Thursday Forecast

139 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)…
A weak disturbance means clouds and a little light snow this morning before more sunshine returns. Warming of the air mass both at the surface and aloft brings more cloudiness later tonight and Friday. Our well-advertised “separated storm” blows through Saturday morning with rain, maybe some mix in north central MA and southern NH for a short while. Another piece of energy coming along the jet stream late Sunday may produce a touch of light snow or snow showers as it will have turned colder during Sunday. A shot of very cold air arrives Monday along with wind.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with some very light to light snow around parts of the region this morning possibly leaving a light dusting then turning mostly sunny midday and afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy – some limited sun. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Morning and midday rain, possibly some mixed precipitation far northwest of Boston. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a little light snow at night. Temperatures cool through the 30s.
MONDAY: Sun and clouds. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)…
Windy/cold/dry January 19-20. Tranquil but cold January 21. Storm threat later January 22 into January 23.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)…
A more quiet pattern arrives for this period, starting cold followed by a milder trend. One passing storm system, likely rain, may occur about mid period.

139 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Well was hoping to be leaving my job today and starting my rich and famous lifestyle as a powerball winner in a place where it never snows but here I am again…unable to propel out of the seemingly shrinking middle class haha.

  5. We now have the dusting on the east central side of Woburn. Snow should be done here by 8:30AM

    1. Yeah it’s building up more than I would expect from
      Flurries. Had to dust the car off just now and it’s still coming down decently.

  6. Thank you TK. Dusting with light snow here. I heard our resident owl again this am. What a great sound to waken to

      1. I do also. I have seen one here in the decades we have lived in this house but it was a fly over. I do not recall ever having one live in our woods. My son in law hears the male and female calling to each other when he takes the dog for a walk/run. There is also a new screaching type of noise we think may be the babies calling for food.

  8. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    re: possibly leaving a light dusting

    DONE DEAL. More than a dusting, a rather nice coating.

    I retired last evening with Eric’s words: “A few flake around in the morning”
    No shit Sherlock! more than a few flakes.

    This is a veritable snowstorm for this Winter. 😀

    Still snowing here. Vis “about” 2 miles or so. Very difficult to determine from my
    office window. I’m really good when it is near a mile or less.

  9. Ah CRAP!!!!

    Sad news to report: British actor Alan Rickman, who starred in the Harry Potter movies and “Die Hard,” has died.

    He was one of my most favorite actors!! My wife remembers him as the colonel
    in Sense and Sensibility and Love Actually. I liked his role in Die Hard and Quigly Down Under. He was an excellent, excellent actor!!

    We will miss him. I will miss him

    2. So sad. Another life lost far too young. Millions will miss him….of all ages I think. I remember him in Robin Hood also—a favorite of mine.

  14. We had a subtropical storm that in retro analysis became an unnamed minimal hurricane in January 1978. Not the first time.

    Not a big surprise in this pattern.

    Scott first mentioned this potential about 10 days ago.

          1. LOL ….. Given the outflow and the atmospheric conditions it probably has the next 24 hrs, I’d not be surprised if this attained major hurricane status.

            1. Has anyone seen The Simpsons episode (years ago) when a hurricane hits Springfield? There are fights in the supermarket over the last can of squid.
              It is so funny.

  18. Googled Azores current weather ….

    Got about 8 reporting stations (I know very little about the Azores, so I truly don’t know if these are even real reporting stations)

    Per weather underground, there is a Horta, Azores …. Which has a hurricane advisory. They have a NNE wind gusting to 31 mph, it’s only 58.8F.

    So, that probably says Alex shouldn’t intensify much more if that is the air being entrained into it.

        1. Keep in mind this is the time framed
          for which TK was concerned about a possible
          snow event, so he is not likely to say bad run.

  20. Hello!! Thank you Tk!! As many on this blog are looking for the next snow event, I’m typically looking for the next mild stretch. Many on here will dislike about what I’m going to say. I really think Jan will end on a mild note. Whoever said the cold would not have staying power this year was 100% correct. I think many days in a row to end January with highs in the mid 40’s. 29.2 degrees. Enjoy the day!! 🙂

      2. All respectful, truthful and factual comments are welcomed. They have always been on this blog by the vast majority. I’ve never known an opinion to not be welcome either. There can be confusion if a person forgets to state it is an opinion which is an easy thing to do on both sides.

  24. Seems the 12z EURO is closer too with the Saturday coastal low.

    Still rain probably.

    Im more intrigued by its 96 hr, 1004 mb low in Massachusetts Bay. Plenty cold at 850mb.

    I don’t have maps, I wonder if that puts down some snow ????

      1. Thanks AceMaster …. I wonder if this is a system that might increase in its potential the next few days ??????

  25. We have about 2 inches remaining also. It is a spectacular day with bright blue sky and snow covered lawns and roofs.

    1. It’s brown down here. On the other hand, when I’m not at work, I can still wear sandals !! Always in beach mode. 🙂 🙂

      1. The map shows it brown from Boston or close to Boston along the coast then south of Brocton and Taunton to providence are bare ground. Then just inland from there very light accumulations of 1 inch or less. Then as you go further inland toward 495 it climbs to 2 inches.

  26. North Attleboro has a very light accumulation, it’s more scattered and not widespread, shadow areas. Where the scattered snow accumulation is, it’s coating To half inch.

  27. Oh Boy, is the Euro ever looking JUICY for the 23rd,24th.

    A few more frames to get to see where it is heading. Either up the coast
    OR into the Lakes. Stay tuned.

    1. Ends up on the SC coast, loaded and poised to come up the coast.
      500 mb and 300 mb look really nice.
      I guess we’ll know more with 0Z tonight and 12Z tomorrow. 😀

      1. What’s closer to New England …..

        Hurricane Alex or ….. Where cold air is projected to be on the EURO in 240 hrs ????? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  28. Ok, what is going on here?

    Now the NAM has a closer coastal hugger passing over the Outer Cape!!!
    Not only that, it shows three (3) distinct centers. A dying Primary and two (2) coastals,
    one over the Cape and one well off-shore due East of NC????? Did it have a brain fart,
    OR is EL NINO taking effect???

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016011418&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=045

    Of course, still way too warm for any snow, but it’s going to be stormy almost
    right up to game time, but it should end prior to game time.

  29. Couple points…

    * The models were going to have trouble and still have trouble with figuring out where and how many low centers to develop. Just think of it as a long rope between the Great Lakes low and whatever develops offshore, which becomes stronger, but in a very warm atmosphere. This is not phasing, it’s just a “long distance connection” of the troughs. Bottom line is, we get mainly rain, and it’s done around the middle of Saturday.

    * Sunday night system is going to be mainly offshore. Upper level energy may pop a bunch of snow showers around here Monday however.

    * Maintain the idea of the best snow threat yet, in terms of overall atmospheric set-up, from late January 22 to early January 24. This had been a mostly-hidden feature to most model viewers but doing a little investigation and looking for subtle hints, one can pick these things out quite a few days in advance. Still, things have to come together right. This one just has a head start in that direction.

  30. Oh yes, one more comment for Charlie’s sake. Those snow maps, while DECENT, are not always accurate. They rely on observations which often have large holes in them.

    They often show bare ground where there is indeed snowcover. Sometimes the error is large in that it is shown as bare when there is more than 1 inch there. Also, you can have a solid covering of less than 1 inch in an area depending on the recent weather, and the map will show bare if there are not enough observations showing 1 inch or more. So take those bare ground areas with some flexibility. If one of your neighbors is telling you there is snow in the ground, there is snow on the ground.

  31. Acemaker, I am kind of disappointed in your comments from above. I really am. Just remember this in the next 10 years. That is all
    This has indeed happened in the past just look for it to happen more often

      1. Yes, which comment.
        As I recall, he only said that the media will start hyping
        the hurricane event and make outlandish comments.

        I actually agree 100%, notwithstanding my views on climate
        change.

        1. I agree too, and my main reason is regardless of what is or is not happening, any real message is lost in hype.

      2. AceMaster says:
        January 14, 2016 at 9:23 AM
        I’m surprised the climate change alarm hasn’t gone off yet. Red Alert!

        this made me want to go through the freaking roof. Its not each and every individual event. there will be anomalies just expect these events to happen more and more often . There is a reason that the past 5 years have seen the top 4 warmest years on record. There will be those who become dry and hot. those who become cool and dry those who become cool and wet. And since this was an attack, I will counter it. My generation is stuck fixing years of environmental issues made by you generation. There are those that climate change is real and that humans are aiding events and we need to do something about it. (Vicki to name someone there are others) then there are those that do not. Saying there is not enough evidence to support it. That there needs to be more evidence and more time to really see. Its right in front of you. Studies have been done. Carbon dating. Etc. Within the next 15 years there will be no sea ice in the summer in the Arctic. We are all ready in the wake of the next mass extinction, Animals are not able to adapt quick enough to changing environments that should happen much slower. and like I said last time something like this came up. Only difference Humans are the asteroid.

        Want me to go on?
        thank you for those who knows what is at stake and know that humans are responsible. Yes climate change is a natural occurring event, the problem is the speed at which it is happening.

        2. Matt, you are well educated and are going to make an amazing positive impact in science.

          I hope that in concert with that, you will leave your mind to differences of opinion and alternate possibilities.

          After reading your post above, you give off the impression that it would be difficult to have a conversation with you on the topic if you didn’t share your exact views.

    2. Matt when Ace made the comment, I intended to reply but got sidetracked. The media does hype and I believe because of the hype it does the fact that the climate is changing a disservice. People see hype so think everything about climate change is hype.

      1. I agree with that assessment Vicki, but to generize everyone talking about climate change and using an event as an example or evidence being shut down by the deniers makes me upset. There are those who hype then there are those who do not but have to deal with people that say they are hyping when they are indeed not.

        Like I said in my long comment above. Thank you 🙂

        1. IDK Matt. It was an offhand comment. We have no idea how Ace feels. He said media will hype. That’s all. And it will. And Ace is pretty much part of your generation.

          Like Tom I am always impressed by your passion and concern. Your generation will indeed have to fix at the very least the mess we have made of this climate. It is important to understand there are other views that are important to hear.

  32. Went skiing for the first time this season. I have to say wachusett does an amazing job at snow making. It is not the natural stuff which is way better and if a skier tells you it is not, they are lying, conditions were not horrible like many would think decent for artificial snow. Helps when the sun beats down on it actually to soften it up a bit.

    Weekend system Friday night/Saturday. quick mover. some snow northern areas with rain mixing in . rain showers south. relatively lighter stuff.

    snow showers/light snow sunday night and monday. Euro has this and the gfs. Little or no accumulation.

    Next weekend is up in the air. some models say there will be cold to work with others say not. The one saying there is not cold air has been more right than wrong lately 🙁

  33. FYI Gronks knee is hurt . When hurt it who knows but has missed two practices this week and the second today was spent in the hospital getting an injection in that same knee. He is on the injury list and pats expect him to play but also stated day to day . Hearing reports from the Foxboro police it sounds like Johnson was tanked to the max , high as a kite . But good job admitting you messed up today kudos for that . That spice must be damn good .

  41. Regarding model solutions for the January 22-23…
    Like most systems, you’ll see varying solutions between runs of models and between models themselves of course. Nothing new. I don’t expect this to be any different just because I feel we have a higher snow potential here. The models don’t care what kind of precipitation is going to fall where. They just guess at it, in response to their ever-so-slightly to slighty-more-than-ever-so-slightly flawed programming. So be it. My job is to weed out the bullcrap and harvest the best crop of info I can and hope the salad is good. 😉

  42. South Shore Kid, the posts went into moderation because you started spelling “kid” as “kidd”. Yes, WordPress is THAT picky. 🙂

    1. I think models can be both help and hurt. If you use them wisely, they are always more of a help though.

      Personally, I am certain that without the model guidance and the application of the science itself then that is when my own forecast would suffer greatly.

      1. All I had to do was look at the calendar. It happens every year at this time, but if you want to get really technical it happened today (January 14). 😉

  48. 00z GFS wants to take the system threatening later next week and make it earlier, faster, lighter, and further south. We’ve got many more solutions to see before the actual one becomes apparent.

  49. This tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee will make all snow lovers frustrated including myself
    What a waste of a PERFECT low pressure track Saturday. Rain expected when in most situations it’d be heavy snow.

  51. Good morning.

    In quickly looking over the charts this morning I have become nauseated!!
    Please excuse me while I clean up the barf!!!

    Absolutely GROSS model output, GROSS!!!! PUTRID…

    LET SUMMER BEGIN! What a JOKE!!!!

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