t make it funny. Do you know his history?

      1. Because bill made a bad call and admitted to it he is lying . I’m done bringing it up get over it folks.

    2. I was going to ask the same thing. Funny how? Because people have opinions on it? Yes, Bill took the gamble and it backfired. It was the wrong call. But say it works, they stop the Jets, then go win the game, then he looks like a hero. We know it could have gone that way. What I’m saying is that I would not have given them the chance to do what they did, if I were in that position and had the choice to make.

    1. Hahahahaha. Of course you are the only one who is right. That was a given from the start. And I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to scare you away from a discussion.

  42. The one issue I have with BB is that he overthinks things. He should never take the ball out of Brady’s hands if at all possible.

  43. even if its not a good snow storm next week it will at least be cold enough for snow making, which means i can go skiing next weekend about darn time

  44. Just morbidly curious, what happens should the Pats lose to Miami? Would they have to play the following week at home instead of getting that week off? And would they have to play three playoff games instead of two to get to the SB?

    1. This is exactly what I’m talking about, this is no offense to Philip 🙂

      I love this as a weather blog, I thank you tk for giving me this. Thank you!! 🙂

    2. Philip pats already won there division and a first round by. Next win gets them home field through out playoffs .

      1. John, I don’t believe they have home field throughout the playoffs clinched yet…they MUST win in Miami for that or help elsewhere.

          1. Yes you did John. I misread your response but no one answered my question as what happens with a loss to Miami. I believe Brady has a losing record down there.

            1. Pats don’t usually play well in Miami for whatever reason Philip. They loose homefield Philip if they loose next week . Jets control there fate with a win in buffalo .

  45. pats won the division. locked first round bye, So the pats are 1st or second seed what ever happens. much needed week off. home field can be taken if the pats win next week

  46. IMO the OT rules should be changed and guarantee that both teams have at least one possession regardless of who scores what. If the team that has possession first and scores (TD or FG) then the other team has an opportunity for the ball. If the game is still tied then there would be sudden death and whoever scores (TD, FG, Safety) thereafter wins the game.

    For all practical purposes the game was still played by the old sudden death OT rules…the final result speaks for itself.

  47. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1.Who said “Climate is what we expect … weather is what we get.”
    A. Will Rogers
    B. George Carlin
    C. Mark Twain
    D. Jimmy Tingle

    The answer is C, Mark Twain.

    2. What happened on Christmas that hasn’t happened since 1977 and won’t happen again until 2034?

    A. A meteor shower
    B. A full moon
    C. An eclipse
    D. The winter solstice

    The answer is B, a full moon.

    3. What is the most snow recorded in Boston on New Year’s Eve?

    A. 6.5” in 2008
    B. 8.0” in 2004
    C. 11” in 1942
    D. 14.5” in 1904

    The answer is A, 6.5″ in 2008. (I am not so sure this is correct though.)

  48. I had planned to get dinner in the oven and then sit outside. And Mother Nature foiled my plan. It started to rain just as I opened the door. Shoulda checked the radar huh?

    1. Not so much trending warmer as models seeing things as they really are. All along I’ve been explaining why the computers have likely been in error on this. We’re looking at a poorly-producing system mainly sleet to rain that gets shut off early due to a dry air intrusion and is so immersed existing warm surroundings that “significant snowfall” is a laughable term to use for most of the region, especially Boston and points south. There may be a quick slug of moderate snow to the north and mainly inland depending on start time.

    1. One is run at 4km resolution, and the other is 12km. They always have at least slightly different output, especially regarding precip. In theory the 4km should be more accurate but I often find it over-forecasts precipitation.

  52. Winter Weather Advisory goes up for MA at 8 PM tonight.

    Actually I am more concerned about sleet and icy road conditions than anything else. I have to drive a little bit tomorrow and I, like most others, do not like to drive on slick roads.

  54. BB gambled and outsmarted himself, maybe one of the few times in a storied career that has happened. Pats need to rest some OLine guys bc they are in trouble if they can’t get anyone healthy. You could see how much pressure the jets were getting in the 2nd half. And come playoff time health is key to a successful run.

  57. Euro is showing 850 MB temperatures well below freezing until some time after
    10AM.

    Does anyone know where one can obtain a 700MB map with temperatures?

    The only one I can seem to find is the HRRR which only goes out 24 hours.
    Here it is at 8Z or 3AM.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122808/full/temp_700_f24.png

    On can see the freezing line advancing from the South.

    Here is the HRRR snow map as of 8Z

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122808/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

    With that 700mb freezing line advancing, not a whole lot of time for snow opportunity.

  58. NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

    Link:

    http://www.weather.gov/box/

    Headlines:

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
    EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY…

    * LOCATIONS…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…AS WELL AS
    NORTHERN CONNECTICUT…AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT FOR
    BRISTOL AND NEWPORT COUNTIES AND BLOCK ISLAND.

    * HAZARD TYPES…SNOW…SLEET…AND FREEZING RAIN.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…ALONG
    WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

  60. I’m up north (east central Vermont). Rain all day yesterday. A truly dismal day. Even the Vermonters were complaining. Rain changed to snow in almost all locations overnight. Left a pretty dusting of snow and ice. Byways are slippery. Several inches of snow in the upper elevations, including the White Mountains. More coming tomorrow.

Comments are closed.