Thursday Forecast

119 Comments

2:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)…
For this final day of 2015 we’ll see a thawing of the foggy refrigerator that much of the region from the Boston area west and north became during the last couple days as a couple low pressure areas passed by with some cold air trapped near the surface. Today, we’ll see a drier westerly wind develop and temperatures will climb into the 40s, melting or softening much of the ice so it can be removed if it does not remove itself. The first 4 days of 2016 will see a trend toward colder weather. Some snow showers may be around Sunday from a cold front and Monday from a northeasterly flow off the ocean.
TODAY: Any early rain departs Cape Cod & Islands. Early areas of fog. Clouds to start, then more sun. Highs 40-46. Wind variable becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THIS EVENING: Partly cloudy. Temperatures fall into 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
MIDNIGHT: Mostly clear. Temperatures 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers, favoring eastern MA. Temperatures fall into the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)…
Fair and cold January 5. Fair and milder January 6-7. Risk of rain or snow January 8. Fair and colder January 9.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)…
Fair and cold to start the period, then a risk of unsettled weather and moderating temperatures mid period. Fair and colder weather to follow that.

119 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thank you TK and happy new year to all WHW friends. 2016 wil be a great year, so happy to be moving on from a a very challenging 2015 for sure.

    TK will you ask Arod if I can have his email as well.

    1. “Freak heat wave” … 😀

      My friend wrote something about this which I will post later. There is very little unusual about the “heat wave” and the big storm that caused it.

    1. Nice, thanks.
      I wasn’t going to read the Faux news version, but decided to see what they
      had to say. Quite similar, actually.

  6. Good morning and thank you for the morning update TK.

    Escaped the freezing rain in the City last night as temperatures remained above
    the freezing mark. I imagine we had a decent glaze inland. Any reports?

    re: Upcoming Events

    1. Tk mentioned ocean snow showers for Monday. Eric mentioned it last night
    as well. Tom be watching down there in Marshfield.
    2. The 12th still “appears” to be the target time frame for a “possible” N’oreaster. Will
    continue to monitor. Runs of the GFS have wobbled back and forth. Latest version
    had Inland snows with rain to snow on the coast.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015123106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015123106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

    Another system threatens earlier than that around the 10th, but indications are it would be mostly OTS. Again, will watch.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015123106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

    Another around the 5th appears to be a OTS job

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015123106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

    That’s the round up. 😀

  7. re: Monday

    Did Tom at one point mention the possibility of an Inverted Trough? Seems I recall
    that.

    Anyhow, in conjunction with possible Ocean effect snow on Monday, is it possible
    we get a bit of an inverted trough to go along with it? Take a look at this CMC chart.
    Looks a bit like an Inverted trough to me. It will be interesting to see how this shapes
    up as we get closer and the HiRes models can deal with it.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015123100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

  8. Thanks TK.
    On this last day of 2015 always like to look back at the year of weather we had. The coldest February on record, the record amount of snow in Boston when the majority of that fell in about a month, the hail storm in Boston back in August where half inch hail fell, a summer with back loaded heat and humidity and some very warm temps in early September and the warmest December on record.
    Will see what 2016 has to offer. I can’t wait to hear everyone’s bold weather predictions on tomorrow and will see on the last day of 2016 how we did with those predictions.

    2. I am not for making year long predictions, that’s for sure.

      Here’s a bold prediction: 2016 will be another year

  9. Doesn’t seem to be much ice from last night here. My car looks just wet. Perhaps some ice. As the sun is just hitting it, a layer of steam is coming off the entire car. Fascinating to watch it.

  10. Tom I remember in 2013 made a bold prediction on the 1st of the year about a 20 inch snow storm for Boston. Boston did get that amount and a little more with the blizzard of 2013.
    I think its fun on the 1st of the year to make predictions and then look back on the last day of the year and see if any of our predictions are correct.

  11. Thank you tk 🙂

    Heading down to wash all this dirty salt off the truck and car, looks rather quiet for a while. Happy New Years 🙂

  12. North Pole has gone above freezing 3 times in the past 60 years. So, although an unusual event it is not unprecedented. Furthermore, one cannot attribute yesterday’s 33F day at the North Pole to global warming. Rather, as Tom pointed out, a powerful storm named “Frank” traveled almost directly due north once it hit Iceland, drawing in warmer air to the polar region. Notably, our friends in Kimmirut did not feel the effects, as they are far west of the passing low. The powerful storms that have battered the British Isles are fairly typical this time of year. It’s the number of storms and their intensity that are uncommon. This may be related to El Nino.

    1. When I say the North Pole has gone above freezing 3 times, I am referring specifically to December. Of course, the North Pole often goes above freezing in July.

      1. All great points and you saved me work. The article out on it is very misleading and I’m disappointed in it. More later. Busy day.

    2. Agreed, but this particular event was headline news yesterday on many news stations, as well as many social networks, and was (trending). All about what gets the eyes or clicks. Happy new year!! 🙂

    3. Joshua, your comment that it is the number of storms and their intensity that are uncommon pretty much says it all. One offs are common. But we are now into year 15 of a century that has seen a warming record set nearly every year. I definitely understand this warming at the North Pole can be attributed to Frank. However, how much of the decade old trend for the North Pole to be warmer and the ice to be far less than it has been can we attribute to Frank? And how much of Frank is attributable to the climate warming?

      Cyclical – yes. In part human induced – you’ll have to go to great lengths to convince me. Remember, PCBs are now in the waters of both poles. Just one very small reminder of what we have done.

  13. The pattern is changing for sure, but the effects of El Nino will not disappear, evident by a persisting SE ridge.
    What really needs to happen is for cold air to seriously build over Canada to help combat that ridge. It will be a slow process, and I can guarantee operational models are useless beyond day 5 right now.
    The best thing we have going for us right now is that the Pacific torch is gone which in part enables this pattern change.

      1. I hope to be here more regularly now, most of my college hurdles are in the past now. This place is a great reminder of where my true passion lies, which can easily be forgotten when loads of garbage gets forced down your throat in college.

        1. Curious to know what other courses they make
          you take up there?

          Calculus I presume?
          Physics?
          Chemistry?
          Thermodynamics?
          Atmospheric Physics?
          Differential Equations?

          When I worked at Air Force Cambridge Research Labs during the late 60s, I remember looking at an advanced meteorology text that dealt with Atmospheric Physics and nothing but Differential Equations. Heavy stuff.

          I had more fun operating the doppler radar. 😀
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doppler_radar

          Just curious how advanced they get with the BS level Degree?

          I wanted to pursue a Degree in Meteorology. I had a long conversation with Don Kent and he told me to
          prepare at the BS level by taking as much Math and Physics that I could and to pursue Meteorology at
          the Masters level. Well I did Major in Math with a Minor in Physics, so I was ready. Then I got married and never obtained my Masters. Back then there
          were not many Colleges that offered Meteorology. You guys are lucky these days. I also did not want to leave the area, so that limited by options.

          1. So far I’ve taken 3 semesters of calculus, horrible experience… Also 2 semesters of calc based physics which was not bad at all, great professor. I am not required to take differential equations and have chosen not to as that professor is absurd. Chemistry is not required either which I am happy about.
            As for meteorology classes, have taken atmospheric thermodynamics last year. This past semester I took dynamics 1 which was great, professor made the material very easy to understand. Also took a analysis and forecasting class which I absolutely loved. Then there was a class called physical meteorology, which I finished with a 69.4, passing is a 70. Practicality useless class and the professor was horrible. Going to retake next year, along with thesis…

            2. Scott, I know we have never met, but you have been here for enough years for me to believe we all know you are a fine young man not to mention very intelligent and passionate about your “passions.” Many students will blame a prof when it is really the fault of the student. IMHO you are NOT one of those students. I have no doubt that you will be fine. However, What a shame that there are multiple professors who discourage students from learning because of their inability to teach. So sad.

        2. Scott, it is wonderful news that you will be here more often and even better news for you that you are over the biggest hurdles.

  17. Absolutely beautiful day!!! Driving around doing errands with windows open. Temp in truck says 45 degrees!!

  19. Scott, I would say make sure you check about not needing Chemistry, like double check. I know its more physics that you need, but for Most BS degree’s you need at least one semester of chemistry if you are majoring in a science.
    I have to take 2 semesters of General Chem but I might also be needing to take organic chem (one semester done). I chose to go into environmental science with a marine track. I figured that Forecasting the weather, tracking storms is a hobby something I like to do, but not what I want to do for my future.

  20. It seems like most of the storms are out to sea for the foreseeable future. Temps will be around average.

  22. climate change, I am seeing people say that what is happening in the Arctic is rare but not related to climate change, I am sorry but that is not true once so ever. This is one of the many things happening do to climate change. Expect this more and More, Expect Ice to become not permanent.
    I phrase that we need to throw into the garbage is that we do not have enough data to prove this is due to climate change. That we will be seeing things that we never saw before due to the lack of data.

    I am sorry but there certainly is and how long do we have to wait for enough data It will probably be to late, we all ready are to late because people did not wake up back in the early 2000s/1990s. My generation and the generations in the future will be with out the arctic. There will be no Polar bears but in zoo’s as soon as 2050

    There is a reason why I am majoring in Environmental science with a marine track.

      1. I’m not clear on what you mean by what happened at north pole. I also saw that it has been above freezing only three times in December since 1948 (not positive of year but am sure it said 3 times in december). The source could have absolutely been incorrect. Do you have another? Also important to remember and what the articles stress is that it is 24 hour darkness now.

        2. yes melting has happened in which water built up ontop of the ice. but only once has it actually been that you could see down into the ocean. during the winter

    2. We don’t have near enough weather data to know even a bit what is normal or not. Even if we had 100,000 years of accurate weather data that would mean almost nothing. Greenland was once lush and green…it may return to that whether or not people are around or not. The fact that the North Pole was above freezing for a day means nothing.

      1. that phrase that you just used not enough weather data makes me cringe, we do have enough data to realize that these effects are do to climate change and the climate change is happening due to human activities. Yes it might have happened before but not to this extent In the records, it has gotten this warm 3 times during the winter at the north pole, does not mean the ice has melted through so you could see the ocean water that should be covered by sea ice. I have a professor that I keep in touch with who has done research up there. They showed me some of their work

        1. Matt I’d like to see some of that work if you have it.

          I believe that climate is warming. I really am not sure we have enough conclusive data to link man to the change. Does the professors data show that? I’d be quite interested.

          1. Once he releases it, I will put it on here, could be a good 6-8 months though as he is still doing it.

      2. We do not have enough data on climate. We do know climate is warming. We do have enough data to know we are destroying our earth from every corner. Whether it affects climate IMHO is a moot point. I simply don’t believe we can continue to destroy he only planet we have.

        1. Agree!!! Scientist can positively show it warming, but can’t prove its from humans, it’s impossible!!! We can think possibly it’s from humans the last 40yrs, but there is absolutely positively no proof. I’m not against humans contribution, but to blame us, is absolute half thinking, and already have your mind made up aka brainwashed by certain people. Just my opinion 🙂

  23. Not weather-related, but because of its potentially devastating consequences I feel a need to report. In Dubai, a skyscraper is completely engulfed by flames. Many residents and offices in this skyscraper, home to the “Address Hotel.” Horrific image.

      1. Apparently the fire is out as I have seen day time images of
        the burned sections. I don’t know how they did it.

        Pretty amazing.

  24. Matt, Love your posts. You’re very knowledgeable. When I say the North Pole has been above freezing 3 times in the past 60 years I am citing the UK Met Office data. I’m not an authority, so I could be wrong in my interpretation of what I read.

    JP Dave, I believe the fire is still going (Dubai). It’s evening there, and the images I am seeing are from this evening. I don’t know when they were taken, but apparently very recently. I hope people were able to escape. Yet, I’m afraid many could not.

    1. The very brief report I read said that many were in the hotel to see the fireworks at Midnight. One person said the staff got folks out calmly and efficiently but there was no mention of how many.

      1. You may correct. That might be something else.
        I think I screwed up. Sorry.

        I check CNN. It appears it’s still ongoing…

  26. There was an explosion on the bottom floors a few minutes ago on the CNN live shot. They said there was a restaurant there so assuming it was natural gas. Have to question the structural integrity of the building at this point.

  27. Howdy HI!
    I’ve been in touch with a couple long time mets. One of them that I used to work with has given me some info on the North Pole “heatwave”. Yes it has gone above freezing 3 times in the last 60 years in December. And the storm system causing it is very similar to many storms that have gone up inside the Arctic circle, especially at this time of year. And yes there is weather map evidence of many many storms near this magnitude taking that track. In addition, this is not the strongest one of the lot. There have been stronger lows periodically going back quite a while. I will post more on this later but right now I’m running errands with Mom, getting ready for a Chinese food dinner, an evening ride to Hampton, then a New Year’s Eve party at home with family and close friends.

    1. Howdy Hi….now I like that.

      That is pretty much what the article I posted above said. It is an area known for dramatic storms. It seems the problem is not the storm as much as the continued and worsening poor condition of the artic ice.

      I would love to see some data on storm history in that area. More out of curiosity than tying them to the climate change issue. So am looking forward to your post

      Meanwhile, Mr Howdy Hi…..enjoy New Years Eve and forget the blog 🙂

  28. How about a tropical system to start the new year off? Just thinking of the possible downstream effects that would create.

      1. Atlantic! The euro has shown it a couple runs now. The idea has been circulating around twitter so something to keep an eye on.

  29. I hope we can cash in on this. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    This is a tasty patter for snow lovers 1/10-1/16 here in New England.

  31. From the NPEO (North pole environmental observatory), buoy 1322472, located at 87.5 N latitude, their closest buoy to the North Pole, went from -37C to -8.52C in about 36 hrs, “a dramatic warming for sure, but not reaching 32F at that buoy”.

  36. Totally agree WW!!! At this point it’s all opinion. I can say what I believe, others can say what they believe. Human r a spec in the billion year life of this planet. 🙂

        1. Then I say …..well done!! And a very happy new year. You still awake?

          Me….I’m off to sleep. Night all. Wishing you a perfect 2016

  38. Some 2016 predictions ….:

    I hope I’m wrong ….. Super Bowl 50 …. Arizona 21 : New England : 17

    First 90F day : April 2nd at Logan (due to precip deficit)

    100F on July 14th

    Some kind of hybrid ocean storm in February ( warm system for winter, part tropical)

    Much colder autumn in 2016 compared to 2015 (I know that is stating the obvious)

  39. Another great year for WHW …. The best weather site around, with the best forecaster around (TK) and an endless amount of great bloggers who I call friends.

  40. In California until tomorrow so I have to wait an extra 3 hours before 2016 makes it to my neck of the woods.
    Happy New Year to all my friends and fellow weather enthusiasts

  41. I just wanted to add a quick hello and Happy New Year to you all.

    I read way more than I post, mainly due to time constraints, but always enjoy the community here.

    Have a great 2016! Almost time to wake up the kids for the count down.

  44. Happy New Year everyone!!!
    I will be making my bold weather predictions for 2016 later today. I saw Tom’s. I can’t wait to hear what your predictions are and then look back on December 31st to see which predictions actually happened.

  46. Good morning all and happy new year. May god bless all of you for a happy and safe 2016. I for one am so very happy to end 2015 and move on from a tough year. All I can say don’t look back at your past and don’t look forward but rather look at each moment in each day as precious as anything. May everyone’s wishes come true in 2016 bc mine are.

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