Monday Forecast

132 Comments

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)…
Arctic air and Cape Cod / Nantucket ocean-effect snow showers start out the week today, and the cold continues Tuesday as the snow showers end. High pressure moves overhead with moderating temperatures midweek and then by the end of the week one low goes out far south of us while a second system approaches from the southwest.
TODAY: Variably cloudy east coastal MA with snow showers possible Cape Ann and snow showers likely from the South Shore through Cape Cod and Nantucket with accumulations of a coating to 2 inches except locally up to 5 inches outer Cape Cod along with blowing snow. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with snow showers diminishing far eastern areas and mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 5-10 interior, 10s coast. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to 0 interior, 0-10 elsewhere.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)…
A period of unsettled weather with temperatures near to above normal. Current timing suggests an insignificant storm of snow or mix to rain early January 9 followed by partial clearing later, another round of mix to rain later January 10 into January 11, and a third risk of precipitation later January 12 into January 13. Temperatures, though variable, will average near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)…
Mainly fair and colder early to mid period with a storm threat possible very late in the period.

132 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK… What’s with the light snow out my way this morning? Blossoming pretty well on radar. Totally unexpected.

  4. Skins vs. Packers. Matchup of two historic franchises!! I actually think the skins have a fighting chance the way the pack are playing. The Skins are also one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs.

    1. I am not sure who actually won that game, I do not think many people want to see the sea hawks coming They are like the 2010 Giants but better. My gut is saying seattle will win next weekend. I agree with the skins having a very good chance at beating the pack.

  5. Its going to be hard seeing all this storminess being wasted, I just do not like the set up for any of those chances….
    There seems to be no cold high pressure to the north to supply the storms with cold air.

      1. one the fact that these people should be considered terrorists.
        two this is a a wildlife refuge so I do not like how they are taking a refuge.
        three if environmentalists did this to the hunting organization or any other thing that goes against the environment they would be arrested or harassed and treated as eco terrorists …

        If someone goes to the head quarters of the NRA they would be arrested on the spot.
        So yeah these idiots need to be arrested and trialed as terrorists.

        1. If these people are terrorists then our country was founded by terrorists. If you honestly believe state run media outlets then that’s the first issue. As they say…believe none of what you hear and half of what you see. You can expect more of these incidents in the future…if you understand (and appreciate) our history it all makes sense.

  9. Good morning and thank you for the Monday AM update TK.

    Ahh, so then I did see a few flakes on the way in this morning. 😀

    Still suffering from the post-game blues. I do NOT like what I saw yesterday.
    I still can’t figure it out. I’ll leave it at that. We’re onto…..

  10. Snowing lightly in north Smithfield RI with a heavy coating on the ground. Didn’t see this coming this far inland.

  12. Just took a peek at the models. Ho hum, is all I can say.
    NO agreement among the big 3, none whatsoever. So there you go.

    re: Snow today
    Again, models are all over the place. Some bring snow up to Boston, while others
    confine it to South Shore.

    Here is an interesting snow map from the HRRR, good through 8PM this evening:

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016010410/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    Wondering if that inland strip is from the convergence TK mentioned or not?

    1. It’s a cape storm and that’s where it will stay 2-4 possible. As far as game the pats are extremely banged up and have no offensive line and unfortunately not coming into the playoffs in good shape at all. Injuries have taking a huge toll on this team , huge.

  13. Thank you tk 🙂

    How much rain are you thinking this weekend? And will reach reach 50 degrees this weekend? Thank you!!

  14. Thank you, TK.

    Nice chill in the air. Glad to see that the Cape gets their bout of snow early this year. Would love to be in Truro today watching the snow. Alas.

    Hadi, Your Skins have more than a fighting chance. If we think the Patriots have lost something on offense, check out the Packers’ stats the last 8 games. It’s mostly an ugly picture. And, I’m not high on the Packers’ defense. Early prediction: Redskins 26 – 14 over Packers.

    Unfortunately, I have little or no faith in the Patriots. I think they’ll lose in two weeks time. I used to have blind faith in them. Now, my confidence level is low. Brady looks tired and beaten (can’t blame him – O-line stinks), no running game, problems on special teams, injuries, defense that’s mostly sputtered after a great first half of the season, and coaching decisions that leave one wondering what’s going on.

    1. Of the 4 out the last 6 games lost by the Pats,
      they clearly could have won ALL of them, but certainly 3.

      Coaching decisions have been baffling to say the least and the effort out there?
      Hmm WHAT effort. Save for a few players, there hasn’t been any. The defense
      couldn’t pull my GrandMother out of her grave and tackle her for crying out loud. (Purposeful lame language to keep it clean).

      Is it just all of the injuries catching up with them? OR, as I suspect, something
      else is going on?

      I tend to agree with Joshua re: Pats chances in 2 weeks. You need
      some positive momentum going into the playoffs. Did you see any of that?
      Afraid not. This does NOT look good. How are they going to turn the switch
      now? I suppose if it can be done, the Pat’s could do it, but it doesn’t look
      good to me. SAD, very sad.

      I was SCREAMING at the TV yesterday. Run, run, run and yet another run.
      Brady threw 5 passed in the 1st 1/2 and 1 or 2 were “shovel” passes.
      What’s up with that crap???????

      They had ZERO chance with that Poorly planned piss-poor game plan!!!

      👿 👿 :twisted; 😈

      1. I said it awhile back that injuries could be the thing that derails the pats going deep, how can one argue against that . Will the off week help sure it will but will it be enough I don’t think so . Well you might say they need to play the game right , yes but how much confidence do you have in them right now . Historically pats always struggle in Miami always , but against this Miami team this season really. I would love to see my favorite team go all the way but honestly how can you feel good about them. Injuries big part of it but for sure not all of it.

        1. The Pats do not put blame on anything but the fact that they didn’t play well. I’m happy following their lead. Injuries are a huge part of the game. Many other teams have them as well.

          1. Love the pats but I’m sorry it’s mostly injury related and an unhealthy team can’t go the distance in this league. Of course this is my opinion and would love to be wrong . How is Brady going to be limping in the pocket if he still is sprained?

            1. It is what great’s rise to. There is a history of greats in every line (not just sports) doing just that. I guarantee they are not allowed to make excuses.

  16. I think the Patriots will be ok …..

    After the bye, they can only play the Bengals, Texans or the Chiefs.

    I think Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, which takes care of the Bengals and then the Steelers go into Denver and beat Peyton Manning and company.

    Who are the starting QB’s for the Texans or the Chiefs ? I couldn’t tell you …

    Steelers at Patriots for AFC Championship. Now, whether the Patriots can beat Pittsburgh, I don’t feel 100% confident of that.

  17. Brian Hoyer for the Texans Alex Smith for the Chiefs.
    Steelers defense is not the best and Deangelo Williams may not play against Bengals which is a huge loss for the Steelers offense. They lost Laveon Belle earlier in the year. With that said I could see them beating the Bengals. The Bengals can’t perform on the big stage even when they had a healthy Andy Dalton at QB.
    Seahawks and Chiefs to me are the two dangerous of the wild card teams.
    Hadi I think your Redskins have a good shot at beating the Packers. Packers are not coming into the postseason playing well and Redskins coming in with momentum.

  18. Good tweet from senior meteorologist Fred Campagna at WTNH here in CT.
    A solid coating of snow on the ground, and the models still don’t believe it’s snowing. Yep, it’s a Monday
    This referring to the snow falling in eastern parts of CT which no model was showing. How can we believe in model for the weekend and early next week with POTENTIAL unsettled weather when the models missed this.

    1. Always nice when a surprise snow event occurs. I remember this happening in January 1997. Not a snowy January by any stretch, but we had one surprise `snowstorm’ that caught everyone off guard. Wound up with about 5 inches of fluff in Brookline.

  23. Arod… These flakes are unrelated to ocean-effect. They are being triggered by an inversion’s moisture being lifted slightly by the low level wedge of cold. If you check the radar loop you will see those inland echoes drifting differently than the ocean snow showers.

    2. Thank you Scott. I didn’t have a chance to view yesterday’s but just viewed this one in it’s entirety.

      Very nicely done.

      Still not impressed with storm potential. We shall see.

  27. Its 2F in Burlington, VT ….

    Interesting line of snowshowers diving southwestward from eastern tip of Cape Ann to Provincetown.

    Lots of dry air advecting in. Dewpoints crashing, dewpoint depressions rising.

  28. It’s still way too early to throw in the towel for the snow chances this weekend and early next week. TK pretty much nailed the idea of the first piece of energy getting strung out which is now consistently showing as such on the GFS. The temperatures will be marginal, but maybe just cold enough for snow. The One thing I found encouraging for the first piece of energy is the the fact that both the freezing lines for the 850 and 500 thicknesses were close, with the 500 being near the MA/CT border and the 850 a bit farther north. GFS is still flip flopping positioning on the storm following that, but there is more time for that to work itself out

  29. That light snow that was moving in from the West has made it to Boston, while
    the stuff moving in from the Ocean has not (at least not yet).

    2. Those 2 different snows are occurring at different levels. If the did meet (and they won’t), nothing would come of it.

    4. I seem to be under it right now. Really light stuff that is blowing around more than anything.
      Interesting set up with SW flow aloft and some low level moisture being picked up off the coast. All of that combined with very cold air, and you get snow showers.

    1. Nice map, thanks for sending. That will change a little today. I think CC and Islands get some accumulating snow. One noticeable hole is just west of North Adams, Mass., along the NY/Mass. border. Nothing there, but plenty of snow east and northeast of that area.

  34. Boston Harbor Buoy, 16 nautical miles out in the harbor ….

    12:50pm surface wind is NNE (020) ………

  35. I’d guess our visibility is 1 to 1.5 miles in a steady, light snow.

    The ground is whitened and the streets are starting to get covered.

  36. I actually enjoy this type of snow, it’s light, it’s really not accumulating, Charlie type snow lol 🙂

  38. Steady light snow falling for about an hour.
    A feather dusting of snow on the ground. Sure looks nice out there.
    I give today a hardy thumbs up!!

  39. Too bad a class is coming in, in a few minutes. LOL

    Going to call it for the first time this season that I have seen.

    Visibility under 1/4 mile, S+ !!!!!

    That green echo is for real, wow !!!!!!!!!

  40. Wish I could be underneath that band right now.
    Hoping for changes with the weekend and early next week systems.

  41. It’s just been Charlie snow here today as well. Pretty. Daughter said they sanded Uxbridge area this am. By the time she headed out at 8:30, driving was fine.

      1. Daughter said she thought some areas were not sanded and that might have led to the slick roads. I believe one or two others on here said the same for your (Charlie’s) area also. Thanks, North!

  42. Not much intensity, just mainly light and flurry-like. Not even a widespread feather dusting quite yet, isolated to scattered areas of feather dusting would be more like it.

  43. SNOW still flying around here. Nothing heavy of course, just a steady light to very light snow falling and blowing about.

  44. Plymouth looks like the jackpot area. Haven’t we heard this before – winter of 2015? May be some pretty good snowfall amounts across the Cape later today and tonight. With high ratio’s wouldn’t rule out several inches in spots, and up to 5 perhaps.

  45. Craziness in Marshfield.

    Busses 1/2 hr late.

    Rte 139 is crawling.

    A good inch, maybe 2.

    All flying horizontally, blowing around.

    I’ll post a picture to facebook once I get home, which may be a while.

  46. Good afternoon.
    Snowing a bit hard here at the office. Visibility perhaps 2 or 2.5 miles as
    opposed to 5 or 6 miles. 😀

    1. No sooner did I get the words out, and it let up again. Oh well.

      More Potent radar echoes just moved oh so close to Boston.
      Seems like most of the South Shore getting this.

      Not much happening on the Cape. NWS miscalculated where bands
      would set up. (At least so far. Perhaps later the Cape gets in on the action)

      1. I think later this afternoon on Cape. Most of the action will be in the evening and at night on the Cape, I believe. But, I could be wrong.

  47. Snowing steady in the Halifax/Pembroke/Kingston area. A few accidents on route 3 in the Duxbury/Kingston area.

  48. Must say I’m kind of surprised because what’s happening now on the southshore was to be localized to the cape only. My son is snowboarding in the back yard . Does the southshore now get included and possibly just brush the cape , we shall see

  49. Not much happening at the moment, judging by radar we r seeing lots of lulls west and south of Boston, looks like its reorganizing down to the cape

  50. Seems like it has stopped here. If it is doing anything, it is so light that it is
    difficult to detect. 😀

  51. Seems to moving into the upper Cape, Bourne, Sandwich and parts of
    Barnstable. Most of South Shore from Quincy South are in on at least part
    of the action.

  53. There may be some intense squalls over the Cape this evening and overnight. Warm ocean water, cold land temperatures. Recipe for ocean effect snow, I think.

  54. First snowfall in our new house. My living room has six windows and I am loving every minute of watching it fall.

    1. That just makes me smile. I am picturing your view in my minds eye and wish I were there to enjoy with you.

  55. Was it Tom or TK or both who predicted that much of our snow this winter would come via ocean effect?

    Today’s snowflakes are the first I have seen this season since last week’s event it was sleeting by the time I woke up. 🙂

    1. It was not I and that won’t be the case. However, there may be a few more ocean-effect events before Winter is done.

      1. I remember a time in the late 90’s that we were due for a sizable stor, in the afternoon and evening and we already had 6 plus inches on the south shore from ocean effect. That morning it was 5, so we definitely had a good differential going on with the ocean temp. Believe it or not it ended up switching to rain toward the end of the actual storm.

  56. This was one of my worst Day 1 forecasts in a long time. Completely underestimated the persistence of the cloud cover and the light snow unrelated to ocean-effect. HORRENDOUS PERFORMANCE! 😛

      1. I completely agree, JPD. But The greats are always hard on themselves. That is why they are great 🙂

  57. Tk we received a feather dusting, but it’s gone, did it evaporate? How does that happen?It couldn’t ha e melted. Thank you!!

      1. Yeah not here, we had more 5-6 hours ago, but has disappeared the last 5-6hrs, and no sun, and below 32.

  58. My wife said temps really dropped, it’s like bitterly cold, ugh!!!’ Where’s the ugh meter??

  59. Temp 13 down from 23 earlier. Cold enough wind when I was our earlier I figured I should have worn something under my sweatshirt. Felt like snow. Felt like winter. Ahhhhhhhhhhh❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

    1. Glad I don’t live in a place that’s old, we had many quakes with the old place, no longer the case. 🙂

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