Thursday Forecast

102 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)…
High pressure brings fair weather today. Onshore wind brings in clouds and a risk of drizzle and freezing drizzle Friday. A weakening disturbance passes by early Saturday and then a stronger low tracks northwest of the region Sunday, making the weekend more unsettled. Cold air mass arrives Monday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle possible. Highs in the 30s.
Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with light mix/rain possible morning. Partial clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Sun/clouds. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)…
A system from the southwest brings a chance of light precipitation late on January 12 to early January 13 followed by drier and colder later January 13 through January 16.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)…
Watch for risk of rain or snow around the middle of the period, otherwise mainly dry weather with variable temperatures.

102 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. TK, I am trying to figure the rain- snow line for skiing in NH Saturday. Either Gunstock or further north and higher at Cannon. I wonder what you think.

    1. No TK, but if it were I, Go North young man, go North.
      Cannon is far better than Gunstock. It’s worth the extra hour.
      Always loved Cannon.

      Even weather related, I for one, would chose Cannon. 😀

      1. My dad and his buddies skied Cannon a lot. His ski boots (can’t remember who made them) are in the ski museum at Cannon. I was never a fan of the mountain. If I recall, it faces same way as Wildcat and tended to have more icy conditions. But then that is a stretch for this old memory so may be wrong. I know my brother likes it .

        1. Interesting re: Ski Boots
          Cool

          Re: Orientation
          Nope, Cannon and Wild Cat do not face the same direction.

          Wild Cat More or less faces West with a view of Mt. Washington directly across

          Cannon more or less faces East with a view of Mt.
          Lafayette diagonally or so across.

          Skiied both mountains and climbed both Washington
          and Lafayette.

          Or so it is the way my memory plays it back.
          Granted I am an old timer, but my memory is pretty
          sharp on these matters. 😀

          1. Actually Cannon kind of faces a bit to the North.
            In this shot you can see rt. 93 which is headed
            North or even NW at this point.

            http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-g4ksX6g8whw/VLGoHMG50uI/AAAAAAAAkQQ/vmmLmEdjP44/s1600/cannonroute.jpg

            Wilcat actually faces more to the NorthWest

            http://www.skitown.com/gfx/maps/road/nh28r1.jpg

            http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f5tq6-ORy4s/UCMFDU28Q_I/AAAAAAAANOw/zqhl5OwcTyU/s1600/WildcatMap.jpg

            So fine tuning, Cannon faces more towards the North or NNE and WildCat faces the NW or so.

            1. I think my dad’s view was in relation to Cranmore which was his favorite mountain to ski in the area (next to Washington). Cranmore is more due west, perhaps a bit south. Cannon and Wildcat are both more north. A little bit makes a big difference. I’d love to say I can remember his reasoning but I just remember he compared the latter two and preferred the first because it had better conditions for a longer period. Now it is moot because of all the advances but perhaps back then it was real skiing 🙂

  3. Thank you, TK. I talked to Mac’s brother who lives just east of San Francisco last night. He said it has rained every day for a while and of course rains in December. They feel badly for those affected by mud slides, etc. but no one is complaining about the rain. Good they are getting it.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another Summer Day today.

    January 7th and all that is required is a light jacket. PATHETIC!!

    Looks like we had our 2 day Winter and it’s over!!!
    And it now appears that for the foreseeable future, nothing but a parade
    of Inside runners and/or Lakes Cutters. No such thing as a Coastal this year.
    YUCKORAMA!

    1. Dave, I gather you are not on board with Accu’s Bernie and Henry for possible snow sometime mid next week? At least that was what they were talking about yesterday 🙂

      1. Nope. Cutters or inside runners and we can thank
        EL STINKO for that.

        Unless, of course, with new information, the models
        do an about face.

        Frankly, I am not surprised in the least.

  5. JP Dave, It’s not nearly as bad as January 2012. It was in the 40s almost every day. We did have one `snowstorm’ (yeah right – 2 inches) on MLK weekend that made it look wintry for 2 days. But, I do think that January 2016 will turn out different from January 2012.

    1. It best get moving, because It looks mild to me.

      This talk about cold and snow was nothing but a lot of wishful thinking.

      I think TK has been tuned in all along. Can you say FEBRUARY?

      Certainly NOT January. 😀 OR at least not the first 2/3.

    1. The most disappointing of these is the inside runner for the 17th that previously looked like a nice snowstorm.

      The best chance of the above would be that #2 comes closer to the coast
      developing sooner and #3 tracks more to the East.

      AND perhaps that can happen.

      Waiting on 12Z runs.

      Will be tied up when those runs are available. Won’t have a chance to
      look until after 3PM today.

  8. Thank you tk for another update!!

    Continuing to love what the models are saying. Mostly above average with an occasional cold interlude. Now this is the kind of winter we can take, makes you wanna get out of bed, and do something, really!!!! Running errands and it’s not to bad, a little chilly, but most importantly no snow to deal with. Tk you need to have a SUPER SUPER LIKE BUTTON!!!! 🙂 enjoy the day!!!

    1. IMO I believe the 17-20th possibility is a possibility, BUT it’s just a little to mild, and any snow accumulation will be small. And that’s if it even does accumulate. It’s still out a ways out.

  9. Thanks TK
    Good tweet from meteorologist Steven DiMartino nynjpaweather
    However, with all these short waves moving around over the next several days, the models are going to be a bit wonky.

    This tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee on 1/13
    Initial thought on 1/13 clipper: redevelopment likely, just a matter of timing between a few flakes or alot of snow.

    1. I’m noticing and I agree that it’s to far out to sea, I think most mets are leaning that way. Not sure about tk’s thinking. I believe he is as well.

  10. Plenty of time for that to change.
    The key I take out of what I am seeing from the mets posting on twitter is once we get past the rainorama on Sunday is there is POTENTIAL for some wintry weather I would say from 1/13 to 1/18

    1. I would NOT count on it. We can watch it and HOPE, but tis the season
      of El Nino and El Nino is BAD for snow in these parts.

      Even the systems that looked like that have/had potential eventually evolve into an INSIDE RUNNER or A LAKES CUTTER.

      Not going to get snow out of those situations. I’m sorry, but it just isn’t looking good. We shall see what happens after this next CUTTER gets the hell out of here! I already put a BAN on cutters, but I guess no one listened. 😀

    2. The one thing that is different though, is that the AO and NAO will be negative or neutral, so there is more opportunity for resistance to the north.

      At least there should be some increased chance at resistance to an inside runner during the brief period that those teleconnections are not positive.

      I do have some hope for a colder storm during that 1/13 to 1/15 time frame.

  11. I think the window is open for snow 1/13 to 1/18 and when you get these windows to open in a strong El Nino you hope to get snow since there not open for long periods of time.

  12. And the idea that the GFS doesn’t have anything in that 1/13 to 1/15 timeframe, other than a clipper riding to our north ….. Well, that makes me even more suspicious.

    I mean, if it showed something today, 6 to 8 days in advance, it’s probably the only thing that WOULDN’T happen.

    2. Thankfully Charlie’s headed to Bermuda next week, because that storm is bearing down on the island today and tomorrow with gales and rain.

      1. Bring it on!!! Not going for vacation, running a half marathon, plus visiting family. Still should be mild 🙂

  15. I was wondering if someone would be willing to expand upon this

    “FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle possible. Highs in the 30s.
    Wind NE 5-15 MPH.”

    Not really seeing that on the major click factory weather site. Looking for timing and areas if possible. Concerned about sidewalks and roadways in the Roslindale area.

    As usual, very satisfied lurker of this wonderful blog. Thank you TK and all those that contribute forecasts, education, opinions, comic relief and passionate Pats banter.

    1. Please go with TK’s thoughts …..

      I’ll throw out there that with the very borderline temps, if not slightly above freezing, that I don’t think the pavements and sidewalks should see much ice, especially that close to Boston.

    2. I wish I could answer, but I think I fall under the comic (occasional) relief category. I would like to say that it is always nice to see a new (or occasional) poster here 🙂

    3. Lows tonight fall to the 20s. If the low clouds/drizzle get in quickly enough, surfaces are going to be near to below freezing in many areas even if the “official air temp” which is taken about 5 to 6 feet above the ground is too warm for icing.

      There will be pockets of freezing drizzle, just not everywhere.

  16. Rapid cyclogenesis definitely possible off the coast for the middle of next week. Currently modeled as too late, too far east, but if you’re looking for snow look to that potential and hope models adjust.

  17. I also see the 1/16 -1/18 as another time frame where wintry precipitation could happen.
    Move the 1/13 POTENTIAL back a little further west different outcome.

      1. Yes. AM1030, that is.

        The positioning of next week’s cold is different from what we experienced ever so briefly this week. It is diving into the middle of the northern tier of the lower 48 and will come to us in moderated form. Contrast this with cold that dives down through Quebec province (the scenario last February) with a more significant impact. Next week will be pleasantly cold, in my opinion. Upper 20s to low 30s during the day, and upper teens and low 20s at night. Nothing unusual or extreme about it.

  20. Hmmm I either jumped the gun or exercised some nice reverse psychology. 😀
    Perhaps there will be a shot between now and 1/18 or so????

    Euro for the 17th

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2016010712&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    Too WARM as depicted. Things could change and also track would still be just off shore, so dynamic cooling not out of the question. If the Euro has it, something to
    watch for sure.

    CMC for the 17th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

    GFS for the 17th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

  21. Tweet I found from Eastern Pennsylvania Weather Authority on that storm POTENTIAL for next weekend
    Strong signal for next weekend winter storm on today’s Euro and EPS. Euro came close to triple phase. But 9+ days out. Signal is there.

  22. Sorry folks, been quiet for a while but not much to be excited about lately weather wise. The way this “winter” has gone so far, I’m not getting excited for any snow storm potential until I see some real snow solutions at a maximum 4-5 days out. Anything more than that is just asking for a let down.

  23. When your a snow lover your always looking ahead and especially more so this winter the way it has been. We have seen these slivers of hope days in advance for wintry weather only to have a rainorama like we will get on Sunday.
    As I said earlier I think the window is open 1/13 to 1/18 for snow with two chances in that time period next Wednesday and next weekend.

    1. Even though I spewed doom and gloom this morning, I did, however, still
      Mention those 2 days as possibilities. We shall see.

  24. To me we got cash in on those opportunities with this strong El Nino as the snow window doesn’t stay open for long

  25. Harvey seems to think there’s a slight possibility we see a short period of snow Tuesday night, BUT said he thinks that there is a better chance that it’s much to far OTS to really effect us.

  27. 18z GFS with a big tease for MLK weekend. Monster storm, would cripple the mid-Atlantic but we’d get in on it also. Matches well with the 12z ECMWF “upgrade” version, although the operational Euro isn’t far off either, and a big storm signal in the Euro ensembles. At least for one model cycle, a strong “stormy” signal for that time period. So far away though, will surely change. The 10 day storms hardly ever pan out as they’re originally modeled. I find it’s often in the 4-7 day range when storms that were shown one way or even not at all on the models before suddenly look different and stay that way. The first big blizzard last season was one of those if I remember correctly. Even the storm for this Sunday didn’t really start to take clear shape until a couple days ago. That’s part of the reason I’m interested in the middle of next week potential. There’s clearly a storm threat with cold air, redeveloping low pressure and blocking north. It’s now in the window where it could go from looking like mostly a miss to a hit. If no big changes by late tomorrow/early Saturday, we can probably forget about it.

  29. * Very busy 4 day stretch for me, centered mainly around un-decorating outside (did so from 3PM to nearly 6PM today, some of it in the dark and a bit more to finish out there tomorrow afternoon) and then it’s inside inside inside this weekend. Aim to have it all done by Sunday night.

    * Ocean flow brings in the stratus and patchy drizzle for Friday/Saturday. Cool & raw.

    * Sunday, maybe a challenge to a few record highs but I’m starting to think temps under-achieve slightly, as does rain. Downpours are very possible but I think a lot of totals end up 1 inch or less.

    * Next week is the cold week. Disturbance from the west late Tuesday and early Wednesday, ignites a storm offshore as well but this largely misses.

    * Yes, the 18z GFS is very much over-developing the system for around January 17. You can probably go back and find a run that made Sunday’s upcoming system an all out snowstorm too. Models are what they are. They are computerized guesses used to simulate a potential outcome in the atmosphere using a great data set but one that is always incomplete because it’s simply impossible to be perfectly representative of the true atmosphere. We just get “close”.

      1. I’m just a realist when it comes to weather forecasting. You learn to separate fantasy from reality really quick when your audience is over 200,000 and speak all different languages. That was my gig for 13 years. 😉

  30. LOL!!!
    I would be happy if I got my hands on the one million dollar ticket which was sold here in CT to someone for the power ball drawing.

  31. Meteorologist Steven DiMartino from nynjpaweather with regards to MLK weekend storm POTENTIAL
    Thing is, both the 12Z GFS/ECWMF and 18Z GFS are all viable. THAT is the point.

    Now we have the pattern, the next step is to get the disturbances to interact correctly. The 18Z GFS solution IS possible.

    1. We shall see. AS WxWatcher indicates, IF it’s still there next week, we might
      be in business. I’m not holding my breath, but I am hopeful. 😀

  32. this is how i feel about that system you guys are mentioning.

    this was my facebook post when i saw it on the GFS
    “WHY DO THE WEATHER MODELS HAVE TO TEASE ME LIKE THAT!!! DARN YOU!!! 10 freakin days out there is a 973 freaking bomb off our coast, snow lover can dream right”

  33. Bernie Rayno tweet about next weekend
    lot of questions about 18z GFS.In this kind of pattern, going into a split flow that kind of storm CAN happen. Everything must hit perfectly

  35. We may have “Alex” in the Atlantic soon…

    And no, it would not be the first time. 🙂
    The answer is: 1978. And yes that one was classified “subtropical” but retro-analysis showed that it should have had a name.

    1. A glimmer of anything on any model during a “quiet” snow season always automatically reveals all the wishing forecasters that will find any way possible to forecast a biggie. 🙂

    2. I used to be a big fan of his, and I’ve heard he gets many clicks from many snow lovers because of his style, BUT overtime he is wrong over, and over, and over again. He may be one of if not the biggest hype mets out there. I’m not saying anyone is wrong for watching or listening. I admit he’s entertaining. Plus he’s focuses on Pennsylvania from my experience, and college station. 🙂

  38. Henry will overhype anything. He’s entertaining, perhaps. But, mostly unrealistic.

    MLK weekend does, however, often bring snow. I believe snow fell during MLK weekend in 2012, too. The only snow of the season.

      1. It doesn’t happen every year, but it’s at the start of 4 weeks when we’re at climate peak for snow, so it’s no surprise that it happens fairly frequently. You can say the same about the 3 weekends following it as well.

  40. While it’s still clear, with no wind, the temps are falling pretty quickly.

    Bedford was 23 last hour, 19 this hour. The freezing drizzle is a legitimate concern tomorrow morning.

  41. Our weather team, now expanded to include Pete Bouchard, is ready for the exciting future of covering New England weather on NECN, and focusing on Boston, as well, for the new, soon-to-be NBC Boston.

    does this mean this will take control of channel 7?

    1. No. NBC Boston will air on Telemundo and NECN. WHDH Ch 7 will basically become its own networkless entity and probably eventually disappear.

    1. Thanks TK. I thought I heard that the GM or whoever of WHDH is going to take NBC to court. I don’t understand why though.

  47. The update will be delayed for a bit today…
    Server issue will prevent a WHW post for a while.

  48. Good morning,

    Although there are some hints of snow, I am not currently impressed.
    I do, however, hold out hope.

    The 13th still looks like too little/too late/too North.
    We don’t get much snow out of a Northern Stream system that redevelops in
    the Gulf Of Maine. Just doesn’t happen unless there is something out of the usual
    going on. A bit of “backlash” snow is about it, if at all.

    The 17th or so looks more promising, however, there is MUCH model divergence.
    The GFS takes it out South of here with more or less a graze with a up to a few inches.
    The CMC takes it as an INSIDE runner.
    The EURO now has it delayed and parked down the coast on the 18th, destined to
    probably head out South of us.

    Until there is better model agreement, who knows what will happen.

    Just not giving me a warm and fuzzy feeling.

    Next system, around the 23rd, currently is still depicted as an INSIDE RUNNER.

    So we shall see.

    1. JPD, thank you for your reflections on Gunstock, Cannon and Wildcat yesterday. The view from Wildcat across to Tuckerman’s is my favorite in NE. Vicki brought in Cranmore to the discussion so between the two of you you pretty much covered my favorite mountains– though I would add Sugarloaf if I could just move it an hour closer.
      Thank you, especially, for referring to me as a “young man.” As I am still a couple of years from getting the senior discount, I guess I will accept the label!
      I think I will go for the shorter ride and use my Gunstock season pass tomorrow if the forecast does not force me north.

  49. Could you define what “inside runner” and “lakes cutter” mean – I see those terms used all the time and don’t know what exactly is being referred to . Thx

    1. These definitions are somewhat subjective. I heard Eric Fisher refer to a Lakes
      Cutter as an inside runner.
      That aside, here is What I mean (and probably most here):

      A Lakes Cutter is a storm system that tracks through the Great Lakes.
      It could pass through the Western Lakes or the Eastern Lakes, makes no
      difference, it’s still a Lakes Cutter.

      And Inside Runner is a Storm system that tracks anywhere East
      of the Lakes and West of the Coast itself.

      A Coastal is a system that tracks along the coast, either close or a somewhat
      off-shore.

      There are sub-costals as well.

      A Coastal Hugger is a coastal system the rides up right along the coast, very close to land.

      Barry Burbank had another term, Ocean Liner, meaning a storm that
      passes well off shore.

      I hope this helps. I am sure others will chime in on how they see these
      terms. 😀

Comments are closed.