Wednesday Forecast

175 Comments

3:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)…
El Nino continues to rule. And the pattern remains very progressive with distinctive split jet streams that don’t want to get together. We’ll be ruled by the polar jet stream for the next few days with a shot of very cold air today, a weak disturbance possibly producing a few snow flurries Thursday, then a warming atmosphere by Friday. When we make it to the weekend, a pair of low pressure areas, one coming along the polar jet into the Great Lakes and another evolving quickly in the subtropical jet stream over the southeastern US will remain largely separate as they move northeastward. They will make a feeble attempt to join via the upper air but will fail in completely doing so. We here in southeastern New England will be caught in a zone between the two, though the storm from the subtropical jet may be close enough to bring some gusty wind Saturday. The precipitation associated with the passage of this unsettled weather will likely be largely in the form of rain, though some mix is possible. By Sunday, colder air will return as the storms depart via the northwestern Atlantic and eastern Canada.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind W 15-30 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 14-21. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Mix/rain mostly morning to midday. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)…
Dry and cold January 18-20. Fair and milder January 21. Risk of unsettled weather returning January 22.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm risk January 23-24. Fair weather returns January 25-27.

175 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you tk!!

    I thinks it’s great news that the Friday night Saturday event will be wet, and not white. 🙂
    Enjoy the day!!

      1. I was fearing I would wake up to that but thankfully not. Good call on doing a quick cleanup last night! I am the only one on my street that did and everyone else is paying for it today ha.

  4. Good morning and what an early update.

    It seems the Euro and NAM have your idea of the storms remaining largely
    separated Saturday, while the GFS and CMC have them more joining or at least
    the coastal coming awfully close. Looking more and more like the Euro and Nam
    have the better handle on the dynamics.

    CMC has a 963 mb bomb just off the coast and the GFS has a 969 mb bomb just off the coast.

    NAM has 975 mb way off shore

    Euro has 978 mb way off shore

  6. Thanks TK. We definitely had another squall here last night. A very wintry scene outside this morning. Storm total 2.0″.

  8. “Feeble” is the theme of this winter. TK used the word in his forecast. Thanks again for your write-up, TK. The winter of 2015-2016 is feeble across the board: the cold isn’t that cold, the snow isn’t anything to write home about. We’re stuck in an El Nino rut. Split between wanting to be cold and snowy and wanting to be mild and rainy.

    1. You have described it well. We can’t win.
      If it can’t snow, then I am all for ENDING Winter (feeble as it is) and move
      directly to SPRING.

      How much will we pay for this next month and possibly into part of
      the following month? Ahhh that is the question.

      1. Interesting that TK mentioned that there is still a possibility of something on the 24th. That is when it all started last year. It is my son’s birthday and we had plans for dinner that we moved up a few hours due to the storm that was moving in.

        1. Wouldn’t that be something. Not that it could ever
          compare to last year, but what about a mini snow blitz??

    1. Are you talking about this coming Sunday? I can’t open the link since it is blocked here at work. Silly, I know.

      1. Yes, this Sunday. Here is what NWS said:

        GUIDANCE SIGNALS H5 CUTOFF LOW MOVING SE OUT OF
        CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUNDAY. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE
        WHETHER ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND HOW CLOSE THIS MAY PASS TO S COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY.

        btw, in case it is not clear, H5 indicates at 500MB. (ie the chart
        I posted) You can see the cutoff low in Canada as described.

  11. 12Z NAM has the Satuday system almost totally separate from the Lakes System.
    Only delivers about 0.25 inch qpf. This sucker is WAAAAY off shore. Robust at
    975 mb, but that is up from previous run.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016011312/namconus_ref_frzn_us_25.png

    Let’s see IF the GFS catches on or not.

    Btw, this completely supports TK’s discussion above.

    ALSO, Tom should be beginning to feel better as he called this days ago.
    Nice job Tom.

    1. GFS says
      5 storm opportunities.
      3 of 5 are rain events.
      2 of 5 are out to sea.
      all big storms. all of which lack the cold high to the north.
      MY ugh meter is at a 10 right now.

  12. I would rather a fish storm Saturday then have a storm near the benchmark with rain.
    All snow lovers UGH meters should be a 10 if a benchmark track happens and should just be shaking their heads saying what do we got to do to get a bleepin snowstorm this winter.
    Meteorologist Ed Vallee tweets about Saturday system
    Incredibly, the weekend system is WARM cored, typical of tropical systems

    Even with a track SE of Cape Cod, thermal profiles are incredibly mild Saturday. 925mb (2500ft) temps well above 32.

    However maybe some hope for us snow lovers late next week. Another tweet from Meteorologist Ed Vallee
    Beginning to eye the 1/22-23 period for potential wintry weather in the east….Ensembles certainly on board.

      1. Why Concerned? Even if it is something, so what. Why the concern? Are you concerned because there is the potential
        for a BLOCK BUSTER? If so, NOW you’re talking.
        Why would you be concerned about a routine storm, EVEN
        if it is all snow. It’s New England. Big Deal.

        So please share why the concern?

        Inquiring minds need to know. 😀

  14. Gonna see Mike Wankum for a while this afternoon. I’ll try to grab a photo of us if possible. 🙂

    One of my friends and former coworkers just joined the ch 5 weather team. 🙂

    3. Surprised I haven’t seen yet as this is all that I watch . Wankun is a great guy and a scituate native . He owns two family homes there and is s very hand on guy. I’ve never met him but a woman from work is neighbors with him.

      1. Perhaps pushing 6 inches even with it that far off shore.
        if it comes closer, we’re looking at a foot or more.

      2. Thats about as close as it gets. After that everything flattens out and ejects it OTS. Gives us a solid 4-6″

  18. Ironically, we may run into a similar problem if it trends much closer; there’s still no high to the north. Air is colder to start with, but bring that much further west and rain it will be in the coastal plain.

    1. Perhaps. But then it is so intense, it will bring cold air down from above.
      As long as we keep the winds NE to N and NOT NE to E.

    1. we do not want it any closer, even though it is only 3 to 6 inches any closer to the bench mark means we get rain. nothing to keep that cold air in place.

  20. I was so happy to see a coating of snow on the ground waking up today. You could tell its been a bad winter so far when a snow lover like me is happy to see a coating of snow.

  21. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee about the second POTENTIAL system.
    Have been watching Monday event but hadn’t bit…until now. If it occurs, would be a huge win for the GFS. 6z ENS:

  22. I was curious about the current state of El Niño.

    Googling El Niño today, I found cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

    The current SST anomolies are :

    Niño 4 : +1.4C

    Niño 3.4 : +2.6C

    Niño 3 : +2.7C

    Niño 1 and 2 : +1.8C

    In both the tables and diagrams, it’s clear El Niño peaked a few weeks ago.

    However, only niño 4 is showing a quick drop.

    I do think the easing of El Niño through the rest of winter into Spring and summer may be slower than projected, at least if the current slow easing continues.

  23. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee about that POTENTIAL second system
    Will advise, however, GFS Op on its own with this one so take with a grain of salt. It does make some sense, though.

  25. Tweet from meteorologist Gil Simmons. When he says worth watching something COULD be brewing as he does not hype things and is an very good meteorologist.
    now Monday looks to feature a “closer” storm worth watching!

  26. Saturday: Big separation. AM light rain then done. Will adjust forecast above later.

    Sunday/Monday: Cold enough but storm OTS. Big wind Monday.

  27. TK your comment earlier about being a bit concerned about the 23rd 24th got might attention. I know its way out in the future but what do you see that has you a bit concerned?

  28. Just took a quick peak at reliable models, and thankfully are quiet, except for Saturday’s rain. Heading out Friday noontime. 🙂

      1. Lol I get them in all the same places you guys get it, I don’t have any special different links than anyone else. I look at them all and then I explain what I think there saying. There’s no magic in this 🙂

  30. Perhaps during the time frame of the 23rd and 24th, with the AO and NAO both returning towards neutral or even slightly positive, this might allow a southern stream system closer to the coast ????? (Guessing 🙂 )

  31. 12z Euro further east on storm 1, and has nothing for storm two. Safe to say it’s one of the largest differences I’ve ever seen at this range on the GFS and Euro. FWIW, the GFS ensembles trended west also, though most remain east of the operational. I think it’s all or nothing though. Out of 20 members, about 13-14 of them are far enough east and/or weak enough for little/no impact. The other 6-7 or so are closer and very strong, sub 970mb with a couple sub-950mb. But given lackluster support elsewhere, I’m inclined to agree with TK on OTS.

    1. Agreed. The 12Z GFS was nothing more than a tease.

      Like I said earlier, IF the Euro had it, I’d be on board.
      Euro has NOTHING. DIDDLY SQUAT! ZILCH!!!

      How can there possibly be that much disparity???????

      WOW!

  32. Euro is cooler at the 850 mb level and 500mb what is it saying for the 250? I do not have that link.

      1. thanks, for those that are saying the euro does not have that storm, it actually does, just to far south to do anything for us

        1. Looked at every frame of the EURO.
          There is NOT a single hint of any system for the 17th.
          NOTHING.

          Where are you seeing it and what hour?

    1. And FWIW, UNLESS things change and they sure could, I do NOT like
      the positioning of this system nor do I like the Upper Wind configurations
      at all. 2 more frames to come out on the Euro.

      1. It’s ANOTHER FREAKIN LAKES CUTTER!()@&#!(@&#&!*(@&#

        However, there is a “hint” of a coastal redevelopment, but
        even that might be too little too late.

        1. It is too late. 850 mb temps are a TORCH over our
          area. Will watch as it is 10 days out and anything can happen, BUT they way this season is going, you know
          what it will be.

          YET ANOTHER LAKES CUTTER.

          It’s not the season of el nino, it’s the season of the
          WITCH!!!(@(#&*(!@&#!*(@#&*(!

      1. Yes, I’m obsessed. It’s a problem, I know. I’m seeing a shrink next Thursday. He’s Inuit and will be able to talk me through my issues.

  35. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011312&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=101
    well in the gulf. then seems to travel up to bermuda and merge with a storm in the far north atlantic.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011312&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=421

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011312&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=421
    broad low well off of our coast

  37. JJ and JpDave. Sorry for not replying sooner.

    1) My phone was messed up.
    2) I was hanging out with The Wankum for a few.

    My concern is in a general sense. I think during the period of late January 22 through sometime January 24 we have our greatest shot at significant snow so far this season. But even with that elevated future risk, it’s going to have to pan out just right.

    1. Was a faithful Wankum viewer back in the late 90s (I think it was when he was at the old Channel 56). He was a runner back then – maybe still is – and I saw him at a Boston marathon. Probably 1997. Seems like a very nice person. Infectious smile.

            1. Well that may happen at some point this Winter. Not that unusual for an El Nino Winter to have a mid season or late season biggie.

    1. Logan is the ARMPIT of Massachusetts.

      Many sections of the City had at least 1 inch if not 1.5 inches. 😀

  44. The declination of the sun is the same as November 29th.
    Tk does the Patriots game look warm? I’m thinking 30’s? And the rain will be long gone? Concur? I’ll be in Bermuda watching, but I want to know game conditions. Thank you!!

    1. Synthetic Pot as far as I know is not used for medical purposes. In fact synthetic pot can be very dangerous. That being said it’s legal status is very hazy. So I’m not sure if he will face any penalties (outside of being stupid). I’ve heard reports that Gronk was held back just as a precaution…another report said he was down in RI visiting a little boy with cancer…although I think that was Monday. Anyway this team is going to be under a microscope (right or wrong..wrong for the most part imho).

    1. There will be no violation on something like that. They actually sell it in a few stores in Massachusetts, it’s banned in Boston, but you can get it at many gas stations in and around Boston.

      1. Unless you have some info I have not found, pot is not legally sold in MA. One ounce or less is punishable by a $100 fine Even medical marijuana needs jumping through hoops to obtain. And for each it is a federal offense even if medical marijuana is legal in MA.

        I spent a tremendous amount of time with doctors and folks in the legal field researching medical marijuana. The way this state has handled it is repulsive and inexcusable. My opinion. Many who would benefit it are unable to obtain it.

          1. You can get it right now, I bet you can buy it in Framingham at the gas station. I’ve seen it hanging behinds counters in various stores 🙂

          2. It’s not mariguana, it’s leaf like material, and they spray chemicals on it, it’s suppose to give you a little buzz like mariguana, but of course if any of this is in food etc etc it can make you very nervous and have anxiety.

            1. In Massachusetts, the Legislature recently passed a state ban on such synthetic cannabinoids, which are also known as “spice.” Though the products are often identified as incense and potpourri, authorities say they are widely smoked or brewed into tea.

              Boston Globe article 2014

        2. Vicki there was Something they calked synthetic and referred it to pot that was legal and was sold in convenience stores and the kids or adults would get high also called spice . I saw a piece on it but don’t remember when.

            1. Vicki its sold in Billerica smoke store and the mobile gas station. next to the tobacco. I do not use any of this crap, I do know people though who do.

              1. Interesting Matt. I am finding lots of info, some of which I posted above. There are federal laws making many of the ingredients illegal. I found one interesting article where Westfield police prosecuted under MA law chapter 2 section. 18 which forbids the intentional inhalation of “fumes of any substance having the property of releasing toxic vapors, for the purpose of causing a condition of intoxication, euphoria, excitement, exhilaration, stupefaction, or dulled senses or nervous system, nor possess, buy or sell any such substance for the purpose of violating or aiding another to violate this section.”

                I would think that alone would apply to jones.

            2. I’m not sure if it’s legal or not legal, but I do know it sold in many stores in Massachusetts. I don’t do it, but I do know you can buy it in many stores.

  49. I am not agreeing with pot ,think its stupid and retarded but, its not as bad as tobacco. Gronk was down in RI. He has nothing to do with it. Chandler was having a party, I have a feeling someone he knew had that crap at the party and left it on the table, shit happens especially at college parties. One bad egg can get the good people get in trouble,

    1. Good post Matt but he did have a reaction to something as he walked to the police station and it warranted a trip to the local ER. The crap that’s out there today . Hey let’s go to 711 and grap some spice . I believe that’s what it’s called as I now remember chronicle doing a pice on it.

      1. which could mean that some of that stuff could of been in brownies or other food which weed can be put in and not know of it.

          2. Lol Bill came to the press conference today with boxing gloves, he had all the media laughing histerically 🙂

  50. According to Harvey, the 1.2″ at Logan to date is the 3rd latest “inch”. He did not mention the top 2 years but I would be curious if they were El Niño years as well.

    1. Personally and it’s just my opinion, I think it’s close but no cigar. Again just my opinion. It is a watcher

  53. Replying to earlier inquires about the weather for the Pats game…

    Kickoff temp: lower 30s.
    End of game temp: upper 20s.
    Weather: Variably cloudy. Passing snow shower possible.
    Wind: W to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

  55. I couldn’t remember how long we had all been on WHW. I thought 3-4 years. TK you have run this blog and grown it for five years this past December. I know you know this but five years WOW.

    I remember how excited and honored I was the day I was invited to join.

    Congratulations and a belated happy anniversary. And a very heartfelt thank you!

  57. The Celtics just played there best 4th quarter this year. I believe they went on a 12-0 run to end the game, along with 4 steals, all of this in the final 3 min’s.

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