Friday Forecast

135 Comments

9:18AM

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Wishing you all the best for 2016!

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)…
A quiet but somewhat colder pattern starts out 2016. First, an inversion followed by a trough will combine to cause some cloudiness and eventually a rain or snow shower in a few areas during today. The weekend will be dominated by high pressure, providing fair and seasonably chilly weather. A shot of very cold air will arrive by Monday and the wind may be just onshore enough to cause some snow showers over Cape Ann and the South Shore to Cape Cod of MA. High pressure brings dry and chilly weather Tuesday.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower this afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Passing snow showers early. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow showers possible east coastal MA (Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod). Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)…
Fair and milder January 6-7. Risk of rain or snow January 8. Fair and colder January 9-10.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)…
Storm threat early to mid period followed by fair weather, brief cold then moderating again.

135 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Hey! I’m first this year! Happy New Year everyone. (My ice has melted; just a few white patches but I can take the trash out again:)

  4. Happy New Year Everyone! 🙂

    TK – On Monday will the immediate city of Boston have any snow showers?

  5. Thanks TK and Happy New Year to you and everyone here on the blog. I am looking forward to another year blogging with all of you and see what will happen weather wise this year.
    Here are my predictions for 2016. I saw Tom’s on the previous blog. I look forward to reading all of yours and look back last day of 2016 and see which of our predictions happened.
    Widespread 12-24 inch storm in February
    Milder spring than last year.
    First 90 degree temps will happen in mid May
    20-25 90 plus degree days for Boston and a summer which fans of 3 H weather will love.
    More thunderstorm days than last year. 2-3 weak tornado touch downs
    A threat from a tropical system in September
    Fall temps above normal
    First widespread snowfall mid December

  6. Here were Tom’s predictions on the previous blog
    Some 2016 predictions ….:

    I hope I’m wrong ….. Super Bowl 50 …. Arizona 21 : New England : 17

    First 90F day : April 2nd at Logan (due to precip deficit)

    100F on July 14th

    Some kind of hybrid ocean storm in February ( warm system for winter, part tropical)

    Much colder autumn in 2016 compared to 2015 (I know that is stating the obvious)

  7. Good morning and thank you TK for the New Year’s Day Update.

    HAPPY NEW YEAR to all!!!

    I found this photo. I don’t know if it has been photo Shopped or otherwise doctored, but I think it is an awesome shot. It was taken near Mt. Hood, Oregon and it must
    have been last week or at another full moon period.

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xta1/v/t1.0-9/1622799_10207043652782824_292258516387453698_n.jpg?oh=3e54f83130a25e8aa490ed24b7625280&oe=574874C6

    Concerned that next 2 storm threats may end up as mostly rain along the coast.
    Here’s hoping NOT!

    I’ll post some more on this, but it looks as though Tom “may” just get his
    predicted Ocean Effect event on Monday. 😀

    1. Here is the CMC for 18Z Monday and 0Z Tuesday:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png

      I don’t know how much of this would be true Ocean Effect and how much
      would be the effects off a little bit of an inverted trough?

      Total Snow (based on 10:1)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010100/gem_asnow_neus_19.png

      Ratio in this case likely to be higher, perhaps 15:1 and even 20:1???

      Could be 2+ inches across the area.

      Now, to be fair, not even the NAM shows this feature. GFS comes close with
      snow just off shore. Will check on 12Z runs.

  8. I would say that so far Jimmy’s predictions seem more in line to what TK might be thinking as well.

  10. Tom I will never forget in 2013 on January 1st when you made your predictions and one them was a 20 inch snow storm for Boston and we ended getting that in February and then some.
    Will see what TK and others predictions are for this year when it comes to weather.

  11. Good morning all and happy new year. May god bless all of you for a happy and safe 2016. I for one am so very happy to end 2015 and move on from a tough year. All I can say don’t look back at your past and don’t look forward but rather look at each moment in each day as precious as anything. May everyone’s wishes come true in 2016 bc mine are.

    2. Hadi is everything ok with you ? Just not sure if I missed Somthing. Happy New Years guys. I’m going to skip the predictions on the weather front . Go Bruins .

  12. I’m not much of one to make long range predictions as I have enough trouble
    with very short range ones.

    A couple of thoughts:

    30+ 90 degree days with at least 2 days 100+
    Big April Snow Storm
    This snow season ends up at or above average
    EF4 Tornado somewhere in New England this Severe Season
    Hurricane Landfall in New England this Summer
    365 days with daylight and darkness. 😀 Sorry fresh out of thoughts.

    1. Yup. Just remember, it’s the FIM and it is 12 days out.
      None-the-less, this is a time period to be watched.

  18. TK’s partly serious but mostly for-fun predictions for 2016…

    * El Nino’s set-up is one that will keep us drier than normal even as it weakens.

    * Snowfall will end up below normal but about half of the season’s total will come in one storm sometime in February.

    * A few serious cold shots between late January and early March.

    * Despite a couple very cool spells in the Spring, we’ll get a taste of Summer earlier than normal in 2016 and Spring will end up on the warmer side of average.

    * 2 powerful derechos will sweep New England in early Summer, one northern and central New England, one central and southern New England, with wind damage being significant.

    * Summer 2016 will be one of heat, and lack of widespread rain, although thunderstorms may end up particularly strong where they occur.

    * The drought will worsen into August when it will peak and be severely dented or broken by a series of tropical systems in late August and September.

    * Early Autumn, after the tropical threats, will be mild and dry with quick cool shots.

    * Late Autumn will be more active with more frequent cold.

    * December 2016 will be one of the coldest Decembers on record with above normal snow due more to the frequency of disturbances rather than the magnitude of them.

    BONUS PREDICTION: Charlie, in his truck, tries to flee the EF-4 tornado that JP Dave predicted, but cannot drive at right angles to the tornado due to the inferior set up of our roads here in New England, and is picked up by the tornado. Tragically, his truck thermometer stops working. Fortunately, he survives the experience, somehow being transported to the Beantown City, where he discovers his truck has landed on the wicked witch of the Northeast, and angers her sister, the wicked witch of the Southwest, so much that she vows to destroy his lawn business by making it snow every month of the year unless he can navigate his way through all of the tunnels of the MBTA subway system. Then, and only then, if he’s able to truly apologize for all the mean things he said about Boston, he’ll be magically transported back to Texas so he can experience perfect roads and the best thunderstorms in the world for the rest of his life.

    2. Thank you TK! Very good and it all sounds very plausible, interesting and exciting.

      Your bonus prediction – well. No comment! 🙂

    6. “* Snowfall will end up below normal but about half of the season’s total will come in one storm sometime in February.”

      TK…what’s the “normal” amount you mentioned above? Just curious what that number is. Thanks.

      1. In the vicinity of 50 inches. I suspect this year’s total will be under 40 in the NW suburbs.

  20. El Nino year. An easy prediction would be for unsettled weather for the Tournament Of Roses Parade in Pasadena CA, right? What a spectacular morning there today!

    I usually watch this parade either live (or DVR if I can’t catch it live), on HGTV because I enjoy their announcing and no commercials. But this year I’m putting the HGTV on DVR to watch with our friend Emily after she returns from a 10-day stay at her grad school. For the live show, I’m watching it on Hallmark this morning. They also run it with no commercials, and Bob and Stephanie are doing their final broadcast together on that channel.

      1. Bob Eubanks and Stephanie Edwards. They’ve been doing the Hallmark broadcast for many years. I don’t usually watch that one but figured I’d pay them a tribute by watching the live one.

        I like to pay more attention to the HGTV showing anyway because they explain the detail of each float the best (though Hallmark does well too). I’m just in the process of cleaning up from last night and getting ready for a family gathering this afternoon.

        We’re going to watch the Winter Classic while we all hang out this afternoon including my brother and sister in law from CT and their 2 sons, one of which has traveled back from Singapore where he lives and works. 🙂

        1. Well I know who Bob Eubanks is at least, but have no
          Clue reL Stephanie Edwards, Never heard of here. Total blank here. 😀

          1. Actress / TV …

            She’s been in a couple movies and been in a few TV episodes of popular shows including “Love, American Style”, “Marcus Welby, M.D.”, “Police Story” to name a few.

  21. Hmmm 12Z GFS wants to take the system for 1/8 OTS, but does want to throw
    some light snow along the immediate coast.

    1. This split type pattern is more likely to happen. If we get a system up here from the southern jet it’s going to be around January 12-13.

    2. And the system for the 12th OTS and a follow-up system on the 14th OTS.
      THEME OF THE DAY => OTS.

      LONG, LONG Way to GO!

  22. 986 mb low south of us on the 14th. Moving that one a little further north things COULD get interesting.

    1. It keeps flip flop run to run. It’s a long way out there, so there is time.
      We just need to sit back and watch how it plays out.

      The way things have been going our best chances will be OTS and then
      real systems will be Warm cutters. 👿 😈

  25. Wishing the WHW family a New Year rich with the blessings of happiness and good health ~ Happy New Year!!!

  26. The inversion-fueled cloudiness will likely limit or eliminate the glare issue some were worried about regarding playing hockey at Gillette today. It’s almost game time! If the sun does become more dominant later in the game it will be after the ice is in shadow.

    1. I’m heading out for a 8 mile run to kick this food out of me, ate to much yesterday and last night. Just a thick sweatshirt is needed. 🙂

  29. My 2016 prediction regarding water temps – they will not get below 40F…maybe 39F at best. Current temps are still at 47F. In other words, they will remain above normal for the winter season.

    Next Winter 2016-17…water temps plunge quickly after extremely warm summer.

  32. Just took down 1/2 of the Christmas decorations. The Mrs. wants to leave the
    outside lights up until little Christmas, 1/6.

  35. Something could still be brewing for 11th & 12th. It’s hard enough to predict 12 hours out, let alone 12 days. LOL

  36. I always say when you have low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. There certainly looks to be low pressure on the east coast in that time frame. This low for the 11th 12th time frame was over NYC a few days ago and now its missing us to the south which is so typical this far out in advance to have these changes.

  37. Happy New Year all! Tough game for the B’s.

    Interesting weather pattern ahead I think. Certainly much more wintry, no more +20F temperature departures. In terms of snow, it’ll start slow with a couple snow shower/squall episodes like today and the likely ocean-effect event early next week. Longer term though, in the periods centered around the 8th and 12th, there’s much bigger storm potential. First one may be an OTS but the second one looks promising. 12z ECMWF ensembles screamed snowstorm for that period. And even beyond that, I think it stays generally seasonably cool with occasional snow chances. Teleconnections look to be pointing the right way. ECMWF weeklies last night also looked promising.

  39. Pretty good batch of snow showers and isolated squalls crossing Mass, should maintain themselves as low level instability lingers coupled with strong cyclonic flow aloft.

  40. Temps are above freezing now so have to watch out for roads getting icy if the showers make it to Boston

      2. Because Boston sucks and any other city does it better. There I saved you the trouble. 🙂

        1. There is a huge miscommunication between me and many on here, I love this area, I love Boston, there are just so many missed opportunities. You folks think I hate it here, couldn’t be further from the truth. There are just many things that I don’t agree with in how they do things. Folks just take me the wrong way, and immediately go on the defensive. I don’t want this to turn into a discussion, “please”. I just don’t want to watch NYC or Miami, I want to watch my home city, and they took it away. That’s sad to us.

            1. Just to name a few things, I love the fresh seafood that is rare to get anywhere else. Along with I do like the history. And there are many other things Vicki

  45. Been reading a little here and there about the tropics this coming summer. “Active” seems to be the operating word.

          1. That should be it for the flake activity. My worry about roads getting icy didn’t come to fruition which is a good thing I suppose. I’m just so used to the Northern VT climate, need to change gears.

            1. switching from one climate to another makes sense. I have seen some intense squalls around here but not like up north. Glad they didn’t work out but always better to be aware the possibility exists. Thanks Scott

  49. With Boston first night, WBZ use to host it but lost it and it was suppose to go to channel 5, but then channel 5 got the go ahead to do the 4th in NYC and it was due to ratings they did that instead, There was not enough time to do the paper work and change the settings for wbz to host first night. Really unfortunate I honestly hate the NYC first night celebration. I been to both Boston and NYC first night, I like Boston more. for both new years eve and the 4th of July

    1. Makes sense Matt. Also Boston being the first was the spotlight. So many have jumped on the idea That it is no longer unique. That is a good thing

  50. couple of storm chances forming on the weather models.
    for the storm possibilites next weekend,
    GFS winter storm,
    Canadian inside runner (rain storm)
    EURO, I am not totally sure how it would work out. As there is an area of low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast and then one over the ohio river valley. Then forms a 995 mb storm south of Nova Scotia. I think the storm off the mid atlantic becomes stronger and brings a coastal. One can hope.

    1. They are a ways out there, however, something appears to be up.
      We’ll just have to continue monitoring.

  51. 9th – 15th looks to be when the window is open for something wintry. Hopefully something materializes in that window.

  52. Just a word of advice Charlie…
    You’re free to have an opinion on anything. I just think the way you tend to present your opinions about “missed opportunities” by Boston on here tend to be stated in a way that are pretty convincing you dislike the area. So if you are being true in saying you love it, you’re not conveying the message clearly. And it’s not just a few of us misunderstanding you. The vast majority of people (a phrase you are fond of) see it generally the same way. Sure there are negative things about Boston. It’s an old city, with an old layout. Maybe some of the planning and execution has been less than stellar. Yes, we have an aged subway system overdue for major repair. I’m not going to argue that there are many shortcomings. However, as I stated above, Boston is an old city and many “mistakes” were made that were not seen as mistakes in the original design. It will take much time to fix those. Some of them cannot be truly fixed but only modified. Those of us that live here, for the most part, choose to be here knowing all of this. Yes sometimes we complain about it but we know the facts I stated above, and have the opportunity to leave the area if it is too overwhelming for us to live in with any quality. Most of us just choose to put up with the idiosyncrasies of this place we love to call home. I’d love to hear more about the things you do love about Boston and this area, because I’ve heard plenty about what you don’t like. Share your thoughts if you want to clear up what you call a miscommunication. I welcome them. 🙂

    1. Your right tk, I relay my message in a negative fashion, but in the end it’s home. The major miscommunication is my translation to the problem that I think can be fixed. I believe it has all to do with my translation. This isn’t all the miscommunication as we disagree, I believe some should spend money to do this or fix that, but if we all agreed I think that would be a problem too. 🙂

  53. Evening thoughts…

    Rain/snow showers were expected. Here in Woburn we had 1 rain shower at 4:30PM and 2 snow showers this evening.

    Isolated snow showers later Sunday with Arctic front. I think ocean-effect snow on Monday will be limited to the South Shore and Cape unless the wind is more NE than I expect.

    The late-week storm threat will be a little faster than modeled (Friday), weak, and the bulk of the energy should be to the south.

    The next storm threat is late January 12 into January 13. It has a shot at being more significant but I do not think major, and may be a complex precipitation event.

    We will be colder into mid month, but by then, in typical El Nino fashion, much of Canada will be warming up again.

  55. 6z GFS wants to give accumulating snow to the interior next weekend. The storm around the 12th 13th now is a miss. The 0z run had a rainorama with the storm tracking to our west for the 12th and 13th.

    1. I believe the 06z run is a very poor representation of what will take place. Discounting it.

  57. None of the models are showing ocean Effect snow for Monday at this time.
    Will continue to monitor. 😀

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