Tuesday Forecast

101 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)…
Arctic chill today, and this time there WILL be sunshine in most of the region, although some ocean-effect snow showers will continue over Cape Cod and the Islands, gradually diminishing. High pressure that builds across the region for one more very cold night tonight then slips offshore with fair weather and not as cold for midweek. Wednesday nights low temperatures will be similar to today’s high temperatures, giving you an idea of the moderation upcoming, which will continue into late week, and set the stage for the first of 2 disturbances coming, the first of which will pass through from the southwest early Saturday with light mix/rain.
TODAY: Clouds and snow showers Cape Cod / Islands with some additional light snow accumulation likely. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs 20-27. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Clearing Cape Cod / Islands. Clear elsewhere. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind light NW.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late night mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with light mix/rain possible morning. Partial clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)…
Second of two disturbances brings a chance of rain later January 10 as mild air dominates. Windy, cooler, drier January 11. A system from the southwest brings a chance of light precipitation late on January 12 to early January 13 followed by drier and colder later January 13 through January 14.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)…
Mainly dry weather. Looks like only weak systems may bring scattered rain/snow showers while more important storms miss to the south as a split jet stream flow dominates and the streams stay separated. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

101 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Snowing lightly.

    Roads have been treated overnight and are in much better shape than they were yesterday, mid afternoon.

  4. Well had to turn on the oil for the first time this season. Looking like I can switch back to the AC tomorrow for another week or so!

  6. Good morning and thank you for the Tuesday update TK.

    Beautiful morning as I walked into the office with my coat unzipped.

    AHH refreshing.

    Who said it was bitterly cold. Gorgeous Winter morning. Could be the coldest all
    season the way things are going.

    Near miss for the ocean snow up here. Nice little Ocean Effect event down on the South Shore and the Cape. Anyone have any snow totals? Tom?

    Have a great day all.

    1. Only about an inch in Plymouth and Halifax. It was still snowing steady in Plymouth when I arrived for work this morning.

      1. Thank you. Looking at the radars and video on the News
        I would have thought there would be some 6 inch totals around. 😀

        1. Actually I lied, I didn’t take a good look when I got to work but it looks to be about 2-3 inches in this area of Plymouth.

  7. All of this hype about a stormy period coming up with possible snow storms is
    a bunch of hooey!!! Blah blah blah is about all that is happening.

    1. I refuse to hype what I am unsure of. I even refuse to hype what I AM sure of. Leave that to the”pro’s”. 😉

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Gosh, the mets now resort to overhype all of the time. Not, TK, as we know. But, practically all other mets and of course all the weather channels on TV and the internet. This is Boston. It is supposed to be cold in January. 9F at 8am is NOT that cold. Not nearly as cold as it was last year in February! Goodness. Weather.com even has a silly special weather statement on wind chill. Sure, one should bundle up and use common sense. But, please spare me the warnings unless it’s below zero and gusty. I apologize for the rant, but our society is like an overprotective parent sometimes.

    1. Well said! Agree totally. Saw a headline yesterday about the dreaded polar vortex “invading” the country haha.

    2. Completely Agree. It’s like it’s NEVER been 9 degrees in Boston before????
      GIVE ME A BREAK!!! It’s Winter!!!!!!!

      1. Didn’t they cancel school last year for temps warmer than this??? Guess they don’t care about the kids as much this time around ha.

          1. It was a lot colder and IMHO was an excellent decision. Framingham didn’t cancel and two kids at bus stops had to go to hospital for minor frost bite.

            1. You think they cancel school in like
              Fairbanks, Alaska? I think not, but then
              they are used to the cold and we are NOT.

              I agree with the cancelling, but it goes to show what one is used to experiencing.

                1. It is kind of like the south shutting down for an inch of snow. As you say, we are prepared to deal with the norm. IMHO that is how it should be.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Do not know what our low was but is 7.4 now.

    With regard to the roof popping, the only roof we hear pop regularly is the newest part of the house and is just 20 years old. The second roof is also the second newest and will pop next. We rarely hear the oldest roof pop. I believe last year was the first time it popped in the 37 years we have lived here.

    In part, it has to do with the extreme cold on the outside and the warm air inside. Our heat is on fairly regularly in this particular addition for the first time. The roof does not have either snow or ice on it but it is a cathedral ceiling so heat gets to the roof area quickly. It sure is loud. I agree with you, TK, that the reason it is occurring at a temp above what it typically would be is because we have gone from unusual warm to cold very quickly.

  12. Love this tweet from meteorologist Steven DiMartino of nynjpaweather
    In fact, I’m calling on all weather enthusiast to get away from those models for 24 hours. You all need to chill the hell out or go outside

    I hope this does happen. Again from meteorologist Steven DiMartino of nynjpaweather
    The progression of this pattern is evolving perfectly. The snow will come, just stop driving yourself nuts with each model run.

    ï…‘

  13. Longshot, Your TV Weather Met

    Hi everyone! Today millions of people in the northeast will in the path of bitterly cold weather. A study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

    One has to remember that this kind of cold can cause frostbite, hypothermia, and even death. So keep this in mind as you leave the house today, but don’t leave your house if you do not have to. Stay tuned to WXY and we’ll keep updated all day on these dangerous weather conditions.

  14. polar vortex should not even be used for the public unless its explaining exactly what it is and what it does

    1. It’s going to SUCK us in and KILL us all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      It’s the end of the WORLD!!!

  15. Though we’ve had continuous snow globe snow (big flakes with lots of space btwn them), I’m not sure much of a new accumulation has occurred.

      1. 1 inch in my neighborhood at sea level and closer to 2 inches where our school complex is, probably about 30 to 40 feet above sea level. I’m pretty sure there was some extra lift from the change in elevation, because the difference in accumulation is noticeable.

        I’ll see if I can post a photo from Facebook to here later on.

  16. I think next week’s batch of cold will have more impact on the Upper Midwest, and less on us. This said, the kind of cold states like Minnesota will experience next week will be frigid, even by my standards. There may be a day or two next week in which cities such as Minneapolis do not get above 0F during the day, with gusty winds to make it much less bearable than what we experienced last night and today.

    I am mindful of exposure to the elements. Vicki makes a good point that we do not want children or others to get frostbite waiting for a bus that might not show up. My issue is that today’s cold – and last night’s – doesn’t meet the standard of frigid and life-endangering unless one is under-dressed and exposed to the cold for prolonged periods of time.

    I am reminded of my friend’s wife comment when she arrived in the U.S. from Germany a few years ago. She told me that was afraid to watch the local news. She said it made her anxious: “They only report bad things, like murders, fires, and weather that’s going to potentially kill you.” She went on to say, “Boston is safe, I feel comfortable here, the weather is usually not extreme at all. But, in summer I’m sometimes warned about being outside and they tell me to make sure I have enough water with me at all times, in winter, they sometimes tell me not to go outside because I could get frostbite.” I certainly understood where she was coming from. Our local news is often anxiety-producing. And some of our mets add fuel to the fire by their excessive use of warnings.

  17. I wonder if El Niño could help us for a snow event during the Jan 10 – 17 time period …

    AO forecast to go quite negative. NAO forecast to go below neutral. So, it’s understandable why the pattern implies colder and dry.

    The storminess looks projected to remain well to our south and east

    However, the models have been continually underestimating the strength of the SE ridge. How many times lately has a storm been projected to our south several days out, only to end up being inside runners.

    The projected drops of the AO and NAO shouldn’t allow for inside runners, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the storminess shown way to our S and E ends up closer to th coast.

    Given the struggles the models are having with EL Niño, if a snow threat were to happen around Jan 15th, I bet the models wouldn’t get a signal on it much before the 10th.

  18. This is our 11th winter in Lunenburg. Surprisingly, it has been the best year by far for sledding on the hill behind our house.

    The cover of snow and sleet that we received a week ago is still there and gets harder and more slippery with every melt/freeze cycle. It is just perfect for the old Flexible Flyer type sleds. The toboggan is another story!

    1. Sounds like tons of fun. How great you have a hill right behind your house. I had some run ins with trees on toboggans so always preferred the Flexible Flyers and nothing beats them. I wish I still had mine.

  19. I think we see a pretty potent system around here 1/10-1/11. Most of the 12z guidance except the GFS is trending towards a stronger storm. Most likely it passes over or just west of us, regardless of track should be a rain event if it occurs.

    Beyond that, generally agree with TK. After the coming warm-up we go back to cooler for a little bit in the 6-10 day range, although I also very much agree with Joshua that the next cold blast, while it will be major, will largely not be ours. A couple chilly days similar to these past ones, but nothing like what the Midwest will get. Beyond that, looks to me like a toned-down version of the December pattern re-emerges for at least the last 10 days of this month, with generally above average temperatures and a lack of major storms.

    1. Less than one inch of snow heading into February in Boston? If we have a early / warm spring, I wonder if we can beat the record.

  20. Ocean temps are ranging between 45-50 degrees still, of course 50 south 45 north 🙂
    Even though it’s just 20 min’s later I could tell yesterday when it was still a little light out close to 5pm

  22. PM thoughts…

    I LOVE days like this. Very cold, but it’s not all that windy. In fact the wind did not really get anywhere close to where I had forecast it to be. Halcyon Day for sure, though technically they are more of a November / December thing, especially December, but I consider January to be ok for them as well.

    Overall pattern… No real changes in the overall idea I’ve had. We knew we’d get cold at times, and cold shots will be around through mid month, but there are already strong hints of a “January thaw” for the back part of the month. Showing up more and more on ensembles. Not back to the December pattern, but we’ll still be in a fairly strong El Nino at that point, and it will show. I see no signs of major snow in the foreseeable future, although parts of the region may get something Tuesday night and early Wednesday next week that may have flakes involved in it. The weekend systems look like mainly rain, with the first being fairly weak and fast-moving and the second one being a little stronger and still fairly fast-moving.

    Once again many media outlets bit way too hard on a “big pattern change” when in fact it’s a rather mediocre one, or an adjustment of the El Nino influenced pattern we’ve been in for quite some time. We saw that shift coming but no way was it going to turn into a giant cold snap. No way. However, it was the basis for quelling people’s fears that the ice sculptures would be melted before they could even start carving them. No need to overreact…about anything weather-related.

    1. To be fair, TK, you love every day. Sure makes life a lot sweeter, doesn’t it:) I do like to hear why you like them, though, because I always agree.

      1. 😀

        Well you got me there. But I tend to react like whatever day I’m talking about is my favorite, because I guess they are just all my favorite. 😉

  23. TK, thanks. If your thoughts verify we could be headed for record territory again in terms of snowfall. Only this time the low end of the scale. Sort of like the Red Sox. Win it all one year. Then become cellar dwellers a year later. Of course, February could give us a lot of snow, and March, too. But with January unlikely to deliver the window of time for snow shortens. We’ll see how it all pans out. Wouldn’t that be something. Over 110 inches in 2014-2015, and, say, 4 inches in 2015-2016.

    1. We won’t set any records. February snow will be above normal. Staying with 25-35 inches for Boston, about half of it in one storm.

        1. I have not changed any thinking from my mid November post with my Winter forecast.

          Overall, below normal snow and near to above normal temps.

          35-45 inches total snow for her, 25-35 inches for Boston.

          February will be a snowy month but nothing like last year.

    2. As I remember it, nothing happened snow-wise last year until Jan 24th. Then Mother Nature took over relentlessly. Can’t see any scenario where that would happen again, but a somewhat snowy February is likely.

  24. maybe it will be like a few years ago when we had 5 weeks of non stop winter storms and came out around average/above average

    1. Won’t happen like that this time, but maybe that pattern’s baby brother is on the way.

          1. It was one of the accuweather mets, don’t know which one, not a popular one, I know it’s wasn’t Henry Margisity, bc he would never say that. I’m sure it wasn’t reliable nevertheless just wanted to know what you thought. It is far away.

  25. Tk is it possible that ocean temps never go lower than 40 hence sea breezes March-May won’t be as bad? Instead of having temps in the 40’s for seabreeze temps, will they be more in the 50’s?

    1. I don’t think they will stay that high. February will take them down to the upper 30s.

      As for sea breezes, that wouldn’t necessarily mean less-biting sea breezes, because we could have a very cloudy March which would end up limiting any warming. You also have to take into account ocean currents. You can have above normal water temps in a cold pattern and vice-versa depending on the weather pattern and the ocean circulation pattern.

  26. Charlie… One thing I may have to change from what I said earlier is the weekend temps. We actually do have a shot at 50+ on Sunday pending the track and strength of the 2nd weekend disturbance.

    Temps will be near to above normal tomorrow, then above normal Thursday through Monday.

  27. The back woods of the property are awfully dry. Normally several inches of ice covering the muddy areas of the woods and a spring flowing through. Currently about 2 inches of frozen sleet/snow mixture over dry ground and the spring has not flowed for a few weeks even months. Going to be a lot of red flags this spring!

    1. We’ll have to see what happens to the February pattern. That is, does it linger, or transition? Too early to tell.

  29. I was wondering the same thing Philip. Two months of at least normal snowfall would hopefully stall off a serious problem for a few weeks in April/May time frame.

  30. Check out this headline haha:

    “METEOROLOGISTS: ‘DARTH NINO’ TIES RECORD FOR STRONGEST SEEN”

    1. Wow, the strongest El Nino since 1950. 😉 Who’d have ever thought it would happen. I wonder when we’ll have an El Nino stronger than any of the big ones that occurred before 1950 before we knew what that cyclic water warming was there and gave it a name. 🙂

  31. While the El Nino riddled pattern remains in place, it is constantly getting moderated by seasonal affects. Just look at the daily highs last month, the amount of days above 50.

    Now…We have not hit 50 since Dec. 27th. 50+ may happen this Sunday but then we quickly return back to season norms. Even looking further ahead, 50+ is difficult to find, if anything below average temperatures is the outlook. I think the next couple of weeks will put a large dent in what the pattern wants to be but it is the coldest part of the year. Models will continue to struggle, so 1 week at a time really.

  33. TK thanks for your thoughts above. Love your thoughts and explanations on the pattern and outlook. Thanks to Scott and WXWatcher too for your thoughts. It will be interesting to see how the next 2 months evolve.

  34. Hour 96 EURO
    Low pressure over the lakes, low pressure in the gulf

    Hour 120
    Low pressure over north Carolina

    Hour 144
    low pressure to the north of Maine.

    EPS

    hour 96 two areas of low pressure just like Euro one over the lakes, one over the gulf
    Hour 120 much weaker than what the Euro is showing and is over western Ny state.
    hour 144 similar location to that of the Euro just north of maine.

    I can not really tell how the storm travels to the end location between the ensembles eps model and the euro but either way there is not a cold high to the north and seems to be a rain storm GFs does not even show it as it keeps it as a split flow.

    who knows what is going to happen, all the models are saying different things
    Honestly the most consistant is all of them, just that they are all saying different things with positioning and with strength, if it even happens. etc. if it does happen its rain with almost no cold air to really work with

  35. Average snowfall for January at Logan = 13″

    TK – Any chance we can squeeze out maybe 1/2 of average or will we have to settle for another freak ocean effect fluff?

  37. Vicki…I hope your grandson will appreciate Barry’s school visit. Let us know how it went. Too bad TV mets didn’t make school visits back in my day. A visit from Don Kent or Bob Copeland would have been very memorable for me. 🙂

    1. I agree. I would have loved it also. I want to find a topic that he and I can read about that would work for an 8 yr old so he can maybe ask a question. At the very least it gives him a chance to learn more

    2. I remember seeing Bob Copeland on the beach in Welfleet when I was a young kid. I had no clue who he was but my parents were all giddy about seeing him. Still have the photo they took. 🙂

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