7:16AM
DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)…
Cold air settles in today with fair and windy weather as high pressure builds to the north of New England. Low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes and redevelops near the New England South Coast Tuesday bringing a period of precipitation, starting as a snow to sleet transition then eventually to rain before ending. The longest period of frozen precipitation will be north of Boston where some minor accumulation is likely, but overall warm air from the ocean and above normal ocean water temperatures will be too influential and the rain wins out. In addition, dry air working in from the west will shut off the making of precipitation by later Tuesday afternoon and only low level moisture will be available for additional rain/drizzle, where it will be far too mild for any frozen precipitation. A brief break early Wednesday before a second wave of low pressure brings brief rain late Wednesday. A drier and cooler trend arrives for the final day of 2015 and the opening day of 2016.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow/sleet developing before dawn, rapidly mixing with rain near the coast, and probably starting as a mix and going right to rain closer to the South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows in the 20s southern NH and northern MA and 30s elsewhere. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet north and west, sleet/rain south, transitioning to all rain then tapering off later to light rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Snow/sleet of a trace to 1 inch mainly Boston area west and north with around 2 inches possible Merrimack Valley into southern NH away from the coast. Highs 35-43. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)…
A pattern change brings seasonably cold to slightly above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather during the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)…
A continuation of a seasonably chilly to slightly milder than normal pattern with again mainly dry weather as southern jet stream energy likely remains too far to the south for impact and northern jet stream energy remains fairly weak with no more than a couple very light precipitation events.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK. Any chance you saw my post on the previous blog. Thanks again.
I’m up north (east central Vermont). Rain all day yesterday. A truly dismal day. Even the Vermonters were complaining. Rain changed to snow in almost all locations overnight. Left a pretty dusting of snow and ice. Byways are slippery. Several inches of snow in the upper elevations, including the White Mountains. More coming tomorrow.
Good morning again and thank you TK for the Monday update.
I heard all sorts of crap this AM re: Bill’s decision
It sure sounds like he ordered the kick off. YIKES
That is insane.
My wife and I have a conspiracy theory on the game.
The game SMELLED from the start. It was a BAG job.
Tell me WHY with 1:57 left in the first half, Bill decides to run out the clock, literally with run play after run play? Normally he goes for the Jugular.
Tell me WHY Bill kept wasting time outs near the end of regulation?
Then took a knee without a whimper.
Some things just didn’t add up. Sorry.
Ok, I’m done. We’re onto Miami.
The bottom line is that BB tends to quickly lose confidence in his players. If you remember he went for it on 4th down in Indy a few years ago because of no confidence in the defense.
And not to mention the first SB loss to the Giants when he had no confidence in Gostkowski during his rookie year.
They went for it on 4th down but Brady could not connect needing 13 yards.
IMO BB felt he had a better chance on defense as Brady was getting pounded in the 4th quarter. The OLine is a huge issue for them right now.
I understand all of the above, but it still makes no sense to me.
I am a logical person to a fault. I am much like the Star Trek character Spock.
I took a Logic course in College and got an A+ without even trying. It just came so easily to me.
That decision continues to baffle me. I’m sorry. Yes, I know I said I was done.
I LIED. Sorry. I can’t help it. I went ballistic when that decision came done.
BALLISTIC*!@*#&*(&!@*(#&*!&@*#&!*&@#*&!*(@&#*!&@#*&*&!@
His defense was pretty porous yesterday. Yes, they made 2 stops in a row.
Perhaps that lulled Bill into a false sense of confidence. I KNEW beyond a shadow of a doubt that the JETS would SCORE once we kicked to them.
INSANE to give them a chance. Why not try to score first since we had
the opportunity???????
MAKES ZERO SENSE! NONE whatsoever!! It CANNOT be rationalized.
I don’t care how or who tries to spin it. I ain’t buying it.
It almost looks like Bill was responding to some sort of threat on his family.
(If any of you out there thinks that the MOB does not exist anymore, I have
some swamp land in Florida to sell you. The Mob is alive and thriving quite well. IF you think they don’t have their hands in the NFL, think again!)
I think BB was keeping and eye on the Pittsburgh game and would prefer to face the Jets in the playoffs.
A lot colder out there today . Look for minimal effects from tomorrow’s am snow .
I’m not so sure about that.
I just looked at the 12Z NAM.
It has .6 to .8 qpf while 850mb temperatures are below freezing.
Yet, the snow map has ZILCH until the NH border.
I don’t have access to the NAM 700MB temperatures, but they
must go above freezing fairly quickly.
That tells me that we would have quite a bit of Sleet for several hours before
the transition. Even if the ratio were 1:1 that’s about 1/2 inch of sleet and a touch of snow before that.
Gil Simmons was saying this morning this is more sleet and very little snow before everyone goes to rain.
Very little snow more sleet/ mix. Should be all Rain in Boston by 10am and if this starts later even less mix.
I’m more concerned with the ice and sleet and think if they materialize and timing is am rush, there could be a definite affect
This is last night’s 0Z FIM model snow map:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2015122800/t3/totsn_sfc_f042.png
This is a change for the FIM as it has consistently shown very little UNTIL
this run.
We shall see what the 12Z run shows.
The HRRR model seems to be very slow this morning.
The last run available is 9Z which is now quite old.
Pissing me off.
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 51m51 minutes ago
Classic freezing rain setup for Tuesday morning. A bit of sleet/snow accumulation early then ice! #FirstAlertCT
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A.J. Burnett @WxManAJB · 12h12 hours ago
.@ryanhanrahan Any wonder why so much warm air aloft with Tue’s system? Air from the Caribbean in warm conveyor!
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 15h15 hours ago
Plenty of low level cold with this storm but way too much warmth above our heads for snow. Warm pattern!
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 15h15 hours ago
Latest computer guidance doesn’t show much snow falling in CT Tuesday. Looks like sleet and freezing rain will be the issue. #FirstAlertCT
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 15h15 hours ago
Updated blog post about Tuesday’s wintry mix. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2015/12/27/wintry-mess-for-tuesday-morning/ … #FirstAlertCT
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 16h16 hours ago
Not much snow Tuesday morning with mid levels temps >32F but plenty of sleet and some freezing rain.
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 17h17 hours ago
“Warm ground” will have 0 impact this time of year. Untreated surfaces will be slick Tue AM. Not much snow but a messy mix.
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · 18h18 hours ago
Winter weather advisory for all of CT except the immediate shore. @KaitMcGrathNBC will have more at 6!
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NWS Fort Worth @NWSFortWorth · 22h22 hours ago
At least EF3 damage found in Rowlett. @RowlettFire @RowlettTexas #dfwwx #holidaystorm #RowlettTornado
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Darren Sweeney NBCCT @DarrenSweeney · Dec 27
The 2-4″ north is mostly for the hills,the lower end is likely, the higher end would be an exception. #FirstAlertCT
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Greg Carbin @GCarbin · Dec 26
The weather map is sick! #severe #tornado #blizzard #flood. Working ’em all @NWSSPC tdy.
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Eweather @Eweather13 · Dec 25
Awesome shot-Branford Point this Christmas am! Credit: Willing Ryan @StormHour @yourtake @ryanhanrahan @JimCantore
Sunset Weather and USA Sunrise
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Eweather @Eweather13 · Dec 25 Higganum, CT
Merry Christmas #sunrise as fog blankets the #CTRiver @StephanieAbrams @gilsimmons @GarettArgianas @StormHour
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NY Metro Weather @nymetrowx · Dec 24
NY Metro Weather Retweeted NY Metro Weather
Let’s take a moment to appreciate long range forecasting. Models had today’s warmth pegged 10 days in advance:
NY Metro Weather added,
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NY Metro Weather @nymetrowx Warm surge near Christmas may be more impressive than last weekend. Potential for temps 24+ F above normal:
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · Dec 24
Ryan Hanrahan Retweeted Hartford Courant
This is a bizarre story.
Ryan Hanrahan added,
Hartford Courant @hartfordcourant .@colinmcenroe: How does a hit piece on a Las Vegas judge show up in New Britain? http://cour.at/1TjpOkJ
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David Sones @DavidSones · Dec 24
Air conditioning in full effect on Xmas eve! Merry Xmas to the best weather guys on TV. @bobmaxon @ryanhanrahan
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · Dec 24
This morning’s GYX sounding had an unreal +9C at 700mb. Holy moly!
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Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan · Dec 24
Willimantic made it to 70 today! 69 so far at BDL. #firstalertct
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Having trouble posting a map meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan posted on his twitter page
but NCAR WRF Ensembles bullish on freezing rain potential 0.5 in Litchfield Hills which is north of me and hopefully stays that way. Worcester area those ensembles look to be showing the same amount.
I have never heard of NCAR or WRF and don’t know if there reliable.
Sorry posted all his extra tweets by mistake. There are some having to do with the Tuesday system.
JJ, you broke Word Press with all of that, but thank you.
The WRF is not bad.
In looking at the guidance, Ct doesn’t have much chance at snow for sure.
Up here, we could experience some before it changes to sleet.
Along the coast, NO worries about freezing rain. Once sleet has finished it will
go to straight rain here, no doubt about that.
Just a question of how much snow/sleet falls. It looks to be more sleet than snow, that seems likely. Trying to get an accurate handle on that.
For your viewing pleasure, I have stumbled across some really nice looking
HRRR maps from Weatherbell. They only go out 15 hours and it does NOT include
all of the HRRR maps, but these maps are excellently presented. Have a look:
Link to site:
http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2015122813/hrrr.php
Sample MAP: 850MB temps at 11PM tonight:
http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2015122813/boston/hrrr_t850_boston_16.png
Here is a 12Z NAM map for 7AM tomorrow. SLEET appears to be the word of the day.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015122812/namconus_ref_frzn_us_8.png
Thanks TK !
I wonder tomorrow, as the fairly weak secondary low develops and passes east of our area, if it will briefly back the surface winds in eastern Mass to the north. If there’s cold enough air remaining in southern NH and ME, perhaps surface temps may fall back towards 32F during the afternoon. Particularly for the Merrimack Valley, the north shore and maybe even the NW suburbs of Boston …..
Always thinking there Tom.
I suppose it is possible, but only if the cold air isn’t already
scoured out prior to the Coastal circulation taking over.
If there is nothing up there to pull down, doesn’t make a difference, does it?
We shall see.
Ocean effect cloudiness covering the Cape.
I see on radar, returns to the west of where we area, but not seeing any flurries or sprinkles.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20151228&endTime=-1&duration=12
Regarding the game….could be it was BBs decision. Could be it was a misunderstanding. No one can question slater was confused. Could be conspiracy. Could be other factors. The only thing we know for sure is that we don’t know. On to Miami!
I’M Jaded and I suspect the worse. That game SMELLED from the get go.
It smelled so badly that my wife could see what was going on. I had to listen to her the whole game complaining about how the Patriots weren’t trying.
Now to be sure, some of that was due to the massive number of injuries they had, BUT a fair amount was due to a very clear lack of effort. Why? You be the judge.
Did you notice the Pat’s defense lining up with a hug hole for the Jet’s running
backs to easily pass through? WHY? Looked very odd to me.
You think maybe some of the DBs were a tad tardy on their converage?
WHY? You be the judge. Something was NOT right.
Call it injuries if you like, but I saw something else going on.
Nuff said. Onto Miami.
Slater was questioning the kicking side he said in an interview .
Yes I know what he said. The whole situation still SMELLS very badly to me. I CANNOT for the life of me comprehend this one.
Here is another cool feature from those WeatherBell Maps:
They have nice loops. Here is one for radar reflectivity
http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2015122813/east/hrrr_ref_east_loop.php
Very cool !!!!!
I have to drive my son to the airport at about 6AM tomorrow morning.
That ought to be fun!!! I am quite sure his flight to San Francisco will get off
pretty much on time with only a minor delay at worse. At least I shouldn’t hit
too much traffic at that hour or at least I hope. Then it will be the Ted Williams
tunnel to the office.
Hopefully, the roads will be OK and it will be just rain by the time you have to head into the airport.
My son flew out of Logan this morning after an amazing week long visit!
No matter the length of his stay, it always go by too quickly!
Thank you. I think we will be fine, even if there is Snow/sleet
flying.
Hadi… Saw the message. I’m mobile at work so will take care of it this afternoon.
Thanks TK.
12Z GFS snow map for tomorrow. Still INSISTS on dropping an accumulation
on Boston. We shall see.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048
All other models say NOPE. Perhaps some sleet then rain.
Tropical Tidbits 12Z GFS snow map:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122812/gfs_asnow_neus_9.png
12Z RGEM snowmap
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015122812/rgem_asnow_neus_15.png
This is probably more realistic, but we shall see.
It is.
Hi all!
Tricky set up as winter is trying to move in while the pattern has and still is warm. Because of this, I would refrain from using any model derived snowfall map. Focus on how the thermal profile changes with time(forecast soundings), and wind direction especially for coastal areas. The NAM has sleet falling in boston at 12z tomorrow, but a 10+ knot torch off the ocean would likely melt the entire ice crystal.
Watch out for enhanced precipitation to the west of the coastal front, which may be the Boston area for a short time prior to changeover, which should be quick and clean.
Agree on all points!
Makes perfect sense, no matter what we are actually wishing.
Look at the NAM Instant Weather Maps snow map.
Here it is:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042
Pretty dramatic, no?
Think the NAM has a handle on this? There will probably still be some sleet in the area tomorrow AM.
Just returned to Boston. Much warmer here than up north, needless to say. I think that at the surface there’s a degree differential of at least 10 degrees between here and 90+ miles north. Areas north won’t be as impacted by warm easterly wind either. Hence, some significant accumulation up there tomorrow. I’d say zero to 1 inch in Boston, and all will wash away. And, > 3 inch accumulation in Massachusetts will likely occur in the northern border area away from the coast and west of Worcester. West of Boston to Worcester about 1-3 inches. Nothing at all south coast, CC, and the Islands.
One football note. I agree with JP Dave. BB is great, but he makes mistakes like everyone else. If you win a coin toss in OT you always want the ball. Period. The reason is that by kicking off there’s a distinct possibility of never getting a chance to have the football. Sometimes BB’s outside the box thinking is off. How about the onside kick against Denver. Bizarre move, a real head-scratcher, just like yesterday’s coin toss decision. And no, there’s no way BB wants to play the Jets. The Jets have had success against the Pats, both in the regular and post-season. They have the toughest defensive front, excellent cornerbacks, always play well against the Patriots. I’d fear the Jets more than Pittsburgh or any other AFC team.
channel 7 has my area under 3-6
Seems high, doesn’t it. Hope it happens. Mt. Wachusett should get something
like 4 or 5 inches anyway. Perhaps they will keep most of it and get the season started.
Next chance of wintry weather after this not until around the 12th 13th of January according to latest run of GFS.
1st Enjoy the 45-50 degree weather on Wednesday and Thursday
Saw a few flurries just now in Plymouth.
Thank you tk
Looking like very little accumulation Boston south and east (under 1 inch of snow). Boston west (1-3 inches). Tomorrow by this time will all be a distant memory and be in the drain and reservoirs.
As for the Patriots game, I’ll leave that for my 5 sports blogs. I’m not going to talk about the gfs on my sports blogs, and I won’t talk Patriots football on a weather blog. Hope everyone has a good day!!
And the funny thing is the T and the news stations are making it sound like a blizzard is coming .
Isn’t that the truth!!!
Lol!!! It’s boston
I am quite sure other cities sensationalize the weather also.
Not like here, but that’s just my opinion
You are so right, Sue! Chicago’s local media did much the same for their first snow event of the season!
12Z Euro 850mb temperatures for 12Z tomorrow or 7AM
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2015122812®ion=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=024
That would support Snow and/or sleet depending on the temperature at levels
above 850mb, like 700 mb or anything in between.
Future radar posted on Ed Vallee twitter page who is an energy meteorologist around 5am showing snow Boston north and west mix south shore and all of CT.
He was the first meteorologist I saw on twitter mention about the warm 700 mb back on Christmas Eve.
Precip appears to be a bit ahead of schedule, may start around midnight. Surface cold will be tough to dislodge, but 700mb warmth is going to present a major challenge for snowfall. Likely at least 6-8 hours of frozen precip for many away from the east coast and north of the CT/RI border, but much of it will be sleet. Not an easy forecast though. I’ll be interested in the 0z soundings tonight, those will give us a good idea of what’s going on above us, and can be compared against model forecasts to see whether we’re running any warmer or colder than forecast.
12Z Euro still had surface temp in Boston sub freezing at 7AM. I think
even Boston may see an extended period of frozen.
16Z HRRR radar loop
http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2015122816/boston/hrrr_ref_boston_loop.php
Notice the bulge of the freezing line heading up the coast and engulfing
most of Boston and this is by 2AM. HRRR certainly does not agree
with the Euro.
WxWatcher,
related to what you posted.
Look at this 14X HRRR snow map (based on 10:1 of course)
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png
700MB temps pass go above freezing for Boston right aroun 7AM
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/temp_t3700_f22.png
BUT 850mb temps remain below freezing at that hour, so the SLEET show would
start around 7AM (IF this model is correct)
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/temp_t3850_f22.png
85MB temps still below freezing at 9AM
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/temp_t3850_f24.png
That’s 4-6 inches down to Boston. Now I have no idea IF that takes into account SLEET? I think not. Therefore, even IF this model were correct, we’d have to knock
down that 4-6 to at least 2-4 if not 1-3.
According to the HRRR, the cold air Especially 850MB down to the surface
will be difficult to erode, thus supporting WxWatchers post above.
16Z HRRR accelerates the Norhward movement of the 700 MB
freezing line.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122816/t3/temp_t3700_f20.png
but 850mb freezing line holds its ground as of 7AM
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122816/t3/temp_t3850_f21.png
Morning commute tomorrow is not going to be pleasant.
Shhhhh
Models show Boston going above 32 degrees at about 7am
maybe low level but precip when heavy enough could keep it as maybe sleet/graple
Maybe before . I think the changeover in Boston will happen on the quicker side .
Appears it should be changing over to rain between 7-9am Boston southward. 9-11am just north and west of Boston. Just saw wbz and they have basically most of mass in the coating to 2 inch amount.
https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/
I am thinking a lot of sleet will be falling in the terms of an inch maybe even some up to 2 inches in the interior .
Also tuesday afternoon/ tuesday night we could see some freezing rain/ freezing drizzle
Where do you live Matt? Are you way up north of rt 2?
I live just southwest of lowell in a town called Billerica Right on 495 but we usually have similar amounts to areas just to our north compared to those to the south. Southern Part of the Merrimack valley.
so technically I am north of rt 2 but just inside of 495
I’m not sure Logan even sees an inch of frozen anything. I think when precip starts there the temperature is 31-32 degrees, and rising through the 30’s very early Friday morning even before sunrise.
Friday morning?
Here is the 18Z HRRR 1 hour snowmap between 8Z and 9Z. (3-4 AM)
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122818/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
“Feels” about right.
I can’t see this as a snowmaker for coastal areas. Even inland Massachusetts/CT/RI are going to have a tough time getting a couple of inches out of this, EXCEPT north of the Mass. border. Three problems: 1. Set-up is conducive to an east wind, which means mild given the ocean’s relatively high temperature; 2. Even if Boston were to stay below freezing at the surface until 9am, after perhaps a brief burst of snow it won’t be snowing in the early morning, it’ll be sleeting/freezing rain/raining with no accumulation; 3. The sleet may be short-lived, too. Why? The `cold’ dome is really not that cold and will easily be dislodged, even at the surface where the ground is hardly frozen.
I do like the fact that we finally have some cooler/colder air to deal with the coming weeks. There will be other opportunities for snow. They may not show up on the latest GFS, but we all know how, for instance, clippers surprise us.
Joshua,
HRRR says it will stay snow till sunrise. Then sleet for another couple of hours.
It is predicting some pretty intense rates. Surface temp remains freezing or below until about sunrise or perhaps a bit before.
Here are the 2M temps at 5AM
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122819/t3/temp_t32m_f15.png
So Dave I’m just curious on how much you think falls tonight in the General Boston area.
I haven’t a clue. I have just been posting model output.
We’ll certainly have a mess with sleet for at least awhile.
There Will be a period of snow ahead of the sleet.
Right now it looks like snow from a little after midnight
until 6AM or so. Then sleet from 6 Am until about 9 AM.
After that, it’s all rain.
Impossible to say how much ends up on the ground.
And even more difficult for me to separate out
what I wish would happen and what will really happen.
Also, which model(s) does one believe.
Some models have the cold holding on longer, while others erode it more quickly. What to believe? What to dismiss?
Blend them altogether and it looks like at least an inch
or 2, perhaps a bit more. Even though I said that, it could easily end up LESS as often times the models
have no clue how FAST the warmer air aloft will
move in. However, that high is pretty cold.
It’s a tough one and I am very thankful I do NOT have
to make a public forecast.
19Z HRRR 1 hour snowfall as of 10Z (4-5AM)
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122819/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
Total snowfall as of 10Z (5AM)
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122819/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
Run after Run, this HRRR isn’t backing down. It is clearly calling for a slug of snow, then sleet.
Anyone know if it is on the correct path here, OR totally and completely out to lunch??????
This 18Z Nam disagrees with the HRRR
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030
Tropocial tidbits
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015122818/namconus_asnow_neus_13.png
12Z GFS ensemble
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122812/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_7.png
I’m a big necn guy, and they have lowered Boston to 0-1 inch with a quick changeover, with most of accumulation in northern Mass.
Agree north of Boston.
Everything I’ve seen for Boston south and east is 0-2 inches. Everything I’ve seen Boston northward and west of 128 is saying 1-4 inches. With rain after 7-9am. Idk maybe I’m missing something. Maybe tk can chime in.
It depends upon which model(s) one believes coupled
with their meteorological experience and knowledge.
This one is tough. I wish the ocean weren’t so damn warm.
Boston Bouy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 47.5 °F
Stellwagen Bouy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 48.2 °F
Comparatively speaking, that’s a Blow Torch out there!!
The only thing that will prevent the coast from dramatically warming up instantly is that COLD high
pressure area. BUT I have seen it warm up very very very fast when the wind turns on shore with any velocity
at all. So we’ll wait and see.
Boston could actually go over to rain while the upper
atmosphere still supports snow.
I could envision Boston, especially Logan, going over
to plain rain and then STILL SLEETING when the upper air warms above freezing.
Yesterday I was more concerned with the onshore torch instead of the 750mb torch for Boston. Haven’t been able to look at much today.
The 700MB torch looks to stay unlit for us until 7 AM or so. So whatever we get will
have to come before that. Now how much
will the Ocean torch do? Depends much
on the wind direction and speed and intensity of precip.
HRRR looks to deliver some pretty intense precip, so that may inhibit the torch for a bit or at least significantly
slow down the warm up process for awhile.
We shall see.
We will have to see for ourselves how much of an impact the onshore flow has on temps. I don’t trust a model given the circumstances.
Understand that.
I’m just going by experience is all. We shall see. If precip is not intense, it will warm RAPIDLY.
Although this is not complete for the entire area, the snow is certainly complete
for our area.
If I am not mistaken, this is back up from the 12Z run. Something is up???
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030
Just for giggles, here is the 12Z run
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036
Indeed, it is up and up significantly over the 12Z run. Hmmmm
perhaps the HRRR is not out to lunch????????
Zoomed view by clicking on this map:
http://imgur.com/IbbWWZd
Eric fisher just said on wbz 1030 radio says coating to 2 inches for many, with the 2 inches closer to 128. Also said it will all be washed away.
GFS is either in for its finest hour or an ugly flop. 18z run shows even more snow than the 12z.
YUP. The GFS has been telling pretty much the same story for a week, although
it backed off quite bit over the last day. This is really up from this morning’s
run.
Wouldn’t it be something? One way or the other, it shall be interesting.
You never know. I see some subtle hints that the no snow forecasts could go south. Still won’t be looking at anything too big, but I think most of us wake up to a white ground in the morning.
28F here in Wrentham. Brrrr. Been at or below freezing all day. Combined with the overnight timing on the precip, the warm ground may not be much of a factor IF snow does fall.
IF we stay below freezing all night, then I think you
are correct. Frozen precip will have no trouble accumulating, whatever should fall.
Look at the surface maps. I see subtle signs that the coastal may develop sooner than previously modeled.
I could be out to lunch and suffering from wishful thinking.
All I can think of is that I have to drive around town tomorrow!
Boston is currently 30 degrees with a dew point of 7. Wind is from the NNE at 10 knots. Let the battle begin!
I love your attitude!!!
Cloud deck rolling in.
That low dew point is also noteworthy… First battle will be just getting anything at all to fall. May waste most of the “cold period” just trying to saturate the column.
Good point, but once it really gets going, shouldn’t take too long.
We’ll miss out on much of the pre light stuff.
Keep an eye on that dew point, good indicator on how effective that onshore wind component is. Loss of daytime heating will limit the amount of vertical mixing so dew point will likely rise as the onshore flow continues.
20Z HRRR total snow/sleet as of 6AM tomorrow:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122820/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
1 hour snow ending 6AM
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122820/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
700MB temperatures as of 6AM. Just about ready to change to sleet
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122820/t3/temp_t3700_f15.png
2M Temperature at 6AM
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122820/t3/temp_t32m_f15.png
20Z HRRR 850mb temperatures.
Plenty of time for SLEET after the snow.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122820/t3/temp_t3850_f15.png
At first glance, the Winter Weather Advisory might be a bit too widespread and should not include Boston and especially SE MA but after thinking about it, the sleet alone probably warrants it.
And I agree with you JPD…the water temps are too blowtorch, even for this time of year. Hopefully they go down next month, but I suspect they will remain above normal regardless. This is not a year for a “cold” ocean…maybe next winter.
Water temps are 4 to 8 F above normal from Boston to the Gulf of Maine.
TK – Will the ground ever really freeze solid this winter?
Late January / February.
HRRR #’s a bit too high.
Ocean will have more influence than the models see.
Sorry. I’m behind on everything today.
Dave, Sue, Vicki, and Tom…
Hadi requested your emails. Is it ok if I send him the ones that you are using to post here?
It is. I think at least one other said ok as well.
That’s fine tk, but thank you for chiming in, and semuring things
Sorry for the typo
When I get home from the Cape, I will send you (TK) an email I use far more often. Then, when you can, please feel free to give that one to Hadi. This should be sometime Wednesday.
Ok!
Fine by me.
I said aok earlier.
Many will see some white on the ground, but it’s almost inconsequential given that at or near the coast the snow and glop that make things look white will be washed away rather quickly by mid to late morning. I also do not think Boston’s coast will get much white at all. Perhaps Allston, Brighton, JP, Hyde Park, but at the immediate coast this will be primarily a sleet/rain event, I believe. We’ll see. I hope I’m wrong and wake up to a winter wonderland.
I think your right Joshua for many, granted for most it will be a coating to an inch or 2 tops, but you will not need the plows or shovels, some salt early on.
Interesting discusion of weather by Bob Henson (sp?) weather underground on wgbh. He commented on the tornadoes in TX, specifically Dallas which is strongest in Dallas history for December. Also he said a strong El Niño is not affected greatly by climate change but it is the peaks of El Niño that are more likely to be affected in warming climate. Also, December is known to have warm weather during strong El Ninos. When you get el Ninos in a warming atmosphere which we are in, you can expect the warmest years to be El Niño years.
Fantasy storm on 18z GFS second weekend of January
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122818&fh=276&xpos=0&ypos=185
That will be a lakes cutter,
Graze/OTS on Friday January 8.
That’s how much Ik
Looking like the snow sleet begins between 1-3am
I know tk said hrrr numbers are a
bit high
But the hrrr is not backing down at this late
Hour. 22z hrrr shows 4-6 inches for boston.
Pretty consistent with gfs.
Makes me think the main engine for
The hrrr is gfs derived. Only difference
Is resolution??? Is that the case?
In any case it has snow through
8 AM.
I am mobile else i’d post links.
I can assure you 4-6 for Boston is not even in the Cards at all that thing must be broken .
Ratios are not going to be 10:1
Model is likely having issues resolving the sst anomalies just offshore which impacts 2m temp output, which is a big component with those snowfall maps.
Tk said pay no attention
He said no such thing. He said the numbers are a bit high.
Like exactly
Hiya blog buddies!
Headed up your way on Wednesday (I think I mentioned I moved down to NC). Rebooked myself from tomorrow. The airlines get so sensitive about the smallest weather systems these days!
Miss the snow. The El Niño pattern has made the Carolinas particularly wet so far this season. The grass is always greener, right? Hope you’re all doing well!
PS – one word on football. Living in Charlotte now, after yesterday’s loss to the Falcons, all the panthers fans have inexplicably disappeared. Can’t say that about loyal Pats fans!
Hi DS. Nice to see you here. I am not as convinced about Boston fans. They are on a winning high. But certainly would not disappear after a loss although might think it is the end of the world ;). Enjoy our area while you are here!!
0z soundings are just in. Maybe TK can confirm this, but to me it looks much warmer than modeled up towards 700-750mb, already above freezing. A serious sleet storm on the way, but not snow. HRRR keying in on this now as well, showing basically all sleet for most of MA.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-raobplt.cgi?id=KCHH&pl=skewt&cu=la&pt=parcel&size=640×480&pg=web
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-raobplt.cgi?id=KOKX&pl=skewt&cu=la&pt=parcel&size=640×480&pg=web
Note the dew point (black dashed line)
Should cool back to sub freezing when things start moistening up
It is indeed, and this is what I meant when I pointed out some of the model shortcomings in this situation. Less snow, more sleet.
Scott is correct though about the cooling that will take place initially with precipitation.
Temp 28 with DP 4. Interesting.
I am concerned about ice and am commute.
Hey Jp Dave I think you will like this https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/681598395107115008
What is with Cohen and fisher. Is that THE Cohen? I hope not.
Well almost into 2016 and I have yet to turn on my oil heat (been using my AC heat pump). Saving a ton of money! Hope the weather keeps up!
We have had heat on in night in front of house only. But we had first delivery of oil last Thursday since mid August. I don’t recall how many gallons but it was not near empty
Yeah they topped me off a few weeks ago from my last fill up in the spring so I am starting “fresh.” Going to monitor my oil. That mild winter we had many years ago I ran the oil for only a few weeks the whole winter! Hopefully you won’t have any leaks this year! I know last winter was hard on your house.
We thought about ad heat pumps but electric for friends went way up. Did it jump yours?
Electric heat is what kills your bill. My heat pump costs me about 50 a month and I run it as often as I would oil. So it’s way cheaper than oil. My unit is new and high efficiency so that helps.
How does the heat pump work curious . I also have oil heat.
It is part of the outside condenser on a central air unit. You simply turn the thermostat from cool to heat and it runs as normal but blows heat. It basically works in reverse from AC… The heat pump extracts heat from the outside air and pumps it into the house. Even tonight at 28 degrees I could keep my house at 70 easily. However once the temp gets to 25 or lower the heat pump works too hard for little benefit. That’s when I cutover to oil.
Is your heat pump the split?
Hey Vicki… Not sure what you mean?
Temp has held steady at 30.4-30.7 thus far
Vicki, you make a good point about the possibility of icing in the early hours of this storm. I do think that the roads will be particularly bad west of 128, out by 495 and parts of the pike. Even if there is no snow at all in most of Massachusetts, sleet and freezing rain are actually worse than snow to deal with, I think. I know that my car says so!
This said, because there is no cold air behind this storm, everything will wash away and the roads will just be wet around SNE by noontime. Even Framingham will be pushing 40F by then, and possibly higher later in the afternoon. We’re due for a thaw after all. I mean seriously, it’s been cold for nearly 24 hours. That’s way too long. …
Snowlovers, do not despair. A rather consistent pattern of seasonable cold will be upon us by New Year’s Day (good for the ice sculptures). I really do think we’ll get a storm or two the coming couple of weeks. Nothing to write home about, but still it’ll feel like winter.
Good comment as always. That’s what worries me, Joshua. I know we will get snow eventually. This is New England. I’ve been worried for a while that with this pattern, we may…note may please
…. Tend to see icing rather than snow. I hope I am wrong.
Washing it away won’t erase the risk before it warms
Thaw lol
Judah and Eric had a great conversation there and it was a good example of how short form tweets can be misunderstood. But they fixed that up quickly.
I think Eric is half right. We’re going to have a “colder”, that is more average first half of January before a milder back half. The cold will return balanced with milder interludes in February and March. Not looking for all that stormy a pattern, however.
I agree with Judah on the “warm” Winter overall but the different story (in terms of temps) later in the season.
Also, y’all should pay attention to what Scott has to say with his analysis. He’s the real deal when it comes to Winter forecasting.
Judah is a professional and may want to learn how to convey using fewer words. Eric did what I’ve seen him do well before and brought the dialog back to polite. In the end both did well.
I am really enjoying reading Scotts posts.
Finally got to take a look at a few things…
Start time on precip looks to be a lot earlier than what was shown yesterday, around 1AM for Boston.
Coastal front will waste no time moving through Boston, so changeover looks to happen a few hours after precip begins, which will be snow.
Tuesday morning commute should be just fine for the I-95 belt around Boston.
Agree again, and one place I got this wrong was delaying the onset for too long. But no matter, the cold won’t hold.
KBOS already reporting light snow. Pretty intense band of sleet over CT, which may support moderate snowfall rates once it reaches Boston assuming whatever remaining dry air doesn’t gobble it up.
The latest KBOX AFD is a bunch of mashed potatoes, which some will have fall from the sky.
Moving this post to the bottom, didn’t mean to post it here.
Current thinking is under 1 inch of snow in all of Metro Boston up through Seacoast NH, building up to around 2 inches outside 495 with some higher amounts as you head into interior southern NH. More sleet will fall, with a changeover from snow to sleet/rain probably BEFORE dawn for Metro Boston. The short range guidance, particularly the HRRR, is going to get burned, no pun intended, by the ocean.
Boston for sure under an inch as it’s just not the right setup this time around .
The hrrr is so wrong many times than its right, gave up on that model yrs ago
The hrrr is usually a snow lovers dream that is wrong many times, I never believe it
That isn’t actually true. Meteorology is the study of weather, and in this age of technology it includes learning which models to well in which instances. It’s not about giving up on a model altogether, except maybe the NOGAPS.
Just heard on a national new station, not that says much,, but specified Boston will see no snow, with sleet on the onset rapidly changing to rain by the morning commute because of ocean temps near 50 degrees.
National news is not usually a good go-to source for local information.
No Ik but they could be right?
I typically go by you
but just posting stuff I’ve seen or heard
And sometimes the local mets aren’t either . I was very disappointed to see certain mets throwing out numbers on Christmas eve including Harvey my favorite TV met.
They were way too early.
They have no choice….repeat, repeat, repeat.
Sounds like they just reviewed the 00z NAM. I still think it will snow for a couple hours, not sure how hard it does snow.
Morning commute is relative. Based on TKs and Scotts comments, I having more confidence that heading here to Boston may be safer. But commutes often begin at 4:00 or 5:00. How is that looking? Thank you.
Such a short window of snow. If roads are treated then shouldn’t be any problem.
Thank you Scott. Great news
The 00z nam run has basically nothing in the Boston to providence corridor, seriously… Like a brief shot a snow and sleet rapidly changing to rain by morning commute. Tk your thoughts????
I had called for 0-trace amounts, let’s see how close I come .
That will be about right for the city.
Thanks
TK – Can Logan squeeze out 0.1 – 0.5″ or is a mere trace more likely?
Trace is most likely, up to 0.5 inch is POSSIBLE but it would have to start with a burst of moderate snow, like right away.
Temp has risen from 30.4 at 7pm to 31.1 at 10pm. Any signs?
Temp has even risen to 31.3 degrees, very little time for accumulating.
Projected temp at 1am is 32 and does not drop back.
It will drop back for a while when precipitation starts.
29 here in mansfield
Temp dropped a degree to 27. DP up a whopping 3 to 7
30 in Boston now
TK, if what we get the coming two weeks is just average cold and the latter half of the month reverts to mild, will we get any nights this winter below 15F? 2011-2012 had a few cold shots (I recall Boston getting to single digits twice that winter), as did 2001-2002. Will this be a winter without any true cold shot? Note, I do not consider low to mid 30s during the day cold, nor do I consider low to mid 20s at night cold.
We’ll have some very cold nights, especially in February. There may even be a few in January too despite a milder second half. We’re not going back to December’s pattern.
Brrrr that’s cold!!!!
HRRR is definitely too high. 8-10″ is never happening north of the Pike. 2″ max for all of Massachusetts before we get a ton of ice(away from the coast, at least).
You can tell by NWS’s 9:59PM discussion that they are worried their forecast is not going to verify. Too many what-if’s and not guaranteed aspects. They’re worried that the dry air near the ground may delay the meaningful precipitation by 1 to 2 hours, and they are not sure about the timing of the warm intrusion at mid levels and have split the difference between the faster warming NAM and too cold GFS in the early part of the storm. That’s a gamble given how much evidence there is against the GFS.
Sleetorama outside my window right now.
There is your mid level warming. GFS wrong already.
Meteorologist Gil Simmons here in CT nailed it when he said little if any snow and this would be a sleet to rain situation.
KBOS already reporting light snow. Pretty intense band of sleet over CT, which may support moderate snowfall rates once it reaches Boston assuming whatever remaining dry air doesn’t gobble it up.
The latest KBOX AFD is a bunch of mashed potatoes, which some will have fall from the sky.
The reason question is, do we have loaded mashed or garlic mashed?
Maybe a good idea to inquire the Food Network
Charlie, I was thinking. You gave up on the HRRR years ago, but it only became operational for its first Winter in 2012-2013. Just how many years ago did you give up on it? Before it was programmed?
In addition, though not perfect, the model nailed a few snowfalls last Winter. It’s not always a “snowlovers dream” and it’s certainly not always wrong. This time, it will be, but if you know the reasons why, then as a meteorologist you can know to not buy its solution. It’s merely a simulation generator.
The hrrr has never been right tk, idk
But that is not true. It has performed very well on several events. As I said, the key is knowing WHEN to believe it and when not to.
If you want, I can dig up some examples of excellent forecasts by it. My friend and colleague keeps a record of model performance.
GFS WRONG AGAIN!!!’
I’ve been telling the blog for 3 days that the GFS is not going to hit this one.
Temp is up to 31.9 degrees
It will come down a few degrees briefly when the precip. kicks in, then very gradually go back up.
https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=3798&action=edit
I added my road condition map.(towards the bottom
oh it is also 25 out