Friday Forecast

108 Comments

10:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)…
This update is being produced on my phone with limited time to complete it so I am just posting a forecast update for now.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle possible. Temperatures steady in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with light mix/rain possible mainly early. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s in southern NH and northern MA, 50s to the south.
MONDAY: Sun/clouds. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)…
Great Lakes disturbance redevelops offshore with snow showers early January 13. Could be more snow if system develops a little sooner. Dry and cold January 14-16. Next storm threat later January 17.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)…
Watch for risk of rain or snow early in the period, otherwise mainly dry weather with variable temperatures.

108 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  5. New GFS looks mighty interesting for midweek. Not a big hit yet, but trending that way. Wonder if it will continue?

        1. Beats me. It was not performing well awhile ago.
          I have no clue as to it’s state of health at the moment.
          😀

          1. All I can say is the other models HAVE this
            system. It’s just a question of ironing out
            the details. 😀

      2. I think the storm, over the next few runs, will continue to be shown to develop more south and east with time, as it has been doing over the last few runs.

        The models are catching up with the blocking setting up to the north and east in the Greenland vicinity.

  6. I think the 1st storm around the 13th continues to get more interesting and at this early stage, I think the one around the 17th may not pan out ….

    Why, because the 13th storm system is going to be powerful and slow down around the maritimes due to the NAO and may disrupt things for the 2nd system.

    1. Yes, that is what “might” keep it just to our South as the 2nd system is
      destined to be powerful as well.

      However, can’t let our guard down, as the 2nd system “could” get far enough North and stall giving SNE quite a storm. We NEED to monitor for sure.
      This one is a long way off. Way too early to know.

      😀

      1. Sure, and I am the Easter Bunny. 😀

        This sub tropical system will end up heading SE ots.

        Not sure it will have a chance to interact with the system on
        1/13.

  8. 12Z GFS early indications on 17th system is a very flat, weak system depressed
    far to the South and OTS. However, signs of something perhaps pulling out
    of the Gulf? Similar to 0z EURO run last night.

  9. Today we have many interesting solutions for the 13th, and not so interesting solutions beyond that.

    The 13th storm starts out as a typical moisture starved clipper that helps to deliver cold air into New England. Once it hits the coastline… might as well place your bets now!

    Let’s get through this rainstorm first before snowfall maps start flying.

  10. CMC develops 13th clipper S&E of us, but doesn’t have it really develop until
    Well into the Maritimes.

    Then it has the 17th as a double barreled system with most focus West of us?????

    I am really waiting on the Euro, that’s the one I want to see.

  11. GFS is showing the mid week system next week further south than previous runs but it has not been consistent this is similar to the solution put out a few times before. So gfs has gone back to this.

    What has my I is that that 00z fantasy storm is no longer coming up the coast. The reason.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016010800&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=99
    No high giant strong high pressure system. Allows the storm to travel up the coast.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016010812&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=99

    latest run has a huge high pressure system that keeps the sub tropical jet suppressed to the south and the giant system is a very weak system that travels off the southeast coast.
    a lot can change but its what the euro is also showing they system well to the south

    TK can you be wrong for once 😛

  12. I will be booking bets on which station is the 1st to show “a preliminary snow map” for 17th-18th.

    1. There are few of us here who would be happy to show you one as soon
      as it is available. 😀

      As far as mets go? I don’t know who.

  13. Thanks tk 🙂

    Looking like still no meaningful snow for the foreseeable future, even after this brief colder period after the rain, it wants to become mild again. So far so good. 🙂 happy Friday!!! 🙂

    1. i hope you realize it is to be average temperatures do you still use the charlie model? There could be meaningful snow. several chances. If not a giant high pressure takes control and keeps us average to cool 😉

      1. Matt cmon no need to be mad because of the winter so far. There will be nothing at least next 7-10 days. Again just my opinion from looking at models

        1. the skier in me is wanting to be chilled 😉
          there are multiple chances of storms. If we miss storms its going to be due to a giant area of high pressure over the midddle of the country which will give us a northwest flow and which is a cold direction 😉

      2. Agree, Matt. Indeed, I’m not seeing “mild” in our mid-range forecast after this weekend. There may be mild in our long-range, but I always take a wait-and-see approach on long-range predictions.

        1. I think it’s very possible after its cold midweek, next weekend there are small signs of slight warmup, but I agree will see, other than a few snow showers, next week is looking like a rather quiet IMO.

      1. Yup next week, after that week of cold, I think milder, sooo instead of 30 for highs, I believe we moderate to the 40’s, that’s all. 🙂

  15. Charlie, you are slowly morphing into your old ways big fella, correct? And , no smiley faces attached!

    1. Oh geez aiden,,, I am very far from that, just a FYI, just because you disagree what I or some think, and you don’t want to hear it doesn’t mean you can put that person down. I’ll give it a smiley face 🙂 🙂 Thanks

  16. EURO seems to be following suit, at least through 96 hrs.

    That’s a potent northern stream system and it just cant go northeastward into Canada with the Greenland high and the big storm southwest of it that will get us Sunday.

    I’m slowly moving towards the idea of a big snowstorm, maybe quick rain to decent snow in SE New England sometime Tuesday into early Wednesday.

    1. Euro was looking good to me too, but in the end was pretty much a dud. As were the 12z CMC and UKMET. I really thought more of the guidance would come around after that GFS run, but doesn’t look like it, in fact everything else trended away from a storm.

      1. Saw that as well and for the 17th-18th time frame, the Euro
        has a WARM system, even IF it comes up the coast.

        1. Wait a minute, I was looking at a previous run.
          12Z not out far enough yet, so we shall see.

          My bad. Sorry.

  17. Here is the 12Z Euro Wundermap, showing the clipper redevelopment
    way too far North of us to do anything significant. A touch of light snow/snow showers
    is about it on this run.

    Hope this shows. Here is the link Wundermap gave me:

    http://wxug.us/1sotj

    1. How so? Curious to hear your thoughts. Looking at the Wundermap,
      the operational run had it too far North for any major impact down here.

      Did I miss something again?

      Thanks

        1. Freakin Wundermap!! Sometimes their link works
          and sometimes they don’t On the link above,
          select 12 Z and move it ahead to the proper hour
          to see.

          It’s not going to do much as depicted. 😀

      2. I question the model’s ability to correctly interpret the coastline interaction with the clipper at this time. The tricky part is when and how fast does energy get transferred to the coast. A lot of that is determined by the exact track and jet orientation such as amplitude and tilt.

        1. Ok, Thanks.

          Btw, Unless the Euro is totally and completely out to lunch, it has said good-bye to any big storminess
          after this upcoming clipper next week. It does, however, show a few more clippers coming down the pipe.

          I wonder if any of those will re-develop, even if
          not depicted at this time.

          Also, the parade of clippers would indicate to me that
          we will have a pretty COLD stretch starting post-clipper
          #1.

  20. Ok so now I can use the WHW account on my phone but it is not working yet on the laptop. Will have that up by tonight. 😛

  21. Charlie, the comment above is right. You’re going back to the same type of commenting because you want it to get under people’s skin. It’s basically the same set of comments day in and day out.

    Yes we know you don’t like snow and cold, and that you will choose whichever model shows the least, just like a true snow weenie will find a snowstorm on any model even though it has hardly any chance of being what is shown.

    All of that type of stuff is a waste of time in my opinion. State your opinions because that’s fine, but when you reply to others or write an original comment, forget about the part about trying to get them ruffled. Just talk about the weather, or the Patriots now and again if you like.

  22. Ok I gotta use my regular account for a bit…

    WBZ Blog flashback. 😛

    Current feelings on upcoming stuff…
    -Rain of 0.50 to 1.50 inch Sunday, but warm air may not make it all the way through. Triple-point may prevent that and much of the region north of Boston may see an occluded front rather than a warm front followed by a cold front.
    -Colder pretty much all of next week, Monday through Saturday, with a midweek grazing (storm mostly offshore), then moderating by Sunday.
    -Temporarily colder early the following week as the next threat evolves far to the south.
    – Signs of a shift back to milder for a while around or after January 20. And no, it won’t be the end of the cold for the Winter.

      1. Well there is always the possibility that my speculation blows up and I’m completely wrong too. 🙂

  23. Nice 1-3 inch storm for my area middle next week. Hopefully there will be a surprise and more snow.
    The storm POTENTIAL 17th 18th will go back and forth. Plenty of time for this to change.
    Tweet from meteorologist Steven DiMartino for 1/13
    Meteorologist know where to look when it comes to this clipper on Wednesday AM. 500 MB PVA is VERY interesting.

    Tweet from him for 1/17 storm POTENTIAL
    Let’s see, 12Z a miss which with all this blocking seems suspect the way the 500 MB pattern goes about configuration.

  24. Interesting weather item from Europe: From Monday through Thursday 4 days straight of sleet and freezing rain closed schools and essentially stopped all traffic in the two northern most provinces of the Netherlands: Groningen and Friesland. Temps were in the upper 20s at the surface, but above 32F aloft, continuously (day and night-time temps differed only marginally). As I mentioned before, sleet is very common in parts of Europe. The ice pellets and freezing rain turned highways, byways, bike-paths, and walkways into skating rinks for days.

  25. DT is hyping up an event for the 17th timeframe.

    YES THE EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREAT JAN 17-19 IS GROWING …. The 18z GFS and 12z high resolution European Model Both show a major snowstorm affecting the Middle Atlantic & southern New England

    1. When did he say it? Yesterday or today?
      That looks like yesterday’s information to me.

      I do not believe the 18Z GFS is available just yet, at least not out to the 17th.

  26. 18Z not out far enough just yet. Very close.
    However, the 500MB, 300MB and 200MB charts look pretty impressive
    for some explosive coastal development. Where/when is the question.

  29. Keep in mind that when DT says that there is a threat, he’s often focusing on the Middle Atlantic. Have to make sure you check out the details to see if he’s including New England in his discussion.

    2. It’s going to rain? I had no idea! 😛

      Actually think the system will under-perform in terms of rain but maybe not wind.

  31. Stopped by turnpike lake today, there is ice on it ranging from very very thin, up to about an inch an a half thick, many open areas, about 40-50% coverage. A bit unusual for almost mid January.

    1. I love that grey afternoon when no precipitation is falling. After work I was taking down the remainder of my outside Christmas lights under the grey sky with instrumental music in my ears and it was a nice passageway from the holiday season to the early-mid Winter period.

      1. Sounds more than special. We will take down santa and sleigh today but leave lights up for a bit. I like to light them when it snows. I think it is a throwback to my younger days when ski country kept lights up all winter

  33. Sunday: High Wind Watch in eastern MA, Cape and Islands all the way up to Maine.

    Will probably upgrade to a Warning before tomorrow.

      1. looking at wondermaps it is similar to what the gfs does it travels up the coast and then pulls away once it gets to the same latitude as nyc. something seems to push it out ,canadian and gfs both have the system as well. there are differences in them all but there is at least something. All the models seem to back off with the extreme high pressure over middle of the country which is allowing these possibilities. Its over a week out but its something. Its either going to be cold with these storms traveling to the south or giving us some winter storm. Both are good . I really do not think what the canadian was saying the other day will pan out, Only solution showing warming and rain.

  39. That is a tightly wound low pressure system. 950 mb low well east of the benchmark.
    Will see if the 12z runs show this feature.

  40. Thanks JJ. Anything for Tuesday? I’m sure the Euro isn’t going to hold it’s course it’s a week away.

  42. It always concerns me when there is so much model divergence.
    Something is up, but there is no consistency with timing, track and strength.
    The models are having trouble putting it all together, therefore, we can’t have
    any idea of what will happen. We could get a huge snow storm, a rainorama or a total
    miss. It’s all on the table right now. BUT something is brewing.

  43. New post.

    Oh and, be very very careful falling for model data right now. They’re a mess. The closest will be the ECMWF.

Comments are closed.