Saturday Forecast

70 Comments

9:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)…
Generally quiet pattern the next several days with the most important “event” being a shot of very cold air to start the coming week and some potential ocean-effect snow showers for a part of the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Passing snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow showers possible east coastal MA (Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod). Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 20.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)…
Fair and milder January 7. Risk of rain or snow January 8. Fair and colder January 9-10, milder January 11.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)…
Storm threat early in the period followed by fair weather. Temperatures variable in the region early in the period depending on the behavior of potential storminess, briefly colder at mid period then moderating slightly.

70 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    New Year, familiar results ….. +7, 7, 8 and 6F. Just not coming close to the “average” nighttime low temps.

    Happy Perihelion !

  3. Thank you, sir.

    It is a beautiful morning. Very nice to see snow on the ground and a crisp blue sky. Not a cloud in sight.

      1. She had about 2 inches of snow/sleet that was then coated with glaze. No chance for that to melt even with the 40s. Sun, when we had it, was angled too low.

    1. Yes, we still have a solid 1 to 2 inches on the ground here depending on location/elevation. Here at my house I had about 1.5 the other day, while just over 2 inches fell on the hill my friend lives on across town. None of it has melted.

    1. After December, I’m not surprised at all there are still green lawns. We have been “colder” but not that cold yet, so it’ll take a while for them to finally go dormant.

    1. I’m surprised it is still on roofs here. Our deck still has a thin layer but it doesn’t get a ton of sun. Out front roof gets full south sun, however, and still has snow.

  9. TK, for the first time I recall, I notice you said your water areas are scary low. Did they rise with the snow/ice event? Oddly, and surprising to me, the areas I check were up more than I’d seen in a while prior to the event and are now up even more. I know that can and likely will change in the blink of an eye but I’m surprised nonetheless

    1. The particular ones that I photographed on a recent walk I have not been back to yet. I may be there tomorrow so I can view firsthand. The more local one I can check tomorrow morning as I may walk around it in the morning.

      1. Tx TK. I’m headed to Uxbridge today and want to Check a few out that way. Last time I was by Lincoln reservoir along Rt 128 it was very low also. Probably as low as I’ve ever seen it. But that was well over a month ago. I’m also not sure if they regulate the water.

  10. Logan “deficit” as of 12/31/2015 = -8.97″
    Logan “deficit” as of 1/1/2016 = -0.11″

    What a “difference” a new year makes.

    1. Ha….I read twice thinking I was missing something.

      Why does it revert to zero? Doesn’t make sense to me.

  11. Really a nice day!! 37.3 degrees, in the feels a tad warmer. Still would like my 40’s and even 50 back. 🙂

  12. I know many people are out of Christmas mode already but for me I still play the music etc. through January 6. I finally, after all these years, got to listen to the entire “Holiday Harmony” album by America, which was produced by another legend, Andrew Gold. This is a magical combo for this album. The entire album is available on a YouTube play list…

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLKFCCsm84ak_0V6k9cpPTO3F03O9asEw2

    At the very least, sample one song from it, “White Christmas”, which sounds like a holiday extension of their classic song “Tin Man”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHf7gfyIaMU

    1. Very nice TK. Not out of Christmas mode here but will start to take a few decorations down tomorrow. However, I replace Christmas with winter which can be hard to tell apart 🙂

  13. 12z GFS not quite there yet but getting a little better idea of the timing of the system for late next week.

  14. It is a rainorama next weekend on 12z GFS
    There is a snow threat around the 14th of the month with a low going south of us. It strengthens well east of here.

        1. Very important to note that just because it’s Winter, a storm tracking to the south does not automatically mean snow. I know you know that, but it’s a good lesson. 🙂

  15. Both GFS and CMC rainorama next weekend UGH!!!
    CMC does have system around 12th with snow GFS does not. GFS has another system with snow a few days later. Too bad the low strengthens well east of here.

  16. I like what the models are hinting at IMO. 🙂 🙂

    The amount of snow we got last year had enough to go around for this winter, and NEXT!!! Driving around the turnpike lake is still all water, I would estimate at this time 100% water. Something tells me it’s going to take a couple a really cold nights to start a thin layer. From such a warm December I would think water temp is in the mid and upper 30’s still.

    1. Unless we have an incredible cold stretch sometime this or next month it will be very hard to get the larger bodies of water to freeze completely this Winter. Too mild a start. Last year we were mild to start, but not nearly as mild, and we had plenty of cold in January leading to the record cold February to really freeze things up!

  17. I hope the EURO’s depiction of a low in the medium range doesn’t play out.

    It would give more precip to the flood ravaged areas.

    2. Excellent. I just made a post about too many details getting in the way of the overall picture…

  19. Tweet from Ed Vallee
    Looking at newest data, leaning wet versus white for for the 1/9 event. Lots of Pacific influence across the CONUS.

  20. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahn
    2 possible items of wiintry nterest – both next weekend. Nice signal on Euro Ensembles.

  21. Saw a local news station today, think it was necn, it’s saying a rain event for Boston, but ski areas may get snow

    2. That would just be a graphic on their long range because they have to fill it with something. It may turn out dry next weekend.

  22. GFS had been leading the pack for a stretch in terms of forecasting better timing than other models, but as Matt recently noted, it is not doing as well. I suspect it’s having trouble resolving the amplitude of either the polar or subtropical jet stream, or possibly both.

    I am more inclined to think the late week threat is weaker and faster, passing mostly to the south, with the energy associated with the southern jet stream taking that route while the northern stream energy remains back over the Upper Midwest.

    Then, the GFS’s depiction of an OTS January 10-11 system and a snow threat January 14 probably turns out to be one system featuring a variety of precipitation about January 12-13.

  23. Ed Vallee: Wet.
    Ryan H.: White.

    I cannot help thinking that personal bias plays into some of these communications this far in advance.

    If I try hard enough, I can probably make a case for a storm of Sweet & Low. 😛

    Compare some of these models run to run. It’s hard to find all that much consistency. This is a STRONG signal to look at the big picture and stop worrying about details of each run. From a forecasting stand point, that’s a waste of time.

    1. Thanks tk 🙂

      You are the best, and I always think Twitter is bias, I saw a tweet just 5 min ago saying, snow and ice is coming!!! Then when I looked further into it, it was basically a fake Twitter acct.

  24. 18z GFS slight improvement still. Now it needs to move the southern low a little faster, a little further south, and keep it a little weaker, and hold the northern low back a few hundred miles west of where it has it on the 9th and make it a little weaker as well.

    If it’s truly on the right track it should start to show a system for January 12-13.

  25. I would be more excited for storminess if the Sub-Tropical jet became more amplified. Split flow with polar jet dominating (Cold/Dry) for the foreseeable future. Clippers could be interesting.

  26. I was just looking at daylight, and daylight will be 46 min’s longer in just 28 days. And in just 6 weeks (February 14th) daylight will be 1hr 15 min’s longer with a sunrise of 6:42am and a sunset of 5:23pm. 🙂

      1. And the February before that. Kind of glad it happens that way. Very predictable and gives one a sense of security on this small globe we sit on as it floats through space… 😉

        1. Today is the best positive of all.

          What day is it?”, asked Winnie the Pooh
          “It’s today,” squeaked Piglet
          “My favorite day,” said Pooh”

          Think about it 🙂

  27. it looks to me the models are trying to say that the weaker the low pressure system is over the lakes the better chance of snow.
    stronger system over great lakes means rain. as the transfer of energy goes from coastal to lakes, (sat/sun storm)
    Latest gfs looks like it wants to put a 962mb storm right off our coast… imagine the coastal problems. the heavy rain east of i95. heavy snowfall outside of 495. Rain to snow inside of 495. Just saying the fantasy storm of the gfs. Just if it moves a tad further south

    but all the models have been moving everything around. Something at least looks interesting. first storm for the weekend looks like its getting weaker in general and smaller in comparison to that of the early week. but this actually is a good thing to keep the colder air in place….?we shall see

    canadian for early next week storm shows a 992mb storm

    way out and much can change unfortunately could mean nothin happens Just fun to look at. Early week storm could be solid snow if we were in last winters pattern 😛

    1. at least is going to be cold for snow making, I plan on going skiing next weekend, so I hope the storm does not happen or is snow, one of the two, just no rain

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