Sunday Forecast

134 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)…
A stormy Sunday! Strong low pressure tracks well northwest of the region today and tonight but a tight wind gradient means strong wind and plenty of moisture and mild air coming up with the system means some heavy rain. The strongest wind gusts from the southeast today will occur over Cape Cod, Nantucket, and east and south facing shores of the remainder of southeastern New England. Once the cold front of this system pulls through during this evening, the rain will shut off and the wind will shift. Colder air will flow in quickly but a gusty wind, having shifted to the west, will dry out much of the ground before the rainwater on it can freeze, other than in areas where there are deeper puddles, so by morning watch for some ice patches. The daytime of Monday will be fair, windy, and cold. A clipper system from Canada arrives via the Great Lakes later Tuesday then redevelops in the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This system will bring some snow or snow showers to the region with minor accumulation at best before exiting and reinforcing the cold for midweek.
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain into late morning then widespread rain, heavy at times, and embedded thunderstorms midday on. Highs 48-55, may reach the upper 50s in parts of southeastern and eastern MA. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-50 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH coast. Strongest winds late in the day.
TONIGHT: Rain ends west to east early, a few rain showers may linger briefly, otherwise clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind shifting to W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow or snow showers late day and night. Lows 15-22. Highs 25-32.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers early, then partly sunny. Lows 20-27. Highs 28-35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)…
Fair and cold January 15-16. Storm threat for later January 17 into January 18 looks minor at this time as it appears systems in the northern and southern jet streams will not interact completely until they pass by, but will watch closely. Fair and cold January 19.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)…
Fair and milder January 20-22, colder January 23. Watch for the next storm threat late in the period.

134 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK for the Sunday update.

    All storm threats look to have gone poof with the latest runs. Yes, even the Euro as
    predicted by TK yesterday. Euro still has a BOMB for the 18th, but well off shore with
    a fringe at best. Perhaps an inch or 2 of snow. There’s still the next run.

    In the meantime, can we break a high temperature record or 2??? Probably not, but
    let’s get something out of this. Will anyone top 50 mph in the wind department?

    Nantucket gusting to 26.5 mph so far.

    Latest watches. Boston in wind advisory, NO Warning here

    Map

    http://www.weather.gov/box/

    Details

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=wind%20advisory

  4. Hmmmmm, My wife will be buying some tickets for sure.

    BOSTON (CBS) — After there was no winner in Saturday night’s Powerball drawing, the jackpot jumped to a record estimated $1.3 billion dollars, with the cash prize option estimated at $806 million.

    The next drawing will be on Wednesday night. The previous high for a Powerball jackpot was the $590.5 million drawing won on May 18, 2013.

  5. Anyone see the end of the Pittsburg/Cincinnati game. Wow what a debacle.
    Now we have to play Kansas City, winners of 11 in a row.

  7. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Which one of the following products has NOT been used on icy roads as an environmentally friendly rock salt substitute?

    A. Pickle Juice
    B. Beet juice
    C. Cheese Byproducts
    D. Lemon Juice

    How much snow have we had this winter in Boston? (Logan Airport)

    A. 0.5”
    B. 0.9”
    C. 1.2”
    D. 2.0”.

    Answers later today

      1. Nope gonna change to C and B. I figure if beet pulp can be used in horses food to break up stuff stuck in the innards (technical description 🙂 ), then it can be used on roads. I’m betting TK is right but…..

  9. Thank you, TK. I’ll have to do my morning jog soon before the heavier rain arrives.

    The Bengals are a joke. A travesty. Have always had way too many hotheads, and in some cases felons. Lewis has to get fired for not reining in his players, but also for losing every post-season game he’s ever coached. Of course, Bengal ownership will not do what is necessary to truly turn around a miserable franchise.

  10. Love it have only used my oil two days this whole winter. I know the ball will drop eventually but for now I will relish in it.

    1. The 12km NAM and especially 4km NAM always look like the end of the world. That said, there may be squalls with the cold front.

    1. 8 or 10 inches
      there would not of been as much moisture to work with and then also 30 is marginal more of a 8 to 1 or 10 to 1 ratio .. usually

  14. Remember about a week ago I mentioned that the models were missing a feature that would bring a precip threat late January 12?

    They eventually found it and that system may bring a small snow accumulation to at least parts of the region.

  15. D and B for trivia.
    I did see the Steelers Bengals game. Before the penalized yards on Steelers last drive go back to the fumble by the Bengals. If they just held on to the ball they get out of there with a win. They turn the ball over Pittsburgh converts a 4th and 3 on the drive and they got 30 free yards with Bengals penalties. A great fourth quarter comeback down 15-0 to take the lead but in the end big time mistakes cost the Bengals.
    Would not be surprised if Marvin Lewis the Bengals coach is fired. 0-7 playoff record as a coach and five straight years losing their first playoff game. This team can’t perform on the big stage for whatever the reason.

    1. Love how the three or so bengals players ran the fumble all the way into the locker room…chumps. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!

  17. Tk for the eastern 1/3rd of Massachusetts it looks to me like it’s to warm Tuesday evening, and sprinkles or showers are more likely than flurries or snow showers. Would you concur?

    1. It looks to mild for another snow showers around eastern mass IMO Tuesday, then front moves through and becomes cold, but precip is already gone.

  18. Just came in. Getting reasonably windy, but no great shakes.
    gust to 39 at Logan and 44 at Blue Hill.

    here, maybe 25-30 ish.

  20. Euro sure looks interesting.

    Wants to give us 2-3 inches with the Clipper on 1/12-1/13.
    Then delivers a system on 1/16 and another on 1/17, none too potent, but
    with moisture.

    Here is the total snowmap, including the clipper

    http://imgur.com/baiH2L7

    7 PM 1/16

    http://imgur.com/HV7ILz1

    7 PM 1/17

    http://imgur.com/yQdZreg

    CMC and GFS have some funky configurations for those days.

    On would like to believe that the superior Euro would have a better handle on this, but
    Probably not. 😀

    Interesting to say the least.

  23. It’s amazing how warm SST are in the Gulf Of Main and of the south coasts. If we get phasing in February watch out!

  24. Just had a lightening strike, and a small clap of thunder. Nothing to exciting, nevertheless I saw and heard.

    1. You don’t miss a chance do you?
      I was talking about total rain amount based on model consensus that had a lot of 2 inch amounts. I never said we would not have downpours. It may serve you well to read my discussions and forecasts as well as comments.

      1. Exactly…a few downpours here otherwise just a light to sometime moderate rain. Winds really under-perfomed here..some gusts but nothing to get me concerned about my antennas, etc.

        1. Same with the wind here not impressed at all. But I think Tk said this morning that would be confined to mostly the cape. But the rain itself has been heavy all day. We need it.

  26. Greetings from up in Tyngsboro today at a family gathering

    Quite a challenging drive in the rain.

    See we’re really getting into the warm sector along with some thunderstorms.

    Still some snow on the ground up here.

  27. I don’t get all the attention the Minnesota game is getting because it cold. It’s Minnesota…in almost mid January. They make it seem like these players are navy seals with how brave they are then go on to tell you how games have been played in much colder and worse conditions. So which is it??? Ha.

    3. Agree!! Big deal, personally I would think it’s would be tougher to play in 90-95 degree temps with a dew point of 75 in Miami in Sept than 0 degrees.

    1. There are often lulls. I’ve had 30-40 MPH gusts. Ib did mention the stronger winds would occur in gusts.

          1. Not joking or kidding and NOT trying to give anyone a hard time. There just isn’t any wind here. Perhaps 10mph, if that. 😀

            I sure is raining, however.

            2. I believe it Dave. We had a short period of minor winds when the rain got really heavy. That was about it.
              Loving the later daylight!

  29. Ok, I have a Serious question/comment/thought about The Alberta Clipper
    moving into our area on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

    Given how toasty warm the ocean is off of our coastline and of course warmer
    to the South. Can these warmer SSTs to the South influence Where the clipper redevelops? Specifically, could it cause the clipper to develop farther South than
    modeled and have it throw a decent shield of snow over us, especially in Eastern Sections??

    Just a thought, but was wondering…..

  30. We had a clipper 2 winters ago that way overperformed from what was modeled. And when I say way we had maybe 6 inches of snow instead of 2. Nothing major but I’ve seen these give a low-moderate snowfall sneakily before.

        1. So, that is 10%. There was a 25% chance that the power ball was not hit last night. Well, it was not hit.

          Go Figure.

          We can still watch the evolution and redevelopment of
          that clipper and see what happens. 😀

          1. Yesterday morning I told my mom and my brother that nobody was going to win powerball.

            And then I told my wife before kickoff that the Texans were going to be shut out at home.

            But I did not play powerball. 🙂

  31. Lot of much needed rain out there today, although not impressed by the wind here either. Seems to be a well forecast event though, from several days out as well.

    Impressive line of convection out in eastern NY/NJ. Will be interesting to see if it makes it closer to us. HRRR says no, I agree with it, not enough instability I think. Not much needed with so much shear though, that’s how it developed in the first place.

  32. The wind forecasts were justified in my opinion. This type of system is not one in which the entire region is going to get swept by the strongest wind but heavier elements of rain can drag the stronger winds to the surface. We have seen that in pockets.

    It’s much better to forecast the gusts and have them not reach the top of the forecast range instead of not forecasting them and having people caught off-guard.

  35. In Billerica, we had heavy rain and the trees were really moving. wind was very strong then again Billerica is a hill.

    1. Matt I answered in previous blog, butI guess you didn’t catch it.

      It is $9.95 per month and includes a bunch of cool stuff, too much to list
      and too much to keep getting screen shots. IMHO, well worth the money.

      It has nice Winter maps as well as severe maps, surface, precipitation, upper air etc. etc.

  39. 8 incidences of wind damage, 2 in RI, 5 in southeastern MA, and one in the city of Boston.

    That verifies the need for the wind watches and warnings today. Great job NWS.

    ALSO looks like 2+ inch rain amounts are lacking, verifying the idea that many models were forecasting too much precipitation. No surprise there.

    “Meteorology”, not “modelology”.

  40. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Which one of the following products has NOT been used on icy roads as an environmentally friendly rock salt substitute?

    A. Pickle Juice
    B. Beet juice
    C. Cheese Byproducts
    D. Lemon Juice

    The answer is D.

    How much snow have we had this winter in Boston? (Logan Airport)

    A. 0.5”
    B. 0.9”
    C. 1.2”
    D. 2.0”.

    The answer is B.

  44. Soaking rain pretty much all day in Boston. Not often have we said that in the past 18 months or so.

    Seahawks are so darn lucky. Last year against the Packers they had no business winning the game. This year against the Vikings, idem ditto.

    Hadi. GO SKINS!

  47. 1.62 rain here. 1.87 Uxbridge

    Wind was gusty this am here. Was very windy In Uxbridge which surprised me although I hadn’t paid attention to how far Inland. Things blew all around daughters house. Opening car door was a challenge.

    Puddling on roads here was bad in many spots. Is that because ground frozen??

  49. Is “Lakes Cutter” the GFS middle name?

    18Z GFS wants to take the 1/17 system and send it through the Eastern Great Lakes.
    Ahhh Go Bleep 18Z GFS! Go Bleepity bleep bleep Bleep!@()#*(&!@*(&#*(!&@*#&

      2. Not too surprising given the 2 most likely scenarios are Great Lakes and OTS. The Ensemble mean will be a compromise.

  50. RECORD ALERT FOR BOSTON

    Boston Weather Updates
    9 mins ·
    The temp just shot up in Boston to 57. A new record high for January 10th.

    2. Thank heavens you are ok, Sue. I saw there was damage elsewhere also feom wind and flooding. Best part of being here (well one of many best parts) is that we know enough to understand not to judge weather from just outside our own window.

  55. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016011018&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=446
    like I said split between two, all over the place gfs. ensemble runs.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011018&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=360

    GFS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011018&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=104
    so far west, does not even go with the western tracks of the ensemble runs.

    Euro
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011012&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=104

    has two systems but stretched out and cold enough for snow.

    EPS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011012&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=104
    low to the southeast
    weak low to the southeast just like the gefs (ensemble)
    Gfs Ensemble also looks similar to the EURO before becoming one storm off the coast.

    interesting to say the least

    2. Good luck with that one Dave. I’ve often asked that question myself. It’s been a “loosely” defined term and often varies from storm to storm and met to met in my experience. Another good one is “south coast.” Many times, these terms are used to describe p-type during winter storms and/or accumulations. Fact is, in SNE there’s so much variability in weather over just a couple miles and even from town to town that terms like those lead to so much confusion. I know I didn’t answer your question but wanted to let u know you’re not alone in wondering the same thing.

      1. There really isn’t a define line, however I’ve always thought the coastal plain was all of Bristol,Plymouth,Norfolk,Suffolk, eastern 3rd of middlesex, and eastern half of Essex counties, in general all these locales are under 200ft elevation and within 25 miles of the Atlantic.

  59. Good morning,

    Now the Euro has pretty much gone the way of the GFS.
    Snow? what’s that? Kiss it good-bye. So much for the HYPE! What a Waste!!!
    Model mayhem! If it’s more than a few days out, don’t bother.

    Even tomorrow, it could easily rain or be a mix. Even if it does manage to snow, no big deal.

    Did someone say February? Who was that guy. Whoever he is, he knows more
    than ALL of the guys on TV. 😀

  61. Geez it’s freezing!!!! Winter meeting this morning setting up preparations for start up. Really hoping to start in late February.

  63. Back to old habits ….

    Temp anomalies yesterday …..

    +19, 23, 21 and 21F.

    Logan was 49F at midnight, so, regardless of how cold today is, that’s the high. Unless its about 8F by midnight tonight, today will go down above average, if not well above.

    Next weekend, I think the Patriots are superior to the Chiefs, but I also think the weather can be an equalizer, so I don’t like seeing the trends of storminess for the game. I’d rather this matchup be played in fair conditions.

    Now, if the AFC championship game ends up Pats at Denver, let the weather be a factor for Mr. Manning.

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