Tuesday Forecast

361 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)…
TODAY: Clouding over. Precipitation arriving late day as rain coast and Boston area southward, mix or snow to the northwest. Highs 35-42. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain/mix ending as snow to the southeast, mix to snow Boston area northwest, all ending by midnight. Snow accumulation of up to 1 inch possible northwest of Boston with an isolated heavier amount possible in north central MA and southwestern NH, but generally trace amounts to coatings elsewhere. Lows in the 20s. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Isolated snow showers. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs around 25-35.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.
SATURDAY: Rain/mix likely. Lows in the 30s. Highs 35-45.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)…
Mainly dry with temperatures variable, coldest during the middle of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)…
Watch for a storm threat around the middle of the period. Variable temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal.

361 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. HRRR wants to gove Boston 1-2 inches and most coming in a 1 hour period
    around 7-9 PM tonight.

    Kind of looks like the squall line I posted earlier from Jim Cantore.

    1. Yet surface temperatures are above freezing. In fact the freezing line is
      NW of 495 towards the NH border? Map shows a really good SE flow rolling
      into the area. Not sure this model understand HOW warm the ocean is right now? Still question the snow, UNLESS this snow is from the squall with
      shifting wind and colder air? Will continue to watch.

    1. It’ll be to mild when rain begins later this evening, when it is finally cold enough most of the precip is up in Maine.

  7. See that’s the thing the squall line. Wherever that heavy ban is it’s going to comedown very hard . Does Boston get caught under this . I’ll be here all night I’ll let you know lol. What’s the projected high temp today 40, 41.

    1. Eric said 39. Radio said 39.

      I think 41-43. We shall see.

      NOT impressed with any so called Cold over night.
      WIMPY cold to say the least. 😀

  9. I’m not so sure about the projected surface temps. The cloud deck from the clipper is already rolling through so the sun isn’t going to be much help heating things up and that means we are really banking on the wind off the water to do the job. Cold air is not easy to displace as we saw with our first wintry event and I don’t think it will be for this one. Maybe a few miles from the ocean there may be an issue, but out to 128 or 95? I’m more excited about the weekend storm as that trends colder. The set up reminds me a bit of the last wintry event also, although we will have a stronger low. Remember how quickly temperatures fell last time with a very weak low and no real strong high to the north? The positioning and strength of this low on Saturday seems to be more favorable despite the temperature problems the models are presenting as JP has noted.

    1. Go for, Please read my post on the previous blog regarding the Euro for the weekend. It might put a damper on the “trending colder” theme. 😀

      As for today, I disagree. I think the ocean warmth will penetrate farther
      than you think. Time will tell. It shall be interesting to watch.

      1. The positioning of the low on the Euro would often suggest snow around here, but I get what you are saying and what the models are saying regarding temperature issues, I’m just not sure I believe them or maybe I just don’t want to believe them 🙂

        1. Oh to be sure. Doesn’t mean it will end up that way.
          Just reporting the model information. That 925 mb
          temperature will croak the snow, IF that materializes.
          Will continue to monitor future runs.

          I, too, love the positioning of that coastal.
          IF we had that arctic high to our North, it would
          be classic.

          This is fairly robust with moisture, so IF it could be snow, it would be significant.

          Here’s hoping….

  10. The projected `cold’ this week is under-performing, in my opinion. While the cold made significant impact on the upper Mid-West it’s only giving us a glancing blow. I’ll be in the mid-Atlantic states this weekend and it may reach 50. This winter is like a cream-puff, thus far. Not as wimpy as 2011-2012, but we’re mighty close in terms of temperature anomalies.

    2. Yesterday’s anomolies were +9, 4, 8, 7F because it was still so mild at midnight from the warmth of Sunday.

    1. There will be SOME. Just not for long. I’m also still waiting for HRRR to hit something reasonably accurately. Don’t think this will be the one but we’ll see.

    1. I was educated on the weather for that area from my senior coworkers in the private sector. When they are warm they snow alot and it is very typical for a strong El Niño to see this.

  13. More sun than short range models had. This means two things: 1) It will be slightly milder. 2) There is some good dry air upstairs which may delay precipitation by 40 to 80 minutes if it hangs on long enough.

  14. Pay attention to the 12z 12km NAM.

    So what happens is we get a burst of rain to mix maybe ending as snow SE, and a burst of mix to snow NW. The heaviest lasts probably good for 15 minutes in any given area. This is why there will be little accumulation. However a quick burst of heavy snow is enough to briefly mess up a road.

    Key: Where is the low tracking? Answer this and you will know why this system is going to be a Winter version of a Summertime frontal passage.

    1. Down the St. Lawrence or there about and dragging an arctic cold front
      into the warmed up moist air. 😀 😀 😀

      Is thunder snow in play?

  19. 17 degree temp rise at Bedford last 3 hours.

    Watch what the S wind does today. Not the direction you want to see if you want snow. 😉

    1. NEVER, even in the Coldest Winters with the coldest SSTs. NEVER NEVER NEVER!!!!! Almost always would RAIN here.

  21. This weekend …..

    Are we going to end up between a rather weak Great Lakes low and a strong coastal low that could trend a bit further OTS ?

      1. NO. It’s going to be a robust coastal with a slug of precipitation.
        What form is the question? Likely rain, but it’s close. 😀

    2. I guess my thinking for this was/is ….

      If the Great Lakes surface low is rather weak …………. then probably at 500mb, the upper level low is not strong either and thus, there’s nothing in the upper flow to keep the southern stream disturbance (coastal low) closer to the coast.

  23. storms always seem to happen when you have something plan. that is why I think we will get something this weekend. I have to work and I am going to try and get home on time for the game. So mother nature is going to try to slow that down 😉

  26. Reed Timmer
    ‏@reedtimmerTVN
    Several reports of thundersnow with the passage of intense snow band in Buffalo last 30 min! @breakingweather

  27. Tk will this clipper have any surprises for Boston . And as far pembroke do they see all rain and does it last a little longer down that way. If I’m here later which I should be I’ll report in , been here since 3am ugh.

    1. Why did they have people in now? At worst a quick burst of snow may coat the road. No surprises.

  28. Wind gust to 56kts in Buffalo with heavy thundersnow in the past hour. Could we call that a severe thundersnow-storm?!

    2. They said on news (I think Roker so may not be accurate) the great lakes are all water so more lake effect snow is expected.

  29. Euro still looks too warm for weekend, however,
    it shows a bit of a Norlun between primary and coastal with 925 and 850 mb
    temps crashing near the coast with precip still in the area.

    Will continue to monitor.

  30. looking at wondermaps it still puts down about 3 to 5 inches of snow on the ground for the area with the weekend system. Can you show what the euro is saying on the site you have> I might be seeing wondermaps wrong but I dislike wondermaps anyways.

      1. that was what it kind of looked liked, Looks to want to give accumulation to northeast mass at the tail end of the system

  31. Contrast: Last year the Great Lakes got off to an insane start with their lake effect snow season and then it shut down early because of the cold in January. Everything froze up solid. This year, no snow and very mild to start, but now they’ll have activity for the next few weeks with large ice-free areas and plenty of cold shots.

    Also, NWS tweaked their snow map down slightly basically to what we posted here yesterday. So we’re in agreement now.

    1. Nws is saying 1 inch or less Boston to Providence, with 1 inch 128-495. And 1-2 inches west and north of 495.

        1. I think we have the case of say Norwood gets a half inch of snow and Newton gets a coating to Quincy receiving just flurries. We shall see.

  32. It’s really looking like rain develops Friday night, and ending Sat afternoon. Would you concur tk? Does that timing look good or do you disagree? Thank you!! 🙂

    1. Friday night and Saturday morning for the steadier ofv whatever we get. Working on p-type, leaning wet but cannot rule out some frozen for at least part of the region.

  36. Watertown, CT Charlie and its snowing.
    The band out in central PA looks interesting. Will see what happens as it moves towards us.

    1. Heard the UPS guy tell our receptionist that there are flurries in Plymouth as well. Haven’t had a chance to look out a window yet.

  38. Getting dark here (yes I know we are approaching sun set in less than an hour)
    Dark low clouds rolling very rapidly!

  40. 2.5 hours from Boston. I don’t know how far to Albany since I have never been there.
    I am an hour 45 from NYC>

  44. South wind picking up just above. Loom at the lower cloud movement.

    We don’t get significant snow with a clipper tracking down the St. Lawrence Valley.

  48. TK sorry to ask but what do you think it starts and ends in our fair city? I won’t hold you to it, just a guess. Thanks.

  49. It looks like most of the light to moderate snow is moving north and east, as it travels east it’s more of a lighter flurry like snow. As it moves east will it play as a drying effect of sorts tk ? Thank you!!

  57. I’ll try being TK’s voice of reason regarding that 18z GFS run. Think about it; That low is literally in the absolute perfect location for a big SNE snowstorm, plus it is very strong. And yet, still mainly rain. Shift it west and obviously it gets warmer still, shift it east and, most likely, we lose the dynamic cooling necessary to change the precip type over or lose the precip altogether if it goes way east. It’s a lose-lose, regardless of what track it takes. We would need major changes in the modeled thermal profiles, and that is unlikely. The system physically cannot trend much if any colder, unless the low continues to be modeled as deeper, and there isn’t much room left to run there either.

    FWIW, I think Tom’s idea from earlier has a lot of merit, and the 18z GFS is a step in that direction.

  58. One thing I have noticed today- the GFS and to an extent the Euro ensembles are showing a fast moving but potentially strong “follow up” low not long after the Saturday event. Cold air won’t be an issue with that one. Question is, does it get strong enough/close enough? The GFS is still mainly out on its own with that one, although as I mentioned the Euro ensembles hint at it as well.

    Probably the old “cold and dry…” scenario, but we’ll see 🙂

    1. I tend to agree. It’s not often I say this but the CMC may have the best handle on the Saturday system right now.

      1. I just found it.

        Perfect pattern for this set up, never considered it.

        Hopefully one of those bands ends up over my house, should be quite the scene.

  60. Looks like the precip area is shrinking somewhat, I don’t think much accumulation will happen with this small batch. Still a mix of rain and snow here. I’m more concerned about the actual front between 7-8pm.

      1. :). Snowing here. Just noticed. I need a retune. I usually notice the first flake. Hmmmmm. That brings on a whole new meaning 🙂

      3. TK if you are interested, I am hosting a radar reading 101 class tomorrow at 10:15 am. There is still room 😉

        And on a serious note, a dusting on all surfaces here.

    1. My wording was: “Precipitation arriving late day as rain coast and Boston area southward, mix or snow to the northwest.”

      No surprises going on.

  62. Caution for those watching radar… Still very dry near the ground which means that the echoes look more impressive than what is reaching the ground. Talked about this earlier today. We’re also in the process of energy transfer. What is coming through now is getting ready to ignite a new low in the Gulf of Maine tonight. The squall line far to the W will be dead and transfer to the back edge of the current area which will be responsible for the burst of heavier precipitation near the end of this evening event.

    The remains of the stuff far to the west may result in an overnight snow shower in some areas.

  66. If there was more cold air in place over SNE, this would have been quite the show.

    Keep this set up in mind.

  67. Most of the accumulation comes with the squalls in eastern ny? Snow intensity has picked up, I would still consider it light, everything is just wet as of now. Thinking ground is very warm for mid January.

    1. If it happens they get one burst before 9PM. The stuff that’s in NY will probably die out before it gets here in the wee hours. And the main roads in Boston may never really get that snowcovered unless the burst is intense for more than several minutes.

  70. Band over Providence is producing a mix of rain and snow with a wet bulb temp of 34, there you have it folks.

    1. I actually just talked to a buddy in Warwick, they said its raining moderately, so the snow rain line is right over providence

  71. We have some sticking on cartops and a few grassy surfaces, moderate burst came through, back to light snow

  72. Not sure if anyone misunderstood… The rain was/is most likely near the coast and from the immediate Boston area through southeastern MA. I said mix to snow elsewhere.

    The reason I kept accumulations to mainly coatings to around 1 inch was because of the duration. Anything over 1 inch will be very isolated.

      1. Late? I gave a window of 7 to 10 then tweaked it back to 6-9 for Boston and immediate suburbs. That doesn’t mean it starts at exactly 6 and ends at exactly 9. It means the event, which won’t last long, occurs during that time frame. Everything is pretty much taking place as expected save for the very slight adjustment in timing.

  73. I feel like this is behaving exactly like tk and many had thought. 1 inch or less Boston to Providence. 1-2 inches north and west of 128. 🙂
    Any suprised tk????

  74. It’s funny, the weather enthusiasts seem to think ehh only an inch or less? Then when they receive 3/4 an inch there suprised. And while it’s happening folks are like omg it’s accumulating!!!!!!! Lol

  75. All surfaces light costing here. Except for one area in front of our house where son in law always parked his truck (recently traded for a car). That area has no snow and is giving us the Heebie jeebies

  76. My half inch guess earlier was a bit overzealous, we’ve just surpassed that now; no worries on the rain/snow TK, knew we’d be right near the edge here. Maybe a local jackpot (relatively speaking of course), here on the cold side of the heavier banding.

  77. This event for sure won’t be remembered by the amounts, but very brief intense snowfall rates may be realized for some over the next couple hours.

    A good time to watch the radar, constantly evolving band of precip over SNE further enhanced by warm SST south of LI. Heaviest axis of precip moving east now, should narrow and intensify.

    Impacts Boston area by 8PM. Where it does snow hard for a time, roads will become a mess.

    1. Watching the evolution on radar is fascinating. As of 6:25PM what we need to watch for Boston is over RI.

      1. Worcester is getting absolutely slaughtered

        KORH 122323Z 30004KT 1/4SM R11/2200V2800FT -SN FZFG VV003 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 P0005 T10171028
        ^^^^

      2. I’m really actually enjoying it too, I call this a Charlie snow. Not much accumulation, not causing any problems, and it’s pretty, AND it will be gone by the weekend!!!! It’s really perfect!!! 🙂

        1. I wouldn’t say not causing any problems. Maybe not there yet, but in some areas the snow is intense, and all it takes is a few minutes of that with people on the road and you have issues. They’re short-lived, but they’re issues if you’re out there

      1. You should be getting a bit more now but nothing too serious yet. It’s the second band that will cover things over.

        1. Yes. If the intensity is enough, it doesn’t much matter how warm the roads were. They cool fast. I have wet roads here in Woburn but that’s because my visibility has not dropped below 2 miles yet and the snow’s been quite light all along. I do expect some covering of the main road I’m next to when the heaviest band comes through here.

  80. 39 in Marblehead according to my thermometer, gotta get that down quick if I want to see any accumulation.

        1. The northern part of that first band is crapping out right over my head. I still have light snow with 2 miles vis. Whatever I get is going to come from the second band.

  83. It tried to get moderate here…tried…and failed. Back to light snow. Wet pavement. Slightest dusting on unpaved surfaces.

      1. Indeed I have been. Heaviest stuff along 495, heavier stuff (relative to here) down your way, and near Boston.

        Wouldn’t it be ironic if I get more snow from an overnight squall than this evening………………..

  84. Top of the hill in Rsoindake has a complete coating. Coming down thick big snow clusters. .
    Sadly a major accident on Washington Street. They closed Washington from Eneking parkway down to possibly down to metropolitan. Pedestrians possibly involved.

    Be safe. Avoid driving if possible. Anticipation is the key word if you need to be on the roads.

    1. It’s funny. Just looked at the Nexrad radar and it has Rain/mix over my area.
      NOT SO.

      And I am surprised that it is snowing and not raining.

      One just never knows. 😀

      1. Extremely borderline case. You are set to get some of the heaviest band in a while if it holds.

  87. Visibility from Woods Hill has improved to over 3 miles. I can see the sign for the Marriot in Burlington from here. That’s just over 3 miles west of me. The 3 radio towers that sit just north of the Burlington Mall near Vine Brook are about 4.5 miles from me and I can almost make them out.

          1. As far as Woburn is concerned, the heaviest you are going to see from this evening’s stuff is now – or the next 1/2 hour, then it’s done.

            The only thing left after that is to see if that snow squall line in NY makes its way all the way to eastern MA in the form of a snow shower or squall in some areas. Some of the short range guidance has it hanging together at least somewhat, and given it’s the actual arctic cold front, we can’t ignore it.

    1. They are pretty bad. So what’s the latest total now?
      coating to 2 inches? coating to 1 inch. Nothing to sub-nothing-3 inches to nothing??????

      2. They have settled on a band of 1-2 that basically rings 495 but now includes SW of Boston, and <1 everywhere else.

        Not a MAJOR change but they kept moving around the 1-2 inch area, probably in response to radar trends.

        As Scott pointed out recently, and as I alluded to earlier without using the actual words Scott used, this is a convective event. It's similar to a warm season warm sector event ahead of a cold front.

    1. If you lost the intensity then that’s not a surprise. The lower atmosphere has warmed and you needed intensity there to get the snow.

        1. It didn’t stop where he is. You need to stop trying to get under people’s skin please.

          Just report the weather you see, truthfully.

  96. Pembroke : precip started as light rain.

    Last 10 minutes, drove west northwest about 5 miles to Rockland/Hanover border where the precip is steadier and it’s a mix of rain and snow.

    1. Have to wait 10 minutes for daughter’s dance class to finish up and hoping heavier precip holds off, but as I type it’s picking up and so is the transition to snow.

    1. Its the same thing everytime, the folks that call in high amounts always call in high amounts, the folks that call in low amounts always call in low amounts, the night I talked to Bouchard he agreed completely

      1. That’s been the same story for decades. I knew the state climatologist for years. He always had a good laugh about how predictable it was.

  101. My wife wanted to go out, but she was worried. I told her that they have already
    done a preemptive salting plus it will be all over very shortly. Looks like we’ll be heading
    out soon.

  102. The forward speed ruined it’s amazing potential.

    -RA at 39 degrees in Marblehead

    Bring on the miracle band

  103. This baby is over folks, it’s like a high, you don’t want it to end, but this is over!!! .8 here in na

        1. It’s doing just as expected. Short duration, but with some intensity. This is convective snow, not that overrunning stuff you get north of the low center.

      1. I am not looking at the radar but this just feels like we are getting more than I thought…like I was assuming I wouldn’t have to shovel but not looking good.

  105. I just want to say tk great forecast!! It came through slightly earlier but all and all great forecast.

  107. 1.6″ of snow here, tapering off now. Really fun event, just been standing outside, back and forth between radar and just watching the big flakes, and a quick shoveling job. As good as it gets!

      1. Figured we would be by about 5:30. Just right place, right time. Overall well forecast and well modeled, but obviously tough to hit all the micro details, just like summer storms.

  109. Tk when did you change the sides to that color blue looks like the blue I have used on my blog 😛

  113. couldn’t take pictures since I was driving but wow. it was coming down, thought it was just because it was my first time driving int he snow but no it was actually come down hard. Everything is coated.

  117. As soon as this ends at my location (by 8:30), I’m going to head out with my plastic shovel and give the walkways and stairs a quick scrape down. It will be “mild” enough for several hours that when I do that the rest will just melt. I’m hoping that when the arctic front arrives overnight, even if it does have a quick dusting with a snow shower, most of that will blow away and the wind will dry out the pavement before it can really freeze.

    1. Perhaps it will end as snow there…
      Winding down here. We did snow pretty well for a while, but never truly heavy. Eyeballing it, it’s under 1/2 inch. I’ll grab an official measurement in a few.

      1. Those good dynamics didn’t stick around as long as the models wanted them too, all headed for the Gulf of Maine. Temp only made it down to 37.

        Next!

  119. The precip intensity did the trick in Pembroke, Hanover and most of Marshfield, where it was starting to coat the lawns.

    However, here in eastern Marshfield, a rain-snow mix with no snow coating anything.

  120. Son in law just shoveled out walks and driveway while new (2.5 months new) puppy (1.5 yrs) Blu played in snow like a kid.

        1. Soon …. Did the “home” inspection and passed that Saturday. I have a sneaking suspicion we’ll get the dog this weekend.

          Oh, my heart broke for my neighbors tonight who had to put their 14 and 1/2 year old dog down. It was the right thing to do, but it just reminded me of how I felt the day we put my wife’s dog down (he was 15). I couldn’t look out the back window into the back yard for at least a week.

  121. As far as snow amounts in north central MA, Eric Fisher is your winner with 1-3 inches on his map. 2.8 inch amounts have been recorded at Auburn, Holden, and Ayer.

  122. At least an inch if not a little more.
    We are out and about. NEWTON RIGHT NOW. Roads were all snow covered.
    I press the LIKEBUTTON!
    BEAUTIFUL out there. Snow has quit in Newton.

  123. Brookline is looking very pretty this evening! The grass and cars are all white, but the teated roads have remained just wet throughout. Love this kind of quick snow event! It makes the world look like a snow globe.

  124. Looked at hrrr loop. Say good-bye to the squall line.

    Also look at 18z Nam. Very robust coastal
    Near coast of NC at 84 hours. Still too
    Warm but watching
    Waiting on 0z.

    Of note: on sports hub on way home
    A met tweeted them re wweather for
    Saturday. Met was followed by barry. Don’t
    Know who it was. He said n’or easter
    Winds 40 mph. Rain to mix to snow.

    Hmmmm

  125. Drove from north Attleboro to Dedham, rt 1 seems to be ok, salt is working and drizzling the whole way. Few slushy areas, but melting fast because of salt. Temp is truck started off at 34 and when in Dedham went to 33.

  126. Before we left I cleaned off the car. It was coming down so hard there was 1/2 inch on roof when I was done.

    LIKE Button.

  129. I chuckle…. Since its been one of those winters, 1 inch and even less and it’s crazy on blog. I enjoy!! But I do chuckle 🙂

  130. Traffic maps south of city so not look bad. Looking more congested north of city.

    We have a light cover even after shoveling

  133. I did see many salting, but no one plowing, of course if they wanted money, I actually talked to a plow truck driver at the Mobil I stopped at in Walpole, and he laughed and said I so want to put the plow down and start charging. 🙂

  134. Winding down here. Shoveled quick and made sure the cars were cleaned. Hopefully I wake up and everything is in the same condition!

  137. I’m not liking these reports I’m seeing on the Patriots on social media. Something about Chandler Jones overdosed on pills at Gronks house??? Hopefully not true! Gronk wasn’t at practice today. If true must have been quite the rager as Belichick was sporting a black eye at the press conference.

          2. You know how the news is here, very invasive, and there are even patriot haters amongst us, aka shank shaunnasey, always trying to bring In negativity,,, when I lived in Dallas during there glory days, they had many many new casters that hated Dallas that always tried to make up stuff. In the end it always looked true but wasn’t as bad as they reported, yet they want to grab the attention of viewers, I get it 🙂

                1. Sweeping under carpet is sad on all levels. It is why other teams are not the pats. BB has never put up with this….you should know that. If he sweeps this or anything, my opinion of the pats would drop significantly. He has always cut anyone who was in question.

            2. Dallas seemed to always sweep it under the rug, even when supposley a teammate stabbed another teammate in the eye, right before the NFc championship, no one heard about it, but it was totally made up, he had a black eye during the game, everyone believed it, the patriots are in uncharted territory with taken over. 🙂

      2. How do you say one minute you have not heard a thing and exactly a minute later say you heard it was a hoax?

  138. Not for nothing but every model I look at
    Has a sizable storm for saturday.
    Still likely rain to perhaps mix and some snow. Watching very closely.
    Hoping for a miracle.

  139. I have to agree with Elliot Abrams, looking like a rainstorm for Boston points south. Wouldn’t suprise me though if locales well north and west receive accumulating snow. 🙂

  140. Exactly 0.5 inch here in Woburn. Melted off the main road and just a little slush left on the side roads in the area. My plan to scrape the driveway and walks worked perfectly as they are just wet now and should start to dry off as the wind picks up later, minimizing the ice-over.

    1. Went out to store to pick up milk, roads were all clear, I know I’ve said this at least 3 times already,,, but thanks for a great forecast!! You were dead on again!!! I don’t know how you do it, I thought we weren’t gonna get nothing more than a little coating but just under an inch final total, called in already 🙂

      1. I’ve been leaning wet over white for your area for a while. I still feel that way, but the jury’s out.

  141. Albany NY is going to experience a wall of snow and strong wind in a little while with the passage of the arctic cold front.

  142. Does Friday look like it could be in the mid 40’s tk? Sorry for so many weather questions, just curious.

          1. Well you said “many” and the GFS is just one model. I hadn’t quite seen the same info you had.

  143. 00z NAM (32 km, 12 km, and to some extent via extrapolation the 4km) are starting to advertise more strongly that the streams stay separate for the upcoming system Friday night and Saturday. Ironically the NAVGEM had this solution on its 12z run. 😉

    IF that scenario pans out, we’re looking at a mainly light to moderate mix to rain event Friday night and early Saturday with a big separation between a Great Lakes low and a subtropical jet low passing well southeast of New England, leaving this area basically in “no man’s land”.

  146. I hope chandler is not but gronk was there as well so big issues with this indeed. Though there should be no need to worry since people get away with a lot more crap in the nfl. 😉

      1. we shall see, i am ok if the team does something I will not be ok of the nfl decides to do something, since they have let so many people go with out all but a small smack on the wrist.

  147. 00z GFS has a strong low going right over the benchmark. But seems to be just a lack of cold air. So just rain around these parts.

  148. Charlie you got your wish. Storm is going to be to close. In this set up we need the storm further out to sea especially with no high to the north/northwest.

    GfS stopped its trend of getting colder. Most models now have
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011300/gfs_mslpa_us_16.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011212&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=133

    I am still a little hopeful to see what tomorrow’s runs show

  150. Doesn’t bother me in the least if we get a “benchmark” storm and no snow. The pattern is fascinating and it’s a great study in contrast to other patterns. As a meteorologist I try to learn constantly and observing the various patterns as they unfold is the best set of lessons one can have.

    In my opinion, there is no such thing as wasted cold air. Cold/dry is cold/dry. If we’re cold and warm up for storms like the 1978-1979 Winter, so be it. It’s just a pattern. It won’t last forever. 🙂

    1. coming from a skier at least it is not like 2012 winter. when it was warm and no snow. It is at least chilly enough for snow making.

      coming from a snow nut and more importantly a skier, there is nothing like natural snow.

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