Wednesday Forecast

100 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)…
No significant changes. High pressure in control keeps it dry with moderating temperatures the next few days. A weakening disturbance passes by early Saturday and then a stronger low tracks northwest of the region Sunday, making the weekend more unsettled.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late night mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with light mix/rain possible morning. Partial clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)…
Windy, colder, drier January 11. A system from the southwest brings a chance of light precipitation late on January 12 to early January 13 followed by drier and colder later January 13 through January 15.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)…
Watch for risk of rain or snow around the middle of the period, otherwise mainly dry weather with variable temperatures.

100 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. I think any mix Saturday will be confined to higher elevated areas and in thinking Sunday could be soaking rains with temps in the mid 50s. Lot warmer working outside this morning compared to yesterday , life in the trades.

  6. Good morning and at least temporarily say GOOD-BYE to Winter.

    EL STINKO rules!!

    Weak system = blah
    Stronger System 1/10-1/11 = Cutter
    After that? tis a mystery. Based on trends, it also will be a cutter. 😈 👿

    2. Mild rain event January 18 would be the most likely scenario but that one may have low level cold to work with if the setup is right. Based on recent model performance “most likely scenario” does not carry much weight.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    I have an odd question. Why is it that on the North American continent we don’t have stationary Highs. Our Highs are always on the move, and when there’s ridging (now) they slide beneath us and warm things up (steering in SW wind). I know that there are relatively stationary Highs in Asia (not permanently, but for long stretches), and Scandinavia. So, for instance, if it gets cold in Holland, which is fairly rare, it stays that way for 10-14 days with virtually no change in wind direction, temperature, etc … They call it the Scandinavian High that stays more or less in place for 10-14 day periods, steering easterly winds to the Continent. This is both a summer and winter occurrence. We never get stability of this kind. I sometimes miss the stability, like right now I wish we would just have continuous cold, bright, crisp weather for a while. Alas.

    1. Directly related to size of land mass, type of land, and location. For example Greenland: Very large, very stable with moderated surface temperature. Much in contrast to what is around it. Therefore high pressure “likes” to be there. It’s all simply physics.

      1. Thanks, TK. So, high pressure areas can be stationary up north in places like Greenland. But, they traverse the lower 48 almost invariably west to east.

        The situation I described on the continent of Europe always puzzled me. Weather there tends to be much more predictable, as you know. The dominant southwesterly means that most of the time (80%) you’re dealing with passing lows to the north and west of Holland, with temperatures rather steady for long periods of time and little difference between day and night-time temps. But, on occasion the stationary high pressure area makes its appearance above Scandinavia. This results in an equally predictable pattern, say, a 10-14 day or longer period of time. It’s so predictable that they will call it a “frost period” with a definite beginning and a definite end. That is, as the high makes its appearance daytime max temps gradually go down: 48F to 42F one day, then 42F to 36F the next, then 36F to 30F the next. Then, it stays more or less stuck at 30F for days and days. Hence, the “frost period” during which temps do not go above freezing. Once the high starts its trek back east, the “thaw period” happens. Again, gradual: 30F to 36F, 36F to 42F, etc … The high gets displaced by the prevailing southwesterly and the march of Atlantic lows dominates again. Day and night-time temps do not go below freezing.

        I’m reminded of this because my kids’ mother is currently visiting town from the Netherlands. Arrived yesterday to a cold Boston. She asked me: “so, it’s going to be quite cold for a while,” to which I responded, “no, it’s going to be up and down and we’ll actually have rain and 50s this weekend.” Believe me, that’s a little baffling to a European accustomed to gradual ascent and descent of temp and weather shifts.

        1. They can also be semi-permanent south of the westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere and north of the westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere.

    1. You may be able to start with your lawn prep after next week. This may be a South Carolina winter. I know February has been advertised as the cold and snowy month, and I trust TK’s excellent judgment, but the skeptic in me has produced some doubts about whether this winter will ever truly get going. And even if it does by mid to late February, once we’re at that stage when it snows or gets cold winter faces an increasingly uphill battle. The snows tend to melt quickly, mud is an issue, ups and downs are frequent, then the seabreezes kick in giving us coastal folks raw spring weather which I am NOT a fan of at all.

      1. lol!! Nah!! Looking at late Feb in Newport/E.Greenwich Warwick areas, going north from there. Start liming, switching to fertilizing with crabgrass reducers late March. 🙂

    1. Yes, indeed. Sadly, almost everyone on Beacon Hill and in Back Bay have already jettisoned their trees. Sometimes the day after Christmas. I do NOT understand this. Christmas is a 12 day holiday. January 6th is an important in this regard.

      1. Agree. Kids tree had to go out because it was so dry. Mine is still up. Older daughter put hers on her deck cause it was dry and lights it there. My decorations are all up and I’m still listening but to Christmas music. Tomorrow is Christmas in Russia

    3. And happy La Befana! (I just learned about this from my mother in law). Thought to be the origin of filling stockings for Christmas (except it’s shoes).

  13. I apologize to WHW folks for my lengthy posts on weather in Holland and Europe. They’re of little interest to most of you, so I’ll refrain or keep them brief so I’m not filling up space with observations about climate and weather 3500 miles from our location!

    2. Keep them coming. I forecasted that area for 13 years and I’m still learning things about it from you I never figured out myself.

    1. Just came in. It feels like summer out there. I went home for lunch
      and swapped my heavy winter coat for a light spring weight jacket.

      Beach anyone?

    2. Was just thinking the same thing Tom. Saw my personal weather station’s dew point of 4F, and I know that reads high, and checking the ob sites most places are below zero. Humidities under 20%, 40+ degree dew point depressions!

  19. I have demoted myself back to my old name and promoted him to president of WHW because of this… 😉

    (Actually, the log in page is down for a few and I can’t post as WHW for a short while). 😛

    1. I hear ya but thats what’s coming warming up than colder next week, I believe Tk said awhile back that the cold this winter would be quick bursts of it not prolonged cold I think.

        1. As TK has been saying, you will have to wait until February for any significant snows. Hopefully the wait will be worth it. 😀

  21. Today January 6 is the day that the Three Wise Men arrived with their gifts for the baby Jesus. 😀

    1. It is. And our wiseman reached the baby today with a bit of help from my grandsons. It is a big day in our house. The boys have been inching them forward for 12 days.

  22. Happy New Year, everyone (six days late!)
    Little Christmas/Epiphany today (thanks, Philip!). Kids in Spain got their toys last night brought by the Magi. The Three Kings also visit Puerto Rico, I believe.
    Last night for the outdoor Christmas lights here on the Twelfth Day of Christmas.
    Daylight looked a little lighter and brighter today. Light out still at 5 pm.
    Already .55″ behind in precip through the first six days of the year. Looks like that will be wiped out by Monday.

    Peace to us all in 2016!

  23. I know most are not glad no snow, and no real cold air is in the foreseeable future, but I like it, we all know this. I will say I still believe we will be in the 25-30 inch range for snow totals at Logan. Most of this comes between Feb 10th and March 1st. 🙂

      1. Perhaps some are not happy with the lack of weather events. After all this is a weather blog. Although I don’t understand why you don’t just speak for yourself and let others speak for themselves.

        2. If I said the sky was blue you would say it was brown and black. Anything I say you are opposite. I understand it’s a weather blog, sunny weather is wonderful. 🙂 it’s gonna be ok

  25. Personally I do not think we reach 60 degrees Sunday, BUT I think some locales will certainly reach 56-57, or even 58 degrees.

  26. 20 year anniversary of the blizzard of 96. What a winter that 95-96 winter was and was the snowiest winter on record for Boston until last winter.

    2. I’ve watched them, but they r strictly rating based. They exaggerate, then back track, so many times I can’t even count whether warm or cold. No credibility

  29. Meteorologist Fred Campagna at WTNH here in CT was mentioning possible snow in the 1/16 – 1/18 time frame.

  30. I don’t put much stock in it Charlie but when you are a snow lover like I am you look out there to see if there is anything out there in the future that could be of interest.
    Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    1 thing favoring OH Valley/Northeast snow is more active Polar + Subtropical jet streams. Plenty of opportunities

    Having trouble posting the map on this tweet he posted earlier
    I find this set up for next Wednesday quite intriguing for New England…

  31. Eric says snow possible for next Wednesday but it all depends on how close it comes to the coast. More likely a fish storm for now though.

  32. 1995-96 = 107.6″

    I don’t recall the T having many issues that particular winter. I don’t believe any lines ever totally shut down if at all.

    1. 1995-1996: Cold, but not relentless record cold. Over 100 inches of snow spread out from November through April.

      2015: Relentless record cold, 4 major storms and a few moderate ones, packed into about 4 weeks, on a transportation 19 years older than the other record Winter.

      That should explain the difference. 🙂

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