Monday Forecast

200 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)…
Changing weather the next few days as wind/cold/dry today is followed by a clipper system and unsettled weather later Tuesday, then another windy/cold Wednesday and a more tranquil Thursday and Friday with a cold Thursday and slightly milder Friday.
TODAY: Sunshine and a few passing clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20 except 20-25 Cape Cod and Islands as well as urban centers. Wind W diminishing to 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Precipitation arriving late day into evening as mix to snow northwest of Boston, rain to mix ending as snow Boston southeast. Snow accumulation of up to 1 inch possible northwest of Boston with an isolated heavier amount possible in north central MA and southwestern NH, but generally trace amounts to coatings elsewhere. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Isolated snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs around 30.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs around 30.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)…
Unsettled weather possible during the weekend of January 16-17 with timing not certain and precipitation type also somewhat uncertain, but favoring rain versus snow based on the thought that systems will remain fairly weak and we won’t see a merger of the polar and subtropical jet streams. Dry and colder January 18-20.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)…
Dry and milder early in the period. Watch for a storm threat later in the period.

200 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Back to old habits ….

    Temp anomalies yesterday …..

    +19, 23, 21 and 21F.

    Logan was 49F at midnight, so, regardless of how cold today is, that’s the high. Unless its about 8F by midnight tonight, today will go down above average, if not well above.

    Next weekend, I think the Patriots are superior to the Chiefs, but I also think the weather can be an equalizer, so I don’t like seeing the trends of storminess for the game. I’d rather this matchup be played in fair conditions.

    Now, if the AFC championship game ends up Pats at Denver, let the weather be a factor for Mr. Manning.

  3. Thanks TK. Strongly split flow. You called that months and months ago, and it’s definitely the story of our winter- we’re caught in the middle, and without phasing that means kiss any substantial snow chances goodbye. Looking like a wet game at Gillette on Saturday, wonder just how warm it will get.

    1. TK has an uncanny ability to look into the future. He’s better than anyone
      I have ever seen, including Eric, Barry and Harvey.

      I don’t think it was his instructors, I think he was born with a gift.

      I vote that TK is offered the very next TV Met job in Boston (we don’t want him
      leaving the area).

  4. Interesting views on Saturday from the three major networks.

    WHDH – clouds with a rain drop and snowflake
    WBZ – watching
    WCVB – partly cloudy

  6. re: Weekend

    Last night Barry was married to the Euro and said possible snow both
    Saturday and Sunday. He even went so far as to say the Pats game could be
    played in the snow. Now the new Euro says, what? I didn’t say that!!

    Pretty funny, actually.

    I wonder if enhancements could be made to all the models to be able to better
    handle this notorious split flow, because right now they suck at it.

    Again, I can handle it not snowing, but what bugs the crap out of me is the tease
    the models give us. I could do without that. 😀

  7. Sad news from the music world with the passing of David Bowie. Many of us (perhaps most of us) grew up listening to his music.

    1. Indeed. I posted on previous blog earlier this morning.
      I had no idea he was sick, apparently battling cancer for the last 18 months.

      A huge loss.

      1. I am not sure anyone knew. It seems he kept his battle very private.

        I don’t even know the words to put to that disease….and many others we have.

        You are so correct, JpDave. It is a huge loss

    2. I loved Bowie. Young American and Changes, especially. Could listen to them forever. Was shocked to hear this on the news. The thing is, I always liked him when he was interviewed as well.
      I felt that way about Lou Reed too; another we lost just a couple of years ago.

  9. any change in thought on the clipper mid-week? 12z nam was more robust with it than in past runs….still nothing to write home about

  10. Feeling blue this morning, as a true legend has passed away. Avant-garde artist, cultural icon, a British music ambassador to the world. R.I.P., David Bowie. Close friend of Lou Reed, Iggy Pop, Tina Turner, and other American path-breakers. He also deeply appreciated America and its music.

    From 1981, two Englishmen who died too young, Freddie Mercury and David Bowie:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtrEN-YKLBM

  11. 12Z NAM snowmap:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016011112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

    Note: that is about 1/2 inch for Boston.

    Total qpf would support more snow than that:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016011112&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=072

    Reason: much of the precipitation is the type that either goes down the drain or
    does NOT accumulate due to above freezing surface temperatures.

      1. You’ll see snow tomorrow JP all should be covered and possibly 1″amounts if it comes together just right . As we say in the Business we got a salt / nuisance event on tap .

                1. Meaning that the precipitation will be over by those times and accumulations will be minimal.

                  It may never even completely change to snow in parts of SE MA before it ends, depending on timing.

  16. Good morning!! Thank you tk!!

    Cold brrrr!!! Though Tomorrow warms up just enough for showers in Boston that may change to a few flurries or snow showers, (nuisance type stuff) IMO. Cold week ahead and rather quiet. Another period of rain and or snow showers this weekend. It may be just a tad to mild, and not enough moisture. After this as I’ve said there are subtle hints of going back above normal, will this take us through Jan? Who knows right now. Enjoy the day!!! 🙂

    1. OF COURSE, what else should we expect.

      4. Despite the cold this week, and the prospect of more cold next week, a storm this weekend may track far enough west that for most of the Eastern Seaboard it “warms up and rains.”

      That’s a fancy way of saying EL NINO and the split flow will cause yet
      another system track through the Lakes!!!

      However, looking at the 12Z GSF, there may be a few factors interfering with
      that. We shall see.

  18. Let’s see how things look after the Clipper passes through. Perhaps that will shake things up just enough???

  19. A huge branch was blown down on elm street adjacent to legacy place, police are re routing traffic, not huge problems.

    1. So when did that come down?

      Yesterday or did someone blow off some steam this morning and cause
      the problem?

        1. Weakened yesterday. Contracted in the cold and came down today as wind gusts are easily enough to take down a compromised branch.

        1. Ahhh – that is the problem. I shared on FB …didn’t check…and my son in law corrected me. I also said on FB that Mac always thought it was ridiculous to have just one winner and that there should be a way for multiple people to win. Perhaps not every person in the country or even close.

  21. Is there a trend back to a coastal for the weekend????

    Here is the Euro:

    http://imgur.com/zoYf4xp

    Here is the CMC:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016011112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

    As depicted, both models are too warm for snow here, with the Euro warmer
    than the CMC.

    However, it wouldn’t take much of a change for a different result.
    IF this is a trend, then the solutions “could” get colder.

    This is where TK comes in and says that the 12Z runs were an aberration (poor initialization and/or they don’t have a clue) and that
    all will trend back to the Lakes Cutter solution with subsequent runs.

    I continue to monitor for changes. 😀

        1. To say it a different way, the ratings and popularity for college football is low in this part of the country. Much more popular in the south where there’s not much else to root for.

  23. Meteorlogist Steven DiMartino tweet on POSSIBLE weekend storm
    I think we get a true picture of this storm by Thursday 12Z guidance.

    2. IMO, getting a true picture of a possible storm just 2 days prior to the storm is not acceptable with today’s technology and resources, sorry

      1. To be realistic, I think we should have a pretty decent idea
        about 5 days out, NOT 2. So I totally agree.

        If it is that bad, why don’t we just resort to sticking our heads out of the window. Who needs freaking computer models!!!!

          1. MAtt, for when?

            For tomorrow night, about an inch or so, perhaps
            isolated 2 inch amounts.

            For the weekend, the 12Z run was too warm.
            NO snow down here. Some up North.

              1. I am not saying how much snow.
                Just reporting the Euro output.

                In fact, at this point I think
                we see ZERO accumulation, although there may be snow in the air near the end of the “event”.

              2. John, I notice you have been posting with authority of late. I was wondering what specific models or intelligence you are using to make your predictions. Thank you in advance

                1. I’ve been following Harvey he thinks it goes to midnight and its minor which we know that . Possibly 2″ north and west of Boston . Costing to 1″ in Boston. I’ve also been checking out some different things on line . Lastly I’m wondering on the timing . Did I pass. Take care .

                3. Oh. Hmmmmm. Mayb say that. It reads as if you are basing it on data. Thanks and all is well. Thank you again 🙂

  25. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet about POSSIBLE weekend storm.
    Classic “snow track” for weekend storm but not much cold air around. Mix most likely solution

  26. I would not put to much in the 12z runs but there has been a trend in todays models lets see what the 18z and 0z shows . Models will have a better handle of what is to come for the weekend after the clipper system/arctic front.

  27. college football is big for that school for around here and even then usually talk about college hockey….. college football is popular in areas that do not have an nfl team.

    1. Agree.

      I have always had a huge problem with college sports being too glorified to being so close to pros.

  28. I disagree, college football is big for about 3/4th’s of America, not just the south. The entire southern southeastern southwestern and even western America, even the upper mid west with be watching tonight’s nationally championship game with high tv ratings, the ratings will be its lowest only here in New England. Even here the ratings for college football have crept up the last decade, but they are far far from a good majority of America. I guess what I’m saying is the ratings are healthy not just in the south.

        1. I understand that it is big in other parts of the country.
          Well, they can have it. I’ll take Professional Football,
          thank you very much.

          It’s not unlike me being NOT interested in College Baseball. Give me the pros.

          Just the way I go, I guess. 😀

  29. re: Tomorrow night

    Even though we get enough precip for 1-3 inches of snow and it will be cold enough
    above, with those warm SSTs out there, especially to the South, we will be
    fighting BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES with temperatures. TOO WARM FOR SNOW!!
    until perhaps near the end, when some colder surface air moves in, but by then
    it may be too late.

  30. I’m compling JAVA programs at work and they take awhile, so I can come here while
    I am waiting. Hope I am not clogging up the blog. 😀

    Hey, one just finished. Let me check it out.

      1. Really close, but too weak of a coastal.

        Main snow just North of the Boston area, but this continues
        the trend. There is still plenty of time. It’s only Monday. 😀

  34. Music trivia (from earlier):
    “Deacon Blues” by Steely Dan, written about the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
    Sweet Home Alabama (Roll Tide Roll). Crimson Tide take home another title tonight.

    RIP David Bowie
    RIP Ziggy Stardust

  35. Tk!! I need a detailed forecast from 4:35pm-7:35pm Saturday to your best thinking. Ik it’s 5 days away, but any details are would be greatly appreciated. Thank you!! 🙂

    2. probably rain for you but could end as a mix then again why the heck would you ask for something like that 5 days out.

  36. GFS and CANADIAN real similar. keeps areas west of of i95 mainly snow. 6+ so minus 2 due to usually moisture bias of these models. so showing 4+ for the weekend.
    GFS continues colder trend. very similar to what the Canaidan show’s
    EURO is similar in placement of the systems but is warmer. with a snow to rain situation.
    EPS looks more like the gfs and could be even cooler than the gfs. I am really interested in the 00z runs now.
    I think the more likely solutions is out to sea or a mix type of situation.
    Euro seems to be wanting it to stay warmer but all the others are saying cooler. when have we seen this before.

  37. RAIN most likely and buckets-full at that. Hopefully BB will have the team practice with soaking wet footballs in practice this week. From what I have heard KC doesn’t turn the ball over very often.

    As TK has been saying, we are going to have to wait for February for any meaningful snow. We are still in El Nino’s grip and it is going to take the entire month to break free of it.

        2. With Charlie, who knows for sure? Regardless I would still say rain most likely for any Saturday plans or travel.

  38. Lean wet over white for Saturday. Upper air is not good. Streams don’t phase. Not enough cold air. I agree it may be “close” but this is not likely to be a set-up for snow unless I’m majorly missing something here.

    The irony: I originally thought that Saturday would be dry, and at least part of Sunday would be, and that this system would be delayed until Monday. However, if it had been delayed that long, it likely would have gone out to sea.

    The pattern we spoke of in December for this month is indeed happening. If you are a snow lover, you’ll need patience. There’s always the chance of a renegade surprise, but so far those chances have been few and not materialized to full potential.

    2. Thanks tk for the response, Ik it’s challenging 5 days away, yes I’m leaving for Bermuda Friday late morninh, but I will be able to watch live, Bermudas most watched is Boston station, suprisely!!! 🙂

  39. The pats I think need it to be dry for this game. I’m really nervous regarding Julian I fear they may put a lot of pressure on him being a.must win situation. Did I hear he is playing with some kind of metal plate .

      2. I do believe edleman does have a steel plate on his foot. If it is him…or whoever it is….the reason is because it has the potential to re-break.

    3. Both teams are playing under the same conditions. If wet conditions hurt the Pats they will equally impact the Chiefs.

  40. I am going to go practice driving tomorrow night, first time possibly in the snow driving, Any pointers?

      1. Seriously, when in high school our driving
        Instructor would take us out driving in the snow. Excellent experience.

        DON’T go too fast or too slow.
        Make sure you have some momentum going up hills. I can’t tell you how many times
        An idiot was driving up hill so slowly
        That the wheels started spinning and they
        Were stuck and everyone behind them.

    2. It is a great idea to do some practicing before heading out into traffic. There are plenty of “experienced” drivers out there who could benefit from some practice.

      When I took Driver’s Ed in high school, we went to an empty snow-covered parking lot to learn to recover from a spin. We would put the car into a spin on purpose and try to get out of it. One of the other students in the car made the mistake of turning the front wheels the wrong way. We were spinning around like a top until the tires caught on a patch of clear pavement. It felt as if the car was going to roll over!

          1. Drafted a number of years ago. He is a BC boy. Played with Blackhawks and then I think he went to another team and then to Bruins. He has been hot the last 6 games. What is amazing is that his brother went to BC too and now plays for the Rangers. So the brothers are playing against each other tonight.

  43. NOT FOR NOTHING, BUT the RGEM high resolution has .5 inch total qpf for boston.
    Further, it has most as snow yielding
    3-5 inches boston se, yes I said se.

    I am mobile else would post maps.

    This is most aggressive model.

    BB says coating to 2 inches for boston.
    He said r/s sets up I 95 and then cages to snow.

    We shall see.

  44. The time of year I took drivers education I never had practice driving in winter weather conditions. I got pointers from family how to drive in snow. I always keep a safe distance between me and the car in front of me in case they hit breaks quick. I had one bad experience coming home from work 5 years ago when it was snowing what seemed everyday in January 2011. I left work got caught in a whiteout on the highway could not see ended up hitting a snowbank near a guard rail. Thankfully I was not driving fast since I couldn’t see otherwise I would have gone through the guard rail. A guy coming off work tried pulling the car I was driving out but couldn’t. I had a shovel in the car dug the car out and took shelter in a hospital until daybreak since the conditions the road conditions were horrible and the snow was coming down so hard.

    1. Great story.
      Don’t think I can top it.
      In the latest 60’s I drove from Stiwe, Vt to Waterville Valkey, NH in blizzard conditions. White out at times.
      Went on not such a Nain road over elevated territory near lost river I think. Hit a 90 degree turn. All I could do was smoothly make the turn and hope for the best.
      Car easily negotiated the turn and we made it safely. Had the cAR gone straight, we would have been in a snowball and
      Not tumbling down a ravine.

    2. I agree with JPD…great story. Well done JJ and thank heavens you knew how to handle the conditions. Seems your family did very well by you!!

      My dad was an exceptional driver and spent most of his time in ski country. He taught me to drive. My Mach I with rear wheel drive and a big block engine never got stuck thanks to what I learned from him. I can’t count the times I drove in horrendous conditions from here to North Conway. I was young and had good reflexes. Now I’m older and smart. I have slowed down and hate driving in snow.

      Thanks JJ…as everyone knows I love memories. But I enjoy hearing memories of others as much. Thank you both for sharing

  45. i have my permit right now, and my dad has been teaching me everything, and he is going to bring me out, thanks for the info and stories guys 🙂

  46. Dr cohen’s blog is out. More cold coming.
    He states that if you can’t get excited about
    The blog now, you never will.

    1. It will take a bit longer but after some mild interludes we are going to see some impressive cold shots in the Lower 48 during the second half of Winter.

  47. I don’t think the cold and snow will end up as much as they think in Feb. just my opinion, just from seeing different long range outlets and different long range. Yes February will have more snow and cold than January,, BUT how can it not? I also think an early spring is in store, an no it’s not bc I want it, I really believe this will be the case.

    3. Most outlets have forecast the coldest/snowiest part of Winter this season to be centered around February.

      I’m curious as to your meteorological reasoning why you think early Spring. I’m not saying we won’t have it as it is possible, but I’m wondering what makes you lean that way, as I want to see if it’s the same thought process I have.

      Regarding late January / February, I’ll give you a hint: Pay very close attention to MJO.

      1. I believe and I could be wrong that you predicted an early spring this year I thought. I believe you Also called for a hot summer one that has not been seen in awhile , I think you said really hot.

        2. Yes, I have unofficially suggested that we may jump into Spring quickly, once it’s actually Spring. That is, we’ll see early-season warm interludes and possibly early heat later in Spring.

      2. I am, I just follow models, along with many what I think is reliable outlets, including this blog. It does want to become slightly colder and a slightly colder, but nothing like last year. So many say look at last year. It’s not gonna be close. Again just my opinion.

  48. 24 here and in Uxbridge. Gusty into the mid and upper teens here. Dew point here is 2. Daughter said -2 in Uxbridge. Do those sound right?

  49. Based on those future cast radars, the C-1″ the mets have for Boston are extremely generous IMO. By the time the rain/snow line gets to the coast, it appears that most of the moisture disappears. I would say a very thin coating at best and nothing more than fleeting flurries south of Boston.

    In order to get any serious snow via an Alberta Clipper for eastern sections of SNE in particular the clipper should pass just over or even better just south of the NE South Coast. When they travel to our north (as this one will) warm air gets dragged and what little moisture is available will be in the form of mostly rain. I suspect there will be little or nothing (white) to see on our landscapes inside I-495 come Wednesday morning.

    As TK has been saying, February will be our times for snow! 😀

    1. I agree 100%. However the guidance says otherwise as does Barry.

      In the past I have seen Mets and Guidance, even in cold Winters with colder
      SSts, it would still rain in situations like this. With the very warm SSTs out there
      and to the South, one would wonder how it snows. We shall see.

      Waiting on 0Z guidance.

      😀

  51. Reminder: The short range guidance is not taking ocean temps into account, and they are still warm, running 4 to 8 above normal both east and south of New England.

  53. I have to say I am amazed that the little snow we got a week or two ago is still around. We have had many days above freezing and even rain yet I still have small patches of the snow that won’t go away. I also see it persisting on some roofs where it usually melts pretty quick. That stuff was like glue!

        2. Under 1/2 inch will be recorded as zero on those maps.

          We still have it here. It’s a thin but solid coating in places that were not facing the sun.

      1. We still have snow here also. Some lines our driveway. A bit on roofs and some piles several inches at street corners

        1. Here in Boston there are still plenty of snow piles in parking lots and even up until Sunday there was snow in some yards and the corners of rooftops.

  54. TK – Speaking of the ocean temps currently well above average, would you say that they will likely remain above to some extent throughout the rest of this winter season regardless of any sustained cold? Am I correct that the ocean is difficult to cool even under the best of circumstances compared to fresh water?

  55. Tomorrow
    areas inside of 128 and south of the i95 . little or no accumulation
    north of i95 coating to 3 inches. 3 inch amounts isolated until until you get to New hamphsire.

  56. for the weekend event I bet areas east of i95 and inside 128 . and south of i95 will have very little in the way of accumulation. Increases as you move north and west of course. battle zone between the mass pike and rt2 and between 128/i95 and 495. which is actually very typical for this type of system.

  57. Sometimes I feel like if I said there was snow in Florida, you guys would say no there isn’t. I been up and down 128 and all around Boston providence, and even Worcester, there no snow. I’ve only seen a few isolated snow piles in Worcester, and if there’s anything around Boston it’s been piled up from many different locations

    1. Dude, I live here. And you are incorrect. I can go out and take a photo right now if you want proof. I have lights…

    2. Charlie – WeatherWiz, TK, Philip and I told you there are some piles of snow outside our homes or on rooftops and in the areas where we live.

      You decided we were lying….or hallucinating.

      I thought you were changing. You have simply added playing the victim to your repertoire.

      And yes, I know you will reply (if you bother) with an LOL or a smiley face or an It’s ok – but frankly, it isn’t. I understand you are projecting; however, I do not like being accused of lying.

    1. Nobody is saying they have more than 1 inch on the ground.

      Also, those maps have been known to be somewhat inaccurate. I worked with the state climatologist from 1987-2004.

  60. Personally I think other than a fe flurries after 5pm that’ll be it, maybe we’ll north and west gets up to an inch. Goodnight:)

  61. Good morning…. YAWN….. YAWN…..YAWN…..

    Some early morning thoughts.

    RE: Tonight’s clipper
    Despite what some models are predicting, I do not see much if any snow in the
    coastal plain. We are going to have a pretty fresh SE to SSE wind transporting in
    mild air from the warm ocean. Snow will be confined to North of the Pike and NW
    of between 128 and 495. Somewhere around there. Eric predicted 39 for Boston.
    Wouldn’t surprise me if Boston comes in at 41 or 42. 😀

    RE: Saturday Event

    It seems to be resolving into a a robust coastal, however, if you like snow, there
    will be a major problem. Surface temps are borderline with 850 MB temps WELL
    below freezing, yet it won’t snow. Why? Because of a potent low-level jet out
    ahead of the primary Lakes storm at the 925MB level, about 2,500 feet above
    the surface. The 925 mb temperatures will be about 43 Degrees F. If there is sufficient cold below that, there could be some sleet, but I suspect not. In carefully examining the temperature profiles, I do believe it will be above freezing from 925mb
    down to the surface.

    It may end with a rain/sleet mixture and a brief period of sleet. Maybe.

    We’ll still have to watch for changes as we are getting closer.

    GFS and CMC have similar solutions, although not exact.

    Here is the Euro surface map:

    http://imgur.com/NZnt0Qb

    Surface with precipitation

    http://imgur.com/ERyiRiX

    http://imgur.com/VG001BD

    Here is the 925MB temperature chart

    http://imgur.com/8MTTvdR

  63. MESSORAMA for Saturday.
    No high to the north so the storm to me would have to be strong to manufacture its own cold air and that may not be enough.

  65. Tweet from Jim Cantore

    Jim CantoreVerified account
    ‏@JimCantore
    Robust clipper to move through northeast today. RPM shows convective squall line w/HVY SNOW possible in spots !

    IF we get snow in Boston, that is how it will happen. 😀

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