Saturday Forecast

106 Comments

9:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)…
Onshore flow at low levels as weakening system above it passes by today, meaning damp and grey, though some inland areas are cold enough to support a little very light frozen precipitation this morning. Stronger storm passes through the Great Lakes and up the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday and Sunday night, and for this area that means a period of moderate to heavy rain, mild air, and strong, gusty wind. Windy/colder/drier behind this system Monday. Next disturbance may bring some snow showers late Tuesday and early Wednesday, but will be progressive enough that when it redevelops into a strong storm offshore Wednesday, it will be too far away to deliver meaningful snow.
TODAY: Cloudy. An area of light rain/mix north and west of Boston for a while in the morning, otherwise patchy drizzle. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain and embedded thunderstorms developing west to east morning, ending west to east late day. Highs 48-55, coolest valleys of southern NH and north central MA. Wind SE to S increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH common and gusts over 40 MPH possible.
MONDAY: Sun/clouds. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Possible snow showers early. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)…
Dry and cold January 14-16. Storm threat later January 17 into January 18 but far too early for detail. General pattern favors this system being too far south for major impact but will keep an eye on it.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)…
Pattern turns fairly quiet with seasonable to mild temperatures dominant.

106 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. is seasonably mild the same as seasonably cool?
      If it is seasonable, it is seasonable ie average.

      Tk said seasonable (ie average) to mild (ie somewhat above average).

      So that would be for Boston high temps of about 36 (ave)-41 (mild) or so. STILL COLD enough for SNOW, should a system come along. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

  5. Running out now. Awaiting 12Z runs. I now await each run more anxiously as there
    are some possibilities. I’ll believe it when I see it, but something to monitor. πŸ˜€

  6. Thank you tk as always πŸ™‚

    Looking like a mild and wet weekend. The upcoming week looks rather quiet, colder next week with few snow showers or flurries midweek IMO. I still think there are subtle hints at temps go slightly above average after this upcoming weekend 5-10 above average. I hope everyone has a great weekend!!! Keep this quiet weather going. πŸ™‚

  7. Tom I suspect you know this, but I was interested that Marshfield is recycling sand from the South River dredging project to help shore up Rexhame Beach. Very wise

  8. 35.7 degrees here. Rain stopped and not seeing any on radar. Birds chirping. Overcast but fairly bright. Nice winter day yet again.

    1. Yup

      GFS is slow today.

      BIG HIGH setting up for the 17th-20th period. Not sure what 12Z GFS
      will show, but the High and Cold are in place.

  12. No can we cash in on any of these opportunities
    Tweet from Meteorologist Ed Vallee
    Pretty classic #ElNino precip distribution d8-14. Looks favorable for coastal storms thru 1/25 with plenty of cold.

    1. FAT Chance.

      12Z GFS is a PATHETIC disappointment. POOOOOOTHETIC!!!!

      Such run-to-run variability. IT is really having a problem.

      Let’s see what the Euro shows and for pure entertainment value, the CMC. πŸ˜€

    2. They can keep saying that. Before it was mid Jan. Before that it was right after Christmas. February will be snow time here in SNE.

      1. I seen predictions for the rest of Jan of 1-6 inches, Feb 6-12 inches, that would put many between 12-24 inches total entering March. Would you agree tk ?

          1. No hunch, I’ve seen it in a few places, also next Friday we leave for Bermuda, thanks for asking. πŸ™‚

    1. The Tuesday night / Wednesday morning event? Probably not. I’ll watch it.

      We’re going to get through most of January with not much, but watch for something measurable around January 24 that will open the door to a new weather pattern in February.

      Also we’re not 100% “out of the woods” in the January 17-19 time frame yet, but it’s going to have to be almost like winning the lottery to come together just right.

  16. Today’s 12z GFS is a decent run. That does NOT mean the model is “back”. It means that today’s 12z GFS is a decent run. That is all!

  17. I find it interesting that almost every MLK weekend, there is a storm threat, usually frozen since it is near our coldest average high temp (36F) I assume. When the holiday itself was first celebrated, it seemed to always snow albeit nothing particularly memorable…maybe light-moderate amounts at best.

    1. Perhaps because mid January is one of the coldest and snowiest times of the year, in a climate sense that is. πŸ™‚

      The atmosphere doesn’t know anything about MLK Weekend specifically. It’s just because we’re entering the mid point of Northern Hemisphere Winter. πŸ™‚ And “around MLK Weekend assumes one means for a day or so before it and a day or so after it, which is a 5 to 7 days period. Chances are, there will be at least one snow threat during that time in any given year. πŸ™‚

      I could say the same thing about any random date really… Say, January 29 for example. If you go back in climate records and do extensive research, you’ll probably find that the week most likely to snow is sometime in February.

      Just a little perspective. πŸ™‚

  18. Certainly more interesting once this rain event passes us by.

    P.S. Charlie shouldn’t you be on your phantom trip to Bermuda?

    Weatherman says:
    December 30, 2015 at 5:53 AM
    Thanks tk πŸ™‚ Good morning!!! Coldest morning so far, can’t wait to go to Bermuda for 12 days next weekend. Perfect timing!!!! Be safe in your travels.

      1. So on Dec 30 next weekend happens to be jan 16/17…what happened to jan 9/10…I’ll let you speak for yourself as you did on Dec 30th…I don’t care that you don’t like snow, you just have a knack for creating your own truths

        1. LOL nah we moved it to next week, i just didn’t say it on here, if you would like me to post more about what I do daily I can post more, instead of you trying to not only be embarrassed, but me post more about it. It cost 1,000 to push it to this week and I’m not happy about it, we’ve decided we r running in the half marathon there in Bermuda. Don’t worry!! I’ll still be posting from there. I honestly really hope your having a good weekend!! I’m heading into the north end for a 5pm dinner reservation.

  19. Couple good tweets from meteorologist Steven DiMartino about the clipper and POSSIBLE storms after.
    Remember we have a poorly sampled Arctic disturbance on Tues PM/Wed AM for a clipper.
    This disturbance then influences the development of two other poorly sampled disturbance for Saturday night through Monday.
    The error here is exponential and it is why I don’t freak out with each model run with a hit or a miss or something in between.

    ο…‘

    ο…’

    1. I would wonder why any meteorologist would have any reason to “freak out” about a model run. πŸ™‚

  20. Wonderful blog entry on WBZ by Eric Fisher. Well worth the read, if you are
    interested. He basically warns us not to worry about run-to-run differences for the next several days. He still thinks something is up for next weekend.

    CMC looks wacking.

    Euro LOST the 950MB Bomb, but still has something for 1/18:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010912/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

    But then rockets that baby OTS.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010912/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    Looks to be fairly potent as it passes us by.

    Tk, does that solution look reasonable? Possible? Outlandish and out of the question?

    Onto the next run for more giggles and laughs.

  22. That ECMWF solution is less likely than previous, but not surprising since the GFS suddenly got a clue. They just can’t work together very well. πŸ˜›

    1. Than Previous? what does that mean? Less likely than the 950MB bomb
      it previously had? OR the blah blah it had from the 0Z run.

      I knew you would be a Killjoy and not let us enjoy looking at one
      juicy model run. πŸ˜€ 😈 πŸ‘Ώ πŸ˜†

      Let’s see what the 0Z run shows.

      1. Let’s just say what it shows on 12z is not impossible but is improbable.

        Nothing stops you from enjoying the run. πŸ™‚

        1. Incorrect. When a met says that run is out to lunch, believe me that kills it. Not that I want you to stop, it’s your job to provide reality checks and it is much appreciated.

          How has the Euro been performing in your opinion?

          Thanks

  23. JPD…”Patience” clearly is NOT your middle name. πŸ˜‰

    If TK says it will snow come February then it will snow. I plan to use the rest of this month to stock up on some items. I don’t like grabbing off the shelves at the last minute like most do.

    And if it doesn’t snow much next month, then there is certainly next winter 2016-17. I am really looking forward to that anyway assuming TK’s long term outlook verifies. πŸ˜€

    1. Patience? What is that?
      I didn’t come into the Winter expecting anything in December, but
      I did expect it to pick up a bit in January. What gets me is the models
      show a nice storm and then remove it next run. I hit the DISLIKE BUTTON!

      That’s what bothers me more than anything. If it’s not going to snow, fine, but
      don’t have the models show otherwise, that’s all. πŸ˜€

        1. I am wondering if the models aren’t picking up the El NiΓ±o pattern initially but does finally “get it” after a few runs?

        2. Yes you did and now I see what you mean.

          To echo Philip, is this because of El Nino? OR are they
          having trouble with the split jet? Ooops in a sense that’s
          the same thing this year.

          1. Split flow. The model doesn’t really know about El NiΓ±o. It only reacts to initial conditions.

  25. TK…what time does the rain start Sunday? Hoping to clean some leaves out of the grate but it got dark. Hoping I have time in the morning.

    JPD…you had winter written off last year than jan 24th came and boom. I would love no snow but know it’s coming…in no rush myself.

  26. What I like about it is it seems to make the winter go by faster with this current weather . I was down derby street shops earlier today walking around no jacket . People want to get out more. Come March things slowly start improving for the next season and it’s by by winter.

    1. Of course!!! Everybody wants to get out more, it’s great stuff!!! Just imagine if it was like this every winter!! πŸ™‚

  28. According to Barry on air this early evening, there are 3 potential snow events upcoming for this month. I find it interesting that there are never any “potential” rain events. They just always seem to come to fruition like clockwork. πŸ˜€

    1. Not really. There are many modeled rain events that don’t come to fruition. Today’s disturbance was once modeled to be a significant rain maker.

        1. Present some factual information to convince me then, and I will retract my statement. πŸ™‚

  30. Models, shmodels is what I say. If I want to know what the weather is. I just look out my window!!

  32. Hi everyone. I just went to the store and I bought the winning Powerball ticket for tonight. I am letting you know so you will save money by not buying any tickets. πŸ™‚

  33. Regarding the idea about it not snowing vs. not raining. Here is a little perspective that will help with understanding why this may be something that seems to be true, but is not…

    When people pay attention to media, or most forms of it, regarding upcoming weather, think for a moment about when we first starting hearing about upcoming rain events versus upcoming snow events. While it is indeed true that your average meteorologist may talk about both of them somewhat similarly, if you pay close attention, the day-7 icon with snow flakes on it is going to stand out much more than the one with rain drops on it. Then when you add the little element of social media and even moreso the sites run by irresponsible met’s as well as just plain non-professionals, you have “snow events” being the product of these self-proclaimed prophets. How often are they going to start tweeting out news flashes about pattern changes when it hasn’t rained that much lately and the ECMWF has a rain event on day-10? Not that often, if ever. But you better believe if that or any model is painting a snow event, then the tweet storm will be underway. How often do you see a rainfall map by a model days in advance circulating around social media and/or mainstream media? I can answer that, if it happens at all, it’s a hell of a lot less frequent than how often you’ll see snow maps days and days in advance. In fact, just a couple days ago, a very well known former Boston TV met tweeted out a map of the ECMWF for an event over a week away, that was showing over 8 inches of snow for the Boston area. “I sent it just for fun” was his reply when one of my colleagues called him out.

    I rest my case.

  34. I actually paid more attention this past spring summer and fall with rain events, thunderstorms ect. I think it depends on the situation of the rain event.

    1. I suspect you do because you are aware of the deficit. I think TK is absolutely correct that the majority of folks do not.

      1. I am starting to really worry about it come spring when people start complaining about restricted water.

  35. I think the models will know more about that clipper system once this rain storm leaves. We will then know about the weekend possibility after the clipper/arctic front possibility moves through, See where the center of the high pressure is.

  36. I went back to a year ago today. We were all pretty excited about snow ….about an inch…we received that day. Joke was on us I think :). Charlie only mentioned two times that it would warm up the following week. Arod had just returned which makes me think it was first snow….where are you, Arod??? And what is the January 24 rule?

    It was cold. It was that week that schools were cancelling because of cold. It was 14 in Atlanta and lots of frozen pipes here.

    Just a recap minute ….sleep well everyone.

  38. 00z GFS looks more interesting for the 18th..Has a pretty strong low just grazing our area but still to far south. Let’s see if this is a trend with 06Z GFS and EURO.

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